Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want either TBH. The cost for Bichette would be weird because of the opt outs and I think his swing doesn't really work at Fenway. 

I'm open to Bichette, at a substantial discount, but it might be too costly, and complicated.  Just like with Bogaerts, Devers, and some non-RS players, the GM looks like a dunce if he has to eat $100M on a deal he just signed.  And he might be a head case which we can't fix.

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm not proposing Story for Lindor straight up. 

The ideal would be the money would equal out enough this year to allow the Sox to not cross the next LT threshold, and in return they could give the Mets a real piece for Lindor. 

and I know you DON'T CARE but I ran it through BTV anyways and they accept. 

Trevor Story and Henry Godbout for Lindor.  Although I'm sure it would take more moving pieces than that. 

What else would it take to get a deal done for Lindor? 

Story, Godbout, __________

For

Lindor

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What else would it take to get a deal done for Lindor? 

Story, Godbout, __________

For

Lindor

Why would the Mets want Story?

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Why would the Mets want Story?

Don't ask me. I'm not proposing the trade.

[vegasbob]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

SF wants to extend Arraez. Crochet and Anthony don't have a timetable for a return.

Don't really know about Early. With the added innings, are you not concerned about future injuries to Tolle or Bennett? 

Duran, Mayer and Bello all saw their stock plummet. They wouldn't fetch much at this point. 

Trout's contract would be a nightmare. The reason you sign a long term guy like Trout is for the first few seasons, not to get him for the back half of the contract. 

I am not a Brayan Bello fan, but he could be a surprise factor for either the Red Sox or another team.   He has shown that he can pitch at the MLB level, and is apparently durable ( AVAILABLE)  . His contract is not a burden to a competing team. I think you can get a hitter for him to take over DH duties.

OR

The Sox may well need to keep him because the Tolle-Bennett-Early train may get stalled worse than just Early soon.   68 more starts needed ,that is 13 each per 5 starters plus 3 openers., then the playoffs .   Crochet is effectively missing over 60% of this season with no real prognosis on a return.  If Suarez can pull his groin midseason, he can do it again on any subsequent start. 

Bello may actually be the best Sox trade chip but also the key to sustaining the pitching staff through the season end.    Final note, if they do not want to quit on the season, they will also keep Gray  who otherwise could get you a hitter.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

I am not a Brayan Bello fan, but he could be a surprise factor for either the Red Sox or another team.   He has shown that he can pitch at the MLB level, and is apparently durable ( AVAILABLE)  . His contract is not a burden to a competing team. I think you can get a hitter for him to take over DH duties.

OR

The Sox may well need to keep him because the Tolle-Bennett-Early train may get stalled worse than just Early soon.   68 more starts needed ,that is 13 each per 5 starters plus 3 openers., then the playoffs .   Crochet is effectively missing over 60% of this season with no real prognosis on a return.  If Suarez can pull his groin midseason, he can do it again on any subsequent start. 

Bello may actually be the best Sox trade chip but also the key to sustaining the pitching staff through the season end.    Final note, if they do not want to quit on the season, they will also keep Gray  who otherwise could get you a hitter.

If the Sox want to hold onto the young arms long term, they will need Bello down the stretch to take on a bunch of innings. I'm dubious on the pitching holding up, but we'll see. 

[vegasbob]

Here is another factor .  Accept the fact that Breslow thinks ( and maybe) the  highest IQ guy in the room, not necessarily the best baseball  man.   He also has a big ego, I am guessing. 

The team he put on the field , for whatever reason, worst in MLB through 80 games, half a season .  Then, his BOYS came alive and made an improbable run to change the perception.  Breslow right now must feel motivated and rewarded by the "process".    He will not be a willing seller in bulk because he must validate his earlier judgements .   

He will be a buyer if the Sox get to August 1-3 and can maintain position .    To do anything else would be to admit it was a bad roster, or use the injuries to Anthony, Crochet, Story etc as an excuse for the season.  

Craig will not want to  admit anything, so he will try to buy a bat or two, maybe a reliever and hope the Anthony-Crochet team can play .  He will let the players on the field  succeed or fail .

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What else would it take to get a deal done for Lindor? 

Story, Godbout, __________

For

Lindor

I wouldn't give them anything.  I'd want the Mets to give me $50M, minimum.  Probably more.  He'll be 33 in November.  No thanks to paying him $34M at ages 35-36-37.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Why would the Mets want Story?

Why would the RS want to pay Lindor $170M for seasons 33-37?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

I'm not in favor of midseason deals.  With 9 straight wins,  now 2 gqmes below .500 and 1/2 game behind the wild card, I want Breslow to be cautious unless he can get something really good back for Contreras or Gray.  

Why keep all three?  The Sox pitching is the best it's been in decades and Gray already has 12 qualiity starts.  You can never have too much pitching, especially when it's far and away your strong suit.

Contreras is our best hitter with an OPS of .921, 20 dingers, and 61 rbi's.   

We will get nothing for Duran. Until Anthony returns--hopefully before next season--Duran is useful.  Two different managers have seen fit to play him every day despite his abysmal .601 OPS.  He has 5 assists and no errors.  He is 4th on the tgeam in total bases, 2d in dingers, 2d in rbi's, 3d in runs scored, and 1st in SB's.  

I agree these Sox are unlikely to get to 90 wins, which is the usual standard for a good season, but I don't care.  I like what Breslow has done so far, including replacing Cora, of whom I am a big fan.  I blame the weak hitting on the lousy contracts for Story and Yoshida, neither of whom has earned his pay at the plate.   Yes, he le the Cubs outbid him for 5 guaranteed years of Bregman, but right now that looks pretty smart because I like Durbin plus Contreras is outhitting Bregman.  

Telling it like it is, Max. Thanks!

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm open to Bichette, at a substantial discount, but it might be too costly, and complicated.  

I think I've agreed with about 99% of what you've said in the last few months, but this is one area I'm 180 degrees away.

I suppose if the Mets pay 90% of his contract or take back Story and or Masa, maybe...

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What else would it take to get a deal done for Lindor? 

Story, Godbout, __________

For

Lindor

Campbell or Bello and Cespedes over Godbout?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't give them anything.  I'd want the Mets to give me $50M, minimum.  Probably more.  He'll be 33 in November.  No thanks to paying him $34M at ages 35-36-37.

Agreed. Maybe Story, Masa and Campbell?

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Why would the RS want to pay Lindor $170M for seasons 33-37?

They wouldn’t. Suggesting Lindor to the Red Sox is nothing more than a brain fart.

[notin]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Why would the RS want to pay Lindor $170M for seasons 33-37?

To play shortstop?

[notin]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Why would the RS want to pay Lindor $170M for seasons 33-37?

He has been worth over at fWAR over the past 4 seasons. It’s obviously a very unlikely trade, but if the Mets kicked in $10mill for each remaining year, it probably works out for Boston better than free agency will…

[Old Red]

Just now, notin said:

He has been worth over at fWAR over the past 4 seasons. It’s obviously a very unlikely trade, but if the Mets kicked in $10mill for each remaining year, it probably works out for Boston better than free agency will…

Huh? OMG! ASCIH.

[JoeBrady]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

He has been worth over at fWAR over the past 4 seasons. It’s obviously a very unlikely trade, but if the Mets kicked in $10mill for each remaining year, it probably works out for Boston better than free agency will…

That's what I mentioned in one of my previous E-mails-$50M.

[moonslav59]

Is $10M a year enough?

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is $10M a year enough?

It's enough where I could shrug my shoulders.  There is every chance that he has entered his permanent decline, but he is declining from a 5.8 bWAR last year.  He also only missed 15 games in the four previous seasons.  Does anyone know if he is a good clubhouse fit?  Or a good Boston fit?  Weak Fenway production?  Blocks Arias? 

I'm not convinced either way, and I think we could do well pursuing smaller pieces without the longer term costs in $$$ and/or prospects.  Adell, and others have mentioned Ward and Steer.

And MLBR mentioned the have gotten calls on Steer.  Hopefully we are one of them.

[moonslav59]

My worries with Lindor is not just his age and decline, but his defense is down to about average and falling, too.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My worries with Lindor is not just his age and decline, but his defense is down to about average and falling, too.

There is a chance his dip in offense is just a blip.

fWAR for Lindor

6.4 in 22

5.5 in 23

7.7 in 25

 

 

[drewski6]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Only Schmidt and Steer are from teams likely to be sellers.  Some of others might, but theyre all too close to call.  Pitt is already trying to buy from Boston, for example.

Steer figures to be more likely available than Schmidt, who is in the midst of a breakout season in an aging Giants’ infield.

Not many obvious sellers, and teams like the Royals, Athletics and Mets have no obvious players they’d deal.  The Angels have Jo Adell and Jorge Soler they could part with.   The Padres are probably on the buy/sell fence but will give you Jake Cronenworth in exchange for a simple “please”.  If they sell, Ty France is likely available as well.   KC has nothing.  Colorado never seems to make deadline deals.  There are no useful Mets’ bats to be had. 
 

From this list, Steer is my personal favorite.  Now what Cincy wants for him is another matter.  Ty France might be the next best…

What about Luis Arraez

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, notin said:

He has been worth over at fWAR over the past 4 seasons. It’s obviously a very unlikely trade, but if the Mets kicked in $10mill for each remaining year, it probably works out for Boston better than free agency will…

Pure 100% conjecture on my part, but Lindor just strikes me as the type of guy who is going to play well into his 30's and still put up 4+ war seasons.  I know he's having a down year this year but I'd happily take him as a come back candidate. 

 

[Hugh2]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

I'm not sure you go from a 6.4/5.5/7.7/6.3 to a .5 WAR guy because of just regular decline. 

He had offseason surgery and was rushed back and has suffered from it.  His mechanics are off, the fact that he's playing is fine enough for me.  The bat and defense will follow if he's healthy. 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What about Luis Arraez

Does he meet your power requirements?

I like Arraez as a hitter. There are rumors about the Giants extending him but until they do, he should be in play.

But my post was largely limited to RHH bats, although I did mention Cronenworth in passing, opening that door…

[notin]

7 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pure 100% conjecture on my part, but Lindor just strikes me as the type of guy who is going to play well into his 30's and still put up 4+ war seasons.  I know he's having a down year this year but I'd happily take him as a come back candidate. 

 

He’s no Mookie, but he is in that tier of player. Obviously it’s unlikely the Mets even move him and they don’t have anyone being him that I know of.  I’d take him as well as long as it’s not a crazy trade, but I don’t think it will ever come up…

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Pure 100% conjecture on my part, but Lindor just strikes me as the type of guy who is going to play well into his 30's and still put up 4+ war seasons.  I know he's having a down year this year but I'd happily take him as a come back candidate. 

 

Sort of where I was going.  Lindor was worth nearly 8fWAR last year.  If the Mets paid $50mill of his remaining $170mill, he would have to be a 3 fWAR player on average to justify that trade.  He is going to decline, but will he decline below 15 fWAR over the next 5 seasons?  If he does, it’s most likely due to injuries keeoing him off the field.

All that said , I’ve heard zero buzz about the Mets even thinking of trading him…

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

Does he meet your power requirements?

I like Arraez as a hitter. There are rumors about the Giants extending him but until they do, he should be in play.

But my post was largely limited to RHH bats, although I did mention Cronenworth in passing, opening that door…

I have power requirements?

[drewski6]

Maybe we can bait and switch Spencer Steer out for Elly De La Cruz