Early Trade deadline deals the selling Sox should make

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

With a guy like Duran, you might have to know him personally.  Everyone knows his issues.  But no one really knows where his head is at right now.

I think I know, and getting banned right now for saying it might be a blessing, but I will refrain.

[southpaw777]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

For Gray, I think it has to start with the Cubs.  They've lost 6 SPs, and their playoff position is precarious.  And they have guys I like, FWIW.  Conrad, Kepley, and Hartshorn from the 2025 draft all look promising.  Wiggins (2023) also, though I am suspicious why he doesn't have more IPs.

17 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think someone will jump.  There are always GMs out there that thing they are the smartest one in the room.  And RPs are always traded at the deadline.  While all of them have longer records than Guerrero, none of them have a 19/1 K/W.

And none throw 103

[southpaw777]

Can we trade Mayer at the deadline too? This kid has been a complete bust. Not much value but he’s friggin useless…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

Can we trade Mayer at the deadline too? This kid has been a complete bust. Not much value but he’s friggin useless…

They could, but he's not really going to bring in a haul. He's more of a guy you move in the offseason.

[Hitch]

23 hours ago, notin said:

And no one is selling.

I think the closer market could be surprisingly active this deadline, with several top contenders having serious question marks there.  Cubs, Cards, Phillies, White Sox, Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays all looking for possibles solutions/upgrades.  Maybe a few others…

I assume few are looking to buy just yet too, with the draft coming up taking their attention. That would bring some semblance of sense to the fact we haven't yet sold off. If Gray or Chapman get injured pitching over the next month I'll fly to Boston and slap Breslow into next year myself. 

Contreras is the really interesting one. The whole league is looking for RH power and we've probably got the best asset available in the league. But, we trade him and then we need to fill that hole ourselves in the winter, at a time of lockout, and a dearth of players available on FA. It would need to be a very enticing offer, and we may well get it. 

As soon as the draft is over - sell it all. Restock the farm and hopefully we get a high pick next year. 

 

[moonslav59]

Did we pay Gray anything to get him to waive his NTC?

Gray has to be the prize summer trade, for us. It's essential w e get something useful in return.

I would not trade Chapman, unless someone blows us away.

T Guerrero & Coulombe can be traded, but don't expect anything more than what we gave up for Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims a couple years ago.

Not sure what Bello would bring back, but his upside value to us might be worth more than what we can get. I'd mention the salary relief, but expecting JH to spend what he saves and then some is a lost cause.

Everyday players...

On Duran, I doubt he gains more value by wintertime, so I would probably just take the best offer. Someone has an OF need big enough to settle on him.

Yoshida has between zero and maybe $1-2M a year value, but it's time to move on and give someone else a shot, even if that someone else is not very promising.

We could trade one of our 3 catchers, but that should only be done, if we are certain to add one, this winter- a much better one! (Trading for William Contreras would be a nice plan.)

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Can we trade Mayer at the deadline too? This kid has been a complete bust. Not much value but he’s friggin useless…

I'd be open to trading anyone, but for the right price.  The guys like Duran, Mayer, Slaten might be more valuable to us than they would be on the trade market.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I assume few are looking to buy just yet too, with the draft coming up taking their attention. That would bring some semblance of sense to the fact we haven't yet sold off. If Gray or Chapman get injured pitching over the next month I'll fly to Boston and slap Breslow into next year myself. 

Contreras is the really interesting one. The whole league is looking for RH power and we've probably got the best asset available in the league. But, we trade him and then we need to fill that hole ourselves in the winter, at a time of lockout, and a dearth of players available on FA. It would need to be a very enticing offer, and we may well get it. 

As soon as the draft is over - sell it all. Restock the farm and hopefully we get a high pick next year. 

 

I agree on Gray and Chapman, but it's difficult to know the best possible 'sell by' date is.  Would you accept 90% of their value today, or 110% of their value a month from now, with the inherent risk?

IRT Contreras, too many articles are overlooking the need to replace anyone we trade.  With current year players, trade all of them.  With those here thru 2027, I'd be open to trading them.  Past that, I'd have to be talked into trading them

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not trade Chapman, unless someone blows us away.

Why not?  He won't be here next year, unless we sign him as a FA.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Why not?  He won't be here next year, unless we sign him as a FA.

Not if they can get him to 40 IP and the contract becomes guaranteed. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree on Gray and Chapman, but it's difficult to know the best possible 'sell by' date is.  Would you accept 90% of their value today, or 110% of their value a month from now, with the inherent risk?

I'm not sure we're guaranteed to only get 90% now/soon. Make it known you're going to trade them soon and teams needing what they need to contend for WS and pennant races as well as those looking to solidfy wild card spots should bring all the market you need. Especially as you're offering them another month of them both (which could be decisive in Chapman's vested option clause).

Teams do get desperate at the deadline, but there's virtue in overpaying to get someone early, too.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd be open to trading anyone, but for the right price.  The guys like Duran, Mayer, Slaten might be more valuable to us than they would be on the trade market.

We shouldn't just hand anyone away that has more than 1 year of control.

I'd like to not "hand away" anyone, but we have to take the best offers on one year guys- all fo them.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Why not?  He won't be here next year, unless we sign him as a FA.

We may have control of Chapman, next year.

 

• 2027 salary guaranteed if Chapman pitched 40 innings in 2026 and passes post-season physical exam
• 2027 option increases based on 2026 Reliever of Year vote:
  • $1M increase to $14M for winning BBWAA Reliever of Year or MLB Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of Year
  • $500,000 for second or third place in BBWAA Reliever of Year or finalist for MLB Rivera/Hoffman Reliever of Year
  • $250,000 for fourth or fifth in BBWAA Reliever of Year
  • $100,000 for sixth-10th in BBWAA Reliever of Year

[southpaw777]

So, does anyone think that after a four game series with a beat up Yankees team, it has changed the view from sellers to buyers? I really don’t, but I’ll play along with the buyers view…

if Breslow decides to be buyers because of this series he would have to acquire a legit bat and bullpen help. I would actually look for a second closer. Anything short of getting those two needed parts to be legit WS contenders,a we need to sell and look to the future…Like I believe we still should.
be prepared to lose a LOT of good prospects for short term fixes. After all, it’s the trade deadline. 

Im just not sure we are legit contenders without those parts, so it’s one or the other. I don’t think with so many teams who are already better, are looking to improve further, and are willing to open the wallet and let go the players to do it, that we would stand a chance bidding against some of those teams. I don’t think our owner is willing to go that far. 
Will Crochet be the same when he returns? Will Tolle and Early be able to handle the workload? Bennett is on a strict innings and pitch count this year, so he won’t be on the roster, and  Breslow traded away all our pitching depth…i love seeing them play with some passion, but still, I just don’t think this is the Sox year to go all in. Not yet anyway. I’m not convinced after one good series.

[notin]

58 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

So, does anyone think that after a four game series with a beat up Yankees team, it has changed the view from sellers to buyers? I really don’t, but I’ll play along with the buyers view…

if Breslow decides to be buyers because of this series he would have to acquire a legit bat and bullpen help. I would actually look for a second closer. Anything short of getting those two needed parts to be legit WS contenders,a we need to sell and look to the future…Like I believe we still should.
be prepared to lose a LOT of good prospects for short term fixes. After all, it’s the trade deadline. 

Im just not sure we are legit contenders without those parts, so it’s one or the other. I don’t think with so many teams who are already better, are looking to improve further, and are willing to open the wallet and let go the players to do it, that we would stand a chance bidding against some of those teams. I don’t think our owner is willing to go that far. 
Will Crochet be the same when he returns? Will Tolle and Early be able to handle the workload? Bennett is on a strict innings and pitch count this year, so he won’t be on the roster, and  Breslow traded away all our pitching depth…i love seeing them play with some passion, but still, I just don’t think this is the Sox year to go all in. Not yet anyway. I’m not convinced after one good series.

After this series?  No.  I want it to, but no.  Not yet.

Now if this series kicks off an 18-1 Morgan Magic 2.0 run before the deadline, I would certainly switch my position.

But if the Sox “selling” gets some young MLB talent already in the majors.  Like let’s say the Sox swapped out Marcelo Mayer for Dalton Rushing in a deal that arguably makes sense for both teams.  Is that buying or selling?

[moonslav59]

If the deadline was tonight, I'd buy. I would not trade Arias.

I'd look at trading farm pitching for a bat upgrade or two.

Close call.

[southpaw777]

1 hour ago, notin said:

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the deadline was tonight, I'd buy. I would not trade Arias.

I'd look at trading farm pitching for a bat upgrade or two.

Close call.

Any suggestions? I’d love a big bat in the minors. We had Tibbs, who’s looking pretty good in LA. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, southpaw777 said:

 

Any suggestions? I’d love a big bat in the minors. We had Tibbs, who’s looking pretty good in LA. 

We need a real deal bat. Tibbs is an unknown value at the big league level.

With so many teams still "in it," I'm not sure who the sellers will be or how we match up with their wants and needs, but here is a run down of the worst teams and who might help us with our offensive needs:

Top players by 2025+2026 OPS- some are or may be untouchable or not in JH's price range. Under .800 are selected players of interest...

COL .863 Rumfield/ .843 Goodman/ .842 Moniak

KCR .841 Witt

NYM .935 Soto/.790 Lindor

DET .814 McGonigle/ .807 R Greene/.770 Torkleson/ .756 G Torres

SFG .818 Devers (LOL)/.746 Chapman/ ,728 WAdames

LAA .823 Trout/ .780 Neto

CIN .805 S Stewart

AZ .887 Carroll/ .851 KMarte/ .809 Perdomo

WSH .847 Wood/ .780 CJ Abrams

PIT .809 Horwitz/ .809 O'Hearn/.800 BLowe

BAL .854 Alonso

TOR ,869 Springer

MIN .886 Buxton/.798 Jeffers

ATH .980 Kurtz/ ..851 Langeliers/ .817 Cortes/ .815 Soderstrom/ .806 Baldwin

HOU .953 Yordan/ .829 Pena/ .796 Paredes

MIA .848 Stowers

____________________________

My short list of reasonable targets:

CJ Abrams SS (WSH) High salary lowers return costs?

BLowe 2B (PIT) Probably the most bang for the buck

Paredes 3B/DH (HOU) 1.5 yrs of control

Jeffers C/DH (MIN) 3 month rental lowers cost

Torres 2B (DET) 3 month rental

KMarte 2B (AZ) High salary lowers return costs?

Adames SS (SFG) High salary lowers return costs?

_____________________________

BTV accepts:

Phillips, Romero & Alcantara for BLowe, O'Hearn and Comp A pick

or

To BOS: Abrams & Jeffers

To WSH: Mayer, Buxton & Wong

To MIN: Ford, Soto, Witherspoon & Valera

or

Duran & Witherspoon for Paredes

or

Casas and Monasterio for Torres

 

 

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

So, does anyone think that after a four game series with a beat up Yankees team, it has changed the view from sellers to buyers?

Just in my personal opinion, it makes a difference.  I understand the logic of selling.  That guys can revert or get hurt.  But part of being a fanatic is being a fanatic.  I'd rather look forward to another month of hope than modest improvements for the future.

IRT whom I'd get, I'd be less aggressive now, but would ramp it up if we continue to play well (and vice versa).  Right now, I'd be looking at SF.  Devers is hitting well, but the contract and past relationship might be problematic.  I like Arraez well enough, but the fit is only 'okay', but we do need a lead-off hitter.

And I'd continue to look at Adames.  That's the best fit RH power hitter that plays SS.  I would ask for SF to pick up some salary, but it doesn't have to be prohibitive.

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just in my personal opinion, it makes a difference.  I understand the logic of selling.  That guys can revert or get hurt.  But part of being a fanatic is being a fanatic.  I'd rather look forward to another month of hope than modest improvements for the future.

IRT whom I'd get, I'd be less aggressive now, but would ramp it up if we continue to play well (and vice versa).  Right now, I'd be looking at SF.  Devers is hitting well, but the contract and past relationship might be problematic.  I like Arraez well enough, but the fit is only 'okay', but we do need a lead-off hitter.

And I'd continue to look at Adames.  That's the best fit RH power hitter that plays SS.  I would ask for SF to pick up some salary, but it doesn't have to be prohibitive.

Devers? The contract, and past relationships might be problematic? You think?🙈

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Like let’s say the Sox swapped out Marcelo Mayer for Dalton Rushing in a deal that arguably makes sense for both teams.  Is that buying or selling?

Buying, selling, maybe stealing.  But I'm pretty flexible at this point, and IMHO, I think all fans should be.  Players values are unlikely to change over the next three days.  We could go 3-0 or 0-3 and have a lot more visibility.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Devers? The contract, and past relationships might be problematic? You think?🙈

I probably think too much like a rotisserie player, but it wouldn't be an issue for me.  The contract is a sunk cost for SF, so it is a question of how much of the sunk cost they want to take (or admit).  And I've never held any ill feelings towards Devers.  It was a tough situation all around.  Maybe both sides could've found a better solution.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I probably think too much like a rotisserie player, but it wouldn't be an issue for me.  The contract is a sunk cost for SF, so it is a question of how much of the sunk cost they want to take (or admit).  And I've never held any ill feelings towards Devers.  It was a tough situation all around.  Maybe both sides could've found a better solution.

I agree with this. I was never a Devers Forevers guy like some were on here, but I’m one of the few that put most of the blame on Brez for how the whole situation unfolded, and the final results.