Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

During the first year of any l/t contract, that's usually true.  In the last year of the contract, it is seldom true.  If Contreras had Bregman's numbers, would anyone be happy with the trade?

One interesting fact is that when you look at the top 10, 20 or 30 contracts in MLB history, year one has not been all that great in several/many of the deals.

Top contracts (1st year)

Soto 25

Vladdy 26

Ohtani 24

Trout 19

Betts 21

Judge 23

Machado 23

Lindor 22

Tatis 21

Harper 19

___________

Stanton 15

Seager 22

Yamamoto 24

Cole 20

Devers 24

Machado 19

T Turner 23

Whitt 24

19. Bogey 23

ARod 08

________________

Arenado 19

ARod 01

Miggy 16

Strasburg 20

Rendon 20

Pujols 12

Cano 14

Tucker 26

Votto 14

Fried 25

______________

31. Price 16

Look at #19 to 31, closely.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Story 2024-2026 4.7 bWAR

Bogaerts 2024-2026 4.1 bWAR

Wonder why you excluded '23???

Story 23-26 5.5 bWAR

Xander 23-26 8.2 bWAR

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

During the first year of any l/t contract, that's usually true.  In the last year of the contract, it is seldom true.  If Contreras had Bregman's numbers, would anyone be happy with the trade?

The main argument for keeping Bregman was his work behind the scenes in helping mentor and lift up young players. Sox offense has tanked without him. If you only look at players on a spreadsheet the way Breslow does, you build an offense that is at the bottom most categories and wonder how you got there. 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Wonder why you excluded '23???

Story 23-26 5.5 bWAR

Xander 23-26 8.2 bWAR

 To make his point look better.

That one is easy.

It's 13.9 to 8.0 from '22, when Story joined the Sox.

Here are the trend lines since '22:

5.7>4.2>1.2>2.0> 2.4 (projected for '26) Bogaerts

2.5>0.8>0.8> 3.8> 0.3 (projected) Story

[Sthpaw777]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Bennett is a great swap for Gray. Gray is a 2-3. Bennett is really  #5. Use the cost savings on offense though. Eyanson might take over for Bennett midyear.

I’m a big fan of Eyanson, so I’ll welcome that. Just means we have more options. If we’re selling though. it doesn’t matter. Regroup in the offseason for next year. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Wonder why you excluded '23???

Story 23-26 5.5 bWAR

Xander 23-26 8.2 bWAR

Just cherry-picking for the folks that think Bogaerts is way better,  Story has historically been better.  Bogaerts has historically been much healthier.

Even for your selection, Story has a 3.3 bWAR/162 (per B-R) and Bogaerts has a 3.0.  Other than Story diving for a GB, he'd have had a higher total bWAR.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Sthpaw777 said:

I’m a big fan of Eyanson, so I’ll welcome that. Just means we have more options. If we’re selling though. it doesn’t matter. Regroup in the offseason for next year. 

I liked Breslow's offseason last year. I didn't like his offseason this year. I guess we'll do another coin flip.

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Just cherry-picking for the folks that think Bogaerts is way better,  Story has historically been better.  Bogaerts has historically been much healthier.

Even for your selection, Story has a 3.3 bWAR/162 (per B-R) and Bogaerts has a 3.0.  Other than Story diving for a GB, he'd have had a higher total bWAR.

Trevor Story has historically played in Coors Field. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Trevor Story has historically played in Coors Field. 

Also, health is a very important tool in the toolshed!!!!!

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The main argument for keeping Bregman was his work behind the scenes in helping mentor

If that's the main argument, it is more than enough reason to pass on him.  Unless you think has some Vulcan mind control thing going on, just hire the best hitting coach you can find.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trevor Story has historically played in Coors Field. 

Not in the comparison I just made.

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, health is a very important tool in the toolshed!!!!!

 

Already acknowledged.  Story is better, and Bogaerts is more reliable.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Already acknowledged.  Story is better, and Bogaerts is more reliable.

Story 90 OPS+, 267 games

Bogey 104 OPS+, 449 games

Per 162 doesn't matter if a player can't stay healthy and is just wasting your payroll. 

[drewski6]

Why are we arguing Story vs Bogey again (genuine question)...I think when we brought in Story, the intention was to overlap.  Create a short window where Bogey was still under an affordable extension creating financial room to sign Story and have 2 plus infielders.  Now of course, signing Story increases the chance that we move on from Xander and Im sure all parties knew that....But I honestly think the o.g. plan, even though it didnt really work out that way, was to have both for a short window and then hopefully find a way to keep both.

Overlooking the unclean medicals we got from Story is a different matter, but worth including in the discussion.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why are we arguing Story vs Bogey again (genuine question)...I think when we brought in Story, the intention was to overlap.  Create a short window where Bogey was still under an affordable extension creating financial room to sign Story and have 2 plus infielders.  Now of course, signing Story increases the chance that we move on from Xander and Im sure all parties knew that....But I honestly think the o.g. plan, even though it didnt really work out that way, was to have both for a short window and then hopefully find a way to keep both.

Overlooking the unclean medicals we got from Story is a different matter, but worth including in the discussion.

Story was a bad signing from day one. I don't know how the argument started. He hasn't been worth the contract and there's no chance of it working out. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Story 90 OPS+, 267 games

Bogey 104 OPS+, 449 games

Per 162 doesn't matter if a player can't stay healthy and is just wasting your payroll. 

I've already acknowledged Bogaerts better reliability.  But one of the injuries was Story diving for a GB.  The arm qualifies as injury-prone, but the dive does not.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was a bad signing from day one. I don't know how the argument started. He hasn't been worth the contract and there's no chance of it working out. 

Story was a late signing, and as some theorized to appease the fans who were getting restless. Story fired his agent shortly after too, which led some to say that Story didn’t want to go to Boston anyway.

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I've already acknowledged Bogaerts better reliability.  But one of the injuries was Story diving for a GB.  The arm qualifies as injury-prone, but the dive does not.

At this point, with him missing substantial time AGAIN this year, I'm going to disagree with the last sentence. Everything he does leads to an injury. It's not a "freak injury" it's just him living with his fragility. 

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Story was a late signing, and as some theorized to appease the fans who were getting restless. Story fired his agent shortly after too, which led some to say that Story didn’t want to go to Boston anyway.

I don't remember being restless at that point? Sox were coming off the ALCS. The pre-injured Story was signed to a large contract and the collective feedback from RSN was a shrug. 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Story was a bad signing from day one. I don't know how the argument started. He hasn't been worth the contract and there's no chance of it working out. 

but in the playoffs last year, "working out" was only a stones throw away.

Reminds me of stocks I had that were losers, but then came back, and then i would get excited: "hey, we are only a stones throw from even" but I didnt sell, and the stock sunk again....And now its deep underwater and its not coming back and the point is dont invest in speculative bio companies.  Even if the science is promising, they are going to need round after round of financing and ur shares are going to get diluted.  Only invest in bio when they have a full cash runway or are already profitable.  

And I feel like this applies to story in a way.

 

[drewski6]

45 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I've already acknowledged Bogaerts better reliability.  But one of the injuries was Story diving for a GB.  The arm qualifies as injury-prone, but the dive does not.

more muscles would have been more padding on impact.  

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

more muscles would have been more padding on impact.  

No.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/strength-training-builds-more-than-muscles

https://www.brownhealth.org/be-well/benefits-strength-training-musculoskeletal-health#:~:text=Strength training helps prevent bone,risk of breaks or fractures.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/strength-training-builds-more-than-muscles

https://www.brownhealth.org/be-well/benefits-strength-training-musculoskeletal-health#:~:text=Strength training helps prevent bone,risk of breaks or fractures.

Story has osteoporosis? 

[mvp 78]

I would also expect that the researchers would say that Story probably has built more than enough muscle mass to stave off osteoporosis and typical bone loss. These studies don't say that it's the muscles that provide cushion from a fall ("more muscles would mean more padding on impact"). It's the working out that builds strong bones. I'm sure Story has done enough working out per the studies.

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com Injury Report on Crochet (updated yesterday)

Expected return: First or second week in June
Status: Threw his third side session in the span of a week, this time two innings, on May 20. Will throw one more short bullpen before facing hitters at some point early next week.

[notin]

On 5/20/2026 at 7:19 AM, mvp 78 said:

Wonder why you excluded '23???

Story 23-26 5.5 bWAR

Xander 23-26 8.2 bWAR

Obviously a great year for Xander, but that’s still a really impressive year for Story, too…

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

Obviously a great year for Xander, but that’s still a really impressive year for Story, too…

Bogey:

4.1 bWAR 2024-2026 combined (295 games)

4.2 bWAR 2023 (155 games)

5.7 bWAR 2022 (150 games)

Story:

4.7 from '24-'26

0.8 in 2023

2.5 in 2022

Apples to Oranges

[UtahSox]

Moon and the rest of you Savants…. Record aside the BoSox are showing some life 2 games out of WC…. Rotation looks good, the thought of going into WC round with Crochet, Suarez and Gray their playoff experience etc.  all the young explosive arms+ looks like Eyanson might be this years version of Tolle available down the stretch….. 

If you were Breslow. Do you look to add a bat now? Still wait and see? Who would inquire about? And what would you give up to get them?

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Moon and the rest of you Savants…. Record aside the BoSox are showing some life 2 games out of WC…. Rotation looks good, the thought of going into WC round with Crochet, Suarez and Gray their playoff experience etc.  all the young explosive arms+ looks like Eyanson might be this years version of Tolle available down the stretch….. 

If you were Breslow. Do you look to add a bat now? Still wait and see? Who would inquire about? And what would you give up to get them?

If the deadline was today, I'd sell.

This does not look like a ring team, even if we somehow squeak into the playoffs.

Things can change, especially if Crochet and Anthony return and help.

If things change, yes, a bat is the top target.

I would not trade Arias or Eyanson to get one, though.

I'd avoid moving Gonzales and Godbout as well.