Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[vegasbob]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We could see that from 2 of our current players- from today to October.

It's not enough.

Whatever the malaise going through the bats now, especially at home , could easily look different in late June.  Reversion to the mean by players with talent and pro histories could easily improve the numbers.

Run scoring is actually on an uptick.   The BP has lost the more recent games.   The Sox have scored 4-6-2-5-6 over the last 5.   Remember,  when reliever takes a loss it means they entered the game tied or leading and gave up the eventual winning run.   Sox relievers have lost 14 of the 31 L's.

[UtahSox]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

His fielding is not at Beltre's level. Adames never had a season like Beltre showed in 2004 or 2010. Unfortunately, Beltre wasted a lot of his prime in SEA. Adames may be wasting some of his career in SF, but he's not a HOF player like Beltre. I think the contract is just too much for him. If it was through '28, fine. It's just way too long for what he provides. 

Sox have shown that they are unable to absorb bad contracts (Story, Masa) and even had to trade off prospects to eat some (Hicks). 

Beltre wouldn’t be a hall of fame except for his production in his mid 30’s. But everyone on here would have told you to never sign him after 31 years of age.
 

 If Adames contract was through 2028 the giants wouldn’t trade him. Thats how you get the on field value. Take a risk. Y

[moonslav59]

How has the Sox luck been on significant FA signings?

How many over 30-31 year old FA signings work out for other teams?

Figure the odds.

Is this the solution to all our problems?

[UtahSox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We could see that from 2 of our current players- from today to October.

It's not enough.

Sorry I should have specified 2 additional. Along w/ Duran returning to the mean, and Roman coming back soonish.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Sorry I should have specified 2 additional. Along w/ Duran returning to the mean, and Roman coming back soonish.

We'd need 3-4 players on the roster to step it up over .750 plus 2 additional players to even have a shot, IMO.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Beltre wouldn’t be a hall of fame except for his production in his mid 30’s. But everyone on here would have told you to never sign him after 31 years of age.
 

 If Adames contract was through 2028 the giants wouldn’t trade him. Thats how you get the on field value. Take a risk. Y

This isn't true. I think most of us BOS fans wanted to keep Beltre around and were upset when he left. 

The Adames risk isn't worth it. Adames and Beltre aren't similar risks IMO. 

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This isn't true. I think most of us BOS fans wanted to keep Beltre around and were upset when he left. 

The Adames risk isn't worth it. Adames and Beltre aren't similar risks IMO. 

I agree, fully. Great glove- great bat.

AGon at 1B, Youk at 3B and Papi at DH made it tough, but Youk fell off a cliff a couple years later, which made all the "what ifs" hurt even more.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, fully. Great glove- great bat.

AGon at 1B, Youk at 3B and Papi at DH made it tough, but Youk fell off a cliff a couple years later, which made all the "what ifs" hurt even more.

Beltre was better than AGon and you didn't have to trade Anthony Rizzo to have him on your roster. 

[moonslav59]

42 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Beltre was better than AGon and you didn't have to trade Anthony Rizzo to have him on your roster. 

Agreed, but AGon ended up helping us to dump Crawford (and Beckett.)

We shoulda traded Youk and kept Rizzo & Beltre.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but AGon ended up helping us to dump Crawford (and Beckett.)

We shoulda traded Youk and kept Rizzo & Beltre.

Probably could've traded Crawford and Beckett together anyway, but received even less of a return. That Dodgers ownership wanted to add star power as they had just taken over. They needed some names. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Probably could've traded Crawford and Beckett together anyway, but received even less of a return. 

Less than nothing in return is what?

[notin]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, fully. Great glove- great bat.

AGon at 1B, Youk at 3B and Papi at DH made it tough, but Youk fell off a cliff a couple years later, which made all the "what ifs" hurt even more.

They should have never bothered with AGon.  Just extend Beltre and keep Youk at 1b…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Less than nothing in return is what?

Webster and De La Rosa were legit prospects at the time. 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, notin said:

They should have never bothered with AGon.  Just extend Beltre and keep Youk at 1b…

Then when Youk cliff dives, Rizzo plays 1B for the next decade.

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

This isn't true. I think most of us BOS fans wanted to keep Beltre around and were upset when he left. 

The Adames risk isn't worth it. Adames and Beltre aren't similar risks IMO. 

This emphatically IS true if you look at what Beltre achieved after the age of 31. He’s in the Hall of Fame in the Texas Rangers uniform. Just FYI…… I’d encourage you to actually go pull up his career stats. If he would have retired at 31 (after year in Boston) he objectively would not be in HOF. 
 

Let me frame in why are we talking about Beltre? Because you said many times over you “don’t want Adames due to his contract going until he’s 35 years old.” And I said “I don’t know man maybe I get Beltré vibes from him” meaning a guy whose value could last well into his 30s. The point is neither one of us knows, and we can’t argue the future with any level of objectivity…. Obviously statistics would be on your side, the most guys decline in their 30s. He has consistently been a 3 to 4+ war every season since he 22 years old. And his AAV is $26 million. So his contract would be very similar to Trevor Story but I think he’s a better baseball player and that is my argument and BTV backs it up as his actual field value is really high. I’m not saying Adames is the only guy like this, but I’d celebrate hard if RS made this deal.

In summary To close the circle on this discussion as there are 3 ways to get good baseball players with high AFV values… develop, free agency, or trade. 

my original argument was 1. RS have resources and financial capability to spend more than Phillies and like the Yankees. 2. I think we’re too far along in the rebuild to not do anything. 3. So while we wait for these young guys to earn their stripes, we need good baseball players in the lineup to win games. HOW do you get good baseball players 2026-2028 window? 
1. Development like Roman: but (I believe we dont have enough offensively on the farm to win a lot via development).
2. Free Agency but at that point if we want them they will be 29-31 years old and have strong AFV you most likely are going to have to be uncomfortable on years and amount. RS didn’t do great in offensive FA last while. 

3. Via trade and in that case you’re going to have to do it 1 of 2 ways…., a. deplete the farm b. taking on a good player with some risk in terms of years ie Adames. 
 

now the big assumption I’m making is the Giants look in totality and the Devers , Adames, Chapman contracts and say “ well this isn’t working now, let alone in 2029 we need to shed some payroll”

Maybe they are OK with carrying those 3 and not sniffing postseason, then you may be right in that they would want a lot of prospects. And if you have to give up a lot, Adames would not be worth it. 

[UtahSox]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How has the Sox luck been on significant FA signings?

How many over 30-31 year old FA signings work out for other teams?

Figure the odds.

Is this the solution to all our problems?

No there is substantial data that says players decline. That’s the risk portion of equation for sure. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

This emphatically IS true if you look at what Beltre achieved after the age of 31. He’s in the Hall of Fame in the Texas Rangers uniform. Just FYI…… like actually go pull up his career stats. If he would have retired at 31 (after year in Boston) he objectively would not be in HOF. 
 

Let me frame in why are we talking about Beltre? Because you said many times over you “don’t want Adames due to his contract going until he’s 35 years old.” And I said “I don’t know man maybe I get Beltré vibes from him” meaning a guy whose value could last well into his 30s. The point is neither one of us knows, and we can’t argue the future with any level of objectivity…. Obviously statistics would be on your side, the most guys decline in their 30s. He has consistently been a 3 to 4+ war every season since he 22 years old. And his AAV is $26 million. So his contract would be very similar to Trevor Story but I think he’s a better baseball player and that is my argument and BTV backs it up as his actual field value is really high. I’m not saying Adames is the only guy like this, but I’d celebrate hard if RS made this deal.

In summary To close the circle on this discussion as there are 3 ways to get good baseball players with high AFV values… develop, free agency, or trade. 

my original argument was 1. RS have resources and financial capability to spend more than Phillies and like the Yankees. 2. I think we’re too far along in the rebuild to not do anything. 3. So while we wait for these young guys to earn their stripes, we need good baseball players in the lineup to win games. HOW do you get good baseball players 2026-2028 window? 3 ways I can see. 
1. Development like Roman: but (I believe we dont have enough offensively on the farm to win a lot via development).
2. Free Agency but at that point if we want them they will be 29-31 years old and have strong AFV you most likely are going to have to be uncomfortable on years and amount. RS didn’t do great in offensive FA last while. 

3. Via trade and in that case you’re going to have to do it 1 of 2 ways…., a. deplete the farm b. taking on a good player with some risk in terms of years ie Adames. 
 

now the big assumption I’m making is the Giants look in totality and the Devers , Adames, Chapman contracts and say “ well this isn’t working now, let alone in 2029 we need to shed some payroll”

Maybe they are OK with carrying those 3 and not sniffing postseason, then you may be right in that they would want a lot of prospects. And if you have to give up a lot, Adames would not be worth it. 

I wasn't making the argument that he'd get into the HOF if he retired after 2010. My "this isn't true" is clearly towards the "everyone on here would've never told you to sign him after 31" comment. 

I wouldn't take on Adames for half his contract through '31. 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, notin said:

They should have never bothered with AGon.  Just extend Beltre and keep Youk at 1b…

That was a tough decision, Beltre was my immediate favorite. But it worked out ok. 

[UtahSox]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wasn't making the argument that he'd get into the HOF if he retired after 2010. My "this isn't true" is clearly towards the "everyone on here would've never told you to sign him after 31" comment. 

I wouldn't take on Adames for half his contract through '31. 

MVP you’re missing this point though his on field value with a 13m AAV the trade package would be through the moon. So you would have to empty the farm to get him if you’re mitigating the risk of the back end of his contract you understand that right? And every team would be willing to trade for him. So you’d have competition on your package to the giants. 

He’s offensively a very gifted player. In fact he’s the first Giants player to hit 30+ home runs in a season since Barry Bonds. Hypothetical example if he was on Wilyer Abreu contract right now. It would take three blue Chip prospects close to MLB level to get him. But alas, the Boston Red Sox say they don’t have resource issues meaning they can take on riskier contracts that other teams cannot/will not. Can you acknowledge at this point the entire reason I say bring on Willy Adames is he is a good player and he has a risky contract?
 

Your line of logic is one I think is that is shared by most, and definitely by ownership in front office of the Boston Red Sox. And one where you sit and do nothing at the trade deadline or free agency. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

MVP you’re missing this point though his on field value with a 13m AAV the trade package would be through the moon. So you would have to empty the farm to get him if you’re mitigating the risk of the back end of his contract you understand that right? And every team would be willing to trade for him. So you’d have competition on your package to the giants. 

He’s offensively a very gifted player. In fact he’s the first player to hit 30+ home runs in a giant uniform since Barry Bonds. Hypothetical example if he was on Wilyer Abreu contract right now. It would take three blue Chip prospects close to MLB level to get him. But alas, the Boston Red Sox say they don’t have resource issues meaning they can take on risk your contracts that other teams cannot will you acknowledge at this point. But the reason I say bring on Willy Adames is he is a good player and he has a risky contract.
 

Your line of logic is one I think is that is shared by most, and definitely by ownership in front office of the Boston Red Sox. And one where you sit and do nothing at the trade deadline or free agency. 

I don't want to do nothing, I just don't want an Adames that is heading downhill fast. Why exacerbate the problems the 2026 Sox already have (bloated contracts for aging players with bad defense)? 

[UtahSox]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't want to do nothing, I just don't want an Adames that is heading downhill fast. Why exacerbate the problems the 2026 Sox already have (bloated contracts for aging players with bad defense)? 

OK, so instead of being like my wife on date night, who just shoots down my ideas, without a solution….

give me an idea how you would make this team better now, or in the next 18 months using (your words) no taking on bloated contracts, no aging players , while getting good offensive production, with at least solid defense.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

No there is substantial data that says players decline. That’s the risk portion of equation for sure. 

That was my point. Guys like Lester and beltre are outliers that get fans rabid about signing this 32+ guy or that 31+ guys.

[UtahSox]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was my point. Guys like Lester and beltre are outliers that get fans rabid about signing this 32+ guy or that 31+ guys.

Yes, we’re on the same page, that is why I use Beltre as my example… but when you go onto BTV, there are a lot of really good, really productive baseball players 30+ they just usually have massive contracts. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Yes, we’re on the same page, that is why I use Beltre as my example… but when you go onto BTV, there are a lot of really good, really productive baseball players 30+ they just usually have massive contracts. 

Really productive now, or over the last 1-3 years, but what about in September and 2027 and beyond?

[UtahSox]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Really productive now, or over the last 1-3 years, but what about in September and 2027 and beyond?

Arguing the future is impossible… AI generated a report for me that there are currently 53 major league baseball players with an 800 or better OPS. 16 of which are 31 years or older. Roughly 30.3% of players with an 800 OPS are 31 years of age or older. But specifically about Willy Adames (as he is whom the topic was generated.) I strongly believe he will be a 3 to 4 war player 2028 year. And if you played in Boston would be an 800+ OPS player in 27 and 28. 
 

moon Adames for Bello right now. Yay or nay?

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

OK, so instead of being like my wife on date night, who just shoots down my ideas, without a solution….

give me an idea how you would make this team better now, or in the next 18 months using (your words) no taking on bloated contracts, no aging players , while getting good offensive production, with at least solid defense.

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

Sogard 3B

Neto SS (Trade Mayer and prospects)

Gasper 2B

Contreras 1B

Narvaez C

Anthony DH

Bench: Durbin, Monasterio, Wong, Eaton

DFA/Trade Story and Masa

Trade IKF

[UtahSox]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

Sogard 3B

Neto SS (Trade Mayer and prospects)

Gasper 2B

Contreras 1B

Narvaez C

Anthony DH

Bench: Durbin, Monasterio, Wong, Eaton

DFA/Trade Story and Masa

Trade IKF

I watch Neto a lot. I think he’s a really good player. And this trade has just as good of a chance as Adames. I think you could trade masa get at least 5m in savings out of him. Let me go BTV this. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Arguing the future is impossible… AI generated a report for me that there are currently 53 major league baseball players with an 800 or better OPS. 16 of which are 31 years or older. Roughly 30.3% of players with an 800 OPS are 31 years of age or older. But specifically about Willy Adames (as he is whom the topic was generated.) I strongly believe he will be a 3 to 4 war player 2028 year. And if you played in Boston would be an 800+ OPS player in 27 and 28. 
 

moon Adames for Bello right now. Yay or nay?

I'd probably would, but only because Bello is owed about $49M.

That cut's the cost of Adames from $129M to about $80M for 5.7 years.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I watch Neto a lot. I think he’s a really good player. And this trade has just as good of a chance as Adames. I think you could trade masa get at least 5m in savings out of him. Let me go BTV this. 

I suggested numerous Neto trades, a few months back. I think the Angels are asking too much.

[UtahSox]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran LF

Rafaela CF

Abreu RF

Sogard 3B

Neto SS (Trade Mayer and prospects)

Gasper 2B

Contreras 1B

Narvaez C

Anthony DH

Bench: Durbin, Monasterio, Wong, Eaton

DFA/Trade Story and Masa

Trade IKF

Ok Neto (AFV = 90)for say Marcelo Mayer, Dorian Soto, and Juan Valera? 
 

here is my trade idea:( I believe is a wild card team w/ chance to do damage in postseason)

LF Duran

2B Marte (same package as your Neto maybe less)

1b Contreras

DH Anthony

SS Adames (AFV=111)

RF Abreu

3b Sogard/ Romy Gonzalez 

C Gaspar/ Wong (trade Narvaez)

CF Rafaela