Red Sox Ace Garrett Crochet Heads To Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation

[Sthpaw777]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

This doesnt bode well for Contreras going forward.

They should move him at the deadline if they get a solid offer

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

On a team that stinks at hitting, the last thing I want to see as a fan is the front office trade the only sure threat in the batting order because they sucked so bad at their own roster construction.

Of course, also-rans that don't dwell in Boston regularly deal desirable parts for prospects every summer.

But after what we've seen from the team-extended faces of the franchise these days, do we really want to see some of the only good Red Sox get swapped for more "can't-miss" heroes of the future (that none of us know will ever come)? 

Ready to hurry up and wait again?

Im not saying never build through the farm again , because building through the farm the last bunch of years has not been fun.

But it does take away some of the appeal away to trade for prospects.

[drewski6]

Just now, Sthpaw777 said:

They should move him at the deadline if they get a solid offer

Theyll get a solid offer, the real question is can we get to a decent chance to make the playoffs this year by the deadline and/or can we reasonably expect a competitive team next year.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The second part is the biggest hedge of all time. The first part can be measure in so many ways that it is virtually meaningless. 

On the first part, we can use wRC+ by FG.

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If the red sox have a 25% of making the playoffs this year and 33% next, that means they have a 50.5% chance of making the playoffs in either year, so it will be hard to prove I was so off if they make the playoffs.  If they make the playoffs both years, that would imply that they overcame something that I said was approx 8-10% possible, which is more appropriate for you to eventually shove in my face , but still, things that have an 8% chance of happening still happen.  In fact, they happen every day.

It would be two separate wagers.  25% on this year, and 33% in 2027.

[Sthpaw777]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Theyll get a solid offer, the real question is can we get to a decent chance to make the playoffs this year by the deadline and/or can we reasonably expect a competitive team next year.

I don’t think this team is a legit World Series champion this year. Still feel like 500 at their best. Next year could go better  if they make moves at the deadline for some young bats. They’ve got the pitching. Find another closer this winter or go with Whitlock. We have Bennett to replace Gray. Hell, if they can move Bello and Duran too I’m all in.  Besides Gonzales we have nothing resembling a legit power bat. 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It would be two separate wagers.  25% on this year, and 33% in 2027.

Thats not measurable over a sample of 1.  How can you prove that 25% chance to make the playoffs was so off?

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Sthpaw777 said:

I don’t think this team is a legit World Series champion this year. Still feel like 500 at their best. Next year could go better  if they make moves at the deadline for some young bats. They’ve got the pitching. Find another closer this winter or go with Whitlock. We have Bennett to replace Gray. Hell, if they can move Bello and Duran too I’m all in.  Besides Gonzales we have nothing resembling a legit power bat. 

Fair.

[UtahSox]

I just keep circling back to this though
The Red Sox are currently two games out of the wildcard halfway through May. Arguably our best 2 players have not made an impact yet this season. I still argue-Our best chance moving forward is doubling down on maybe some riskier could be badlonger-term contracts, for better baseball players NOW and potentially getting off of terrible contracts for below average players. Our pitching rotation looks pennant worthy. Lineup sucks ass. 
 

One thing is for sure, is that Red Sox nation is not very happy with the roster construction. The Red Sox organization has announced that they are now in their window, maybe they show their depth and balls and make a move that reminds everybody. This is a top 3 to 4 revenue baseball organization?

I think you’re starting to see in the NL some teams already realizing they’re 8-10 games back of the wildcard spot. They might become sellers earlier. If you can somehow add some thump to this lineup in 2026 and 2027 this team could be dangerous.

 

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, Sthpaw777 said:

I don’t think this team is a legit World Series champion this year. Still feel like 500 at their best. Next year could go better  if they make moves at the deadline for some young bats. They’ve got the pitching. Find another closer this winter or go with Whitlock. We have Bennett to replace Gray. Hell, if they can move Bello and Duran too I’m all in.  Besides Gonzales we have nothing resembling a legit power bat. 

I don't think Bennett is a great swap for Gray. Gray is a 2-3. Bennett is really  #5. Use the cost savings on offense though. Eyanson might take over for Bennett midyear.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

The Red Sox organization has announced that they are now in their window, maybe they show their depth and balls and make a move that reminds everybody. This is a top 3 to 4 revenue baseball organization?

This iteration of the Sox? Oh, I don't know about that. 

[notin]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats not measurable over a sample of 1.  How can you prove that 25% chance to make the playoffs was so off?

Play out the season 4 times on MLB 9 Innings and see if the Sox make the postseason once.

This is not rocket surgery…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Play out the season 4 times on MLB 9 Innings and see if the Sox make the postseason once.

This is not rocket surgery…

[JoeBrady]

52 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats not measurable over a sample of 1.  How can you prove that 25% chance to make the playoffs was so off?

I'm thinking an actual wager where the odds are the equivalent of us having a 25% chance.  I bet that we make the playoffs with the appropriate odds.

[JoeBrady]

46 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I still argue-Our best chance moving forward is doubling down on maybe some riskier could be badlonger-term contracts

I not only agree 100%, I cannot even consider the possibility that the RS don't agree 100%.  This isn't like 2022-2024, when our chances were slim, even assuming we'd make the playoffs.  Even last year, when I'd have traded for Naylor, we still had poor odds of playoff success with Crochet being our only SP.

Assuming Crochet comes back, e might have the best pitching in BB.  Over the past 28 days, which is a decent sample size, Suarez, Gray, Tolle and Early have a 2.30 ERA, and Chapman, Whitlock, and Slaten have a 0.41 ERA.

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'm thinking an actual wager where the odds are the equivalent of us having a 25% chance.  I bet that we make the playoffs with the appropriate odds.

Sorry, exchanging info and the logistics is more of a nuance to me than the money would be worth.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

In a decidedly non-scientific analysis, I took a look at all the players from 2025, with an fWAR of 2.0 or higher, age 33-36.  There were 11 players.  Only 2 had improvements in their wRC+, while 9 declined.  The two that improved, Diaz and Contreras, improved by 8 points each.  The 9 that declined had declines that were much, much higher.

Using Bogey as an example of "improving" is deceptive, too.

He declined so much, that an improvement is still worse than what he was when here.

.814 OPS w BOS

.880 OPS w BOS- last 5 years

.790 in '23

.688 in '24

.720 in '25

.735 in '26 is not what I call improving with age.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Using Bogey as an example of "improving" is deceptive, too.

He declined so much, that an improvement is still worse than what he was when here.

.814 OPS w BOS

.880 OPS w BOS- last 5 years

.790 in '23

.688 in '24

.720 in '25

.735 in '26 is not what I call improving with age.

Yup, there's really no sense anyone can argue against Father Time, but I liked reading Shaugnessy last week remind all that Xander Bogaerts always was, alway is, and will always be a better ballplayer than Trevor Story.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Using Bogey as an example of "improving" is deceptive, too.

He declined so much, that an improvement is still worse than what he was when here.

.814 OPS w BOS

.880 OPS w BOS- last 5 years

.790 in '23

.688 in '24

.720 in '25

.735 in '26 is not what I call improving with age.

At his best, he was towards the top of the leader board in 2b's. He went to a park that is 27th in park factor for 2b's. Of course his numbers would go down. 

'25:

21 2b Away

9 2b Home

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yup, there's really no sense anyone can argue against Father Time, but I liked reading Shaugnessy last week remind all that Xander Bogaerts always was, alway is, and will always be a better ballplayer than Trevor Story.

Give me Xander over Trevor Story yesterday, today and tomorrow. 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yup, there's really no sense anyone can argue against Father Time, but I liked reading Shaugnessy last week remind all that Xander Bogaerts always was, alway is, and will always be a better ballplayer than Trevor Story.

True, but these two are not the only SSs in MLB.

Suarez over Bregman will prove to be a clear winning choice. Just watch.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but these two are not the only SSs in MLB.

Suarez over Bregman will prove to be a clear winning choice. Just watch.

There were too many Suarezes on the FA market this offseason. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sorry, exchanging info and the logistics is more of a nuance to me than the money would be worth.

That's fine.  My wagers are always directed to charities, but no biggie.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Using Bogey as an example of "improving" is deceptive, too.

He declined so much, that an improvement is still worse than what he was when here.

.814 OPS w BOS

.880 OPS w BOS- last 5 years

.790 in '23

.688 in '24

.720 in '25

.735 in '26 is not what I call improving with age.

My philosophy is that you have to earn your payback early, since you are unlikely get anything later.  Since he joined the Padres, he is among the lowest ranked SS irt to fielding.  And he has a 104 OPS+.  Even disregarding the fact that they have to pay him until he is 40, it still is a weak contract.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Yup, there's really no sense anyone can argue against Father Time, but I liked reading Shaugnessy last week remind all that Xander Bogaerts always was, alway is, and will always be a better ballplayer than Trevor Story.

Story 2024-2026 4.7 bWAR

Bogaerts 2024-2026 4.1 bWAR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Story 2024-2026 4.7 bWAR

Bogaerts 2024-2026 4.1 bWAR

Yeaaay STATS! Let's pick some more off the cherry tree:

Story as a Red Sox, 2022-26: 8 WAR 

Bogaerts in MLB, '22-26: 14 WAR 

We all know Xander is overpaid in SD, and we all know Trevor has been a bust in 80% of his Boston career and easily one of the worst Sox free agent signings of the century.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

True, but these two are not the only SSs in MLB.

Suarez over Bregman will prove to be a clear winning choice. Just watch.

I have no idea if either has made a difference on their new teams, but the club Suarez joined is in last place and the one Bregman joined is in first place. 

We can compare batting stats or WAR or games played, but there's just no way to quantify their total effect on won-loss records. I learned this from the Driveline guy the Red Sox didn't fire.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have no idea if either has made a difference on their new teams, but the club Suarez joined is in last place and the one Bregman joined is in first place. 

We can compare batting stats or WAR or games played, but there's just no way to quantify their total effect on won-loss records. I learned this from the Driveline guy the Red Sox didn't fire.

I do think Breggie would have helped the Sox, even if Durbin was at .720.

He is still in decline and not worth the money.

Ranger >>> Breggie

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We all know Xander is overpaid in SD, and we all know Trevor has been a bust in 80% of his Boston career and easily one of the worst Sox free agent signings of the century.

I agree.  The historical difference between the two is less than people think.  Story has a much, much higher bWAR/650 PAs than Bogaerts, but Bogaerts has missed far fewer games.

[JoeBrady]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think Breggie would have helped the Sox

During the first year of any l/t contract, that's usually true.  In the last year of the contract, it is seldom true.  If Contreras had Bregman's numbers, would anyone be happy with the trade?