Brewers (Drohan) vs. Red Sox (Gray): 4/8/26, 1:35pm

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's the only reason people got excited about Zach Neto for a hot minute. That had ZERO chance of happening. Now we get to hear "well, they could have had Neto." No, they couldn't! There was no chance of them getting Neto at that point in the offseason. 

No chance, because Brez would refuse to give up Tolle and or Early plus more.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No chance, because Brez would refuse to give up Tolle and or Early plus more.

It would have had to be and absolute haul of Mayer plus Dobbins, Fitts, Fajardo, etc. (guys already traded away during the offseason if they weren't going to trade Tolle/Early). 

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It would have had to be and absolute haul of Mayer plus Dobbins, Fitts, Fajardo, etc. (guys already traded away during the offseason if they weren't going to trade Tolle/Early). 

I understand that. I might have given up Mayer & Tolle, but we'd have still needed an infielder.

Ideally, a trade centered around Duran or Rafaela plus 2-3 from Clarke, Fitts, Dobbins, Fajardo & Travieso plus Arias or Romero would be best, but maybe that's not enough.

I think KMarte was an easier target, due to his contract situation compared to Neto.

If teams did not want Duran, I think we could have involved a 3rd team to even it out. I realize this is all speculation, and maybe I'd have said no to what the final offers needed to be, so my "what if" is based on fantasy. I get that.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

16 hours ago, illinoisredsox said:

It seems to be true, but of the thousands of guys who have played MLB and worn numbers 1-31 since numbers became a thing, it's hard to believe it hasn't happened at least a few times.

all other MLB players (14) with May as a surname were born in months other the month of May. Same for players with the surname: January (5), April (2) and August (1).

[Behindenemylines]

10 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If plenty of people wanted Duran, he wouldn't be here. 

The price for Duran was set high (as it should have been), and no team was willing to give the Sox what they wanted for him.  They weren't going to trade him for the sake of just trading him.

[JoeBrady]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I would have demanded King, Sousa or Janek, but not one for one.

Would you have given Rafaela one for one?

No.  Raffy has a great contract.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's the only reason people got excited about Zach Neto for a hot minute. That had ZERO chance of happening. Now we get to hear "well, they could have had Neto." No, they couldn't! There was no chance of them getting Neto at that point in the offseason. 

Yup, that had a -0- chance,  LAA doesn't trade their kids, not even the bad ones.  And even the 0% speculation, we wouldn't have the prospects to make the move.  5 years of a 5-WAR player would probably start the bidding with Roman Anthony++.

But, for those that dislike Breslow, it gave them an opportunity to criticize his handling of the Neto trade.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, Hitch said:

McAdams and Cotillo are hacks unless you need them to back up a point. Carrabis isn't a journalist and his scoop shop is ******** unless you need him. Now Mcaffrey can't be trusted. Laughable. 

To say Duran wasn't wanted by anyone is ridiculous. No matter how many tiresome strawmen you throw at the conversation. 😴

Most of the discussions are going sideways.  Just a couple of notes:

• It is entirely possible that Houston didn't like the Duran fit.  They talked about both Alvarez and Altuve taking games in LF.  To be honest, I'm not convinced that Abreu was a good choice for them, since Cam Smith looks like a promising player.
• Just like we like our guys, other teams like their guys.  I wanted Burns, Seth Hernandez, or Bubba.  But it is possible there teams wouldn't consider trading them under any conditions.

[notin]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Most of the discussions are going sideways.  Just a couple of notes:

• It is entirely possible that Houston didn't like the Duran fit.  They talked about both Alvarez and Altuve taking games in LF.  To be honest, I'm not convinced that Abreu was a good choice for them, since Cam Smith looks like a promising player.
• Just like we like our guys, other teams like their guys.  I wanted Burns, Seth Hernandez, or Bubba.  But it is possible there teams wouldn't consider trading them under any conditions.

Honestly though, a deal centered around Duran and Paredes should have made sense for both teams.  Paredes was part of a surplus of infielders on a team looking for a LHH corner outfielder.  Duran is part of a surplus of LHH corner outfielders on a team that needed an infielder.  A lot of stars did align and I’m not sure why Houston was adamant that it was either Abreu for them or they were going to bench Paredes and start Joey Loperfido in LF.

Unless Duran’s $7mill salary was not to their liking…

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless Duran’s $7mill salary was not to their liking…

Paredes makes $9.35M

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

should have made sense

That might have been the fly in the ointment.  My plain olde guess here that the Houston GM thought this made so much sense for the RS, that Breslow would go through with it, even if the RS took the worst of it.  I'm sure a lot of have done the same.

Now Houston has Pena back and no place to play Paredes.  That said, I wouldn't bet against us making a similar trade.

[illinoisredsox]

5 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

all other MLB players (14) with May as a surname were born in months other the month of May. Same for players with the surname: January (5), April (2) and August (1).

Myopic me, I missed the May part.  
 

Memo to self:  don’t overthink things at 11 pm local time.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Now Houston has Pena back and no place to play Paredes. 

This is the part that made a trade seem like a no brainer.

I know they wanted Abreu, but Duran would help them more than Paredes would have helped us.

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That might have been the fly in the ointment.  My plain olde guess here that the Houston GM thought this made so much sense for the RS, that Breslow would go through with it, even if the RS took the worst of it.  I'm sure a lot of have done the same.

Now Houston has Pena back and no place to play Paredes.  That said, I wouldn't bet against us making a similar trade.

Going off all the reports, I'm pretty sure this is exactly what happened. The Astros could see how good the fit was for us and expected Bres to buckle and hand over Duran in an uneven trade. Instead Bres pivoted to Durbin and kept him.

[mvp 78]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

Going off all the reports, I'm pretty sure this is exactly what happened. The Astros could see how good the fit was for us and expected Bres to buckle and hand over Duran in an uneven trade. Instead Bres pivoted to Durbin and kept him.

Other teams just don't value Duran as highly as the Sox team. It's pretty obvious at this point.

[moonslav59]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Other teams just don't value Duran as highly as the Sox team. It's pretty obvious at this point.

That very well could be, but it's not "obvious."

Couldn't that Brez values him more highly all GMs in need of an OF'er and who can afford $7M?

I'd like to know any and all deals offered for him: then, we'd have a better idea of where the main issue lies.

8 months ago, this was reported....

 

The Boston Red Sox rejected the San Diego Padres' package of starting pitcher Dylan Cease, No. 2 prospect Ethan Salas and an unnamed prospect for All-Star outfielder Jarren Duran, per MassLive's Sean McAdam. McAdam clarified the unnamed prospect was not No. 1 Padres prospect and No. 3 MLB prospect Leo De Vries.

The Sox "quickly rejected it." I think that showed one GM valued Duran.

There was also more recent talk of Ragans for Duran, but I'm not sure that helps my point.

Haven't really heard many confirmed offers made, so it's tough to know.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That very well could be, but it's not "obvious."

Couldn't that Brez values him more highly all GMs in need of an OF'er and who can afford $7M?

I'd like to know any and all deals offered for him: then, we'd have a better idea of where the main issue lies.

8 months ago, this was reported....

 

The Boston Red Sox rejected the San Diego Padres' package of starting pitcher Dylan Cease, No. 2 prospect Ethan Salas and an unnamed prospect for All-Star outfielder Jarren Duran, per MassLive's Sean McAdam. McAdam clarified the unnamed prospect was not No. 1 Padres prospect and No. 3 MLB prospect Leo De Vries.

The Sox "quickly rejected it." I think that showed one GM valued Duran.

There was also more recent talk of Ragans for Duran, but I'm not sure that helps my point.

Haven't really heard many confirmed offers made, so it's tough to know.

Would you have traded 3.5 years of Duran for .5 years of Cease, Salas (who hasn't OPS'd above 600 since '23) and some unnamed prospect? I wouldn't have. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Would you have traded 3.5 years of Duran for .5 years of Cease, Salas (who hasn't OPS'd above 600 since '23) and some unnamed prospect? I wouldn't have. 

No, but it shows a GM wanted Duran and was willing to give up value.

Since we don't know all the players ever discussed in trade talks, I don't think we can say it's "obvious" nobody values Duran highly enough.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No, but it shows a GM wanted Duran and was willing to give up value.

Since we don't know all the players ever discussed in trade talks, I don't think we can say it's "obvious" nobody values Duran highly enough.

It's obvious. 😎

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's obvious. 😎

Yes, obvious how myopic you can be.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Would you have traded 3.5 years of Duran for .5 years of Cease, Salas (who hasn't OPS'd above 600 since '23) and some unnamed prospect? I wouldn't have. 

It hasnt been that long since Salas was considered a top prospect + a rental pitcher has decent value at the deadline.  This package isnt nothing.

Of course, there is plenty of middle ground between a) a belief that the Sox overrate Duran's trade value and b) Duran not having trade value.  For example, if the Sox and BTV peg Duran at about 35 trade value units, and you think thats too high and it should be about 25 units in a fair deal but you also think this Salas/Cease package is worth 15 units and not enough.  So if thats about-ish where you are (and im just using it as an example) , I can reconcile you being like Sox shoulda moved Duran in a package, but they overrate and that gets in the way ...... But the 15 trade unit package is too low.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

It hasnt been that long since Salas was considered a top prospect + a rental pitcher has decent value at the deadline.  This package isnt nothing.

Of course, there is plenty of middle ground between a) a belief that the Sox overrate Duran's trade value and b) Duran not having trade value.  For example, if the Sox and BTV peg Duran at about 35 trade value units, and you think thats too high and it should be about 25 units in a fair deal but you also think this Salas/Cease package is worth 15 units and not enough.  So if thats about-ish where you are (and im just using it as an example) , I can reconcile you being like Sox shoulda moved Duran in a package, but they overrate and that gets in the way ...... But the 15 trade unit package is too low.

Good points.

BTV has Duran at 38.5, Rafaela at 36.6 and Abreu at 35.0.

I might put it more like Abreu 45, Rafaela 35 and Duran 30, but so be it.

BTV has these selected Astros players' values:

18.1 Paredes

9.3 Janek (C prospect)

8.8 Abreu (off to a bad start & 1 year of control)

8.1 King (RP w 4 years of control)

5.7 Sousa (RP w 3 years of control)

BTV allows a Duran for Paredes & King trade but calls it a "major overpay" by the Sox.

Other values:

73.6 Neto (4 yrs) BTV accepts Duran, Bello & Phillips

39.8 Keaschall (5 yrs) They don't want Duran, but might take Rafaela & Romero plus.

35.3 Matt Shaw (5 yrs)

29.4 Hoerner (just signed 7 year deal)

17.3 E Tovar (5 yrs)

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Other teams just don't value Duran as highly as the Sox team. It's pretty obvious at this point.

I imagine that's the same for most players. And Bres absolutely should be valuing him higher than Paredes.

[notin]

21 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

all other MLB players (14) with May as a surname were born in months other the month of May. Same for players with the surname: January (5), April (2) and August (1).

Near miss:  Rafael Marchan was born Feb 25.  If he had been born about two weeks later on March 12, would he count?

Also we limit these to months in English, but Juan Agosto and Jorge Julio were still not born in the proper months…

[notin]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Paredes makes $9.35M

If they wanted to lower payroll, it would explain why they were adamant about Abreu over Duran…

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

If they wanted to lower payroll, it would explain why they were adamant about Abreu over Duran…

True, but Duran lowers it by more than they ended up by keeping Paredes.