Spring Training game thread: Week of Feb 21

[mvp 78]

55 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I was wondering when we were going to get the first complaint in spring training.  Admittedly I haven't been around much the last couple weeks so maybe someone else has stolen the award. 

I'm trying not to pay too much attention to the complaints. Just ready for Opening Day TBH.

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Stolen bases are exciting and thats part of it.  

Agree I love the merits of small ball. But our lineup isn’t setup for small ball. Way too much swing and miss in lineup. hence RISP stats last year. While I hope we are better this year, the DNA of roster suggests a lot of swing and miss. 
 

@jad I disagree that people don’t like watching small ball, it’s that the analytics know with how pitchers throw nowadays, it’s so hard to string hits together.
 So analytics tell them to move away from small ball. But teams that are good at it (brewers/ Bluejays) are a blast to watch. IMO.

[jad]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm sorry, did you hit your head? Moving runners over and productive outs are a large part of small ball. 

Did you hit yours?  or did the irony circuit turn off?

To be clear, In my view small -ball works best when the OTHER team is playing small ball as well, in which case, it is successful approxiimately 50% of the time.

That is, I hate it, and others love it, and when we discuss it at this time of year when there's really nothing interesting to talk about (actual games), we sometimes border on the crazed.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is this cash or luxury tax? 

Depends on what looks better for Fred.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Agree I love the merits of small ball. But our lineup isn’t setup for small ball. Way too much swing and miss in lineup. hence RISP stats last year. While I hope we are better this year, the DNA of roster suggests a lot of swing and miss. 
 

@jad I disagree that people don’t like watching small ball, it’s that the analytics know with how pitchers throw nowadays, it’s so hard to string hits together.
 So analytics tell them to move away from small ball. But teams that are good at it (brewers/ Bluejays) are a blast to watch. IMO.

I disagree that it's harder to string hits together. Even with all the changes, there was only a difference in 5% in hits from 1985 to 2026. Is that 5% decrease really that big of a rally killer? I'm not so sure. It's just that teams have moved towards launch angle and exit velo to maximize EVERY at bat rather than simply use what worked for 100 years (moving runners over, going oppo intentionally). Unfortunately for fans, there's no measurable difference in runs scored between the mid 80's and now (including letting pitchers hit) when you factor in the extra 4 teams that are now in the league. Now, it's a station to station game where not much happens until there is a big swing. Games are a lot less exciting IMO, a lot less action going on inning by inning. 

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Depends on what looks better for Fred.

Lux tax vs revenue in JH's pocket looks better for JH.

Cash paid vs revenue in JH's pocket looks worse for JH. Maybe?

JH can/will trade any contract once he doesn't like it anymore. 

Crochet 28M Lux/28M Cash

Anthony 16M Lux/7M Cash

Bello 9M Lux/6M Cash

KC 7.5M Lux/2M Cash

Raf 6.25M Lux/2M Cash

Whitlock 4.6M Lux/7.25M Cash

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I disagree that it's harder to string hits together. Even with all the changes, there was only a difference in 5% in hits from 1985 to 2026. Is that 5% decrease really that big of a rally killer? I'm not so sure. It's just that teams have moved towards launch angle and exit velo to maximize EVERY at bat rather than simply use what worked for 100 years (moving runners over, going oppo intentionally). Unfortunately for fans, there's no measurable difference in runs scored between the mid 80's and now (including letting pitchers hit) when you factor in the extra 4 teams that are now in the league. Now, it's a station to station game where not much happens until there is a big swing. Games are a lot less exciting IMO, a lot less action going on inning by inning. 

It kinda reminds me of how basketball is ruined by everyone standing around waiting to shoot a 3.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, notin said:

I have an absolutely no problem giving Mayer a chance, especially since Houston wanted Abreu for Paredes. Marte is a better short term solution, but I’m ok with keeping Mayer for long term…

I understand trading kids away, but long-term success is built on development.  And if I were to trade away highly-ranked prospects, I'd prefer it to be for a black swan SP like Crochet.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Lux tax vs revenue in JH's pocket looks better for JH.

Cash paid vs revenue in JH's pocket looks worse for JH. Maybe?

JH can/will trade any contract once he doesn't like it anymore. 

Crochet 28M Lux/28M Cash

Anthony 16M Lux/7M Cash

Bello 9M Lux/6M Cash

KC 7.5M Lux/2M Cash

Raf 6.25M Lux/2M Cash

Whitlock 4.6M Lux/7.25M Cash

Fred will choose Cash, then. Whatever it takes to make JH look worse.

Later, when these guys are paid more than their AAV, he'll switch to AAV.

I like to use AAV, and not to make JH look good. I actually agree that he should spend more, but because it represents the total money per year given out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

One thing hard not to notice so far this spring: whenever Braiden Ward gets in the game, he's almost instantly on second base (and not as a pinch-runner for somebody already there). 

When Duran gets chugging, better get out of his way.

But Ward's speed actually looks different -- he flies. 

Sorry if I found something in Spring Training that can't be dismissed as overblown Florida stats.

 

[FredLynn]

14 hours ago, notin said:

And yet you repeatedly compare the Sox to those teams?

Also those other teams occasionally fail doing the “hey let’s throw more money at it” method of team-building.  It’s a risk that needs to be acknowledged, and no amount of due diligence removes it…

I only care about other teams in terms of our position measured in comparison to them. For example, I don't care that team X signed top talent player Y. I care that WE did not get him. I do not care that other teams finished first in the division, I only care that WE did not. I do not care that other teams spend 90% of revenue on player salaries. I only care that we spend LESS than other teams.

[FredLynn]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Then what is the 23rd ranking all about? Rankings are all about our place among the other 29 teams.

See my last post

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

See my last post

It makes no sense. I give up.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

One thing hard not to notice so far this spring: whenever Braiden Ward gets in the game, he's almost instantly on second base (and not as a pinch-runner for somebody already there). 

When Duran gets chugging, better get out of his way.

But Ward's speed actually looks different -- he flies. 

Sorry if I found something in Spring Training that can't be dismissed as overblown Florida stats.

 

He steals bases like Ted Williams. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=willia001ted

[mvp 78]

Braiden Ward's Prospect Savant page is the ying yang of EV & Speed. 

[FredLynn]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It makes no sense. I give up.

Good plan if you cannot understand my logic.

[mvp 78]

Braiden Ward EV 76.4 mph 

IKF EV 84.6 mph worst in MLB '25 

Someone check Ward's bat. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Braiden Ward EV 76.4 mph 

IKF EV 84.6 mph worst in MLB '25 

Someone check Ward's bat. 

I can't find their stats, but I bet Ward's Exit Velocity running out of the batter's box is faster than IKF's.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Good plan if you cannot understand my logic.

That's not what it is.

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's not what it is.

Why? Because you can't understand it? Lets try it a different way: I don't really care if the Orioles make the playoffs or if they signed Alonso. I care if we DO NOT make the playoffs or sign him. If you can't understand this I give up.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Lux tax vs revenue in JH's pocket looks better for JH.

Cash paid vs revenue in JH's pocket looks worse for JH. Maybe?

JH can/will trade any contract once he doesn't like it anymore. 

Crochet 28M Lux/28M Cash

Anthony 16M Lux/7M Cash

Bello 9M Lux/6M Cash

KC 7.5M Lux/2M Cash

Raf 6.25M Lux/2M Cash

Whitlock 4.6M Lux/7.25M Cash

The tax really only matters for the penalty, which isnt as bad as people think.  I say, adjust cash for the penalty and use that.  E.G. Lets say our cash payroll for this year is 280m, but due to lux tax penatlies , we end up paying 310.  310/280 = 110.7%.  So take Romans cash and apply a 110.7 (the extra 10.7 for the penalties) and it becomes 7.75M.  

Going 100% by the tax hit isnt a different way of looking at it, its flat wrong.  The tax hit only matters for the tax, so just apply a premium to the cash paid to account for the penalty

The cost of Roman this year is 7.75 using my example.  

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Good plan if you cannot understand my logic.

I’ve followed your logic right from the very beginning and it wasn’t that hard to do. Of course if you over analyze things it will go right over your head, which it seems that it has for some.🤔

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I can't find their stats, but I bet Ward's Exit Velocity running out of the batter's box is faster than IKF's.

Cannon vs Ping Pong Shooter

[notin]

2 hours ago, jad said:

Did you hit yours?  or did the irony circuit turn off?

To be clear, In my view small -ball works best when the OTHER team is playing small ball as well, in which case, it is successful approxiimately 50% of the time.

That is, I hate it, and others love it, and when we discuss it at this time of year when there's really nothing interesting to talk about (actual games), we sometimes border on the crazed.

The Brewers won the most games in MLB playing a very aggressive version of small ball.  It works best when done correctly, regardless of whether or not the opponent is doing it…

[FredLynn]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’ve followed your logic right from the very beginning and it wasn’t that hard to do. Of course if you over analyze things it will go right over your head, which it seems that it has for some.🤔

Its really not that complicated. It comes down to where the Flops are relative to other teams rather than how we and they got there. If we are spending, for example. just 10% of our revenue on player salaries and another team is splending, for example 80% on salaries (yes, this is an extreme example used just to make a point) then that means our owner is cheap compared to other teams' owners. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

The Brewers won the most games in MLB playing a very aggressive version of small ball.  It works best when done correctly, regardless of whether or not the opponent is doing it…

3rd in runs

22nd in HR

2nd in SB

[jad]

Ward looks like he's following the RS playbook on base-running.

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Why? Because you can't understand it? Lets try it a different way: I don't really care if the Orioles make the playoffs or if they signed Alonso. I care if we DO NOT make the playoffs or sign him. If you can't understand this I give up.

Your major point is where we rank in revenue vs spending. That means other teams matter- their revenue and their spending.

Whether the O's make the playoffs are not is unrelated, but you did project them ahead of the Sox, when you predicted us to finish in 4th place, which is yet another position based on other teams mattering.

This is the "logic" that is not logic. It's not about me not understanding. I fully understand all of your contradictions to the letter.

The goalposts have been moved so often, they've added wheels to them.

[FredLynn]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Your major point is where we rank in revenue vs spending. That means other teams matter- their revenue and their spending.

Whether the O's make the playoffs are not is unrelated, but you did project them ahead of the Sox, when you predicted us to finish in 4th place, which is yet another position based on other teams matetring.

The goalposts have been moved so often, they've added wheels to them.

You still don't get it. I DO care if the Orioles finish above us and make the playoffs instead of us. I DO NOT care if the reason they did it is because they signed Alonso. I'm more concerned with how WE do relative to other teams than the details of how we got there. If our owner is too cheap to spend a higher percentage of revenue than some other teams (and it results in us finishing lower relative to other teams in the standings) thats a problem.

[mvp 78]

28 minutes ago, jad said:

Ward looks like he's following the RS playbook on base-running.

You just gotta be aggressive in the top of the 1st in ST when runs are at a premium.