Boston Red Sox 2026 Win Total

[notin]

18 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I posted something similar right after you posted yours.  That's why I skim over his posts.  If one wants a real discussion, they have to deal in real facts.

FWIW, TO did almost the identical thing the RS did.

• We had almost identical scoring teams.
• They lost Bichette and we lost Bregman.
• They made their biggest acquisition a #2 SP, and we made our biggest acquisition a #2 SP.
• They added Ponce to the rotation and we added Gray.
• They added Okamoto to the IF and we added Durbin.

We're running in lock step, but Fred wants to pretend like TO did great and we didn't.  Maybe it is my accounting background, but I expect a little analyses.

I think the analysis is “Boston did not make the moves I wanted so they disappointed me.  I don’t care what Toronto did so they met minimal, barely existent expectations.”

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Duran might be, though.  Could have another one (dangerous bat), but for all the ship out Duran trades that didnt happen, Im starting to think he might be the saving acquisition. 

I was one of the original "Duran-for-a-#2" guys, but the better we get at other positions, the more comfortable I am with Duran as the DH.  I'd still move him for Burns, Chandler, maybe Seth Hernandez.  But now I'm comfortable letting the buyers come to me. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I think the analysis is “Boston did not make the moves I wanted so they disappointed me.  I don’t care what Toronto did so they met minimal, barely existent expectations.”

That's usually the case.  It's not so much the lack of moves, but I guess maybe most posters have their favorite non-Red Sox players.  But it feels kind of silly to lose your $schitt because the RS spent $26M on Suarez instead of $31M on Alonso.

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I was one of the original "Duran-for-a-#2" guys, but the better we get at other positions, the more comfortable I am with Duran as the DH.  I'd still move him for Burns, Chandler, maybe Seth Hernandez.  But now I'm comfortable letting the buyers come to me. 

Since we now have a #2, it frees up Duran to be traded for prospects. 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If they didn't acquire Gray or Suarez, some people would be talking themselves into Bello's new changeup. 

Id be talking about Tolles new 2 seam

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Id be talking about Tolles new 2 seam

Doesn't he need an offspeed pitch? 

[drewski6]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Doesn't he need an offspeed pitch? 

Sobering, but to your original point- Ranger and Gray give him more time to find it.

[Duran Is The Man]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Since we now have a #2, it frees up Duran to be traded for prospects. 

no.

[alsoason]

Every thread here turns into a free for all, I thought this was a thread about how many games they would win this year??? 

[Kimmi]

On 2/20/2026 at 5:40 PM, FredLynn said:

Well of course! The first goal is to get into the playoffs. But if the result is like last year I for one am not going to satisfied. Last year it was ok. This year we should demand more.

It's always disappointing when your team is eliminated.  However, if the team makes it to the playoffs, then I don't think you can really fault the GM if they don't go all the way.  There is too much randomness involved in the postseason to really lay blame on anyone.

That said, Breslow's job is not finished for the season.  There is always room for midseason assessments and improvements, but I am happy with how the team sits entering the season.

[Kimmi]

On 2/20/2026 at 6:13 PM, vegasbob said:

If for no other reason than his injury history.  Try to get Mayer through a full season  of maybe 100 games, plus some PH or late inning defensive appearances

Yes, it makes sense.  I'm still one who would like to see the Red Sox commit to Mayer as an everyday player, but all the points being made about why he should be platooned are valid.

[Kimmi]

On 2/22/2026 at 3:10 PM, notin said:

Baseball Digest had their 2026 preview, with their predictions for AL pistseason

AL East

1. Toronto 

2. Boston (WC)

Yankees in 4th, missing the postseason

 

My favorite prediction so far.

I wonder what the temperature is like on Yankees forums.  My understanding is that the fans are not exactly thrilled about the Yankees offseason.

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I wonder what the temperature is like on Yankees forums.  My understanding is that the fans are not exactly thrilled about the Yankees offseason.

How can anyone be proud of an offseason mantra of "Run it back," especially when it's not a ring year.

[Kimmi]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

How can anyone be proud of an offseason mantra of "Run it back," especially when it's not a ring year.

When you already have a very good team, I think I am more apt to accept this philosophy than most people are.  I don't think that you have to make changes just for the sake of making changes.  Also, I think there's something to be said for the cohesiveness of the team being largely the same as the previous year.

I get that the Yankees could have made some moves and made themselves even better (but at what cost?)  But even with their relative lack of moves, they are projected by most to win the division.  If I were a Yankees fan, I couldn't be too unhappy about that.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

When you already have a very good team, I think I am more apt to accept this philosophy than most people are.  I don't think that you have to make changes just for the sake of making changes.  Also, I think there's something to be said for the cohesiveness of the team being largely the same as the previous year.

I get that the Yankees could have made some moves and made themselves even better (but at what cost?)  But even with their relative lack of moves, they are projected by most to win the division.  If I were a Yankees fan, I couldn't be too unhappy about that.

The Yankees fans that I know in person seem to be happy and the ones I see online seem to not be.  Im not sure what to make of it, but a few people have told me that online forums tend to skew negative because people are passionate and that makes some nervous/anxious (if Freds expectations are always 0, he never has to face disappointment) 

Ive never been convinced that its true that online fans skew more negative than overall fans but Ive heard it a bunch by people I respect. Could also be that the count of yankess fans i know in real life whom i asked the thoughts on the yankees isnt particularly high.

Personally, I think the Yankees are a top 2-5 team entering 2026, and the Red Sox are somewhere between 4-8.  The Red Sox will have elite pitching, so that keeps em high, even if theres injuries to pitchers other than 2 (I will not name them but one is a relief pitcher and both their last names begin with "c")

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Since we now have a #2, it frees up Duran to be traded for prospects. 

Not necessarily.  A guy like Burns or Chandler pushes Oviedo, Sandy, etc., to the BP.  That is still worth a trade.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

(if Freds expectations are always 0, he never has to face disappointment) 

An overall interesting post. I've always thought Yankee fans ridiculously bitter viewing every season they don't win it all as a total failure, as if anything else that happens -- first place, postseason series wins, MVPs, Cy Youngs, All-Stars etc. -- is meaningless. 

Those feats have meaning to a lot of fans, and can be fun times for those rooting for their favorites.

I only quoted your line about Fred because I look at it as the opposite -- if by O you mean Optimistic -- because those who are always Pessimistic can't really be disappointed if they're wrong, because that would mean good things actually happened. 

Pessimists like to set low expectations because then they can possibly be pleasantly surprised. 

Then again, we could probably do an all-day thread trying to define the difference between those who are pessimistic and we Realists...

[notin]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

My favorite prediction so far.

I wonder what the temperature is like on Yankees forums.  My understanding is that the fans are not exactly thrilled about the Yankees offseason.

It’s been status quo, but they did win 94 games last year…

[notin]

19 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I was one of the original "Duran-for-a-#2" guys, but the better we get at other positions, the more comfortable I am with Duran as the DH.  I'd still move him for Burns, Chandler, maybe Seth Hernandez.  But now I'm comfortable letting the buyers come to me. 

I was one of the original “How exactly does that work?” guys.  

Any team acquiring Duran is trying to win; teams trying to win don’t trade #2 starters…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I was one of the original “How exactly does that work?” guys.  

Any team acquiring Duran is trying to win; teams trying to win don’t trade #2 starters…

It's why he's still on the roster. 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I was one of the original “How exactly does that work?” guys.  

Any team acquiring Duran is trying to win; teams trying to win don’t trade #2 starters…

Right - those buyer-buyer trades so rarely end up happening.

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s been status quo, but they did win 94 games last year…

True, but standing pat is not usually a good plan, even for great championship teams.

Ages:

38 Goldschmidt

36 Stanton, Hill

35 Cole (begins year on IL), Cruz

34 Yarbrough

33 Judge, Rodon (begins year on IL)

32 Fried, Blackburn

31 Bednar. McMahon

30 Bellinger, Bird, Bido, Escarra

I see about 8 or 9 of their top 12-14 kep players who are over 30.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Right - those buyer-buyer trades so rarely end up happening.

How many buyers have #2 starters to give away? 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I was one of the original “How exactly does that work?” guys.  

Any team acquiring Duran is trying to win; teams trying to win don’t trade #2 starters…

It didn't have to be a 'today' #2.  Wrestling away #2's is almost impossible, but both Pitt and Cincy have great rotations.  There is no way they trade Chandler or Burns straight up for Duran, and I have no idea how to make up the difference.  I did think Seth Hernandez might've been an option.  He's at least two years away.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It didn't have to be a 'today' #2.  

Right, trade Duran for prospects. I've been saying this.

[moonslav59]

It seems that other teams do not value Duran as highly as Brez & Co. Otherwise, I think he'd be traded by now.

Take the Astros: they have a glut of infielders and need a LHB OF'er. We have a glut of OF'ers of which all 4 hit RHPs better than LHPs, even Rafaela.

I'm sure we had talks centered around our OF'ers. Word was, HOU wanted Abreu NOT Duran, and I'm not sure it was all about his extra year of control.

Of course GMs value players differently, and they assess their needs differently, too, and the HOU-BOS situation is a fine example of how just how hard it is to come to an agreement on a trade.

I'm pretty sure HOU would want Duran, but just not enough to give up Paredes and _____. I suggested King or Janek or even Sousa or Abreu, but I'm not sure that was ever discussed, or if both sides would agree to any combination listed.

We got Durbin without having to part with Duran or Abreu, so maybe Brez made the right call.

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It seems that other teams do not value Duran as highly as Brez & Co. Otherwise, I think he'd be traded by now.

131 wRC+ '24 (665 LHP OPS)

111 wRC+ '25 (676 Away OPS, 600 LHP OPS)

Maybe other GM's just are worried that he's not a fulltime OFer and is trending in the wrong direction? Maybe they also don't like his personality and the distractions that have come with having him on the team. 🎾

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We got Durbin without having to part with Duran or Abreu, so maybe Brez made the right call.

Taking nothing for granted, but having Abreu + Durbin seems mech better than having Paredes + Harrison + ???.  And I like Paredes.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

131 wRC+ '24 (665 LHP OPS)

111 wRC+ '25 (676 Away OPS, 600 LHP OPS)

Maybe other GM's just are worried that he's not a fulltime OFer and is trending in the wrong direction? Maybe they also don't like his personality and the distractions that have come with having him on the team. 🎾

I think that is exactly why other GMs are leary of trading top talent for Duran- not to mention his defensive issues.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Taking nothing for granted, but having Abreu + Durbin seems mech better than having Paredes + Harrison + ???.  And I like Paredes.

On paper, the Durbin deal looks like a steal.

I still think Duran as a LF'er for HOU (or some other team) should be worth more than he is as a DH for us, but since we did not upgrade the offense anywhere but 1B, I'm fine with keeping Duran & Abreu.

Paredes at 3B and Durbin at 2B would have worked, too.