Sox Trade For Milwaukee 3B Caleb Durbin

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Allegedly the asking price was too high......I'd be interested in knowing what "too high" was. 

I don't see any way on God's good earth that we had any shot at all.  Even with the injuries and strikeouts, Neto is a 5+ WAR player, with 6-7 WAR upside.

I think the Angels' ask would start with Arias, Witherspoon and Tolle.  If I were the Pirates, I'd start with Seth Hernandez, and might go up to Bubba Chandler.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They could change it up, but they won't. We already know it in our hearts. 

They did say that Story wore down at the end last season, so I expect especially with IKF around Story will get more time off this year.

[JoeBrady]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Always says something that people can come back to.

People pay far too much attention to what GMs say.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

People pay far too much attention to what GMs say.

If he said MORE, we'd pay attention LESS. He rarely has these press conferences so they become a big deal to the media. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They did say that Story wore down at the end last season, so I expect especially with IKF around Story will get more time off this year.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't see any way on God's good earth that we had any shot at all.  Even with the injuries and strikeouts, Neto is a 5+ WAR player, with 6-7 WAR upside.

I think the Angels' ask would start with Arias, Witherspoon and Tolle.  If I were the Pirates, I'd start with Seth Hernandez, and might go up to Bubba Chandler.

I think there starting asking price would be Mayer, but BTV accepts Abreu/Tolle/Valera

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't see any way on God's good earth that we had any shot at all.  Even with the injuries and strikeouts, Neto is a 5+ WAR player, with 6-7 WAR upside.

I think the Angels' ask would start with Arias, Witherspoon and Tolle.  If I were the Pirates, I'd start with Seth Hernandez, and might go up to Bubba Chandler.

I'd agree that 5+ for 4 years is pretty damn valuable.

I'm not sure what the "boatload" was demanded, but I'd be thinking about some very good prospects to offer.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

They did say that Story wore down at the end last season, so I expect especially with IKF around Story will get more time off this year.

Between IKF, Rodgers, Monasterio, and Seigler it's like the Sox were trying to corner the utility/back up infielder market. 

Obviously not the sexy move we've all been waiting for but not something to discount as well.  Most teams are going to see other guys get playing time throughout the year due to injuries.  To some extent all teams are going to have SOME injuries.  I do think there is value in getting some guys that can put up .5-1.5 WAR from that group.  Other teams, and this team in the past have seen bad negative war players take up those roles. 

 

[Hugh2]

Neto Fwar the last 3 years:

3.1

3.5

1.1 (1/2 year)

THat's really good......that's not great

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd agree that 5+ for 4 years is pretty damn valuable.

I'm not sure what the "boatload" was demanded, but I'd be thinking about some very good prospects to offer.

This is what I want to know.  Was the price really unreasonable? like were they asking for Roman Anthony? because then I don't blame them for hanging up the phone.  But if the cost was reasonable but Breslow is just holding on then my opinion could change. 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is what I want to know.  Was the price really unreasonable? like were they asking for Roman Anthony? because then I don't blame them for hanging up the phone.  But if the cost was reasonable but Breslow is just holding on then my opinion could change. 

100%. I've made some hefty offers on BTV, so I'm not shy on giving to get.

I went into this winter hoping we spent every ounce of resources (money and prospects) on just 3 players- maybe 4. Quality over quantity. We spent years building up the quantity (or depth.) It was time to fill 3-4 needs with top quality players.

Now, we see massive depth moves, and I'm not against 3 for 3 trades that improve depth where we need it, but we came up a little short on the 3-4 quality players I hoped for. (Maybe I should have said 1-2 high quality and 1-3 quality)

Suarez- high quality and filled one of our top 3-4 needs: check.

Contreras- quality but not the high quality big bat I wanted: reluctant check on the quality ledger.

Gray- quality but we needed a 2B/3Bman and or powerbat: reluctant check that the cost may have prevented us from doing better at power bat and or 2B/3B.

Durbin: a decent get at a need slot. (He may be quality, but he's not proven anything, yet.)

Oviedo- into the 5th player range, and again, we got Suarez and Gray, so...??? (Okay, we used SP depth to get Durbin and Gray and Contreras, so we needed some replenishment.) Okay with this move, but no quality "check" given.

I K-F: decnet move but not high quality. Up to 6, now

Infield depth: #7-8-9...

Once again we go for quantity over quality, when we really just had 3-4 major slots to fill and fill well.

That being said, we did get better and as Cora said, "We are a more complete team, now."

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

• Suarez
• Contreras
• Gray
• Durbin
• Oviedo
• I K-F:

I haven't checked yet, but has anyone added as much as we have?  And is it even close?

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Neto Fwar the last 3 years:

3.1

3.5

1.1 (1/2 year)

THat's really good......that's not great

Yup. 

[mvp 78]

38 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

This is what I want to know.  Was the price really unreasonable? like were they asking for Roman Anthony? because then I don't blame them for hanging up the phone.  But if the cost was reasonable but Breslow is just holding on then my opinion could change. 

We have no idea and may never know. 

[Nick]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

100%. I've made some hefty offers on BTV, so I'm not shy on giving to get.

I went into this winter hoping we spent every ounce of resources (money and prospects) on just 3 players- maybe 4. Quality over quantity. We spent years building up the quantity (or depth.) It was time to fill 3-4 needs with top quality players.

Now, we see massive depth moves, and I'm not against 3 for 3 trades that improve depth where we need it, but we came up a little short on the 3-4 quality players I hoped for. (Maybe I should have said 1-2 high quality and 1-3 quality)

Suarez- high quality and filled one of our top 3-4 needs: check.

Contreras- quality but not the high quality big bat I wanted: reluctant check on the quality ledger.

Gray- quality but we needed a 2B/3Bman and or powerbat: reluctant check that the cost may have prevented us from doing better at power bat and or 2B/3B.

Durbin: a decent get at a need slot. (He may be quality, but he's not proven anything, yet.)

Oviedo- into the 5th player range, and again, we got Suarez and Gray, so...??? (Okay, we used SP depth to get Durbin and Gray and Contreras, so we needed some replenishment.) Okay with this move, but no quality "check" given.

I K-F: decnet move but not high quality. Up to 6, now

Infield depth: #7-8-9...

Once again we go for quantity over quality, when we really just had 3-4 major slots to fill and fill well.

That being said, we did get better and as Cora said, "We are a more complete team, now."

Our player acquisition mode appears to be to load up on young talent then exchange them for better talent. 

Examples include players with long term contracts such as Rafaela and Bello. Assuming they are on upward trajectory production wise, it's easier to trade them if an opportunity arises to upgrade the team. I would put our newly acquired infielder from Milwaukee in that category also. Six years of team control is sweet. Perhaps in couple of years we may be able to package a combination of three players and others in exchange for another top of the line pitcher.  

I do like the decisiveness of Bres to package away some of our reduncy.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I haven't checked yet, but has anyone added as much as we have?  And is it even close?

We did subtract a lot, even not counting Devers, but in terms of AAV added, we have to be top 3-5, but we must believe JH has shown an empty wallet.

When you count what STL is paying Gray and Contreras, the combined AAV of our actual salary paid roster is even higher than 7th.

[Nick]

We're only about $2M above the second luxury tax threshold. I think we'll move someone, Sandoval maybe to get under it.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Nick said:

Our player acquisition mode appears to be to load up on young talent then move up on quality chart. 

Examples include players with long term contracts such as Rafaela and Bello. Assuming they are on upward trajectory production wise, it's easier to trade them if an opportunity arises to upgrade the team. I would put our newly acquired infielder from Milwaukee in that category also. Six years of team control is sweet. Perhaps in couple of years we may be able to package a combination of three players and others in exchange for another top of the line pitcher.  

I do like the decisiveness of Bres to package away some of our reduncy.

This is no small change in trends. The biggest beefs on this and past sites has been over the loss of our stars to free agency. Some of the talk focused on our inability to lock up Betts, Bogey and others before they became FAs. Well, now we have done it to 4 of our best young players- 5, if you count Crochet. I'd call Devers #6, but we saw what we did there.

Since DD left, we've signed two players to long term contracts, and neither was at or very close to top pay: Story & Masa. Now, we just signed Suarez- the first large and long FA pitcher signing since Price.

Sure, big picture we are still lacking in some areas. I'd like to see the no giving a NTC relic banished. I'd like to see more creativity with deferred payments but not if it lets a key target walk away. 

I'm really not upset about choosing to never grossly overpay for top talent. I wasn't for paying even what we offered Bregman, but the reported offer to Alonso was embarrassing. I'm not sure what is worse: thinking it was a fair or thinking it was a competitive offer. Either way, we looked pretty stupid.

We've spent a long time overhauling the roster, and with the addition of Breslow, we have quickly transformed the team into a pitching dynamo from top to near bottom of the system. I'm not sure any team has ever turned a corner that sharply.

We look at our offense and cringe or question, depending on how optimistic or pessimist we are, but almost every good player we have is locked up for 3+ years. When has that ever happened to a good Sox team?

There are some things to admire about this management team, if we look for it.

We all know about the bad and the ugly.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

I think there starting asking price would be Mayer, but BTV accepts Abreu/Tolle/Valera

To be fair, he only suggested where the ask starts, not where it gets negotiated to…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Nick said:

We're only about $2M above the second luxury tax threshold. I think we'll move someone, Sandoval maybe to get under it.

It's hard to know what the true number is, and I'm not even sure the Sox know.

Maybe the third line is the limit. We may add salary at the deadline.

We've traded away a lot of pitching depth, already. We've added some back in trades and the Suarez signin pushed almost everyone back a notch, but I'm not sure we can afford to trade away Sandoval. Last year we had nice depth too and traded away Priester- later we had to trade for D May and ended up staring de Leon in a game, too. We also added early and Tolle to the roster, when very few expected them to be needed in 2025.

[Kimmi]

20 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

wait til we start having problems scoring runs and lose a few games 1-0 or 2-1. the i told-you-so's will get louder each time. 

Those low scoring games are the most frustrating to watch, no doubt.  It stinks to "waste" a great pitching performance.  That said, I will take a top pitching staff and mediocre offense over an elite offense and mediocre pitching any day of the week.

Hopefully, we will find ways to outscore our opponents far more often than not.  Please cut down on those very non-productive at bats.

[Nick]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know what the true number is, and I'm not even sure the Sox know.

Maybe the third line is the limit. We may add salary at the deadline.

We've traded away a lot of pitching depth, already. We've added some back in trades and the Suarez signin pushed almost everyone back a notch, but I'm not sure we can afford to trade away Sandoval. Last year we had nice depth too and traded away Priester- later we had to trade for D May and ended up staring de Leon in a game, too. We also added early and Tolle to the roster, when very few expected them to be needed in 2025.

I would like to know if Sandoval and Kutter are ready to go from day 1?

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Nick said:

I would like to know if Sandoval and Kutter are ready to go from day 1?

soxprospects.com no longer lists them as beginning the season on the IL, for whatever that is worth.

If Sandoval is expected to start the year on the IL, what is his trade value worth?

[vjcsmoke]

The main piece in this trade was Harrison so this is essentially Devers for Durbin.

Durbin is a 25 year old 3rd baseman who had a 2.8 war last season and hit slightly over .700 OPS.

He was graded as a top 10 defensive 3rd baseman in the NL in his rookie season.

If we assume Durbin can progress his game offensively to at least .750-800 OPS we get a downgrade at offense for 3rd base but an upgrade at defense on a cost controlled contract.

He's not a big bat but he does feature better speed on the basepaths and better defense.

Feels like the Red Sox addressed the 3rd base position adequately. Even if we take a net loss on the offense, we gain on the defensive side.

[mvp 78]

The Devers trade was a straight salary dump. Unfair to link Durbin to him at this point. Most likely Durbin ends up being a 2b here than a 3b anyway. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Devers trade was a straight salary dump. Unfair to link Durbin to him at this point. Most likely Durbin ends up being a 2b here than a 3b anyway. 

Comparing Devers to Durbin is literally the worst take ever....these types of takes really really really need to die. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Comparing Devers to Durbin is literally the worst take ever....these types of takes really really really need to die. 

Dubin will be compared to Devers, Neto, Marte, Paredes, Hoerner, Shaw. If any one of them has a really good season, someone gets to gloat for no good reason. Just brainless. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Devers trade was a straight salary dump. Unfair to link Durbin to him at this point. Most likely Durbin ends up being a 2b here than a 3b anyway. 

If one wants to look at this like Devers for Durbin, then count the money, too:

Devers for Durbin IK-F and Suarez plus another FA after Suarez and I K-F are gone.

[Hugh2]

It literally makes zero sense. 

Lets say I trade a $100 baseball card for a $1 dollar baseball card. 

That was a dumb trade, I made a dumb trade. 

Lets say I take that baseball card that is only worth $1 dollar and I find a guy who gives me a $10 card for it. 

I made a good trade, comparing that $10 to the $100 card is stupid, very stupid.  You can say that initial trade was a bad trade all on it's own but it's just absurdly stupid. 

I shouldn't say stupid, a lot of people do it and the ones saying it aren't stupid, I'm not saying you're stupid just the comparison is. 

But I suppose us human beings have an evolutionary instinct for pattern recognition and a tendency to connect things that aren't or shouldn't always be connected. It's kept us alive for hundreds of thousands of years.  But it's also why people see Jesus in the clouds, Elvis in a sweat stain, or think Durbin should be compared to Devers. 

[Hugh2]

We trade Nomar Garciaparra for Orlando Cabrera, who we lost to FA, but with the compensation pick we drafted Jed Lowrie, we trade Lowrie for Joel Hanrahan.  

So we essentially trade Nomar for Joel Hanrahan.....what a disgrace.