Red Sox Sign 3B, 2B, SS, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Big fan of Sandlin were you? 

No, but Im also not a fan of blowing the budget, using a lot of prospect capital and coming away with what did you say the 13th-16th best offense after 7 years of rebuilding.

Hicks + Sandlin for IKF , Im fine with in a vacuum.  And its not even a fair comparison because we saved 6mx2 for dealing Hicks and IKF is only 6mx1 and we got a prospect back.

Im not seeing this signing as a big win, Im seeing it as more "who needs to hit?"  Im not sure who that next bat is going to be or if that bat will come without having to send a bat back the other way.

At this point Im half expecting that if we even get a starting caliber infielder, it will be Duran/Abreu going the other way...So I dont think even if we make that swap we get materially better on offense.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's only because the Sox will still lose about 45% of their games. Easy to say that every single time and look like a genius 70 times during the summer. It's not like the NBA where good teams only lose 25% of the time or the NFL where it's 20% of the time.

Its also because teams that have bad offenses struggle to come back when they fall behind.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I know the pitching and defense got better, but personally, for me, it doesnt justify this what I perceive to be a cartoonish level de-prioritization of the offense.

I think that's the issue with Breslow. He overprioritizes the pitching from rookie ball through MLB. It's great that the system was overhauled, but they have forgotten about 50% of the roster TBH, especially when it comes to drafting and the farm. Some will handwave it away and say "oh, the MLB squad is all signed for 3 years" but that ignores everything that happened in 2020-3 when there were no more replacements coming from the farm. This team can't rely solely on trades. Continuing to ignore real FA acquisitions will hurt them in the long run if they can't develop young bats. This isn't the first time I've said this. At least he's grabbed some catchers this year. That's been a pain point for me for a long time. 

It's tremendous that they have been able to move this pitching program forward. I'm all for it. However, just keep developing hitters too. That was their bread and butter for years and years. Moving away from it doesn't make much sense. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Its also because teams that have bad offenses struggle to come back when they fall behind.

From 1-0? No.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If he had an average bat, he'd be getting way more than 1/6M. His last contract was 2/15 which was apparently too high of an AAV for the rest of the league this go around. 

Yes bat won’t give much production especially as a starter.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's the issue with Breslow. He overprioritizes the pitching from rookie ball through MLB. It's great that the system was overhauled, but they have forgotten about 50% of the roster TBH, especially when it comes to drafting and the farm. Some will handwave it away and say "oh, the MLB squad is all signed for 3 years" but that ignores everything that happened in 2020-3 when there were no more replacements coming from the farm. This team can't rely solely on trades. Continuing to ignore real FA acquisitions will hurt them in the long run if they can't develop young bats. This isn't the first time I've said this. At least he's grabbed some catchers this year. That's been a pain point for me for a long time. 

It's tremendous that they have been able to move this pitching program forward. I'm all for it. However, just keep developing hitters too. That was their bread and butter for years and years. Moving away from it doesn't make much sense. 

I'm not sure it's right to say they've moved away from it. We'll know more the way they approach this years' draft, but they may have overcorrected. The system badly needed pitching, and pitching is the most valuable commodity, especially in trades, so I get that they moved more towards that, but they also need to replenish the offence side of things now, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

From 1-0? No.

No problem: get someone on base, steal 2nd, IKF bunts him to 3rd, and then all the Red Sox' contact hitteR drives him in... oh, wait, Yoshida got cut?

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's the issue with Breslow. He overprioritizes the pitching from rookie ball through MLB. It's great that the system was overhauled, but they have forgotten about 50% of the roster TBH, especially when it comes to drafting and the farm. Some will handwave it away and say "oh, the MLB squad is all signed for 3 years" but that ignores everything that happened in 2020-3 when there were no more replacements coming from the farm. This team can't rely solely on trades. Continuing to ignore real FA acquisitions will hurt them in the long run if they can't develop young bats. This isn't the first time I've said this. At least he's grabbed some catchers this year. That's been a pain point for me for a long time. 

It's tremendous that they have been able to move this pitching program forward. I'm all for it. However, just keep developing hitters too. That was their bread and butter for years and years. Moving away from it doesn't make much sense. 

Quite a change in philosophy from old Red Sox teams to have what looks like this much pitching depth, but don’t have the bats.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No, but Im also not a fan of blowing the budget, using a lot of prospect capital and coming away with what did you say the 13th-16th best offense after 7 years of rebuilding.

Hicks + Sandlin for IKF , Im fine with in a vacuum.  And its not even a fair comparison because we saved 6mx2 for dealing Hicks and IKF is only 6mx1 and we got a prospect back.

Im not seeing this signing as a big win, Im seeing it as more "who needs to hit?"  Im not sure who that next bat is going to be or if that bat will come without having to send a bat back the other way.

At this point Im half expecting that if we even get a starting caliber infielder, it will be Duran/Abreu going the other way...So I dont think even if we make that swap we get materially better on offense.

It was 7 years of rebuilding now? Time flies I guess.

Guys like Sandlin are fungible. He was famed for having "great stuff" but could strike anyone out. He got hit around a lot and really struggled going deep into games. When they put him into the pen, it was ugly. His fastball and slider got rocked. 

They aren't going to hold onto every prospect. They just can't. There aren't enough innings in AAA to develop these guys. They need to know who to hold onto and who to move before their value drops off a cliff. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm not sure it's right to say they've moved away from it. We'll know more the way they approach this years' draft, but they may have overcorrected. The system badly needed pitching, and pitching is the most valuable commodity, especially in trades, so I get that they moved more towards that, but they also need to replenish the offence side of things now, too.

The past two drafts under Breslow:

'24 14 pitchers, 6 hitters

'25 14 pitchers, 6 hitters

Relying on DSL guys to fill up your MLB roster doesn't work as you have a higher success rate from the draft than from DSL. 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they don't get another guy, it's better than doing nothing. However, if they don't get another guy, the offense is not good enough unless Mayer really turns it around this season and hits 775 or something. Story will still be near 100 OPS+. 2b is going to be some sort of player churn. Contreras should be fine. OF should be fine. No clue about the plan at DH (6th in OPS in '25, but would expect it to be lower this year).

Changes from last season:

1B: better

DH: worse

3B: worse

They were 11th in wRC+ in '25. Maybe 13-16th this year? I'd expect them to fall out of the top 10 in runs as well.  

Agreed. Our pitching got better. 3B defense got worse, but maybe 1B and 2B can improve.

On offense, we could get worse than .670 at 2B, but forcing DHam off the 26 could make that less likely. I K has never hit over .699, but he's not DHam bad. How much 2B Romy plays could be the deciding factor in a plus or minu on offense at 2B.

I'm thinking Wong is not 2025 bad, nor 2024 good on O, but he'll help with the Catcher OPS, even if Narvaez drops a little. Maybe call catcher a push with upside potential.

We should top the .691 1B OPS- maybe by over 100.

.736 at SS might be hard to match.

.777 at 3B is not as great as we might have expected, since Breggie missed a lot of time. Maybe we lose 25-50 points there.

.823 at DH will be hard to match, but if the LH'd bats (Masa & Casas) can hit .775-.800 and the RHBs (Romy & Campbell) can, too, maybe dropping 25-50 points here and at 3B can be made up for at 1B.

Let's call the catcher and keystone positions a push.

How about the OF?

.792 overall in 2025, but we used Anthony at DH, and he missed half a year. Rafaela may regress, but I think we can beat .792, so maybe there is a sliver of hope.

.859 Anthony- more PAs can be the boost we need.

.786 Abreu- entering peak prime, so maybe .800+

.774 Duran- bring back some of that 2024 magic?

.708 Rafaela- can he continue his growth?

Maybe the offense can stay about the same. Maybe not.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No problem: get someone on base, steal 2nd, IKF bunts him to 3rd, and then all the Red Sox' contact hitteR drives him in... oh, wait, Yoshida got cut?

If they cut Masa, they can sign Marcell Ozuna. 

[Hugh2]

While I still think adding offense up the middle is a concern that has gone unaddressed I think people are underselling the 2026 offense.  I don't think it's going to be as bad as people think it is. 

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I think that's the issue with Breslow. He overprioritizes the pitching from rookie ball through MLB. It's great that the system was overhauled, but they have forgotten about 50% of the roster TBH, especially when it comes to drafting and the farm. Some will handwave it away and say "oh, the MLB squad is all signed for 3 years" but that ignores everything that happened in 2020-3 when there were no more replacements coming from the farm. This team can't rely solely on trades. Continuing to ignore real FA acquisitions will hurt them in the long run if they can't develop young bats. This isn't the first time I've said this. At least he's grabbed some catchers this year. That's been a pain point for me for a long time. 

It's tremendous that they have been able to move this pitching program forward. I'm all for it. However, just keep developing hitters too. That was their bread and butter for years and years. Moving away from it doesn't make much sense. 

Good post. I use to be a fan of developing pitching/signing hitters for a few reasons - some of which have changed (e.g. pitching going higher in draft these days) and Im more flexible about it these days whether the bats come from development or free agency.

Generally I dont like counting on internal free agent bats until they prove that you can (that doesnt mean I dont work them in, it just means that I dont count on them for big offense until they prove it).  Roman has, so Im obviously fine with him hitting top 3, Mayer has not, so Im hesitant to be like "offense will come from mayer", not ruling it out, but Im uncomfortable how much we need Mayers bat to step forward.

[Deja Doh]

Another meaningless signing by Breslow.  IKF is an okay hitter, but lacks power and speed.  He may not help us lose games, but he's not going to help us win games.  This Red Sox team has no proven power.  

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The past two drafts under Breslow:

'24 14 pitchers, 6 hitters

'25 14 pitchers, 6 hitters

Relying on DSL guys to fill up your MLB roster doesn't work as you have a higher success rate from the draft than from DSL. 

I don't disagree, but almost all the strength was on the offence side of things. It needed correcting - they may have gone too far, we'll see. 

This years draft - the same happens, we have a problem.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

I don't disagree, but almost all the strength was on the offence side of things. It needed correcting - they may have gone too far, we'll see. 

This years draft - the same happens, we have a problem.

If they were willing to add via FA, it would be less of a problem IMO. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

While I still think adding offense up the middle is a concern that has gone unaddressed I think people are underselling the 2026 offense.  I don't think it's going to be as bad as people think it is. 

It is hard to see it as being the same or better as 2025.

We lost 1150 PAs from 4 of our top 6 batters:

.905 Devers 334 PAs

.859 Anthony 303- returning

.838 Refsnyder 209

.826 Romy 341- returning, perhaps as a straight platoon bat 

.821 Bregman

.790 N Lowe 119

That's hard to ignore, despite adding a .790 Contreras.

One of the top 6 returning might be platooning. #7 Abreu and #8 Duran might be worthy of platooning, too.

 

[Hitch]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

If they were willing to add via FA, it would be less of a problem IMO. 

Yes, as much as I like the Ranger signing in a vacuum, I wish we'd spent it on the offence. Actually, I wish we'd signed Ranger and not traded for Gray and spent that on the offence.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they cut Masa, they can sign Marcell Ozuna. 

Just hope Tolle makes the team. He batted clean-up in college and is easily one of Boston's top five power threats -- with a pro career slugging percentage of 0.00%.

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I'm not sure it's right to say they've moved away from it. We'll know more the way they approach this years' draft, but they may have overcorrected. The system badly needed pitching, and pitching is the most valuable commodity, especially in trades, so I get that they moved more towards that, but they also need to replenish the offence side of things now, too.

Im sure this is just in my head, but boy does it sometimes feel like when we are trying to trade for a pitcher the team selling the pitcher is in the drivers seat (for example, deadline last year - Joe Ryan) but it feels like when we are trying to trade a pitcher for a position player, suddenly it feels like the inverse (for example, trying to line up a trade for Marte or Paredes using primarily young pitching).

Im sure its just in my head kind of like a "you always find [whatever] when you arent looking for it" type thing.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yes, as much as I like the Ranger signing in a vacuum, I wish we'd spent it on the offence. Actually, I wish we'd signed Ranger and not traded for Gray and spent that on the offence.

I'm clearly not inside Breslow's head, but a pivot from Bregman to Ranger really didn't fix the roster issues. It makes the pitching much better, but none of us really see the path forward for the IF. It looks no different than the question marks we've seen since '23. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Good post. I use to be a fan of developing pitching/signing hitters for a few reasons - some of which have changed (e.g. pitching going higher in draft these days) and Im more flexible about it these days whether the bats come from development or free agency.

Generally I dont like counting on internal free agent bats until they prove that you can (that doesnt mean I dont work them in, it just means that I dont count on them for big offense until they prove it).  Roman has, so Im obviously fine with him hitting top 3, Mayer has not, so Im hesitant to be like "offense will come from mayer", not ruling it out, but Im uncomfortable how much we need Mayers bat to step forward.

One great aspect of building up the pitching from top to bottom is that teams often get desperate for pitching and will overpay for one by more than they would for a bat. That means Brez has to be willing to trade pitching.

Looking at his record with the Sox, that has NOT been an issue, and we can start with the Sale trade, mention Priester and end with this winter, where he's traded about a dozen MLB pitchers + top 12 pitching prospects- often for other pitchers, but still.

If he wakes up and smells the coffee, even if it's just Vanilla latte, maybe he trades from our pitching depth and adds a real 2B/3Bman, soon. At this point, we can't afford to trade offense like Duran or Abreu.

Ideally, we find a way to dump Masa and trade from pitching depth for Paredes, Shaw or even 1 year of Hoerner. Baty would not be horrible. With IK on board, maybe adding Vientos would give our offense a boost, but he's got DH or 1B written all over him. (No Masa might give him some time there, though.)

[Hitch]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Im sure this is just in my head, but boy does it sometimes feel like when we are trying to trade for a pitcher the team selling the pitcher is in the drivers seat (for example, deadline last year - Joe Ryan) but it feels like when we are trying to trade a pitcher for a position player, suddenly it feels like the inverse (for example, trying to line up a trade for Marte or Paredes using primarily young pitching).

Im sure its just in my head kind of like a "you always find [whatever] when you arent looking for it" type thing.

Yeah, I mean looking at it logically - we didn't get Ryan as they valued him very high. We also haven't given up Bello as we value him very highly.

That said, we have no idea if we want to trade Bello away outside of some mixed reporting. so hard to judge either way.

I personally like that we are holding out high on player values (or at least seem to be). Bres should be. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm clearly not inside Breslow's head, but a pivot from Bregman to Ranger really didn't fix the roster issues. It makes the pitching much better, but none of us really see the path forward for the IF. It looks no different than the question marks we've seen since '23. 

Again, don't disagree. I reckon he'd take the Gray trade back now if he could, and just send a bit extra and no trade clause to Bregman. We'd certainly be in better shape for my money. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they were willing to add via FA, it would be less of a problem IMO. 

I would use the word capable over willing, but yeah.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm clearly not inside Breslow's head, but a pivot from Bregman to Ranger really didn't fix the roster issues. It makes the pitching much better, but none of us really see the path forward for the IF. It looks no different than the question marks we've seen since '23. 

This whole decade long hole at 2B is absurd. Add the poor defense at almost every infield position for that same decade and it's the biggest headscratcher of all- next to make the fixation with one and done SP'ers looking for rebounds and rehabs.

[Duran Is The Man]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is hard to see it as being the same or better as 2025.

We lost 1150 PAs from 4 of our top 6 batters:

.905 Devers 334 PAs

.859 Anthony 303- returning

.838 Refsnyder 209

.826 Romy 341- returning, perhaps as a straight platoon bat 

.821 Bregman

.790 N Lowe 119

That's hard to ignore, despite adding a .790 Contreras.

One of the top 6 returning might be platooning. #7 Abreu and #8 Duran might be worthy of platooning, too.

 

the 1992 Sox scored just 599 runs -the fewest since 1943 and one of the lowest totals ever. we may challenge that this year.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Yeah, I mean looking at it logically - we didn't get Ryan as they valued him very high. We also haven't given up Bello as we value him very highly.

That said, we have no idea if we want to trade Bello away outside of some mixed reporting. so hard to judge either way.

I personally like that we are holding out high on player values (or at least seem to be). Bres should be. 

I agree. Why sell your players in a deal you don't agree with. It makes more sense to hold onto Duran/Abreu than to give them up in a bad deal. An injury may happen and you'll be glad to have them rather than a mediocre replacement somewhere else. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just hope Tolle makes the team. He batted clean-up in college and is easily one of Boston's top five power threats -- with a pro career slugging percentage of 0.00%.

Cant say Tolle 4 cleanup hasnt crossed my mind.