Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros Engaging in Trade Talks

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

100%.

Maybe Contreras replaced half of Devers. But, we still have Breggie and Ref's bats to repalce.

I have overlooked Refsnyder all winter. But you're right --

-- for this year's offense to just equal '25's, we still need two bats.

Two good bats.

The season will open with our 21-year-old savior in the batting order, the guy who went deep off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner. But what if Roman Anthony, with little protection in the line-up, feels the need to try that vs. every pitcher?

He seems mature, but sometimes the pressures of expectations have a way of causing fluctuations in young men...

[mvp 78]

I think I can safely say that the Sox won't be trading with HOU this offseason if it hasn't happened by now. 

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, FredLynn said:

We do agree on the need for a very good IF offensively. I think that wherever you assign Gray our rotation is one of the best in the game. It’s also deep. I think we are set there and I wouldn’t mess with it. We have a glut in the OF and need to package either Duran or Abreu with some minor league players and some picks for a very good offensive player. Then we are in a position to compete for a ring. So far they haven’t even replaced Devers and Bregman adequately.

If you are moving Duran in a move to fix the offense, that infielder better be like a top 10 offensive player in baseball, because he needs to not only fix the offense, but fix the offense AND overcome the loss of Duran, who is one of our best , if not our best, offensive player.

I dont see it.  

Most trades involving Duran make us worse offensively.  Most Duran for infielder trades I see are more defensive fixes than offensive fixes.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have overlooked Refsnyder all winter. But you're right --

-- for this year's offense to just equal '25's, we still need two bats.

Two good bats.

The season will open with our 21-year-old savior in the batting order, the guy who went deep off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner. But what if Roman Anthony, with little protection in the line-up, feels the need to try that vs. every pitcher?

He seems mature, but sometimes the pressures of expectations have a way of causing fluctuations in young men...

He and we would be better for it.  Anthony NEEDS to incorporate more loft, slug, and punishment into his game.

At present, he makes good contact and controls the zone, but its mostly walks and singles, and we dont have the guys hitting behind him to take advantage of that approach.

Hes a good enough contact hitter instinctively where he shouldnt need to do the things that people need to do to juice their contact metrics, like stay back, choke up, other way.

[FredLynn]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you are moving Duran in a move to fix the offense, that infielder better be like a top 10 offensive player in baseball, because he needs to not only fix the offense, but fix the offense AND overcome the loss of Duran, who is one of our best , if not our best, offensive player.

I dont see it.  

Most trades involving Duran make us worse offensively.  Most Duran for infielder trades I see are more defensive fixes than offensive fixes.

Then trade Abreu. We have too many outfielders and not enough infielders.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have overlooked Refsnyder all winter. But you're right --

-- for this year's offense to just equal '25's, we still need two bats.

Two good bats.

The season will open with our 21-year-old savior in the batting order, the guy who went deep off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner. But what if Roman Anthony, with little protection in the line-up, feels the need to try that vs. every pitcher?

He seems mature, but sometimes the pressures of expectations have a way of causing fluctuations in young men...

And just where are these two good bats supposed to play?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

And just where are these two good bats supposed to play?

Second and third in the batting order.

[notin]

37 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

If you are moving Duran in a move to fix the offense, that infielder better be like a top 10 offensive player in baseball, because he needs to not only fix the offense, but fix the offense AND overcome the loss of Duran, who is one of our best , if not our best, offensive player.

I dont see it.  

Most trades involving Duran make us worse offensively.  Most Duran for infielder trades I see are more defensive fixes than offensive fixes.

Duran’s .335 wOBA for Paredes .353 wOBA isnt such the dropoff, is it?

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Second and third in the batting order.

And where on the field?  Unless MLB is going to re-write the rules for us like they did for the Dodgers, these players are required to field somewhere.  At least one of them is…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Second and third in the batting order.

I think the Sox batting order right now might be:

Duran 

Anthony

Contreras

Abreu

Story

Mayer

Hamilton/Romy or Yoshida/(Romy?)

Rafaela

Narvaez

 

Which two hitters are you removing?  
 

The easy answer for one of them is Hamilton/Romy/Yoshida, but they might just be placeholders for Casas. If so, which two hitters?

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Then trade Abreu. We have too many outfielders and not enough infielders.

Generally you dont trade your best offensive players when you seek to fix the offense.

[notin]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Generally you dont trade your best offensive players when you seek to fix the offense.

And the Sox haven’t.  For all the talk of trading Duran, it’s getting to be fairly evident the Sox were not getting a package they wanted.

While discussing trading Bello for offensive fixes makes sense, had there been any actual buzz on that front?

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Duran’s .335 wOBA for Paredes .353 wOBA isnt such the dropoff, is it?

Id like to have both, so we can do:

Anthony
Paredes
Duran
Contreras
Abreu

Add in contributions from ROmy and Story, and we might have something if we stay healthy.

My preference is to trade pitching for Paredes.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Id like to have both, so we can do:

Anthony
Paredes
Duran
Contreras
Abreu

Add in contributions from ROmy and Story, and we might have something if we stay healthy.

My preference is to trade pitching for Paredes.

Ive thrown Bello for Paredes around.  But as far as I can tell, 100% of that buzz comes from just me.  I’m not sure either side is interested.

Now reportedly Houston is moving Paredes to 2b, which likely sticks Altuve in LF, which might mean their lineup is all set (until injuries kick in).

But to my point,  a Duran/Paredes swap isnt just a defensive fixes…

[drewski6]

The way I see it, we have 4 above average hitters vs righties - Anthony, Duran, Contreras, Abreu and 5 offensive holes.

Trading one of those 4 for Paredes leaves us with 4 above average hitters vs righties and 5 offensive holes.

Meanwhile, I personally have a lot of faith in Tolle and Early. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The way I see it, we have 4 above average hitters vs righties - Anthony, Duran, Contreras, Abreu and 5 offensive holes.

Trading one of those 4 for Paredes leaves us with 4 above average hitters vs righties and 5 offensive holes.

Meanwhile, I personally have a lot of faith in Tolle and Early. 

What is your definition of an offensive hole?

It seems to start somewhere between .774 OPS (Duran) and .741 OPS (Story)…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Which two hitters are you removing?  
 

The easy answer for one of them is Hamilton/Romy/Yoshida, but they might just be placeholders for Casas. If so, which two hitters?

Boston certainly needs a good starting second baseman or third baseman from outside the org, and a righty-swinging outfielder/DH for Cora to carry and sometimes platoon or pinch-hit for whichever lefty-swinging outfielder isn't traded.

In the playoff batting order, Refsnyder led off and Romy cleaned up -- those are the two hitters I'm removing, except your proposed '26 order has Duran 1st and Abreu 4th -- which is ironic, because one of them has to go.

Your order isn't bad, and Cora loves the alternating L-R-L-R set-up, but I can't see any way the Red Sox will keep three lefty bats like Duran, Abreu and Yoshida to share DH, a corner outfield spot, and a seat on the bench.

Duran is just too antsy to sit around the dugout as a full-time DH, and Abreu is a two-time Gold Glover that Cora already said needs to bat against both righties and lefties this year...

[moonslav59]

12 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I think he’ll end up as a #4 over when performance and availability are considered. Could move up or down a notch. I think Bello will be better than Gray at the end of the year when overall contribution is considered.

Gray's age is the big wildcard.

Bello lost some velocity, last year, so maybe that's a wildcard, too.

I think both will do fine.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I have overlooked Refsnyder all winter. But you're right --

-- for this year's offense to just equal '25's, we still need two bats.

Two good bats.

The season will open with our 21-year-old savior in the batting order, the guy who went deep off the NL's unanimous Cy Young winner. But what if Roman Anthony, with little protection in the line-up, feels the need to try that vs. every pitcher?

He seems mature, but sometimes the pressures of expectations have a way of causing fluctuations in young men...

I'm fine with thinking Antony and other younger players can take up some of the slack left by departing players, but we should not really count on it.

Lost PAs (OPS)

495 Bregman .821

334 Devers .905

209 Refsnyder .838

That's over 1,000 PAs. 

119 Lowe .790 (Which is maybe what Contreras gives us but with 450 more PAs)

Let's say Contreras takes Lowe's 120 and another 350 from the other 3, that leaves about 650 for one more player.

Of course, I'd like two big bats added, but one could cover what was lost, along with Willson. It's gotta be a big bat, and K Marte is not walking in the door. Paredes comes closest to meeting the need, but he is part speculation. Suarez might be plan B and any other plans don't look like big bats, to me.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think I can safely say that the Sox won't be trading with HOU this offseason if it hasn't happened by now. 

Word is HOU does not want Duran but rather Abreu, and the Sox are asking for more added to the deal.

HOU should give more, as it is 4 years of Abreu for 2 of Paredes.

[notin]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Boston certainly needs a good starting second baseman or third baseman from outside the org, and a righty-swinging outfielder/DH for Cora to carry and sometimes platoon or pinch-hit for whichever lefty-swinging outfielder isn't traded.

In the playoff batting order, Refsnyder led off and Romy cleaned up -- those are the two hitters I'm removing, except your proposed '26 order has Duran 1st and Abreu 4th -- which is ironic, because one of them has to go.

Your order isn't bad, and Cora loves the alternating L-R-L-R set-up, but I can't see any way the Red Sox will keep three lefty bats like Duran, Abreu and Yoshida to share DH, a corner outfield spot, and a seat on the bench.

Duran is just too antsy to sit around the dugout as a full-time DH, and Abreu is a two-time Gold Glover that Cora already said needs to bat against both righties and lefties this year...

The big issue now is the options.  No one apparently wanted to give up Ketel or Paredes for Duran.  The free agent market still has Suarez, who might be pretty likely at this point.  He comes with pros and cons.  Legitimate ones on both sides.

Trade market still has Brendan Donovan.

As I was talking about both Ketel and Paredes before either became real world options, I’m going to throw another one out three that I have only mentioned once before - Lenyn Sosa.  He slugged 22 HRs for the White Sox last year, has plenty of experience at 2b, bats right-handed, and horribly unreliable AI projection have him batting .260/.320/.440 with 20-24 home runs as a member of the Red Sox.  His pull profile is not as extreme as Paredes, but works for Fenway

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lenyn-sosa-672820?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Per Roster Resource, he is behind Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas (another potential Fenway monster but reportedly kind of a douchebag) and Colson Montgomery in the Chicago infield…

 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

What is your definition of an offensive hole?

It seems to start somewhere between .774 OPS (Duran) and .741 OPS (Story)…

Story hasn't been a plus offensive player since 2020. If he's batting in the top 5, it's not ideal. He's not "a hole," but he's not always providing great at bats. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gray's age is the big wildcard.

Bello lost some velocity, last year, so maybe that's a wildcard, too.

I think both will do fine.

Barring injury, it's a rotation that should get you to the playoffs. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Word is HOU does not want Duran but rather Abreu, and the Sox are asking for more added to the deal.

HOU should give more, as it is 4 years of Abreu for 2 of Paredes.

Take Paredes and add some prospect capital rather than 40 man filler. 

[mvp 78]

Abreu

5/8/25 - EOY 693 OPS

For a guy you have to platoon, he runs too hot and cold for me worry about trading.

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

Ive thrown Bello for Paredes around.  But as far as I can tell, 100% of that buzz comes from just me.  I’m not sure either side is interested.

Now reportedly Houston is moving Paredes to 2b, which likely sticks Altuve in LF, which might mean their lineup is all set (until injuries kick in).

But to my point,  a Duran/Paredes swap isnt just a defensive fixes…

HOU felt extremely uneasy with Altuve in LF, last year, but they might reluctantly try it again, this year.

I'd hesitate trading Abreu for Paredes, straight up, but if they add King, I'd probably do it. Maybe Sousa, Abreu or Janek would be enough.

I get the point about trading offense away, and the theory might be one OF'er will replace Yoshida/Romy/ Campbell is not a big step up on offense, so losing one but adding an infielder that can hit is a net gao=in on offense.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Take Paredes and add some prospect capital rather than 40 man filler. 

I'd be fine with Janek- a promising catcher prospect, but we need a LH'd RP'er, so that would be okay.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu

5/8/25 - EOY 693 OPS

For a guy you have to platoon, he runs too hot and cold for me worry about trading.

I agree. It amazes that people don’t want to give up the likes of Duran, or Abreu. Saying he’ll get more AB against LHP doesn’t mean he’ll do well against them. Neither Duran, nor Abreu are going to make, or break the Red Sox season.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Abreu

5/8/25 - EOY 693 OPS

For a guy you have to platoon, he runs too hot and cold for me worry about trading.

I think he was battling an injury for much of 2025, but he's been pretty good at the plate, every year:

.786 '25

.781 '24

.862 '23 (.930 AAA)

.834 '22 AA

.857 '21 A+

Many players have ups and downs. I'm not sure Wilyer is more extreme with that.

 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, notin said:

What is your definition of an offensive hole?

It seems to start somewhere between .774 OPS (Duran) and .741 OPS (Story)…

Over the last3 years , Duran is like 120ish in OPS+ on average.  Story , not sure, but projected right around league average.  Im dinging him for durability.  I dont want him hitting top 5 though.  If he is your #6 hitter and stays healthy hes a good hitter there vs what youd expect from #6

So Im expecting Duran to be around 120 OPS+, Story to be around 100. Wouldnt consider Story a hole just on that, but Im shading him for durability. I dont have a lot of faith in Story being a major offensive contributor end to end , but a lot of that is durabilty.