Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros Engaging in Trade Talks

[mvp 78]

On 1/23/2026 at 6:35 PM, FredLynn said:

Overall pitchers do decline after age 30 as a group. Gray is more likely to decline than Bello who, I believe, still has his best years in front of him.

Bello started last season on the IL. His tempo was slower last year. His fastball velo dropped 2 mph. 

Which pitcher is declining again? 

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello started last season on the IL. His tempo was slower last year. His fastball velo dropped 2 mph. 

Which pitcher is declining again? 

The group of pitchers over 30 statistically have a greater chance of declining. 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The group of pitchers over 30 statistically have a greater chance of declining. 

That’s great but we are really only looking at Gray vs Bello.

And let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves - the Sox still have them both.  
 

This is really only a conversation about who they could/should trade to round out the infield.  They should get a better player for Bello.  And they have more than enough depth to cover for losing him.  Not sure why the Sox would trade Gray or what they would be able to get for him, but very likely less than they could get for Bello…

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s great but we are really only looking at Gray vs Bello.

And let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves - the Sox still have them both.  
 

This is really only a conversation about who they could/should trade to round out the infield.  They should get a better player for Bello.  And they have more than enough depth to cover for losing him.  Not sure why the Sox would trade Gray or what they would be able to get for him, but very likely less than they could get for Bello…

Sox pitchers that were injured last season under 30: 

Kutter

Sandoval

Houck

Bello

Giolito

Dobbins

Fitts

Murphy

Moran

33% chance to get injured

Over 30 guys on the roster:

Matz

De Leon

Fulmer

Stock

Kelly

Wilson

Bernardino

Chapman

Buehler

Hendriks

20% chance to get injured

 

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, notin said:

That’s great but we are really only looking at Gray vs Bello.

And let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves - the Sox still have them both.  
 

This is really only a conversation about who they could/should trade to round out the infield.  They should get a better player for Bello.  And they have more than enough depth to cover for losing him.  Not sure why the Sox would trade Gray or what they would be able to get for him, but very likely less than they could get for Bello…

As I wrote, I was joking about trading Gray. Now that we have a good #2 SP Gray will be an asset. My issue was that there was a chance that Gray was being viewed as our #2 and he is more of a #4. I wouldn't trade either one. Find someone else.

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox pitchers that were injured last season under 30: 

Kutter

Sandoval

Houck

Bello

Giolito

Dobbins

Fitts

Murphy

Moran

33% chance to get injured

Over 30 guys on the roster:

Matz

De Leon

Fulmer

Stock

Kelly

Wilson

Bernardino

Chapman

Buehler

Hendriks

20% chance to get injured

 

No, what you meant to say is that 20% of the pitchers over 30 GOT injured. The CHANCE of getting injured as you get older IS higher. That is a simple fact.

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

No, what you meant to say is that 20% of the pitchers over 30 GOT injured. The CHANCE of getting injured as you get older IS higher. That is a simple fact.

Not in practice though! 

[FredLynn]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Not in practice though! 

Are you claiming that pitchers as a group who are over 30 years old are NOT more likely to get injured?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

No, what you meant to say is that 20% of the pitchers over 30 GOT injured. The CHANCE of getting injured as you get older IS higher. That is a simple fact.

... just taking the stairs

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Are you claiming that pitchers as a group who are over 30 years old are NOT more likely to get injured?

I've made that claim with evidence to back myself up a few times now. All you have is a quote from FanGraphs that said hitters and pitchers decline at 30, not are more likely to get injured.

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I've made that claim with evidence to back myself up a few times now. All you have is a quote from FanGraphs that said hitters and pitchers decline at 30, not are more likely to get injured.

There is no evidence to support your claim. It is a fact that as pitchers age they are more susceptible to injury than younger ones as a group. Individual exceptions obviously exist.

 

“Yes, baseball pitchers over 30 are generally more susceptible to injuries and performance decline compared to their younger counterparts

, largely due to accumulated wear and tear, and a natural performance drop-off that often begins at age 30. While younger pitchers (20-25) are at risk, older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations and face fatigue-related injuries, though they sometimes exhibit better mechanics. “

A simple google search proves my point. It’s also common sense. As we age, pitchers and the general public, are more susceptible to injuries and illness. For example you don’t hear much about falls being a major source of broken bones in 20 year olds but in 80 year old people it’s a big issue.

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

that Gray was being viewed as our #2 and he is more of a #4.

You also thought that Lester was a #5 with the RS.

[FredLynn]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

You also thought that Lester was a #5 with the RS.

There were times he pitched like one. Lester….hmmmm….you mean the pitcher Henry was too cheap to retain and made an insulting offer to do so? That Lester? Glad you brought him up. It further supports my claim that Henry is……penurious.

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations and face fatigue-related injuries,

Not taking a position on this yet, but what you quoted is not the same as being more injury-prone.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, FredLynn said:

There were times he pitched like one.

So, according to your logic, Skenes is like a #6/7 because he occasionally pitches like a #6/7?

[drewski6]

Y'all are being a little harsh.  At least Pumpsie put out his reason why he didnt consider Gray to be the "#2 pitcher" (btw numbering pitchers is for noobs)

But so many other people were like gray is not enough! we need a better pitcher after crochet than what we got! THen we got a guy with less projected war than sonny (by a considerable amount) and its high fives got our #2 woop-woop

ANd Im gonna laugh when Gray starts game #2

Who is the #2  , who is the #4 these arent real questions.  Whenther someone starts tuesday vs wednesday or makes 33 starts vs 32 is just a fan thing.

The reason we got both ,is because if one gets hurt we'll still have the other.

If end of year, we go into playoffs with Crochet, Gray, Ranger - its kind of a misallocation of resources (unless we trade Bello)

Cuz we'll roll with 3.5 starters should we make the playoffs, and Tolle or Early will be one of them.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe. It depends on what KC looks like behind the scenes right now. 

And HOU might have a totally different view than we or other GMs do. They could also want him and his lower AAV and longer control years over Duran.

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

There were times he pitched like one. Lester….hmmmm….you mean the pitcher Henry was too cheap to retain and made an insulting offer to do so? That Lester? Glad you brought him up. It further supports my claim that Henry is……penurious.

Piker!! Say it!!
 

Piker!!

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I've made that claim with evidence to back myself up a few times now. All you have is a quote from FanGraphs that said hitters and pitchers decline at 30, not are more likely to get injured.

While it seems logical pitchers over 30 are more likely to get hurt, the reality is that data can be influenced by the dozens upon dozens of Shane Baz/Grayson Rodriguez types that get injured nearly every year and rarely make it to 30.

Not to mention all the 30+ pitchers whose injury woes started in their 20s…

[notin]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

There is no evidence to support your claim. It is a fact that as pitchers age they are more susceptible to injury than younger ones as a group. Individual exceptions obviously exist.

 

“Yes, baseball pitchers over 30 are generally more susceptible to injuries and performance decline compared to their younger counterparts

, largely due to accumulated wear and tear, and a natural performance drop-off that often begins at age 30. While younger pitchers (20-25) are at risk, older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations and face fatigue-related injuries, though they sometimes exhibit better mechanics. “

A simple google search proves my point. It’s also common sense. As we age, pitchers and the general public, are more susceptible to injuries and illness. For example you don’t hear much about falls being a major source of broken bones in 20 year olds but in 80 year old people it’s a big issue.

 

I am willing to wager Ive broken more bones (mostly from falls) than most if not all of these posters.  And I did ALL OF IT before turning 21…

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Not taking a position on this yet, but what you quoted is not the same as being more injury-prone.

Well…yes it is. 
 

“more susceptible to injuries and performance decline ”

[moonslav59]

I can't see how Gray can be viewed as a #4, even if he pitches like one, every now and then.

I won't bring up the last 2-3 year numbers, because Gray is old and others are not in age decline. Let's just look at 2025 numbers...

The first one is IP. It takes creating the SP sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) an IP minimum of 70 IP, That alone should tell you who the number 4 and 5 SP'ers are. They are the ones with less than 120 IP, unless they are good but missed starts for various reasons. #91 on the list had 126 IP. The #120th had 98. (150 had 72 IP) Gray was 19th in IP, despite his age. That's top 30, and if you rank started 1-2-3-4-5 based on top 30-60-90-120, then Gray loses no points for innings and durability for 2025.

Lets go to ERA: Gray placed 90th at 4.28 (that looks like the best #3 SP'er in MLB.) Not a #4. His ERA- placed him 89th, so about the same: low  #2 to top #3, not a #4. He placed 11th in SIERA. Far from a #4.

Some like FIP a lot. Gray ranked an amazing 23rd, here at 3.39. That #1 territory, but I agree it does not make him a #1 or even a clear #2. Certainly, it's not close to #4.

How about Ks and BB? He ranked 12th in K%-BB%. That's middle #1 territory and far from #4.

The old WHIP: 55th at 1.23 which places hin a low #2.

Can anyone show me one important stat where Gray was below average, other than ERA, which I assume most would say is mid tier #3 SP'er? Even ERA places him as a #3.

Calling him a #4 is greatly exaggerating the skills of the rest of MLB SP'ers.

To me, Gray is likely the best #3 in MLB. Maybe he's second or third best, if the Dodgers, Yankees or some other team have perfect SP'er health.

Suarez looks like a number 1 in most categories and would rank and a top 2-3 #2 by almost every stat.

Crochet is a top 3-5 SP'er in MLB, IMO.

Bello might be a top 4-5 #4 in MLB, and while our #5 might not rank top 15, our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers rank more highly than almost every MLB team, so we should be okay with out #5.

fangraphs projects our two top RP'ers as having the highest project fWAR of any other top 2. Whitlock blows away many teams' #1 RPer.

Our offense needs serious help. Our defense took a big hit at 3B, but looks better at 1B and maybe 2B. Depending on who we add at 3B/2B, maybe the hit won't be so great. Our OF D is second to none.

 

 

[FredLynn]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

I am willing to wager Ive broken more bones (mostly from falls) than most if not all of these posters.  And I did ALL OF IT before turning 21…

I have been consistently clear that I am not referring to individual members of a group but to the group as a whole. No doubt that there are many 80 year olds who have never sustained a broken bone and many 20 year old people who have already broken several bones. But as a group older people have a higher risk of breaking bones. Similarly older pitchers have a higher chance of going on the IL because of the wear and tear they have subjected their bodies to over the years. 

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can't see how Gray can be viewed as a #4, even if he pitches like one, every now and then.

I won't bring up the last 2-3 year numbers, because Gray is old and others are not in age decline. Let's just look at 2025 numbers...

The first one is IP. It takes creating the SP sample size of 150 pitchers (30 teams x 5 SP'ers) an IP minimum of 70 IP, That alone should tell you who the number 4 and 5 SP'ers are. They are the ones with less than 120 IP, unless they are good but missed starts for various reasons. #91 on the list had 126 IP. The #120th had 98. (150 had 72 IP) Gray was 19th in IP, despite his age. That's top 30, and if you rank started 1-2-3-4-5 based on top 30-60-90-120, then Gray loses no points for innings and durability for 2025.

Lets go to ERA: Gray placed 90th at 4.28 (that looks like the best #3 SP'er in MLB.) Not a #4. His ERA- placed him 89th, so about the same: low  #2 to top #3, not a #4. He placed 11th in SIERA. Far from a #4.

Some like FIP a lot. Gray ranked an amazing 23rd, here at 3.39. That #1 territory, but I agree it does not make him a #1 or even a clear #2. Certainly, it's not close to #4.

How about Ks and BB? He ranked 12th in K%-BB%. That's middle #1 territory and far from #4.

The old WHIP: 55th at 1.23 which places hin a low #2.

Can anyone show me one important stat where Gray was below average, other than ERA, which I assume most would say is mid tier #3 SP'er? Even ERA places him as a #3.

Calling him a #4 is greatly exaggerating the skills of the rest of MLB SP'ers.

To me, Gray is likely the best #3 in MLB. Maybe he's second or third best, if the Dodgers, Yankees or some other team have perfect SP'er health.

Suarez looks like a number 1 in most categories and would rank and a top 2-3 #2 by almost every stat.

Crochet is a top 3-5 SP'er in MLB, IMO.

Bello might be a top 4-5 #4 in MLB, and while our #5 might not rank top 15, our 6-7-8-9 SP'ers rank more highly than almost every MLB team, so we should be okay with out #5.

fangraphs projects our two top RP'ers as having the highest project fWAR of any other top 2. Whitlock blows away many teams' #1 RPer.

Our offense needs serious help. Our defense took a big hit at 3B, but looks better at 1B and maybe 2B. Depending on who we add at 3B/2B, maybe the hit won't be so great. Our OF D is second to none.

 

 

Gray had an ERA+ last year of 96-below average. That’s when his decline began I predict. I still think he could potentially perform as our #4 SP though. He will improve the team but he’s clearly not #2 caliber. Fortunately we got our #2 and I’m expecting Bello to be a decent #3. I wouldn’t trade any of our 1-4 SPs. It’s a good rotation if they can remain reasonably healthy.

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Gray had an ERA+ last year of 96-below average. That’s when his decline began I predict. I still think he could potentially perform as our #4 SP though. He will improve the team but he’s clearly not #2 caliber. Fortunately we got our #2 and I’m expecting Bello to be a decent #3. I wouldn’t trade any of our 1-4 SPs. It’s a good rotation if they can remain reasonably healthy.

Okay, but you called him a #4, right? Potential to be one is a different statement.

It depends on how you decide to group SP'ers as #1-2-3-4-5 and certainly using ERA has merit.

One way to look at rankings is to compare Suarez, Gray and Bello to every team's projected 2-3-4 SP'ers. You may find Gray looks better than half the #2's and almost all #3s.

One day I will do this, and I'm guessing Suarez looks better than 15-20 team's #1 and maybe better than all but 1-2 team's #2. He's a top #2, if not a bottom #1.

I'm thinking Gray will look as good as or close to half the #2's and almost all #3's. even if you use ERA. (Of course using only ERA neglects IP and other meaningful stats.)

IMO, Bello could easily be MLB's best or top 2-3 4th starter.

When we got Gray, I had hoped for a "better #2," but I felt he was pretty close to being one, as long as his age did not finally catch up to him. His fWAR was top 20, last year, and that was largely fueled by IP and FIP, as fangraphs favors FIP. His 1.4 bWAR is not all that great and probably is not top 60, but it is probably in the #2 to #3 range.

Anyway we look at it, getting Suarez and pushing Gray and Bello back a notch greatly improved our rotation. It also left just the 5 slot open, instead of 4-5. Our depth was improved by Ranger, as well.

Now, we need a big bat and a 2B/3Bman. I know we agree on that!

🤩

 

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, but you called him a #4, right? Potential to be one is a different statement.

It depends on how you decide to group SP'ers as #1-2-3-4-5 and certainly using ERA has merit.

One way to look at rankings is to compare Suarez, Gray and Bello to every team's projected 2-3-4 SP'ers. You may find Gray looks better than half the #2's and almost all #3s.

One day I will do this, and I'm guessing Suarez looks better than 15-20 team's #1 and maybe better than all but 1-2 team's #2. He's a top #2, if not a bottom #1.

I'm thinking Gray will look as good as or close to half the #2's and almost all #3's. even if you use ERA. (Of course using only ERA neglects IP and other meaningful stats.)

IMO, Bello could easily be MLB's best or top 2-3 4th starter.

When we got Gray, I had hoped for a "better #2," but I felt he was pretty close to being one, as long as his age did not finally catch up to him. His fWAR was top 20, last year, and that was largely fueled by IP and FIP, as fangraphs favors FIP. His 1.4 bWAR is not all that great and probably is not top 60, but it is probably in the #2 to #3 range.

Anyway we look at it, getting Suarez and pushing Gray and Bello back a notch greatly improved our rotation. It also left just the 5 slot open, instead of 4-5. Our depth was improved by Ranger, as well.

Now, we need a big bat and a 2B/3Bman. I know we agree on that!

🤩

 

We do agree on the need for a very good IF offensively. I think that wherever you assign Gray our rotation is one of the best in the game. It’s also deep. I think we are set there and I wouldn’t mess with it. We have a glut in the OF and need to package either Duran or Abreu with some minor league players and some picks for a very good offensive player. Then we are in a position to compete for a ring. So far they haven’t even replaced Devers and Bregman adequately.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Well…yes it is. 
 

“more susceptible to injuries and performance decline ”

No, not if you add stipulations older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations to one side an older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations 

It is akin to me making a claim that I am healthier than you because you sprain your ankle more often.  But the only reason for that is that you run and I don't.

[FredLynn]

6 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No, not if you add stipulations older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations to one side an older pitchers frequently violate pitch count recommendations 

It is akin to me making a claim that I am healthier than you because you sprain your ankle more often.  But the only reason for that is that you run and I don't.

Whatever the reason is the fact remains that older pitchers are more likely to get injured. That’s the bottom line.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

We do agree on the need for a very good IF offensively. I think that wherever you assign Gray our rotation is one of the best in the game. It’s also deep. I think we are set there and I wouldn’t mess with it. We have a glut in the OF and need to package either Duran or Abreu with some minor league players and some picks for a very good offensive player. Then we are in a position to compete for a ring. So far they haven’t even replaced Devers and Bregman adequately.

100%.

Maybe Contreras replaced half of Devers. But, we still have Breggie and Ref's bats to repalce.

[FredLynn]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, but you called him a #4, right? Potential to be one is a different statement.

It depends on how you decide to group SP'ers as #1-2-3-4-5 and certainly using ERA has merit.

One way to look at rankings is to compare Suarez, Gray and Bello to every team's projected 2-3-4 SP'ers. You may find Gray looks better than half the #2's and almost all #3s.

One day I will do this, and I'm guessing Suarez looks better than 15-20 team's #1 and maybe better than all but 1-2 team's #2. He's a top #2, if not a bottom #1.

I'm thinking Gray will look as good as or close to half the #2's and almost all #3's. even if you use ERA. (Of course using only ERA neglects IP and other meaningful stats.)

IMO, Bello could easily be MLB's best or top 2-3 4th starter.

When we got Gray, I had hoped for a "better #2," but I felt he was pretty close to being one, as long as his age did not finally catch up to him. His fWAR was top 20, last year, and that was largely fueled by IP and FIP, as fangraphs favors FIP. His 1.4 bWAR is not all that great and probably is not top 60, but it is probably in the #2 to #3 range.

Anyway we look at it, getting Suarez and pushing Gray and Bello back a notch greatly improved our rotation. It also left just the 5 slot open, instead of 4-5. Our depth was improved by Ranger, as well.

Now, we need a big bat and a 2B/3Bman. I know we agree on that!

🤩

 

I think he’ll end up as a #4 over when performance and availability are considered. Could move up or down a notch. I think Bello will be better than Gray at the end of the year when overall contribution is considered.