Bregman signs with the Cubs

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

IMO, JH thought of Bloom as the rebuild guy.  He was never going to tank, but was never going to go all-in.  Too early to tell with Breslow.  I think we will go past threshold #1, and JH will make a business decision at the TDL.  He's done that before.

Henry wanted Bloom to make more deadline moves, but Bloom was unable to. I think Henry wanted Bloom to be a longer term guy like Theo ("he wrote The Rays Way"). 

They'll definitely be over the first threshold. However, since they are over they should go up to the 3rd threshold. It's just money. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I once tied an all-time record in baseball history for making three put-outs in one inning at first base.

And did so as a batter…

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He shouldn't have been. I wanted Campbell to be the 2b, but I wanted Campbell to earn the spot first and foremost. He wasn't ready. He had a bad spring. His defense was also horrible. Apparently, internal models still grade his 2b defense highly but they still moved him to LF???

The only reason he got the spot was because he signed the extension. That's not how you should build the roster. 

His D was horrible, and they kept moving him around the field, which didn’t help him either especially since he was penciled in at 2B, and still today after moving around even more at Woo still doesn’t have a position.

[notin]

So I got bored and ran some AI models for who would hit more home runs in 162 games on the Red Sox - Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette or Isaac Paredes using Baseball Savant data.

Paredes was the runaway winner with 30-33 home runs and, as the model said “Fenway’s Green Monster is almost purpose-built for his swing”  (I did not add the italics.)

Bregman was second with 24-27 home runs.  His 18 home runs in 114 games does support this, as it extrapolates to 25.5 home runs over 162 games.

Bichette’s line drive tendencies and opposite field power left him in the 18-21 home run range.

 

Granted, this is just home runs and not all aspects of hitting.  But is it time to really hope the Sox move on Paredes?  Or is this AI gobbledegook?

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

His D was horrible, and they kept moving him around the field, which didn’t help him either especially since he was penciled in at 2B, and still today after moving around even more at Woo still doesn’t have a position.

I was really high on him last offseason, but he just wasn't ready. He needs to go to AAA, play ONE position and earn his way back. I think he can do that, but it won't be before the ASB. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

So I got bored and ran some AI models for who would hit more home runs in 162 games on the Red Sox - Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette or Isaac Paredes using Baseball Savant data.

Paredes was the runaway winner with 30-33 home runs and, as the model said “Fenway’s Green Monster is almost purpose-built for his swing”  (I did not add the italics.)

Bregman was second with 24-27 home runs.  His 18 home runs in 114 games does support this, as it extrapolates to 25.5 home runs over 162 games.

Bichette’s line drive tendencies and opposite field power left him in the 18-21 home run range.

 

Granted, this is just home runs and not all aspects of hitting.  But is it time to really hope the Sox move on Paredes?  Or is this AI gobbledegook?

I just put this post on the blockchain. If anyone wants to buy NFT's of notin's old posts, let me know. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I just put this post on the blockchain. If anyone wants to buy NFT's of notin's old posts, let me know. 

What do my old post trade at these days?

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

What do my old post trade at these days?

Maybe think in terms of royalties paid for each time a song is streamed on Spotify.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe think in terms of royalties paid for each time a song is streamed on Spotify.

I don’t think any of my posts can generate that type of revenue…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I was really high on him last offseason, but he just wasn't ready. He needs to go to AAA, play ONE position and earn his way back. I think he can do that, but it won't be before the ASB. 

I agree 100%.  I definitely would not trade him, but I'd definitely put him in AAA for a full year, unless we had an injury and he was crushing the ball.  He could still be a great player, but we have to make the investment.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Maybe think in terms of royalties paid for each time a song is streamed on Spotify.

How much is that?

[Kimmi]

On 1/11/2026 at 9:34 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

It does look like an overpay, but the market for premium free agents is so limited.  We can't just turn our attention to the next Bregman because there is none.  There's Bichette but he'll be even more expensive.

I get the sentiment that the Sox have to do something, even if it's an overpay.  I also get the angst at missing out on yet another player because the Sox were not willing to up their bid.  I'm not saying that I would have outbid the Cubs, but I do understand how fans are feeling, especially in the wake of the Devers trade. 

I feel like the Sox have to make at least one more fairly significant upgrade.  Surprise us Breslow.

[Kimmi]

On 1/11/2026 at 1:49 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

Fans are jerks LOL.  If Crochet or Anthony get hurt this year we'll be bitching about them too.  It's pretty hard to find a beloved player who isn't playing or performing up to their contract.

We sure turned on Kristian Campbell pretty quickly.  For the first month of the season, we couldn't give him enough accolades.  Now, it seems that many have all but given up on him.  Let us be reminded that he has all of 263 PAs at the big league level. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

How much is that?

Between $0.003 and $0.005 per stream.

[JoeBrady]

34 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

We sure turned on Kristian Campbell pretty quickly.  For the first month of the season, we couldn't give him enough accolades.  Now, it seems that many have all but given up on him.  Let us be reminded that he has all of 263 PAs at the big league level. 

I've been fantasy BB for a long time.  Having rookie pitchers come up and dominate is fairly common.

But every year, without fail, there is a rush for a few elite hitting prospect.  Their success rate, in terms of  immediate fantasy value, is usually -0-.  Guys that I thought had flawless minor league resumes, like Holiday and Rutschman, always take time to develop.  Even guys that are great just one year later, usually struggle as rookies.  I think James Wood has one of the best swings I've ever seen, and he didn't hit anything in the second half.  And every team has a guy like that.

[Randy Red Sox]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Devers said he was not moving to 1b.  He said something along the lines of “do they want me to play every position?”  

If Cora didnt ask him, it’s far more likely that he knew Devers would be difficult about it. Cora wanted Bregman at 2b and not 3b.  Was that because he didn’t  think Devers would be a good DH? Or reigning Gold Glover Bregman couldn’t handle 3b?

Or because he knew Devers would be difficult to ask to move? 

All signs point to Devers...

 

 

it is pretty obvious that you will agree with ANY move the FO makes and that includes bringing an average to just above avg 2B or 3B with Mayer handling the other spot. You will praise the move no matter what.

[Randy Red Sox]

59 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

We sure turned on Kristian Campbell pretty quickly.  For the first month of the season, we couldn't give him enough accolades.  Now, it seems that many have all but given up on him.  Let us be reminded that he has all of 263 PAs at the big league level. 

the FO certainly hasn't given up on him. He could well be the 2B this season with Mayer at 3B. JH would just love that.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

So I got bored and ran some AI models for who would hit more home runs in 162 games on the Red Sox - Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette or Isaac Paredes using Baseball Savant data.

Paredes was the runaway winner with 30-33 home runs and, as the model said “Fenway’s Green Monster is almost purpose-built for his swing”  (I did not add the italics.)

Bregman was second with 24-27 home runs.  His 18 home runs in 114 games does support this, as it extrapolates to 25.5 home runs over 162 games.

Bichette’s line drive tendencies and opposite field power left him in the 18-21 home run range.

Granted, this is just home runs and not all aspects of hitting.  But is it time to really hope the Sox move on Paredes?  Or is this AI gobbledegook?

To me, Paredes is the guy to go after, since KMarte is too expensive.

He's got 2 years of control.

BTV accepts Campbell for Paredes and Sousa, but I'd probably do one for one, or add Mullins for the two. (Maybe upgrade from Sousa to King?)

[MADSTORK]

Good riddance…

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it is pretty obvious that you will agree with ANY move the FO makes and that includes bringing an average to just above avg 2B or 3B with Mayer handling the other spot. You will praise the move no matter what.

Got the wrong guy.  Do not confuse Notins acceptance with his approval.

[drewski6]

Paredes would be a great get.

If they get Arrenado, they should also get a DH with the cost savings from Bregman to Arrenado.  If they get Arrenado for cheaper than Bregman was, they should be more willing to consider Yoshida's salary sunk.

Geno starts making sense to me.  Or maybe his ability to play third and remain healthy is higher than I credit, and hes a plug at 3b.  I kind of see him as a DH, and not because I think defense is as or more important as hitting, but because Im concerned how a mid 30's body that isnt particularly slim holds up at 3b. Geno got a belly.

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

the FO certainly hasn't given up on him. He could well be the 2B this season with Mayer at 3B. JH would just love that.

I hope that we add either a 2B or a 3B, but if it came down to it, I'd actually be okay with Campbell at 2B and Mayer at 3B.  I know that I am in a very small minority with that opinion.  My only problem with that is the lack of depth we have at those positions, similar to what we faced last year when Casas went down.

At any rate, I'm guessing that if they don't add a 2B or 3B, they'd go with Romy at 2B over Campbell.

[a700hitter]

On 1/12/2026 at 4:10 PM, Kimmi said:

We sure turned on Kristian Campbell pretty quickly.  For the first month of the season, we couldn't give him enough accolades.  Now, it seems that many have all but given up on him.  Let us be reminded that he has all of 263 PAs at the big league level. 

I don't remember anyone turning on him.  They got him out of town pretty quickly and he never returned.

[Behindenemylines]

On 1/10/2026 at 11:34 PM, urban cowboy said:

Phew, that is a horrific over-pay that the cubs will soon regret.

Agree! He broke down last summer. I don't see this contract aging well!

[Kimmi]

On 1/22/2026 at 1:14 PM, a700hitter said:

I don't remember anyone turning on him.  They got him out of town pretty quickly and he never returned.

They turned on him in the sense that people would now be quick to trade him, when at the start of last season, he was deemed our 2nd baseman for the foreseeable future.

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

They turned on him in the sense that people would now be quick to trade him, when at the start of last season, he was deemed our 2nd baseman for the foreseeable future.

I don’t know if anyone deemed him the 2nd baseman of the future. The Red SOX had used 11 different 2B the year before, and he didn’t, and still don’t really have a position, so they gave him a shot there. He’s not a good defensive 2B anyway, and after he stopped hitting after a good start he was sent down to Woo where he didn’t hit for a while there either, and never came back. He’s still doesn’t have a position, so who knows where he ends up on, and off the field.

[moonslav59]

On 1/22/2026 at 2:19 PM, Behindenemylines said:

Agree! He broke down last summer. I don't see this contract aging well!

He played very well for a half season, got a year older and showed signs of injury issues. This was after showing decline from his peak 2 seasons at ages 24 and 25 (152 and 162 OPS+) He rebounded a bit in 2022 to 134 but that was still a far cry from those monster years. Then he dropped to 122 in 2023 and 116 in 2024. His defense remained excellent, but a 116 OPS+ is not even close to $170M value. He ended up at 128, last year, and that is why he got $170M, but why is a half season in 2025 carry more weight than 2023 and 2024 combined, and now he's almost 32 years old?

To me, he wasn't worth what we offered him, so I'm not upset he turned us down. That's the bottom line, to me. If (emphasis on if) Brez made some mistakes in the talks, I'm glad he did, and I hope he learns from it, so when we really should get our top target, he doesn't muff it up.

[moonslav59]

On 1/13/2026 at 3:04 PM, Kimmi said:

At any rate, I'm guessing that if they don't add a 2B or 3B, they'd go with Romy at 2B over Campbell.

I see it that way, too, and Romy had decent splits in 2025, Not great but better than Duran and Abreu vs off-handed pitchers. The issue is he will face more off handed pitchers being a RHB than Duran & Abreu.

Can he hit .710 again vs righties? If not, we may see -- eeeek!!!- DHam again!

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t know if anyone deemed him the 2nd baseman of the future. The Red SOX had used 11 different 2B the year before, and he didn’t, and still don’t really have a position, so they gave him a shot there. He’s not a good defensive 2B anyway, and after he stopped hitting after a good start he was sent down to Woo where he didn’t hit for a while there either, and never came back. He’s still doesn’t have a position, so who knows where he ends up on, and off the field.

I still get the sense that people turned on him, but fair enough.  It would be nice if we could get a long-standing 2nd baseman.  I thought that Vaughn Grissom was going to be it (not that I liked the Sale trade), but that didn't turn out well at all.

[Kimmi]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I see it that way, too, and Romy had decent splits in 2025, Not great but better than Duran and Abreu vs off-handed pitchers. The issue is he will face more off handed pitchers being a RHB than Duran & Abreu.

Can he hit .710 again vs righties? If not, we may see -- eeeek!!!- DHam again!

I am still thinking that the Red Sox will add either a 2nd baseman or a 3rd baseman to take care of the infield situation.  As I've said many times, we need some better infield depth, if nothing else.  And, if nothing else, the Sox should at least acquire a LH 2B to platoon with Romy.