Red Sox Have "Aggressive" Offer On Table For Alex Bregman

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It's funny that you mention Mexico, for two reasons.  The first is that I thought everyone in Texas was from Mexico:).  The second is I was going to mention the same thing.  When I went to HS, a long time ago, every Latino was Puerto Rican. 

During our reunion, I was talking to one of them.  For some reason, he told me he grew up in the housing on 136th.  I said '136th & Alexander?"  He says yeah.  I told him that the city tore down my house to build that housing complex, and that he stole my land.  I was kidding, but I thought it was fascinating that we both started off on the same plot of land.  FWIW, The Bronx is the ultimate 6 degrees of separation.

The school I taught at with 50% black and 50% Hispanic, the vast majority of Hispanics were from El Salvador, and many had little to know schooling history. Needless to say, it was a difficult job, although the parents were very supportive.

We have a lot of students from Venezuela, Columbia, Guatemala and even Cuba. There are other schools that have higher Mexican and Honduras populations as many populations live in enclaves.

For a while, we had over a dozen students from one specific area of Turkey. Two of the students were from the same neighborhood and school, but their parents did not know each other. Both chose the same place to live, independently.

We've seen our immigrant population drop in the last year or so, and it looks like some major cuts are coming to the ESL program, due to FED funding cuts and less legal and illegal immigration. I'm not sure my job is safe, and since I'm close to retiring, I'm not really wanting to start all over at a different school.

Such is life. Adaption never ends, no matter how old you get.

[moonslav59]

Back to Bregman: his much better season in 2025 seems to help his case for a larger or longer deal, but he is a year older and did play just 118 games, so I wonder what GMs think he's a better option, now than he was last winter. Of course, needs change. Budgets change. Inflation and the upcoming new CBA loom.

I'm not sure anyone is offering the reported DET deal from last winter ($172/6) or the Sox $120M/3 deal with opt-outs and deferrals that brought the AAV down to $32M a year. My guess is something in between might be the winning deal. Maybe $29M-30M x 5? Maybe $33-34M x 4- perhaps with an optout after 2 or 3 years, not one? Maybe the same $40M x 3 deal?

Certainly, the Sox are a way better team with Bregman than without him, and by himself, he does not make us a better team than 2025's team, but maybe Contreras, Gray, Oviedo and returning injured players make up for the losses of several key players like Devers, Refsnyder, Lowe, Gio, Wilson, Bernardino and a few other role players. A few losses, like Buehler, D May and no 2025 Houck starts can give us more room to improve upon.

Regardless, it is highly likely our season will come down to good health and progressions from our many younger players.s

[moonslav59]

Apparently, we are about $24M from the second tax line. My guess is any contract given to Breggie would include so much deferred money that it would come down to $23M or so.

Another way to make it happen would be to trade some salary away for a lesser salary return.

Duran is mentioned a lot, and he is due $7.75M. 

Lodolo is estimated at $4.55M. (-$3.2M)

Gore ~$5M (-$2.75M)

Ryan ~$6.1M (-$1.65M)

We could add $2.7M by including Crawford. We could try to dump a small fraction of Hicks or Masa's contracts. Sandoval is at $8.5M AAV. More doubtful would be trading Rafaela (adjusted to $7.5M) or Campbell (adjusted to $8.5M.)

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure my job is safe, and since I'm close to retiring,

Hopefully there is a nice retirement package available.  I know two people that just got laid off.  One was at retirement age, and was just wondering when.  The other was 5-6 away from retirement anyway, so they basically just paid him to stay home.  I didn't really care, but I was hoping that, when I walked into my boss's office with my retirement letter, he'd tell me, 'Sorry Joe, but you gotta go.  And here is your 10-month severance'.

And there's Joey, stuffing his retirement letter into the shredder.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Hopefully there is a nice retirement package available.  I know two people that just got laid off.  One was at retirement age, and was just wondering when.  The other was 5-6 away from retirement anyway, so they basically just paid him to stay home.  I didn't really care, but I was hoping that, when I walked into my boss's office with my retirement letter, he'd tell me, 'Sorry Joe, but you gotta go.  And here is your 10-month severance'.

And there's Joey, stuffing his retirement letter into the shredder.

Texas teacher retirement has not been upgraded since 2002. There is no cost of living adjustments, One reason it is so cheap to live here is the low gov't spending, no income tax,  &  pretty low property taxes. The 8.5% sales tax hurts and is a regressive tax, but the Cost of Living is very low here.

I'm a bigtime saver and miser, so we have a hefty IRA and investment portfolio. We could retire, now, but there is so much unknown about the economy, inflation and medical coverage, that we want to wait 1-2 more school years.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Back to Bregman: his much better season in 2025 seems to help his case for a larger or longer deal, but he is a year older and did play just 118 games, so I wonder what GMs think he's a better option, now than he was last winter. Of course, needs change. Budgets change. Inflation and the upcoming new CBA loom.

I'm not sure anyone is offering the reported DET deal from last winter ($172/6) or the Sox $120M/3 deal with opt-outs and deferrals that brought the AAV down to $32M a year. My guess is something in between might be the winning deal. Maybe $29M-30M x 5? Maybe $33-34M x 4- perhaps with an optout after 2 or 3 years, not one? Maybe the same $40M x 3 deal?

Certainly, the Sox are a way better team with Bregman than without him, and by himself, he does not make us a better team than 2025's team, but maybe Contreras, Gray, Oviedo and returning injured players make up for the losses of several key players like Devers, Refsnyder, Lowe, Gio, Wilson, Bernardino and a few other role players. A few losses, like Buehler, D May and no 2025 Houck starts can give us more room to improve upon.

Regardless, it is highly likely our season will come down to good health and progressions from our many younger players.s

Just a couple of thoughts.

• I think last year hurts Bregman a little.  His bat looked good, but the injury will remind GMs that he will be 32 this year.
• We'll be a better team with Bregman, but it is worth mentioning that we will be better with any $25M player.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm a bigtime saver and miser, so we have a hefty IRA and investment portfolio.

This is why I always recommend saving while young, if you can.  The investments, even in a mundane market, can grow real quickly.  And if you are laid off in your mid-50s, there is a pretty good chance you aren't getting your previous salary anymore.  And once you've banked enough, you can work without a care in the world.

[moonslav59]

51 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Just a couple of thoughts.

• I think last year hurts Bregman a little.  His bat looked good, but the injury will remind GMs that he will be 32 this year.
• We'll be a better team with Bregman, but it is worth mentioning that we will be better with any $25M player.

Yes. I do not think he's worth more than last winter, except for maybe a 5% inflation add.

I'm not sure what other $25M players we might sign, and all look to get 4,5 or more years.

Suarez will get less years and maybe $21-23M AAV. Some players make around that via trade. Bassitt will take a 1-2 year deal, but is he what we need? Maybe getting him allows us to safely trade Crawford, Sandoval or Harrison with an OF'er to get a major Inf bat, but I'm not so sure.

I'd rather have Bregman than Valdez. I doubt Ranger Suarez fits the Brez profile. I think I'd rather have Bregman at 4-5 years than Bichette at 6-7 years. 

Who else is there? Please don't say Gallen or Gio.

 

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I do not think he's worth more than last winter, except for maybe a 5% inflation add.

I'm not sure what other $25M players we might sign, and all look to get 4,5 or more years.

Suarez will get less years and maybe $21-23M AAV. Some players make around that via trade. Bassitt will take a 1-2 year deal, but is he what we need? Maybe getting him allows us to safely trade Crawford, Sandoval or Harrison with an OF'er to get a major Inf bat, but I'm not so sure.

I'd rather have Bregman than Valdez. I doubt Ranger Suarez fits the Brez profile. I think I'd rather have Bregman at 4-5 years than Bichette at 6-7 years. 

Who else is there? Please don't say Gallen or Gio.

 

What exactly is wrong with Gallen and Giolito? Biggest drawback is Gallen (I believe) has a QO attached.

I wouldn’t go long term with either, but MLBTR predicted 2 yes $32mill for Giolito.  Why wouldn’t Boston do that?

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, notin said:

What exactly is wrong with Gallen and Giolito? Biggest drawback is Gallen (I believe) has a QO attached.

I wouldn’t go long term with either, but MLBTR predicted 2 yes $32mill for Giolito.  Why wouldn’t Boston do that?

The QO on Gallen is just one thing. He turns 31 and does not seem to be aging well. He has 3 straight ERA+ decline seasons: 158>126>115>89. His K rate dropped from 9.8 career up to 2025 to 8.2. He will probably get a 3+ year deal, unless he tries to reset.

Gio would be okay on a 2 year deal, but he seemed hurt at the end of 2025. I'd pass.

I'm thinking we need a big splash deal not a ripple in still water, when there is no pebble thrown- no wind to blow...

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Apparently, we are about $24M from the second tax line. My guess is any contract given to Breggie would include so much deferred money that it would come down to $23M or so.

Another way to make it happen would be to trade some salary away for a lesser salary return.

Duran is mentioned a lot, and he is due $7.75M. 

Lodolo is estimated at $4.55M. (-$3.2M)

Gore ~$5M (-$2.75M)

Ryan ~$6.1M (-$1.65M)

We could add $2.7M by including Crawford. We could try to dump a small fraction of Hicks or Masa's contracts. Sandoval is at $8.5M AAV. More doubtful would be trading Rafaela (adjusted to $7.5M) or Campbell (adjusted to $8.5M.)

I think Breggie's AAV will be higher than 23M, but they will trade someone else off the roster to get the number below the 2nd threshold. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, notin said:

What exactly is wrong with Gallen and Giolito? Biggest drawback is Gallen (I believe) has a QO attached.

I wouldn’t go long term with either, but MLBTR predicted 2 yes $32mill for Giolito.  Why wouldn’t Boston do that?

Gio is worth the contract, but is he an upgrade over Early over the next two seasons? 

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Breggie's AAV will be higher than 23M, but they will trade someone else off the roster to get the number below the 2nd threshold. 

Agreed, although I think Breggie might allow just enough money to be deferred so we stay under a tax line.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Breggie's AAV will be higher than 23M, but they will trade someone else off the roster to get the number below the 2nd threshold. 

The AAV's are easy enough to manipulate.  Add one more useless year at $5M and your $125M/5 CBT hit becomes a $130M/6 CBT hit.

And I've mentioned this before, but I'd bet that Bregman has HOF aspirations.  He might like the idea of hanging around in Fenway 1-2 years past his expected retirement age.  A 60 bWAR and 300 HRs are within reach.  That might not do it, but it definitely would be enough to get him 10 years on the ballot.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The AAV's are easy enough to manipulate.  Add one more useless year at $5M and your $125M/5 CBT hit becomes a $130M/6 CBT hit.

And I've mentioned this before, but I'd bet that Bregman has HOF aspirations.  He might like the idea of hanging around in Fenway 1-2 years past his expected retirement age.  A 60 bWAR and 300 HRs are within reach.  That might not do it, but it definitely would be enough to get him 10 years on the ballot.

It's likely we do a little of both, if we sign Bregman.

1. Lots of deferred money.

2. Trading away some salary- most likely Duran's $7.75M contract.

 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The AAV's are easy enough to manipulate.  Add one more useless year at $5M and your $125M/5 CBT hit becomes a $130M/6 CBT hit.

And I've mentioned this before, but I'd bet that Bregman has HOF aspirations.  He might like the idea of hanging around in Fenway 1-2 years past his expected retirement age.  A 60 bWAR and 300 HRs are within reach.  That might not do it, but it definitely would be enough to get him 10 years on the ballot.

You think he is already assuming that he's retiring at 36? He only has 1,250 hits. I don't think he's currently on a HOF track TBH. To get to 60 bWAR, he'd have to be a 3.4 guy for 5 straight years. He's going to tail off at some point. 300 HR's may be doable, but that's not going to get him into the HOF. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's likely we do a little of both, if we sign Bregman.

1. Lots of deferred money.

2. Trading away some salary- most likely Duran's $7.75M contract.

 

Why trade Duran when you could just trade half of Hicks's salary for a low level prospect? 

[Old Red]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's likely we do a little of both, if we sign Bregman.

1. Lots of deferred money.

2. Trading away some salary- most likely Duran's $7.75M contract.

 

How about packaging Masa, Hicks, and Sandoval that’s always a suggested proposition?🤓

[Duran Is The Man]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why trade Duran when you could just trade half of Hicks's salary for a low level prospect? 

he freakin' hates Duran.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he freakin' hates Duran.

The problem with simply trading Duran is that it makes the offense worse. You don't do it just for CBT relief. If that's the reason, it's pretty embarrassing. It should be way easier to find 8-10M in savings. 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem with simply trading Duran is that it makes the offense worse. You don't do it just for CBT relief. If that's the reason, it's pretty embarrassing. It should be way easier to find 8-10M in savings. 

I thought the original idea for trading Duran last trade deadline, and this year was for starting pitching, or for Martel, which I could see, but I don’t think trading him for CBT relief is even being discussed by the Red Sox unlike on here.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I thought the original idea for trading Duran last trade deadline, and this year was for starting pitching, or for Martel, which I could see, but I don’t think trading him for CBT relief is even being discussed by the Red Sox unlike on here.

I have heard it elsewhere as well (i.e. trade for prospects), but I'm not sure if the FO is discussing it. 

[Old Red]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I have heard it elsewhere as well (i.e. trade for prospects), but I'm not sure if the FO is discussing it. 

I think on here too it’s the speculation that the Red Sox have to trade an OF, because of the roster construction thing.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think on here too it’s the speculation that the Red Sox have to trade an OF, because of the roster construction thing.

Just look at how last season ended - Anthony on the IL and Abreu just coming off it.  We would have been in rough shape without Duran.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think on here too it’s the speculation that the Red Sox have to trade an OF, because of the roster construction thing.

Since they aren't signing a Japanese player this year, just dump Masa for pennies on the dollar. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just look at how last season ended - Anthony on the IL and Abreu just coming off it.  We would have been in rough shape without Duran.

I get all that, but what do you do with 4 outfielders with 3 of them LHB. Supposedly Abreu is going to get more AB against LHP, so we’ll see how that goes. I know rotating through DH as an option, but Masa is still around, and possibly Casas at some point.

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Since they aren't signing a Japanese player this year, just dump Masa for pennies on the dollar. 

I know Masa gets dumped on a lot, and he’s overpaid, and only useful as a DH, but he can hit some.

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I know Masa gets dumped on a lot, and he’s overpaid, and only useful as a DH, but he can hit some.

Masa 2025

266 AVG - 8th on BOS (excluding Garcia/Sabol)

307 OBP - 13th

388 SLG - 13th 

696 OPS - 13th

302 wOBA - 13th

88 wRC+ - 13th

6.5% Barrels - 13th

44% HardHit - 13th

11.7% K - 1st

4.8% BB - 18th 

54.8% GB - 1st

22.6% FB - 19th

26.4 Sprint Speed - 15th

Even at his '23-'24 numbers, it's a stretch to keep him at DH. He was not worth it in '25. A slow LHB with no pop that leads the team in ground balls. There's just no real value there IMO. 

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

2. Trading away some salary- most likely Duran's $7.75M contract.

I would treat that as a completely separate issue.  Trade him for value/need, not because of salary.  I'd blow thru the payroll caps unless I had a good deal.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You think he is already assuming that he's retiring at 36? He only has 1,250 hits. I don't think he's currently on a HOF track TBH. To get to 60 bWAR, he'd have to be a 3.4 guy for 5 straight years. He's going to tail off at some point. 300 HR's may be doable, but that's not going to get him into the HOF. 

A 6-year deal would take him thru age 37.  He might become the happy wanderer after that, but I think a 6th year, at Fenway, playing for a contender, would definitely hold some non-monetary value for him.  16.9/6=2.82.  He should land 2,000 hits.

Again, it'll be more than enough to get on the ballot for ten years.