Sox to acquire Sonny Gray

[FredLynn]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

I know!! It’s almost (but not quite). THANKSGIVING and this team still looks like the pathetic 89 win team from 7 weeks ago!

But with Sonny Gray…

Exactly! What are they waiting for?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Luxury tax hit for us is $20 million I believe....

I thought Lux tax counted the buyout with 2nd year only.

So, $31M for 2026 + $10M buyout= $41M/2

Minus $20M paid by STL

$21M/2 or $10.5M on tax line for 2026 and 2027. (If we don't buy him out, his 2027 number goes up.)

[a700hitter]

At the very least, he should contribute 150 + innings saving the bullpen from burning out in mid June.  I am not going to give the prospects or the $ a second thought as the team has plenty of both.

[Jasonbay44]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Maybe a #4-5 SP at this stage of his career. We already have those types. So he’s depth at the lower end of the rotation. Not expecting much from him.

And the needs for a solid #2 and a RH power hitter remain unmet. Henry isn’t going to open his purse to pay for what the team needs, which is disgusting because if he did we could become a very good team.

If a teams #4 or 5 is Sonny gray, they have an elite rotation. He’s better than that 

[Nick]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought Lux tax counted the buyout with 2nd year only.

So, $31M for 2026 + $10M buyout= $41M/2

Minus $20M paid by STL

$21M/2 or $10.5M on tax line for 2026 and 2027. (If we don't buy him out, his 2027 number goes up.)

I don't believe you're correct. Options not exercised will be added to current year, thus it will be $41M less $20M = $21M in  2026 and not $10.5M for two years (2026/2027).

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

I'm not necessarily opposed to the trade, just that Fitts is 10 years younger and far cheaper.

What is bres-slow’s game plan here?  Why trade for a 1 and done pitcher? 
His last 3 trades have cost us a lot of prospects for 3 one and done pitchers??? 

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

What is bres-slow’s game plan here?  Why trade for a 1 and done pitcher? 
His last 3 trades have cost us a lot of prospects for 3 one and done pitchers??? 

Because they have shown that they would rather commit high AAV on short term contracts than commit to years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Though Sonny Gray was the Cards' ace, he may not be the #2 that thirsty Sox fans are craving.

It's still worth noting he led the NL this year in strike outs to walks: 5.289, beating out Cy Skenes' 5.143.

If rumors are true that Breslow's not done recruiting his true #2, then look at it this way: this swap is an excellent preemptive move to round out the rest of the rotation with whoever isn't included in the next trade package from among Bello, Tolle and Early.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Nick said:

I don't believe you're correct. Options not exercised will be added to current year, thus it will be $41M less $20M = $21M in  2026 and not $10.5M for two years (2026/2027).

Yeah, I think I got that wrong. So, if he get's the 2027 option, do they subtract the $10M?

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yeah, I think I got that wrong. So, if he get's the 2027 option, do they subtract the $10M?

Isn’t the option $30M for 2027? The $10M only comes in if the option isn’t picked up.

[moonslav59]

If our winter budget was $40-45M, the $21M spent on Gray is about half. It would also mean no Alonso, Bregma or  Bichette, among others.

KMarte's AAV is $19.4M, so we could afford him. If Duran is part of the deal, then minus $7.7M.

Maybe the play is to go to the second line or beyond. Chances are there will be a reset after the new CBA.

I like Gray, but he's not the best #2 I had in mind and may be more like a 3. They money still seems high, when the budget is likely tight.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Isn’t the option $30M for 2027? The $10M only comes in if the option isn’t picked up.

Yes, so if the $10M counts on the 2026 tax line, then we shouldn.t be charges $30M for 2027. It should be $20M (30-10.) Do they adjust it depending on whether the option is taken of not?

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, so if the $10M counts on the 2026 tax line, then we shouldn.t be charges $30M for 2027. It should be $20M (30-10.) Do they adjust it depending on whether the option is taken of not?

 

All I know spotrac list $30M for 2027 with a $25M LT.

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Reports are you have become a more credible source since you changed your picture away from shocked face Mo.

Hmmmm… not so sure I agree.

I was thinking of coming back as Bugs Bunny from “Baseball Bugs”

[Cameron Tran]

Sonny Gray finished last year with the 6th best SIERRA, 11th best FIP, and 3rd highest BABIP. Even some of his worse stats (4th in LD%, 16th in Hard%), he finds himself around both Framber and Cease, the top 2 SPers on the market. If Gray works, he can be a very effective #2. At the moment, I see him more as a Giolito replacement, and it seems like the Sox see him as that as well (not much higher from what Gio's option was). Clarke profiles more of a bullpen guy at best due to his high stress delivery and high walk rate, and Fitts likely doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a fringe starter or swing guy. Love this trade for Breslow if we add another starter, slightly upset if we don't. Gray will likely go down the sinker/cutter pipeline as his fastball has rapidly declined, but his command and breaking balls are arguably at their best points. Should be a shoe in for 28-32 starts as well. 

[harmony]

Despite being a cumulative stat, WAR does not adequately appreciate bulk.

Over the past three years Sonny Gray has averaged 177 innings per season with an ERA of 3.63 and an ERA+ of 116. Only 10 pitchers have thrown more innings over that period.

Those bulk pitchers provide value by saving a bullpen that overwise would be overtaxed by less durable starters.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, FredLynn said:

I for one am sick and tired of the Flops dumpster diving for players like Gray.

That's ridiculous.  FG projects him to be one of the best pitchers in BB with a 3.45 ERA and a 4.0 WAR.

[harmony]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That's ridiculous.  FG projects him to be one of the best pitchers in BB with a 3.45 ERA and a 4.0 WAR.

Steamer projects Sonny Gray ninth among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried and Joe Ryan, among others:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764042313&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Why trade for a 1 and done pitcher? 

Maybe it has something to do with needing 5 starting pitchers, and we only had 2 SPs, and 6 guys trying out for the #3, #4, and #5 slots.  Even with Gray, I think we need another SP, preferably a #2 type.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Cameron Tran said:

Sonny Gray finished last year with the 6th best SIERRA, 11th best FIP, and 3rd highest BABIP. Even some of his worse stats (4th in LD%, 16th in Hard%), he finds himself around both Framber and Cease, the top 2 SPers on the market. If Gray works, he can be a very effective #2. At the moment, I see him more as a Giolito replacement, and it seems like the Sox see him as that as well (not much higher from what Gio's option was). Clarke profiles more of a bullpen guy at best due to his high stress delivery and high walk rate, and Fitts likely doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a fringe starter or swing guy. Love this trade for Breslow if we add another starter, slightly upset if we don't. Gray will likely go down the sinker/cutter pipeline as his fastball has rapidly declined, but his command and breaking balls are arguably at their best points. Should be a shoe in for 28-32 starts as well. 

I agree on all counts.  I want a #2 (or even a #1), but if they choose to focus on hitting, I can live with this rotation.  Gray could always get old at any time, but he was terrific last year.  Clarke has some talent, but his BB9 rate was reminiscent of Darwinzon.

[harmony]

FWIW Sonny Gray is a year younger today than Curt Schilling was on November 28, 2003, when the Red Sox acquired Schilling in trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml#all_transactions_other

Gray is also seven inches shorter than Schilling.

Schilling had a good first season in Boston, leading the Red Sox to their first World Series title since 1918.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

FWIW Sonny Gray is a year younger today than Curt Schilling was on November 28, 2003, when the Red Sox acquired Schilling in trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml#all_transactions_other

Gray is also seven inches shorter than Schilling.

Schilling had a good first season in Boston, leading the Red Sox to their first World Series title since 1918.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml

With an average of 177 innings over the past three years, I am not worried about gray’s height. 
 

however I am worried that his fastball got hit pretty hard last year!  

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If our winter budget was $40-45M, the $21M spent on Gray is about half. It would also mean no Alonso, Bregma or  Bichette, among others.

KMarte's AAV is $19.4M, so we could afford him. If Duran is part of the deal, then minus $7.7M.

Maybe the play is to go to the second line or beyond. Chances are there will be a reset after the new CBA.

I like Gray, but he's not the best #2 I had in mind and may be more like a 3. They money still seems high, when the budget is likely tight.

The budget was higher than 40M to be sure. They had more than that just coming off the books. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Gray and Mookie Betts are each listed at 5 feet, 10 inches tall. 

That should be an omen to Red Sox fans anticipating a title, because Mookie hasn't won a World Series in 4 of the past 8 seasons. That's half the time.

[notin]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

FWIW Sonny Gray is a year younger today than Curt Schilling was on November 28, 2003, when the Red Sox acquired Schilling in trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schilcu01.shtml#all_transactions_other

Gray is also seven inches shorter than Schilling.

Schilling had a good first season in Boston, leading the Red Sox to their first World Series title since 1918.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2004.shtml

Gray is a full 7 inches shorter, but as you pointed out, he’s a year younger.  Maybe he’ll have a growth spurt in his late 30’s…

[drewski6]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If our winter budget was $40-45M, the $21M spent on Gray is about half. It would also mean no Alonso, Bregma or  Bichette, among others.

KMarte's AAV is $19.4M, so we could afford him. If Duran is part of the deal, then minus $7.7M.

Maybe the play is to go to the second line or beyond. Chances are there will be a reset after the new CBA.

I like Gray, but he's not the best #2 I had in mind and may be more like a 3. They money still seems high, when the budget is likely tight.

My initial reaction was pretty close to this.  The cons, initially, were 1. 20m off the "40m budget" and 2. we gave a chip for a 1 yr pitcher at 36 yrs old

But in a world where borderline #4 starters are getting (and sometimes rejecting) the QO, it really shows that you just have to pay a significant AAV premium for a short term contract, especially a 1 yr contract.  No way we could have gotten Sonny as a FA for a 1 yr deal less than the QO.  So there was value in the trade, and looking into Clarke, his top 2 secondaries are horizontal movement pitches, which generally means great vs lefty not as much vs righty (reliever risk), and his fastball plays down (per soxprospects).  I can live with it, and with all the pitches we have on 40 man, I dont think Fitts was surviving the crunch anyways.

So its a good deal. Gray with his still elite peripherals (no way to cast #1 in K/BB as anything but elite), is prob still a solid #2 , albeit just a 1 yr fill-in.  But he'll fill in well I suspect.

And we arent going to hard stop at 20m from here (40m total), I dont think this takes us out of the running for one of the four FA (Bregman, Bichettte, ALonso, Schwarber). Doesnt mean we'll for sure get one, and I am worried about "out of nowhere" teams coming in and grabbing a few of these guys (e.g. the Giants, or a small market team with new owners who want to change their perception).  But I dont think the 20m for Gray really impacts the likelihoood here.

So I like the move. Full stop.  Whereas initially I was an "I like the move, but...  That "but" is no longer there for me

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, harmony said:

Despite being a cumulative stat, WAR does not adequately appreciate bulk.

Over the past three years Sonny Gray has averaged 177 innings per season with an ERA of 3.63 and an ERA+ of 116. Only 10 pitchers have thrown more innings over that period.

Those bulk pitchers provide value by saving a bullpen that overwise would be overtaxed by less durable starters.

Very true, and one key factor is that the whole bottom can fall out, if there is a sharp decline or injury that lessens the innings.

The quality of those innings going forward matters.

Gray was 3rd in ERA- in 2023 and 35th  in 2024, then 40th in 2025.  That's a scary trend for a 36 year old. Yes, he still had some decent side numbers that give us promise and hope, but once again, we've added a question mark at about the same money Buehler got, last year.

That being said, I'd prefer Gray over Buehler- pre2025.

2023-2024

7th in FIP (3rd in xFIP) and 26th in ERA ay 4.07

His ERA- is 100 (dead average) 26th out of 37 qualifiers. (38th out of 54 with 300+ IP and 68th out of 114 with 200+ IP, Bello is at 93 & Houck 97, despite his awful '25 numbers)

5th in K-BB%

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The budget was higher than 40M to be sure. They had more than that just coming off the books. 

I was looking at the first tax line.

Yes, we had a lot coming off, but we extended Crochet, Anthony and Campbell. Others got some slight raises. The good thing is no big arb raises.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My initial reaction was pretty close to this.  The cons, initially, were 1. 20m off the "40m budget" and 2. we gave a chip for a 1 yr pitcher at 36 yrs old

But in a world where borderline #4 starters are getting (and sometimes rejecting) the QO, it really shows that you just have to pay a significant AAV premium for a short term contract, especially a 1 yr contract.  No way we could have gotten Sonny as a FA for a 1 yr deal less than the QO.  So there was value in the trade, and looking into Clarke, his top 2 secondaries are horizontal movement pitches, which generally means great vs lefty not as much vs righty (reliever risk), and his fastball plays down (per soxprospects).  I can live with it, and with all the pitches we have on 40 man, I dont think Fitts was surviving the crunch anyways.

So its a good deal. Gray with his still elite peripherals (no way to cast #1 in K/BB as anything but elite), is prob still a solid #2 , albeit just a 1 yr fill-in.  But he'll fill in well I suspect.

And we arent going to hard stop at 20m from here (40m total), I dont think this takes us out of the running for one of the four FA (Bregman, Bichettte, ALonso, Schwarber). Doesnt mean we'll for sure get one, and I am worried about "out of nowhere" teams coming in and grabbing a few of these guys (e.g. the Giants, or a small market team with new owners who want to change their perception).  But I dont think the 20m for Gray really impacts the likelihoood here.

So I like the move. Full stop.  Whereas initially I was an "I like the move, but...  That "but" is no longer there for me

I'm okay with the deal within a context, so that's a big BUT.

Had we traded for Ryan or Lodolo, we'd have need to give up way more, but their salaries are much lower, thereby leaving money for 2 big bats.

Unless we get 2 big bats, the signing might look like a big BUTT!

[harmony]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Very true, and one key factor is that the whole bottom can fall out, if there is a sharp decline or injury that lessens the innings.

The quality of those innings going forward matters.

Gray was 3rd in ERA- in 2023 and 35th  in 2024, then 40th in 2025.  That's a scary trend for a 36 year old. Yes, he still had some decent side numbers that give us promise and hope, but once again, we've added a question mark at about the same money Buehler got, last year.

That being said, I'd prefer Gray over Buehler- pre2025.

2023-2024

7th in FIP (3rd in xFIP) and 26th in ERA ay 4.07

His ERA- is 100 (dead average) 26th out of 37 qualifiers. (38th out of 54 with 300+ IP and 68th out of 114 with 200+ IP, Bello is at 93 & Houck 97, despite his awful '25 numbers)

5th in K-BB%

Steamer projects Sonny Gray 10th among all pitchers in 2026 WAR, ahead of Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Joe Ryan and Freddy Peralta, among others:

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=pit&pos=&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1764128644&sortcol=&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard