Tarik Skubal's Availability Poses An Interesting Red Sox Dilemma: Patience or Aggression?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

As the spokesperson for the website, let's try to get along today everybody. None of this is that important to get huffy about. 🫂

Well said. Let's be thankful he wasn't sitting at our table for turkey.

[JoeBrady]

15 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I’m not in the slightest was suggesting Yoshida is a DFA candidate but that’s. 1.143 OPS in 7 plate appearances

7….with 0 XBH

Okay, I didn't have to add the playoffs.   But there is almost no indication that Yoshida is not a good hitter.  He's a lefty, and gets paid $18M+.  But FG projects him as a wRC+ of 112.  I think the RS corner the market on fans that think that, if a guy isn't a star, he's waiver bait.  I don't consider Yoshida a problem whatsoever.

[Hugh2]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Okay, I didn't have to add the playoffs.   But there is almost no indication that Yoshida is not a good hitter.  He's a lefty, and gets paid $18M+.  But FG projects him as a wRC+ of 112.  I think the RS corner the market on fans that think that, if a guy isn't a star, he's waiver bait.  I don't consider Yoshida a problem whatsoever.

Yeah no that’s fine, I’d you’re trading one of your outfielders and adding a big bat on the infield he’s fine at DH.  Not prototypical but he’s not a bad hitter and by no means a black hole in the lineup.  Doesn’t strike out, makes contact, I get it.

[notin]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

errors are facts

Actually, they’re opinions…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Actually, they’re opinions…

Not in Yankee Stadium if Judge hits one and someone drops it. Ask anyone in the stands.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not in Yankee Stadium if Judge hits one and someone drops it. Ask anyone in the stands.

Or in old Memorial Stadium if Cal Ripken was on an errorless streak…

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

Actually, they’re opinions…

Good point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

51 minutes ago, notin said:

Actually, they’re opinions…

That's a fact (that many dispute).

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Okay, I didn't have to add the playoffs.   But there is almost no indication that Yoshida is not a good hitter.  He's a lefty, and gets paid $18M+.  But FG projects him as a wRC+ of 112.  I think the RS corner the market on fans that think that, if a guy isn't a star, he's waiver bait.  I don't consider Yoshida a problem whatsoever.

His contract is, but yes, if we add 2 infielders, that add offense, then he's fine at DH.

I'm not sure I'd count Casas as one of those infield additions, but Brez & Co probably are. (I doubt we sign Alonso. Maybe we add J Bell or Hoskins.)

If we settle on just Bregman or Bichette, our offense did not get any better than it was opening day 2025 (with Devers & Bregman- not to mention Refsnyder.)

If add just one bat, to me K Marte would be the best, and since we hardly used any major trade capital to get our SP'er, I think we can find a way to outbid everyone else for KMarte. We'll have to make do with Mayer/Romy at 3B and Casas (Romy) at 1B with Masa (Romy or Ref?) at DH. If we only add one bat, I might switch my call to trade Duran, but instead trade Rafaela with others for KMarte. We'd need Duran's bat.

This might be the line-up, which still looks worse than the one with Devers, Bregman and Anthony:

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF (R Ref RF)

7. L Masa DH/ R Ref or Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

 

[Larry Cook]

On 11/29/2025 at 10:18 AM, moonslav59 said:

His contract is, but yes, if we add 2 infielders, that add offense, then he's fine at DH.

I'm not sure I'd count Casas as one of those infield additions, but Brez & Co probably are. (I doubt we sign Alonso. Maybe we add J Bell or Hoskins.)

If we settle on just Bregman or Bichette, our offense did not get any better than it was opening day 2025 (with Devers & Bregman- not to mention Refsnyder.)

If add just one bat, to me K Marte would be the best, and since we hardly used any major trade capital to get our SP'er, I think we can find a way to outbid everyone else for KMarte. We'll have to make do with Mayer/Romy at 3B and Casas (Romy) at 1B with Masa (Romy or Ref?) at DH. If we only add one bat, I might switch my call to trade Duran, but instead trade Rafaela with others for KMarte. We'd need Duran's bat.

This might be the line-up, which still looks worse than the one with Devers, Bregman and Anthony:

1. L Anthony CF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF (R Ref RF)

7. L Masa DH/ R Ref or Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B

 

Opening day 2025, we did not have Anthony or Mayer either. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Opening day 2025, we did not have Anthony or Mayer either. 

Yes, and we lost about 850 PAs from Devers and Bregman. Anthony had 300, so he cannot make up 850.

Mayer is a long shot to hit like Devers or Bregman, so let's assume Anthony gets 650 PAs and has no sophomore slump. That leaves 500 PAs for ????. Bringing Bregman back might keep us even and not a top contender for one more year. 

The window is open. We need to be bold. Hoping on Mayer is not a good plan.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and we lost about 850 PAs from Devers and Bregman. Anthony had 300, so he cannot make up 850.

Mayer is a long shot to hit like Devers or Bregman, so let's assume Anthony gets 650 PAs and has no sophomore slump. That leaves 500 PAs for ????. Bringing Bregman back might keep us even and not a top contender for one more year. 

The window is open. We need to be bold. Hoping on Mayer is not a good plan.

I do not know if it is hope versus development. 
 

mayer is a hitter. No doubt in my mind. He just needs to stay healthy and see pitches. The kid can hit really well!! 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I do not know if it is hope versus development. 
mayer is a hitter. No doubt in my mind. He just needs to stay healthy and see pitches. The kid can hit really well!! 

If that happens, then great, but Mayer cannot be the plan.

I'm fine with handing Mayer and Romy a platoon at 2B or even 3B, but only if we add 2 big bats.

(Alonso & Bregman. Alonso $ KMarte or Alonso & Polanco.)

[Larry Cook]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If that happens, then great, but Mayer cannot be the plan.

I'm fine with handing Mayer and Romy a platoon at 2B or even 3B, but only if we add 2 big bats.

(Alonso & Bregman. Alonso $ KMarte or Alonso & Polanco.)

Alonso would be a shock to me if we went that route, but bres-slow has shocked me before!  (Crochet trade) 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Alonso would be a shock to me if we went that route, but bres-slow has shocked me before!  (Crochet trade) 

I'm 99.9% sure we aren't getting two bats, so I'm pulling for the one we do get to be one of the top 3.

1. K Marte, and he fills the 2B need. (Switch hitter, too.)

2. Schwarber, but he'd have to play 1B or push Masa to LF or the bench. (Trade Duran?)

3. Alonso is a bad defensive 1Bman, but so is Casas. He'll probably DH eventually.

(Bragman, Bichette or Polanco barely keep us even.)

[JoeBrady]

On 11/30/2025 at 6:51 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and we lost about 850 PAs from Devers and Bregman. Anthony had 300, so he cannot make up 850.

Mayer is a long shot to hit like Devers or Bregman, so let's assume Anthony gets 650 PAs and has no sophomore slump. That leaves 500 PAs for ????. Bringing Bregman back might keep us even and not a top contender for one more year. 

The window is open. We need to be bold. Hoping on Mayer is not a good plan.

If you're just talking making up PAs, the Yoshida and Casas will add 700-800 PAs.  There's another way to look at this.  Go position and just or subtract from the 2026v2025 totals.  Just keeping it real simple;

• Catcher E
• 1B +100
• 2B E
• SS E
• 3B -50
• OF + DH E

Keep in mind that we are not replacing Bregman with Mayer.  We are replacing our 2025 3B OPS of .777 with Mayer's B-R projected .729.  And replacing our 1B's .691 with Casas' .791.

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm 99.9% sure we aren't getting two bats, so I'm pulling for the one we do get to be one of the top 3.

1. K Marte, and he fills the 2B need. (Switch hitter, too.)

2. Schwarber, but he'd have to play 1B or push Masa to LF or the bench. (Trade Duran?)

3. Alonso is a bad defensive 1Bman, but so is Casas. He'll probably DH eventually.

(Bragman, Bichette or Polanco barely keep us even.)

The improvement can come from replacing the 730 or so PA’s from Toro, Hamilton and Campbell as well…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

The improvement can come from replacing the 730 or so PA’s from Toro, Hamilton and Campbell as well…

I say this every year, and then there is a new group of bottom dwellers with 730 or more PAs.

in 2024...

223 PAs E valdes .633

158 McGuire .575

114 Grissom .465

96 Jansen .623

93 Dalbec .410

86 Sogard .650

75 Cooper .455

64 Reyes .451

48 Westbrook .584

(Not to mention .664 from Rafaela w 571 PAs  & DHam at .697 w 317 PAs.)

[moonslav59]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

If you're just talking making up PAs, the Yoshida and Casas will add 700-800 PAs.  There's another way to look at this.  Go position and just or subtract from the 2026v2025 totals.  Just keeping it real simple;

• Catcher E
• 1B +100
• 2B E
• SS E
• 3B -50
• OF + DH E

Keep in mind that we are not replacing Bregman with Mayer.  We are replacing our 2025 3B OPS of .777 with Mayer's B-R projected .729.  And replacing our 1B's .691 with Casas' .791.

If we are counting on getting better with Casas and Mayer picking up the slack, count me out.
Also counting on an .823 OPS at DH in 2026, something Masa has never reached is a stretch.

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we are counting on getting better with Casas and Mayer picking up the slack, count me out.
Also counting on an .823 OPS at DH in 2026, something Masa has never reached is a stretch.

I think Mayer can pick up some slack in his second go around. How much? IDK. He's not Roman Anthony.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we are counting on getting better with Casas and Mayer picking up the slack, count me out.
Also counting on an .823 OPS at DH in 2026, something Masa has never reached is a stretch.

You have to include Anthony's bat in there.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think Mayer can pick up some slack in his second go around. How much? IDK. He's not Roman Anthony.

He certainly isn't as good as Anthony.  But my +/- theory says that we got a .777 out of 3B last year.  B-R projects a .729 from Mayer.  So, theoretically, we lose 48 points.  FG projects a .723, so that would be a loss of 54 points.  Obviously, any projection could be higher or lower, but when averaging the +/- across 9 positions, we won't be off by a material amount.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

You have to include Anthony's bat in there.

I was responding to someone naming those two.

I've already gone through the lost 830+ PAs from Devers and Bregman plus some by Lowe & Ref that were on the plus side.

Anthony had 300 PAs in 2025, so maybe he can get 300-350 more in '25. We need to replace about 1150 from Devers, Bregman, Ref & Lowe. Let's give 350 to Anthony. That leaves 800 for Mayer & Casas to hit over .800 in.

I'm not buying it. If they give us anything plus, maybe it will be enough to put us over the top. I'd rather see them in that light. For now, we need to replace those 800 PAs with at least one mega bat or two decent ones.

[vjcsmoke]

I didn't realize we were operating without a GM. It's a wonder deals get done. Guess Breslow has been handling it by himself somehow.

As for Skubal he would definitely be a 1 year rental with no guarantee to resign him because of his agent history. He would go to the highest bidder the next year.

I love the talent but I don't like giving up a lot of assets in a trade unless he agrees to negotiate a long term deal as condition of the trade. But that's likely not happening.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

He certainly isn't as good as Anthony.  But my +/- theory says that we got a .777 out of 3B last year.  B-R projects a .729 from Mayer.  So, theoretically, we lose 48 points.  FG projects a .723, so that would be a loss of 54 points.  Obviously, any projection could be higher or lower, but when averaging the +/- across 9 positions, we won't be off by a material amount.

I definitely depends on how the Sox spend and where he plays. If he's at 2b, I think the position will be better off overall due to his defense. At 3b, there will be a dropoff. I'd assume there'd be a big signing for 1b in that case though. 

[Hitch]

On 12/2/2025 at 4:43 AM, JoeBrady said:

If you're just talking making up PAs, the Yoshida and Casas will add 700-800 PAs.  There's another way to look at this.  Go position and just or subtract from the 2026v2025 totals.  Just keeping it real simple;

• Catcher E
• 1B +100
• 2B E
• SS E
• 3B -50
• OF + DH E

Keep in mind that we are not replacing Bregman with Mayer.  We are replacing our 2025 3B OPS of .777 with Mayer's B-R projected .729.  And replacing our 1B's .691 with Casas' .791.

I'm not sure we can count on 70/80 PA's from Casas. 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm not sure we can count on 70/80 PA's from Casas. 

If the FO thinks he won't return until September, then we find a replacement.  But I haven't seen anything in that regard yet.

[drewski6]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm not sure we can count on 70/80 PA's from Casas. 

Im not sure I want more than 70/80 PA's from Casas.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im not sure I want more than 70/80 PA's from Casas.

Casas might be the next Bobby Dee, but I think he can hit over .825.

We just need to line his uniform with bubble wrap and braces.