Predicting LT payroll

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

How about “the Sox don’t have Tampa-level financial concerns?”

I think we can all agree on this.

[notin]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

Alonso with Marte (and a Ryan type) would be my ideal winter. Bregman or Bo would be great, too, but I don't see it as likely with Alonso.

Alonso, Marte and Lodolo is my perfect off-season.

But Alonso, Polanco and Ryan is much more likely…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

How about “the Sox don’t have Tampa-level financial concerns?”

Though they once did, when they also had to pay the Yankees to play at home.

It was in the years 1920-33, when the Sox paid annual mortgage on Fenway Park to Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert -- basically the vig on a loan to Harry Frazee because stealing Babe Ruth wasn't enough...

... Ole Harry was some business man.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

How about “the Sox don’t have Tampa-level financial concerns?”

They had to trade their franchise player because they couldn't afford him. 🫠

[notin]

9 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Though they once did, when they also had to pay the Yankees to play at home.

It was in the years 1920-33, when the Sox paid annual mortgage on Fenway Park to Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert -- basically the vig on a loan to Harry Frazee because stealing Babe Ruth wasn't enough...

... Ole Harry was some business man.

And that is exactly why Harry Frazee is not running this team today…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Alonso, Marte and Lodolo is my perfect off-season.

But Alonso, Polanco and Ryan is much more likely…

As much as I think we have enough trade capital to pull off two big trades (like option A) and still have a deep enough 40 and farm, I do not think Brez & Co. sees it that way.

My gut says these guys are not gonna spend big bucks on a top batter or pitcher, so I hope to hell we make two trades. It's not like K Marte makes peanuts, but his AAV is $19.4. That's a lot lower than Bichette or Bregman will be. Marte is 32 and has 5 years left on his contract, so that might be the thing that stops that deal from going down- from the Sox side. If we could get them to take Hicks, I'd add extra value in players.

If the deal is Duran, I'm not sure he what AZ wants, and likely MN does not want him, so we'd need a third team involved. BTV says Duran for Lodolo is a big overpay, but I'd probably do it. Again, Duran + Hicks for Lodolo works for BTV but almost certainly not the budget-minded Reds.

Polanco is also 32, but may not demand a 5 year deal. He may even go for a 1 year mega AAV deal, so he can get a longer deal after a great 2026 season. That's a big bet on himself. I do agree that guys like Polanco and maybe Suarez are on the Sox radar due to their likelihood of taking shorter deals than Bregman, Alonso & Bichette.

Most likely winter outcome? It's hard to know where the budget will be set, but I'll go with...

Alcantara, Polanco, D Williams and Hoskins. (Maybe Suarez instead of Hoskins, if JH coughs up more cash. Maybe no DW if we get Suarez.)

[notin]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

They had to trade their franchise player because they couldn't afford him. 🫠

Yeah but Tampa does that with plenty of lesser players every year…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

And that is exactly why Harry Frazee is not running this team today…

There is another major reason, too.

[Hitch]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Bregman and Bichette feels odd.  I mean, who plays 1b and where does Mayer play?

No, I mean Alonso and Marte would be my ideal, but I'd be okay with Alonso and either one of Bregman or Bo as well.

Basically Alonso and another or I'm very worried about our power.

[notin]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

As much as I think we have enough trade capital to pull off two big trades (like option A) and still have a deep enough 40 and farm, I do not think Brez & Co. sees it that way.

My gut says these guys are not gonna spend big bucks on a top batter or pitcher, so I hope to hell we make two trades. It's not like K Marte makes peanuts, but his AAV is $19.4. That's a lot lower than Bichette or Bregman will be. Marte is 32 and has 5 years left on his contract, so that might be the thing that stops that deal from going down- from the Sox side. If we could get them to take Hicks, I'd add extra value in players.

If the deal is Duran, I'm not sure he what AZ wants, and likely MN does not want him, so we'd need a third team involved. BTV says Duran for Lodolo is a big overpay, but I'd probably do it. Again, Duran + Hicks for Lodolo works for BTV but almost certainly not the budget-minded Reds.

Polanco is also 32, but may not demand a 5 year deal. He may even go for a 1 year mega AAV deal, so he can get a longer deal after a great 2026 season. That's a big bet on himself. I do agree that guys like Polanco and maybe Suarez are on the Sox radar due to their likelihood of taking shorter deals than Bregman, Alonso & Bichette.

Most likely winter outcome? It's hard to know where the budget will be set, but I'll go with...

Alcantara, Polanco, D Williams and Hoskins. (Maybe Suarez instead of Hoskins, if JH coughs up more cash. Maybe no DW if we get Suarez.)

I’d rather have Williams and Hoskins/Bell over Suarez.

Suarez is looking pretty one dimensional.  The man hit 49 HRs and still had a lower OPS than Romy Gonzalez…

[Hitch]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

Alonso, Marte and Lodolo is my perfect off-season.

But Alonso, Polanco and Ryan is much more likely…

Is there much talk about Lodolo being traded? I haven't been following him at all to be honest. I don't know a great deal about him in general outside of his stats I just looked up.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

No, I mean Alonso and Marte would be my ideal, but I'd be okay with Alonso and either one of Bregman or Bo as well.

Basically Alonso and another or I'm very worried about our power.

As much as I don’t like the Polar Bear, he really checks the most boxes of any free agent hitter…

[notin]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Is there much talk about Lodolo being traded? I haven't been following him at all to be honest. I don't know a great deal about him in general outside of his stats I just looked up.

On here? Yes.  In the Cincy offices? Probably none.  But some clickbait Cincy guy wrote a nonsensical article about trading Hunter Greene,and trading Lodolo at the very least makes more sense than that.

Now Brady Singer is a likely trade chip.  And he is a very talented pitcher on par with Joe Ryan.  But Singer’s issue is he only has one year left, which makes trading any MLB outfielder for him a really bad idea.  Except maybe Password, but not sure Cincy wants that…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There is another major reason, too.

The President of the American League, Ban Johnson. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d rather have Williams and Hoskins/Bell over Suarez.

Suarez is looking pretty one dimensional.  The man hit 49 HRs and still had a lower OPS than Romy Gonzalez…

What scares me most about Suarez is his age and recent numbers that are significantly worse than his 2025 age 34 season:

OPS+

128 2018-2020 (prime years)

78 in '21

130 in '22

105 in '23

127 in '24

Okay, the homers got me hooked (lined and sunk) but 34 HRs per 162 since 2021 is kinda what we need.

My mention of Suarez, so often is more out of the idea that JH wants Brez to find shorter term deals. I'd much rather have Alonso, Schwarber or K Marte.

I think I'd rather have Polanco over Suarez, because he is 2 years younger, but I worry 2025 was a fluke, and he hasn't had over 525 PAs since 2021. I'd also prefer a Mayer-Romy platoon at 2B over 3B, but with the Suarez defense at 3B, that sort of negates that aspect of wanting Suarez over Polanco.

To me, two big trades makes the most sense:

1. Ryan or Lodolo

2. Marte

If we don't get Marte, then sign Polanco and maybe trade for a 1Bman? Who? or just sign Hoskins/Bell. That would make JH very happier. Maybe trade for BLowe or Donovan not KMarte?

My dream:

Ryan or Lodolo

then....

KMarte & Alonso

of

Alonso & Polanco/BLowe/Donovan

None of these suggestions seem overly expensive or outlandish.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

On here? Yes.  In the Cincy offices? Probably none.  But some clickbait Cincy guy wrote a nonsensical article about trading Hunter Greene,and trading Lodolo at the very least makes more sense than that.

Now Brady Singer is a likely trade chip.  And he is a very talented pitcher on par with Joe Ryan.  But Singer’s issue is he only has one year left, which makes trading any MLB outfielder for him a really bad idea.  Except maybe Password, but not sure Cincy wants that…

Brady Singer is not on par with Joe Ryan. Singer is at the Merrill Kelly level. 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

As much as I don’t like the Polar Bear, he really checks the most boxes of any free agent hitter…

Doesn't pull the ball enough. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

On here? Yes.  In the Cincy offices? Probably none.  But some clickbait Cincy guy wrote a nonsensical article about trading Hunter Greene,and trading Lodolo at the very least makes more sense than that.

Now Brady Singer is a likely trade chip.  And he is a very talented pitcher on par with Joe Ryan.  But Singer’s issue is he only has one year left, which makes trading any MLB outfielder for him a really bad idea.  Except maybe Password, but not sure Cincy wants that…

The other one year guy talked about is Peralta.

Do you trade Campbell for him? PASSWORD + Crawford?

Bubic is another one year guy.

[UtahSox]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

Alonso, Marte and Lodolo is my perfect off-season.

But Alonso, Polanco and Ryan is much more likely…

Alonso, Polanco, Ryan is like B- work out of Breslow. Next year‘s free agency will be heavy pitcher laden so I think it’s really important. We had some quality bats if this is indeed a window. 

Alonso, Bregman, trading an OF + farm guys for Ketel Marte. And then trading MM for SP2 would be my perfect off-season.

[moonslav59]

Just now, UtahSox said:

Alonso, Polanco, Ryan is like B- work out of Breslow. Next year‘s free agency will be heavy pitcher laden so I think it’s really important. We had some quality bats if this is indeed a window. 

Alonso, Bregman, trading an OF + farm guys for Ketel Marte. And then trading MM for SP2 would be my perfect off-season.

It might take MM+ to get KMarte, but that works, too, if we can get a SP2 for Duran (via 3rd team?)

Alonso & Bregman seem to check the big "clubhouse guy" box, but I don't have faith in Bregman aging well, and he will probably get a 5 year deal. The Sox and 5 or more year deals don't grow on trees, and most have not worked out well. Also, I think Alonso gets 5 years, so 5 years for Alosno, Bregman and a trade for 32 year old KMarte w 5 years left seems almost impossible.

I realize this is just your hope, and I like that infield you constructed (O & D) and the SP'er we could get for MM and maybe others would likely be better than a Duran+ others deal can get us.

Given the idea that Brez will have a restricted budget, I disagree on your B- grade for Alonso, Polanco & Ryan. I'd prefer KMarte over Polanco, but I'd still give that 3 player job a B+ or even A-.

I think we'd be a top contender with Alonso, Ryan and Polanco. 3B would be a worry. Polanco would be, too. I'd assume no Duran to get Ryan, so the O takes a dip a little there, but the two gains more than make up for that. The D is no better with Alonso & Polanco.

[Hugh2]

Ok time to go stupid stupid crazy fantasy:

Here is a trade ideal: 

Red Sox Get

Nick Lodolo, Ketel Marte, & Noevli Marte

Reds Get:

Marcelo Mayer & Yordanny Monegro

Diamondbacks get: 

Jarren Duran/Tyson Lewis. 

Sox Turn around and trade with the Twins

Twins get: Connelly Early/Wilyer Abreu

Red Sox get: Joe Ryan.

 

Starting Rotation: Crochet/Ryan/Lodolo/Bello/Crawford

Line up:

C. Narvaez

1B. Alonso

2B. Marte

SS. Story

3B Okamoto

LF. Noevli Marte/Garcia

CF. Rafaela

RF Anthony

DH. Yoshida/Casas

That's a team that can compete for a pennant

[Hugh2]

Take all the effing Martes, I have cornered the Merte market. 

[notin]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Brady Singer is not on par with Joe Ryan. Singer is at the Merrill Kelly level. 

Stop.  Merrill Kelly is old enough to be Brady Singer’s dad.

Singer just finished his age 28 season with 12.1 bWAR.  Ryan just finished his age 29 season with 11 bWAR.  I think there is an argument there for Singer…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok time to go stupid stupid crazy fantasy:

Here is a trade ideal: 

Red Sox Get

Nick Lodolo, Ketel Marte, & Noevli Marte

Reds Get:

Marcelo Mayer & Yordanny Monegro

Diamondbacks get: 

Jarren Duran/Tyson Lewis. 

Sox Turn around and trade with the Twins

Twins get: Connelly Early/Wilyer Abreu

Red Sox get: Joe Ryan.

 

Starting Rotation: Crochet/Ryan/Lodolo/Bello/Crawford

Line up:

C. Narvaez

1B. Alonso

2B. Marte

SS. Story

3B Okamoto

LF. Noevli Marte/Garcia

CF. Rafaela

RF Anthony

DH. Yoshida/Casas

That's a team that can compete for a pennant

Not bad.

I wonder why get RHB N Marte, when we have RHBs Garcia & Campbell for LF. I might try to give Garcia or Campbell and keep LHB Abreu.

I'm not sure AZ gives up KMarte for the two you suggested.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Stop.  Merrill Kelly is old enough to be Brady Singer’s dad.

Singer just finished his age 28 season with 12.1 bWAR.  Ryan just finished his age 29 season with 11 bWAR.  I think there is an argument there for Singer…

The only think M Kelly has going for him is a likely 1-2 year deal with no trade capital expended.

2023-2025 (450+ IP- 40 qualified pitchers)

fWAR:

5. S Gray 12.8 (trade?)

7. Valdez 12.1

8. Cease 11.7

10. Lopez 9.6 (trade?)

14. Gallen 9.0

15. Peralta 8.9

17. Ryan 8.6 (trade?)

18. Bibee 8.2 (trade?)

19. Castillo 8.2 (trade?)

21. Burnes 8.0

22. Keller 7.9 (trade?)

26. Bassitt 7.4

27. Singer 7.3 (trade)

28. Ober 6.6 (trade)

Bello is 31st (5.4)

___________

ERA-

74 Burns

81 Peralta & Valdez

88 Gray, Lopez

89 Bibee

91 Castillo

92 Ryan

Bello 93

95 Bassitt

98 Keller & Gore

100 Ober

101 Singer (YUCK!)

_____________

xFIP

3.64 Ryan

4.04 Singer

_______________

K-BB%

2. Ryan 23.5

29. Singer 13.9

______________

M Kelly might be their father, but Ryan is Singer's Daddy!

 

 

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Stop.  Merrill Kelly is old enough to be Brady Singer’s dad.

Singer just finished his age 28 season with 12.1 bWAR.  Ryan just finished his age 29 season with 11 bWAR.  I think there is an argument there for Singer…

If your argument is only "here are the bWAR numbers" you got nothing. 

Past 3 years:

Ryan - 467 IP, 10.35 k/9, 1.85 bb/9, 3.85 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 8.6 fWAR (22nd in MLB)

Singer - 509 IP, 8.24 k/9, 2.88 bb/9, 4.39 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 7.3 fWAR (34th in MLB)

Kelly - 435 IP, 8.62 k/9, 2.81 bb/9, 3.51 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 6.9 fWAR (36th in MLB)

Singer's line is a lot closer to Kelly's than you are letting on. 

[mvp 78]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Ok time to go stupid stupid crazy fantasy:

 

They aren't paying for Alonso, Marte, Ryan and Okamoto. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't paying for Alonso, Marte, Ryan and Okamoto. 

Unless it’s for Alan Alonso, José Marte, and Ryan Noda…

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't paying for Alonso, Marte, Ryan and Okamoto. 

Ryan is not financially expensive. KMarte's AAV is $19,4M.

Question: do the Sox have KMarte's $19.4 AAV counted going forward, or did they change the rules to make it adjusted to remaining AAV on his deal?

[Hugh2]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Not bad.

I wonder why get RHB N Marte, when we have RHBs Garcia & Campbell for LF. I might try to give Garcia or Campbell and keep LHB Abreu.

I'm not sure AZ gives up KMarte for the two you suggested.

Tyson Lewis has tremendous upside, they get him with Duran.  That's a haul.