A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Some teams have non-tendered injured players, but it'd be a bad look for the Sox. 

Like Sandoval and the SFG.

[moonslav59]

A look at the 2026 Red Sox Pen:

Many of us went into 2025 deeply dissatisfied with the quality of our pen. While it appeared to have depth, the quality of the expected high leverage pitchers was highly in doubt. The pen became one of our strengths, thanks in large part to a stunning season by Chapman and a strong year from Whitlock. The depth came through, despite not really drawing from the expected depth of SP'ers we had lined up over the winter.

We may get to use more SP'ers in the pen in 2026, but I will start with the known pen arms on the roster: 

Chapman had a legendary season, and that is no hyperbole. 61.1 IP with just 28 hits (3 Hrs) and 15 BBs (0 HBP.) He K'd 85. His OPS Against was a mind-boggling .387! It's hard to expect anybody to repeat numbers like that, and for a guy who will be 38 to start the '26 season, it would be miraculous.  Brez extended him, so we'll find out. I'm happy he's here.

Whitlock had his first start-free season since his rookie year in 2021. Some might say it was no coincidence we made the playoffs in just these two seasons. If it wasn't for Chapman, we'd be marvelling at his .543 OPS Against for 2025. In 72 IP, he let up less HRs (2) than Chapman. I'm hopeful he can run back these numbers in '26.

Slaten missed a lot of key time in 2025, and perhaps the most important thing for him is to just stay healthy for the full 2026 season. His rookie 2024 season was pretty amazing. He had a .576 OPS Against in 55 IP with a 6.4 K/BB. Although most of his numbers looked worse in 2026, he still logged a .580 OPS Against over 34 IP. Perhaps we can count on him to counter an expected regression from Chapman. I gotta say, I think we have an impressive top 3 RP'ers.

Weissert caught some grief over the season, much of it during game thread lash-outs, but he did the job in 2025. He very well may outshine Fitts as the prize from the Dugo trade. He put in 67 IP with a decent .647 OPS Against. I'm hoping we can count on him, again in 2026.

Bernardino had a second straight decent season. His .569 OPSA was impressive. He missed some time, near the end of the season, but I think he's locked into a sure slot on the 2026 26 man roster.

Guerrero .530 OPSA in just 17 IP could still win a big role on the '26 roster.

Murphy .598 OPSA in 35 IP looks great, but he walked too many batters and was inconsistent. He was coming off a long time off with injury, so maybe there is till hope for a significant role in 2026.

Winckowski missed most of 2025, but was a decent pitcher for a few years, beforehand. His 2023 saw a 2.88 ERA, but he's never really had great numbers in other areas or measurement.

Moran could be a surprise pitcher for 2026.

Kelly did not impress but will likely get another long look in 2025.

Hicks might have an inside shot at a slot on the 26, but only because he's out of options, gets paid $12M a year and throws near 100 mph.

I won't go into all the SP'ers who may be converted to pen arms or used in the pen temporarily, but there could be some impressive skillsets available.

I'm pretty confident in our 2026 pen outlook, despite losing Wilson, Matz and a few others.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Guerrero .530 OPSA in just 17 IP could still win a big role on the '26 roster.

 

Guerrero 2025:

4.15 ERA

5.92 xFIP

6.25 xERA

260 WOBA

386 xWOBA

7.20 BB/9 (426th out of 440 in RP > 10 IP)

188 BABIP (11th out of 440)

His AAA numbers were atrocious. If he wasn't on the 40 man roster, he never would have been called up. He was extremely lucky this season and the Sox need to have him get away from the heavy slider usage. 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Guerrero 2025:

4.15 ERA

5.92 xFIP

6.25 xERA

260 WOBA

386 xWOBA

7.20 BB/9 (426th out of 440 in RP > 10 IP)

188 BABIP (11th out of 440)

His AAA numbers were atrocious. If he wasn't on the 40 man roster, he never would have been called up. He was extremely lucky this season and the Sox need to have him get away from the heavy slider usage. 

Good points. It seems strange to me that a pitcher can have a .530 OPS Against and still have those horrific side stats.

It makes me wonder if using OPS for batters is worthwhile.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points. It seems strange to me that a pitcher can have a .530 OPS Against and still have those horrific side stats.

It makes me wonder if using OPS for batters is worthwhile.

He pitched less than 20 innings and got very lucky. Not really that surprising TBH. It's why reliever stats vary wildly year to year. He could come back next season with the same stuff and have an ERA of 8.00 because of the bb rate and bad BABIP luck. 

Guerrero pitched like Darwinzon Hernandez with a third of the k's (career 14.03 k/9, 7.7 bb/9). 

[illinoisredsox]

20 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

 However, he turns 32 in March 2026 and missed 7 weeks this season from a recurrence of an earlier injury.  Maybe the Sox can offer 4 x $40 = $160M, which to me is exhorbitant.  Including this season, Bregman's career earnings are $168M.  I would be astounded if another MLB team would offer Bregman $160M.  

This is not a true statement.  Yes, he had a previous quad strain.  However, Bregman’s injury this year was a right quad strain.  In 2021, he was on the IL for a left quad strain.  Not the same body part and 4 years ago, hardly indicative of being injury prone.

Now, he is 32 and his previous 3 seasons have been trending down, which to me is more of a concern than an injury history (Mayer comes to mind regarding injuries).
 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He pitched less than 20 innings and got very lucky. Not really that surprising TBH. It's why reliever stats vary wildly year to year. He could come back next season with the same stuff and have an ERA of 8.00 because of the bb rate and bad BABIP luck. 

Guerrero pitched like Darwinzon Hernandez with a third of the k's (career 14.03 k/9, 7.7 bb/9). 

I get the "luck" and small sample size, but a .530 OPS Against and an ERA and other stats like the ones you posted almost looks like bad luck.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, illinoisredsox said:

This is not a true statement.  Yes, he had a previous quad strain.  However, Bregman’s injury this year was a right quad strain.  In 2021, he was on the IL for a left quad strain.  Not the same body part and 4 years ago, hardly indicative of being injury prone.

Now, he is 32 and his previous 3 seasons have been trending down, which to me is more of a concern than an injury history (Mayer comes to mind regarding injuries).
 

It's all of it in regards to getting older: higher injury risk, production trends down, degraded eyesight and hearing, need for more fiber...

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Although Sean Murphy is not the batter he used to be, I'd see him as a major upgrade over Wong as the #2 catcher and part time DH. He doesn't improve the power much, but maybe we can get him for Hicks, Mullins & Wong.

Sign Alonso, Schwarber or Suarez to play 1B.

Trade Duran and whatever for Joe Ryan or _____.

I seriously doubt we do even this, so asking for a second big bat seems unrealistic. Bringing back Bregman (Mayer at SS and Story at 2B) would help, but would be very expensive. Adding Polanco or Torres at 2B with Mayer at SS and Story at 3B would also help. the offense. KMarte is likely a pipe dream, if we do even just some of this other stuff.

[notin]

One trade I think I’d like to see is Jhostnyxon Garcis to San Diego for RHRP Jeremiah Estrada.

Garcia is a BA Top 100 prospect currently 6th on the Sox OF depth chart, sitting behind Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela and possibly Kristian Campbell.  Using him as a RHH platoon option is a waste.  Either play him or trade him.  And it would take a lot of injuries to need to play him.

San Diego needs an OF.  They have virtually no prospect depth and started the rather vanilla Bryce Johnson in LF during the postseason.  And their bullpen is absolutely stacked with Robert Suarez (whose option will be exercised), Mason Miller, and Adrian Morejon at the backend with Estrada.

A bullpen with Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, and Estrada at the back end can do wonders for the SP, leaving them fewer IP.

BTV does value both players nearly identically.

Make the call, Craig…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Ali Sanchez and Blake Sabol better watch out. 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Although Sean Murphy is not the batter he used to be, I'd see him as a major upgrade over Wong as the #2 catcher and part time DH. He doesn't improve the power much, but maybe we can get him for Hicks, Mullins & Wong.

Sign Alonso, Schwarber or Suarez to play 1B.

Trade Duran and whatever for Joe Ryan or _____.

I seriously doubt we do even this, so asking for a second big bat seems unrealistic. Bringing back Bregman (Mayer at SS and Story at 2B) would help, but would be very expensive. Adding Polanco or Torres at 2B with Mayer at SS and Story at 3B would also help. the offense. KMarte is likely a pipe dream, if we do even just some of this other stuff.

If Bregman returns - still very likely even if he opts out - I think that takes enough budget to limit any new hitter. It probably removes Alonso as an option.  But Rhys Hopkins, who seems geared for Fenway, might still be in play.  
 

If so, the Sox might leave Mayer at 2b and let Story play out his deal, as it (hopefully) takes Boston right to Franklin Arias taking over SS.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

If Bregman returns - still very likely even if he opts out - I think that takes enough budget to limit any new hitter. It probably removes Alonso as an option.  But Rhys Hopkins, who seems geared for Fenway, might still be in play.  
 

If so, the Sox might leave Mayer at 2b and let Story play out his deal, as it (hopefully) takes Boston right to Franklin Arias taking over SS.

Arias may not hit well enough to reach MLB TBH. Godbout debuts before Arias does IMO. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

If Bregman returns - still very likely even if he opts out - I think that takes enough budget to limit any new hitter. It probably removes Alonso as an option.  But Rhys Hopkins, who seems geared for Fenway, might still be in play.  
 

If so, the Sox might leave Mayer at 2b and let Story play out his deal, as it (hopefully) takes Boston right to Franklin Arias taking over SS.

I think that is the likely scenario, if Breggie returns (new deal or no opt out.)

Hoskin would help, but we'd really be putting all our eggs in the Anthony-Mayer basket. If we end up trading Duran or Abreu for pitching, one could argue our on paper offense got worse.

The real possibilities happen, if Bregman opts out. The budget would allow for a significant upgrade for the offense, especially the power aspect of it, with his $32M AAV added to the winter budget, which looks to be close to $35-40M, already (no Lowe & Gio.)

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Not Eric Berkson!!!

[notin]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Arias may not hit well enough to reach MLB TBH. Godbout debuts before Arias does IMO. 

Arias’ calling card is not his bat.  This is true.

I don’t think it keeps him out of MLB, however…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Arias’ calling card is not his bat.  This is true.

I don’t think it keeps him out of MLB, however…

If he's as good on D as some seem to make him out to be, maybe a .675 OPS will be the bar for him.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's all of it in regards to getting older: higher injury risk, production trends down, degraded eyesight and hearing, need for more fiber...

… reliance on private nurses and walkers, complaining the kids don’t call.

We can get all of that from Bregman

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If he's as good on D as some seem to make him out to be, maybe a .675 OPS will be the bar for him.

His D isn't 675 OPS good. He's not Cedanne in CF good. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, notin said:

… reliance on private nurses and walkers, complaining the kids don’t call.

We can get all of that from Bregman

"Can someone please mush up the catering spread for Breggie?"

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

"Can someone please mush up the catering spread for Breggie?"

“No point.  It’s 6:30. He went to bed.  Still grumbling.”

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His D isn't 675 OPS good. He's not Cedanne in CF good. 

Better glove than Mayer?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Better glove than Mayer?

No. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His D isn't 675 OPS good. He's not Cedanne in CF good. 

Well, when the league norm is .720, it's pretty close. BTW, I view SS as a much more impactful position than CF.

When the league norm was .740, then .675 looked god-awful. Now, most teams have 2-3 batters under .675.

.675 is the "new .700."

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, when the league norm is .720, it's pretty close. BTW, I view SS as a much more impactful position than CF.

When the league norm was .740, then .675 looked god-awful. Now, most teams have 2-3 batters under .675.

.675 is the "new .700."

Top 20 qualified SS's all had OPS's above 675. The guys below:

Winn 3.5 fWAR (2nd best SS in the game)

Lopez 2.3 fWAR (top 5 SS)

Volpe 1.0 fWAR 

Lee 0.3 fWAR

Meidroth 1.3 fWAR

Ortiz 1.4 fWAR (top 5 SS)

With these comps, he'd probably be in the 1.5-2 fWAR range if he only hit 675 at SS. 

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Top 20 qualified SS's all had OPS's above 675. The guys below:

Winn 3.5 fWAR (2nd best SS in the game)

Lopez 2.3 fWAR (top 5 SS)

Volpe 1.0 fWAR 

Lee 0.3 fWAR

Meidroth 1.3 fWAR

Ortiz 1.4 fWAR (top 5 SS)

With these comps, he'd probably be in the 1.5-2 fWAR range if he only hit 675 at SS. 

.675 would certainly not be top or even middle tier, among SSs, but it might be enough to stick around FT.

The SS OPS in 2025 was .711. Ten teams had a SS OPS of .665 or lower. Over a quarter were below .650.

Of the 43 MLB SSs with 200+ PAs, 17 were below .675. More than half were under .700. If we're talking FT, let's raise the PA cutoff:

35 SSs with 350+ PAs: 15 below .700, 11 below .675 and 6 below .650.

31 SSs with 400+ PAs: 112 below .700, 9 below .675 and 5 below .650. That's nearly 1/3. I'm not sure all those 1/3 are great fielders.

8 SSs had 500+ PAs and were under .700. Six were below .675.

If he was the only sub .700 batter in the line-up, okay, but its hard to win with several.

[moonslav59]

Wong had hand surgery.

[moonslav59]

What if the Twins look to slash their budget? Could this work?

Trade: Hicks ($12M x 2,) Duran ($8M + 2 arbs,) Rafaela ($8M x 6,) Campbell ($7.5M x 8,) Wong  (3 arbs,) and prospects Holobetz, Clarke & Valera. 

for

Pablo Lopez (owed $21.8M x 3/ $18.4 AAV,) Byron Buxton ($15.1M x 4/ $14.3 AAV,) Joe Ryan (3 arbs) and Ryan Jeffries (last arb)

 

[Larry Cook]

Can free agent pitcher king stay healthy? He has tremendous stuff when he is healthy!!!