A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm totally with notin. The thought of paying Yoshida's salary to hit for some other team makes me nauseous.

I'd argue it's foolish to trade him now, even to another club willing to pay his whole contract. Now that he's finally healthy, maybe he can do what Story did last year -- show the Nation how good he can be and earn his money.

The main gripe on this forum is that Masataka Yoshida just isn't versatile enough to be a Boston Red Sox. But don't forget: Breslow left the '26 club a bat short in the middle of the order -- we all agreed on that all winter. And this Sox batting order just isn't versatile enough to be losing more bats...

I can see how it doesn't make sense to trade him now. We could at least wait until Casas or Romy are back and showing they are okay. That may not ever happen, but when it does, Masa cannot be demoted, so I'd rather risk losing DH depth than keeping Masa as a PH only bench piece.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes I wonder if just choosing surgery on day one would be the best result.

 

As of last week, Red Sox utility infielder Romy Gonzalez was experiencing shoulder troubles and received a platelet-rich plasma injection. He admitted that he would likely miss Opening Day, though he may end up missing significantly more time. Today, Sean McAdam of MassLive adds that Gonzalez will visit a shoulder specialist next week to see if he needs to undergo surgery. Gonzalez opined that surgery “is not a season-ender by any means, in my opinion,” though any longer absence for the lefty-mashing infielder will be a blow to the Red Sox’ lineup regardless.

The right-handed-hitting Gonzalez injured his shoulder at the end of 2025 and experienced renewed soreness in January while ramping up for Spring Training. iHe posted career-best offensive numbers in 2025, batting .305/.343/.483 with a 123 wRC+ in 341 plate appearances for the Sox. While his performance against right-handers was slightly below average (95 wRC+), he absolutely teed off on southpaws. In 143 PA with the platoon advantage, Gonzalez hit seven of his nine home runs and posted a 162 wRC+ that was tied for 12th-best among hitters with at least 100 PA against lefties. Obviously, the team will hope he avoids surgery, but with that kind of production, they’ll do what it takes to ensure Gonzalez comes back at full strength.

[notin]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I know how depth works.

Yes, I have seen examples where even good depth was not good enough, as recently as last year.

Yes, I saw Toro get way too many PAs, but we all knew we had poor 1B depth, last year, and needing Romy at 2B kept him from playing 1B, and we waited too long to get Nate Lowe.

Do people know how improving your weakest slot on the roster is often the best way to improve a team, and that you have to give to get? I'm assuming you know this.

 

 

Improving the weakest slot is “OFTEN THE BEST” way to improving the team?  I suppose if you like overly dramatically emphasized marginal upgrades.  I mean, the weakest roster spot of at least 25 MLB rosters belongs to the backup catcher - arguably, Boston is one of these teams.  How much will these teams really improve with a backup catcher upgrade?

The Sox biggest weakness is likely to be offense.  Who hits better?  Yoshida? Or Eaton?  Or Gasper? Heck, let’s include Romy vs RHP.

For now, Casas and Romy are out.  And no, you don’t need to clear places for them.  All these other players on the Sox - Monasterio, Gasper, Ziegler, Ward - can all stay on the 40 for now.  But they have to wait their turn because they’re simply not as good of a hitter as Yoshida…

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Improving the weakest slot is “OFTEN THE BEST” way to improving the team?  I suppose if you like overly dramatically emphasized marginal upgrades.  I mean, the weakest roster spot of at least 25 MLB rosters belongs to the backup catcher - arguably, Boston is one of these teams.  How much will these teams really improve with a backup catcher upgrade?

The Sox biggest weakness is likely to be offense.  Who hits better?  Yoshida? Or Eaton?  Or Gasper? Heck, let’s include Romy vs RHP.

For now, Casas and Romy are out.  And no, you don’t need to clear places for them.  All these other players on the Sox - Monasterio, Gasper, Ziegler, Ward - can all stay for now.  But they have to wait their turn because they’re simply not as good of a hitter as Yoshida…

I was talking about our weakest spots as winter began and my desire to upgrade by more than we did by trading from our logjam position.

I said we no longer have a big weak area, since we filled 1B (Contreras) 3B (Durbin) and SP (Suarez & Gray.) It is no longer practical to upgrade to a big bat, because we aren't getting KMarte and Paredes is not a big upgrade over Duran, and might not even be better.

I don't think we need Masa. We might, if one of our 3 OF'ers get hurt, but I'd still be okay with KC, Casas & Romy filling in.

The $4M saved is not earth-shattering. I'm not laying awake at night wondering how we can unload Masa for $4M added to our summer trading budget. It's really not a big deal, anymore. I just added my opinion to the conversation. 

I actually like Masa as a hitter and argued he might have an OPS close to Duran's in 2026, if given a long look. Like I said, maybe I'm higher on KC, Casas and Romy than you and others are. I've agreed that if an OF'er gets hurt, I could be eating crow. I think it's worth the risk to trade him, but waiting for Casas to show himself is probably worth it.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, UtahSox said:

OF he blocks KC, Eaton and MAYBE Ward. 

KC likely starts in the minors, Casas starts off on the IL, and Eaton and Ward are barely in the league.  We won't lose much if these guys aren't on the team.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida was hurt, last year, too, so yes, he blocks Casas.

Let's re-visit this in June.  Casas has to prove he is healthy and has to prove he can still hit.  I still like him, but there is no chance he is on the roster on OD.

KC starts in the minors.  Again, I haven't given up on him, but has also shown nothing.

If we released Eaton, he might pass through waivers.  Every team has someone like that.

I don't see how Yoshida blocks anyone.

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, notin said:

Trade Yoshida and outfield becomes thin enough

I agree with that.  If Yoshida is the last guy on the bench, over Eaton, the loss is marginal at worst.  If you need a starting caliber player, Yoshida is much better than Eaton, imo.

[JoeBrady]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

the weakest roster spot of at least 25 MLB rosters belongs to the backup catcher

I think that has to be taken in context.  The weakest spot is relative to your PAs or IPs.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Let's re-visit this in June.  Casas has to prove he is healthy and has to prove he can still hit.  I still like him, but there is no chance he is on the roster on OD.

KC starts in the minors.  Again, I haven't given up on him, but has also shown nothing.

If we released Eaton, he might pass through waivers.  Every team has someone like that.

I don't see how Yoshida blocks anyone.

I've agreed Casas and Romy start the season on the IL and there is no need or rush to trade Masa, now.

I don't see him "blocking" Eaton, either.

KC will begin the season in AAA, and he won't get the call, unless it's to play FT or near FT, so in that context, Masa is not blocking him, until (and if) he has proven himself to some extent, but then again, Masa kinda has to re-prove himself, too, and with Duran at FT DH, that will be hard.

To me, it's not so much about blocking KC & Casas-Romy, it's about having 4 FT OF'ers and using a bench slot for a DH only player who likely needs to be platooned.

Yes, we may not not have to do anything, even until June or the dealine.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sometimes I wonder if just choosing surgery on day one would be the best result.

 

As of last week, Red Sox utility infielder Romy Gonzalez was experiencing shoulder troubles and received a platelet-rich plasma injection. He admitted that he would likely miss Opening Day, though he may end up missing significantly more time. Today, Sean McAdam of MassLive adds that Gonzalez will visit a shoulder specialist next week to see if he needs to undergo surgery. Gonzalez opined that surgery “is not a season-ender by any means, in my opinion,” though any longer absence for the lefty-mashing infielder will be a blow to the Red Sox’ lineup regardless.

The right-handed-hitting Gonzalez injured his shoulder at the end of 2025 and experienced renewed soreness in January while ramping up for Spring Training. iHe posted career-best offensive numbers in 2025, batting .305/.343/.483 with a 123 wRC+ in 341 plate appearances for the Sox. While his performance against right-handers was slightly below average (95 wRC+), he absolutely teed off on southpaws. In 143 PA with the platoon advantage, Gonzalez hit seven of his nine home runs and posted a 162 wRC+ that was tied for 12th-best among hitters with at least 100 PA against lefties. Obviously, the team will hope he avoids surgery, but with that kind of production, they’ll do what it takes to ensure Gonzalez comes back at full strength.

i agree......he had trouble at the end of last season and still has problems but somehow it's going to magically go away in the next month or so? yeah, right. he's done for the year and probably half of next year.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i agree......he had trouble at the end of last season and still has problems but somehow it's going to magically go away in the next month or so? yeah, right. he's done for the year and probably half of next year.

After losing Refsnyder, this one hurts, more.

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, we may not not have to do anything, even until June or the dealine.

That summarizes it perfectly for me.  With Casas & Romy on the IL, and KC completely unproven, we'll be lucky to have visibility by June.  I see no reason to be in a hurry to make any decisions.

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i agree......he had trouble at the end of last season and still has problems but somehow it's going to magically go away in the next month or so? yeah, right. he's done for the year and probably half of next year.

I'm not sure of the long-term timing, but if we got Romy back by July, I'd be happy.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

That summarizes it perfectly for me.  With Casas & Romy on the IL, and KC completely unproven, we'll be lucky to have visibility by June.  I see no reason to be in a hurry to make any decisions.

We already have visibility. Fourth place. Sellers at the deadline. Maybe third if the Orioles underperform.

[notin]

50 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

We already have visibility. Fourth place. Sellers at the deadline. Maybe third if the Orioles underperform.

The Red Sox will not be a 90 win 4th place team.  And if by some freakish “first time ever in MLB” miracle they are, then credit to their division-mates.

The Orioles might be one season removed from a really good season.  But it’s not like 2025 was a hard luck year for them; the drop off was real and expected. And they’ve done very little to fix that team’s weaknesses…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That summarizes it perfectly for me.  With Casas & Romy on the IL, and KC completely unproven, we'll be lucky to have visibility by June.  I see no reason to be in a hurry to make any decisions.

Maybe a big WBC will get someone calling.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, notin said:

The Red Sox will not be a 90 win 4th place team.  And if by some freakish “first time ever in MLB” miracle they are, then credit to their division-mates.

The Orioles might be one season removed from a really good season.  But it’s not like 2025 was a hard luck year for them; the drop off was real and expected. And they’ve done very little to fix that team’s weaknesses…

People tend to focus on the additions teams make over the winter(s.)

The O's have lost a lot of talent, too.

Two years ago, the O's were looking at...

C Rutschman coming off 2 straight .800+ seasons. He has dropped off significantly, since then.

1B Mountcastle on the rise.

2B Holliday with oodles of promise.

SS Gunnar Henderson as one of MLB's top young stars.

3B Ramon Urias, who had a decent 2024 season

LF Cowser as another youngster on the rise.

CF Mullins as a solid vet

RF Santander about to have an .800+ season

DH O'Hearn as one of MLB's best DHs

Bench: Westburg, McCann, Hays & Mateo

Rotation: Burnes (2.92 in '24) Eflin (2.60) A Suarez (3.70), Grayson Rodrigues (3.86) Bradish (2.75) Kremer (4.10) and Cole Irvin (coming off a 3 year 4.16 ERA)

Kimbrel was their closer and they ended up having 4-5 RP'ers with an ERA under 3.30.

That was a better looking & promising team than this one is. Way better.

[moonslav59]

The projected Orioles 2026 team:

1. Henderson SS .787 in '25

2. T Ward LF ,792 (under .756 previous 2 seasons)

3. Rutschman C .673 

4. Alonso 1B .871 (.804 from '23-'24)

5. O'Neill RF .684 (.765 previous 3 seasons combined)

6. Basallo DH .558 as a 20 year old

7. Alexander 2B (Jackson Holliday on IL)

8. Cowser CF .655

9. Mayo 3B (Westburg on IL)

SP: Bradish, T Rogers, Baz, Bassitt, Eflin/Kremer

I'm just not getting all the O love. What am I missing?

[moonslav59]

While fangraphs is rather bullish on the O's and have them finishing about 1.4 fWAR below the Sox with their projections, they have Holliday (1.9)  and Westburg (2.7) as key pieces for 2026. Both will be on the IL for a significant time to start the season.

Fangraphs also has some sunny projections when compared to 2025 numbers:

6.0 Henderson 4.8 in '25 (Understandable jump)

4.0 Rutschman 1.2 (Why this huge leap?)

3.6 Alonso (3.6 in '25)

2.7 Westburg (1.9- starts year on IL)

2.7 T Ward (2.9 in '25)

2.2 Cowser (0.6- I could see this jump upwards)

1.9 Holliday (1.2- starts year on IL)

1.5 Basallo (-0.3)

1.3 O'Neill (-0.3 in '25)

1.5 Beavers, 1.0  (from 0.7 in '25) Alexander (starting 2B now) & 0.6 Mayo (0.2 in '25 and starting 3B now)

2.9 Bradish (1.1 in '25)

2.1 Rogers (3.3 in '25)

1.9 Bassitt (2.3)

1.8 Baz (2.0)

1.4 Eflin & 1.2 Kremer

1.1 Helsley (0.2 a big jump projected, here)

0.5 Kittredge (0.2 in '25)

A guess fangraphs likes the O's for some reason, but why this?

Rafaela: 3.8>3.2 (maybe)

Duran 3.9> 2.4 (absurd)

Story 3.0>2.3 (can see this)

Contreras 2.8>2.2 (nope)

Narvaez 2.7> 1.9 (sophomore slump?)

Abreu: 2.4> 2.4 (entering peak prime)

[Duran Is The Man]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

While fangraphs is rather bullish on the O's and have them finishing about 1.4 fWAR below the Sox with their projections, they have Holliday (1.9)  and Westburg (2.7) as key pieces for 2026. Both will be on the IL for a significant time to start the season.

Fangraphs also has some sunny projections when compared to 2025 numbers:

6.0 Henderson 4.8 in '25 (Understandable jump)

4.0 Rutschman 1.2 (Why this huge leap?)

3.6 Alonso (3.6 in '25)

2.7 Westburg (1.9- starts year on IL)

2.7 T Ward (2.9 in '25)

2.2 Cowser (0.6- I could see this jump upwards)

1.9 Holliday (1.2- starts year on IL)

1.5 Basallo (-0.3)

1.3 O'Neill (-0.3 in '25)

1.5 Beavers, 1.0  (from 0.7 in '25) Alexander (starting 2B now) & 0.6 Mayo (0.2 in '25 and starting 3B now)

2.9 Bradish (1.1 in '25)

2.1 Rogers (3.3 in '25)

1.9 Bassitt (2.3)

1.8 Baz (2.0)

1.4 Eflin & 1.2 Kremer

1.1 Helsley (0.2 a big jump projected, here)

0.5 Kittredge (0.2 in '25)

A guess fangraphs likes the O's for some reason, but why this?

Rafaela: 3.8>3.2 (maybe)

Duran 3.9> 2.4 (absurd)

Story 3.0>2.3 (can see this)

Contreras 2.8>2.2 (nope)

Narvaez 2.7> 1.9 (sophomore slump?)

Abreu: 2.4> 2.4 (entering peak prime)

damn. somebody at Fangraphs loves the O's and hates the SOx.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

damn. somebody at Fangraphs loves the O's and hates the SOx.

Next, the Yanks & Jays...

LOL

[mvp 78]

On 3/7/2026 at 7:29 PM, notin said:

Improving the weakest slot is “OFTEN THE BEST” way to improving the team?  I suppose if you like overly All these other players on the Sox - Monasterio, Gasper, Ziegler, Ward - can all stay on the 40 for now.  But they have to wait their turn because they’re simply not as good of a hitter as Yoshida…

We haven't seen those guys play in NPB parks and face weaker pitching though. Monasterio could be great in the WBC too! 

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

damn. somebody at Fangraphs loves the O's and hates the SOx.

With Adley, it's hard to figure out how he fell off. He's always been a lower exit velo guy who doesn't hit the ball hard. He had great results the first two seasons and was towards the top of the league in bb rate. The only change I can notice is that he really stopped mashing the 4 seamer. He went from having a 900 OPS in '22-'23 to 700 OPS the last two seasons. Per xWOBA and xSLG, it could just be bad luck? 

He looked like Johnny Bench his first season, but has really fallen off since then (including defense). 

[FredLynn]

22 hours ago, notin said:

The Red Sox will not be a 90 win 4th place team.  And if by some freakish “first time ever in MLB” miracle they are, then credit to their division-mates.

The Orioles might be one season removed from a really good season.  But it’s not like 2025 was a hard luck year for them; the drop off was real and expected. And they’ve done very little to fix that team’s weaknesses…

They could finish as high as third...but no playoffs. That might be OK with you. Its not OK with me.

[notin]

7 hours ago, FredLynn said:

They could finish as high as third...but no playoffs. That might be OK with you. Its not OK with me.

If they win 90, they’re in the postseason.  Book it…

[moonslav59]

On 3/7/2026 at 10:48 AM, notin said:

Yoshida isn’t “blocking” Casas, either.  First of all, Casas’ inability to perform mundane baseball tasks without sustaining a season-ending injury is what blocks Casas.  Second, if Casas is actually better than Yoshida, then Casas will start over him...

When will we know?

109 OPS+ in first 1206 PAs in MLB (ages 29-31)

117 OPS+ in first 952 PAs in MLB (ages 22-25)

[moonslav59]

MLB ST'ing OPS Leaders (12+ ABs)

2.167 Duran

1.942 Tyler Black

1.843 Jake Bauers

1.834 Bryson Stott

1.723 Yastrzemski

1.713 McLain

1.661 Brennen Davis

1.659 B Sullivan

1.600 Corey Julks

1.567 Dansby Swanson

1.563 Willson Contreras

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When will we know?

109 OPS+ in first 1206 PAs in MLB (ages 29-31)

117 OPS+ in first 952 PAs in MLB (ages 22-25)

Casas is a rare case. He’s not a suspect, but he is suspect.🤫

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Casas is a rare case. He’s not a suspect, but he is suspect.🤫

And Masa is not?

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And Masa is not?

Not at all. I think everyone knows what you’ll pretty much get out of Masa.