A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

The Brez FA pitcher signings:

$130M/5 Suarez

$38.5M/2 Giolito

$21.1M/1 Buehler

$18.3M/2 Sandoval

$10.8M/1 Chapman w $13.3M/1 extension w option

$10M/2 Hendriks

Extensions:

$170M/6 Crochet

$55M/6 Bello + option

This is over $450M total.

 

[jdc69]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sandoval recovery should be the last straw on these types of signings. We are up to something like Oh for ten, now. Sandoval, Hendriks, Paxton plus injury history guys like Buehler, Kluber, Richards...

Name one injury-prone guy we've signed in the last 10 years who put up one good season.

Stop this experiment!

After that many experiments go wrong, it's time to stop looking at the players that come and go, and time to start looking at the one constant, the coaches and managers.

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, jdc69 said:

After that many experiments go wrong, it's time to stop looking at the players that come and go, and time to start looking at the one constant, the coaches and managers.

We've changed coaches and GMs. Cora got a year off, too.

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com now has Sandoval and Crawford starting the season on the IL, along with Romy & Casas. They've been all over the map on Sandoval & Crawford.

Assuming they are right, and with the addition of Coulombe, is this the opening day 26?

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Coulombe, Moran, Watson, Kelly

Narvaez & Wong (Thaiss?)

Contreras, Mayer, Durbin, Story, IKF & Monasterio

Anthony, Rafaela, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida

 

[moonslav59]

Romy goes on 60 Day IL to make room for Coulombe.

[moonslav59]

14 Players added to the 40 since the end of the 2025 season:

Suarez, Gray, Oviedo, Bennett

Coulombe, Watson, Samaniego

Contreras, Durbin, IKF, Monasterio, Seigler, Gasper, Cheng

Some non 40 players added to the system:

Braiden Ward, Matt Thaiss, Ronny Hernandez, Luke Heyman, Gage Ziehl, Isaiah Jackson, Adonys Guzman, Nate Baez, Tayron Guerrero, TJ Sikkema, Alec Gamboa, Devin Sweet, Vinny Capra

 

[moonslav59]

With the Romy to the 60 Day IL news, losing Refsnyder looks more hurtful, despite the OF/DH logjam.

[moonslav59]

It looks like 5 players will be on the IL for opening day:

60 Day: Houck & Romy

10/15 Day: Crawford, Sandoval & Casas.

Other teams have several injuries, too, and some to more important players than ours, but we could sure use these guys healthy.

[moonslav59]

There is a report on MLBTR that the Sox have not explored an extension with Early.

[moonslav59]

2024-2025 SP'er fWAR leaders (300+ IP)

4. Crochet 10.4

11. Suarez 7.5

12. Gray 7.4

36. Bello 4.0 (only 30 pitchers had more IP and a higher FWAR)

[notin]

On 3/11/2026 at 7:41 AM, moonslav59 said:

 

Name one injury-prone guy we've signed in the last 10 years who put up one good season.

Stop this experiment!

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

Nathan Eovaldi

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, notin said:

Michael Wacha

Rich Hill

Nathan Eovaldi

I said "one good season."

Wacha started 23 games in '22 and missed time when we needed him most.

Rich Hill started 26 games with a 4.27 ERA.

Nate had one of 5 seasons with over 20 starts. It was a damn good one, but these three don't really change the narrative.

 

[moonslav59]

So, if Mayer does not work out, of this "knee soreness" turns into something long term, what's the plan?

Durbin at 2B and IKF/Monasterio at 3B

Does Eaton get a chance? (All 3 are RHBs.)

I doubt we move KC back to 2B.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

So, if Mayer does not work out, of this "knee soreness" turns into something long term, what's the plan?

Durbin at 2B and IKF/Monasterio at 3B

Does Eaton get a chance? (All 3 are RHBs.)

I doubt we move KC back to 2B.

NONE of the above.🤭

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

NONE of the above.🤭

How about giving us your opinion?

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about giving us your opinion?

Trade him…… Maybe for someone with less upside, but proven to stay on the field. Or a team looking to upgrade young talent for proven talent. Bryce Turang, CJ Abrams, Ezequiel Tovar, Masyn Winn, or Ketel Marte to name a few.  

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, if Mayer does not work out, of this "knee soreness" turns into something long term, what's the plan?

Durbin at 2B and IKF/Monasterio at 3B

Does Eaton get a chance? (All 3 are RHBs.)

I doubt we move KC back to 2B.

Pull the trigger on a Paredes trade. 

[notin]

On 3/14/2026 at 7:07 PM, moonslav59 said:

I said "one good season."

Wacha started 23 games in '22 and missed time when we needed him most.

Rich Hill started 26 games with a 4.27 ERA.

Nate had one of 5 seasons with over 20 starts. It was a damn good one, but these three don't really change the narrative.

 

Wacha lead that 2022 pitching staff in bWAR.

Hill was certainly worth the money the Sox paid him.

Eovaldi was as injury-prone as they get before he came to Boston.  He certainly had one outstanding season in 2021.

Sometimes signing injured or injury-prone pitchers doesn’t work out.  That is true. But then, the same thing can be said about healthy pitchers.  The difference with these contracts is the level of commitment.  How many Liam Hendriks and Wade Millers does it take to equate to one David Price?

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, notin said:

 How many Liam Hendriks and Wade Millers does it take to equate to one David Price?

How many to equal a Bello?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Pull the trigger on a Paredes trade. 

I've given up hope.

[Maxbialystock]

On 3/12/2026 at 1:34 PM, moonslav59 said:

We've changed coaches and GMs. Cora got a year off, too.

Managers and even coaches are hired to be fired, but it's the CBO who goes after and signs the talent/arms. In 2018 Cora showed what he could do with talent--simply the best season in Sox history.   When the Sox bombed in 2019, John Henry hired a bargain basement CBO to replace free spender (and successful) David Dombrowski.  

I think CBO Breslow is here to stay and I like his emphasis on pitching.  Last season and postseason he let go of Devers and Bregman, which the known universe has emphatically stated was sheer idiocy.  My view is that the Sox made the postseason mostly on the pitching.  Just go look at the scores in those winning streaks and also look at how little Devers and Bregman contributed to them.  

At the same time, I don't think he has ignored the position players although I think he could use a good righty bat (which Bregman was).  Anthony, Duran, Abreu, and Mayer are all lefty bats.  So is Yoshida who's hitting well in the MBC this month.  

 

 

[mvp 78]

I'm less concerned about the LHB/RHB issue that the Sox used to have. The concern that hasn't gone away for me is the k % that will still be pretty high for this group (especially if they reduce Masa's role). 

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm less concerned about the LHB/RHB issue that the Sox used to have. The concern that hasn't gone away for me is the k % that will still be pretty high for this group (especially if they reduce Masa's role). 

It is a concern. here were the K rates from 2025 (150+ PAs) Losing Bregman hurts in this area, too, but we lost some high end guys, too...

30 Mayer

28 Anthony

27 Story & Campbell

26 Refsynder

25 Narvaez

24 Duran, Abreu, Romy, DHam, Casas, Lowe

23 Devers

22.5 MLB Average

22 Wong

20 Rafaela

15 Toro

14 Bregman

12 Masa

Additions:

25 Contreras

23 Monasterio

17 IKF

10 Durbin

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs projected 2026 RP fWAR

2.3 Miller

2.1 Duran

1.9 Jax

1.9 C Smith

1.7 Chapman

1.7 Diaz

1.5 Abreu

1.4 Hader

1.3 Whitlock

23 teams don't have a closer with a higher projected FWAR than Whitlock.  Only Hader/Abreu have a higher projected fWAR as a #2.

Last year's FWAR leaders:

2.7 Cade Smith

2.6 Chapman

2.2 Whitlock

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm less concerned about the LHB/RHB issue that the Sox used to have. The concern that hasn't gone away for me is the k % that will still be pretty high for this group (especially if they reduce Masa's role). 

Sounds right.  They can start 7 position players v lefties:

• C-Narvaez
• 1B-Conteras
• 2B-Monasterio
• SS-Story
• 3B-IKF
• LF-
• CF-Ceddanne
• RF-RA (good splits)

I'm not at all concerned with having to start Duran & Abreu against lefties.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Sounds right.  They can start 7 position players v lefties:

• C-Narvaez
• 1B-Conteras
• 2B-Monasterio
• SS-Story
• 3B-IKF
• LF-
• CF-Ceddanne
• RF-RA (good splits)

I'm not at all concerned with having to start Duran & Abreu against lefties.

No love for RHB Durbin?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No love for RHB Durbin?

Very sad.  I knew I was missing someone, but tbh, when I originally was thinking this through, I had IKF on the bench.  I guess that against the really tough LHs, we could start IKF in the IF and Durbin at DH.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Very sad.  I knew I was missing someone, but tbh, when I originally was thinking this through, I had IKF on the bench.  I guess that against the really tough LHs, we could start IKF in the IF and Durbin at DH.

It's almost like we have too much RH'd hitting, now, except none are really great.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's almost like we have too much RH'd hitting, now, except none are really great.

"Great" can be an elusive, and expensive, goal.