A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

WDYM, Lebron James is already part of ownership and the team STINKS.

good point

[drewski6]

fine give the job to eddie guerrero morerro jr

[drewski6]

this team has receded like lebrons hairline.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sounds about right. Pitching has been very good. Defense has been very good.  We have 6 AAA hitters.  And only Duran is the surprise.  You heard Breslow.  Pitching and defense is our team.  This is a lesson in the failure of building a pitching and defense first team.  

I think there has to be some context to your point.

I was a Sox fans for over 3 decades of hitting, hitting, HITTING. Those teams from the 70's had awesome line-ups. The one with Hobson batting 9th jumps to mind. We often had a couple good pitchers or maybe one great one, but never a solid staff.

When we got Pedro, we still didn't win a ring until we added a top closer (Foulke) and another top pitcher (Schilling.) The next rings all had 2-3 excellent SP'ers and a great closer.

Yes, teams have won without very good to great pitching, but the Sox have not.

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think there has to be some context to your point.

I was a Sox fans for over 3 decades of hitting, hitting, HITTING. Those teams from the 70's had awesome line-ups. The one with Hobson batting 9th jumps to mind. We often had a couple good pitchers or maybe one great one, but never a solid staff.

When we got Pedro, we still didn't win a ring until we added a top closer (Foulke) and another top pitcher (Schilling.) The next rings all had 2-3 excellent SP'ers and a great closer.

Yes, teams have won without very good to great pitching, but the Sox have not.

In 2013 our co-aces, lackey and lester were both good , not great and in 2018 sale was great, but behind him the staff was very meh.  porcello was our #3.

[drewski6]

pitching helps but hitting is crucial.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

In 2013 our co-aces, lackey and lester were both good , not great and in 2018 sale was great, but behind him the staff was very meh.  porcello was our #3.

Price and Sale were both viewed as aces. Nate & ERod made up for any short-comings. Kimbrell was viewed as a top closer.

2013 was maybe the more questionable one. Uehara had perhaps the best closer season in Sox history. Lester was widely viewed as an ace from 2008 to 2011, but the 2012 season added some doubts. He pitched like an ace after 2013 for several seasons. While Lackey was not an ace, except for 2007 and 2015-16, we probably don't win without him. 

The point was that we needed more than one starter and a closer to get the rings.

Okay, maybe Bill Lee was decent enough behind Tiant, but our pen was not very good. Clemens had some decent support, at times.

I'm not saying we win every time we had 2-3 good to great SP'ers and a great closer, but looking at all the very nice offensive teams we had, we had no rings without 3+ very good to great pitchers.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

pitching helps but hitting is crucial.

Agreed. I think the 3 decades of the great Sox hitting teams falling short, got many Sox fans believing that pitching wins rings.

A healthy mix is always a good thing.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

So they are intentionally not giving him the surgery then. For what reason? 

Hoping it was minor, would self heal in a short time ,  could be played (hit) with, or incorrect medical assessment. 

Despite all his talent and potential he's been short on avail-ability

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Hoping it was minor, would self heal in a short time ,  could be played (hit) with, or incorrect medical assessment. 

Despite all his talent and potential he's been short on avail-ability

I'm not doctor, but if MVP is right about every other player with the same injury getting surgery, then this is a big mess. If ends up getting it later, heads should roll.

[moonslav59]

We haven't reached the halfway point of the season, but Rafaela has looked about as consistent as anyone could ever have hoped for with the bat. He dipped a little below .700 in late April and again in early May, but those sample sizes were a bit small. He's been over .725 since early May and between .760 and .810 from May 13th to today.

2023+2024 >>> 2025+2026

K%: 27.1%> 20.0%

BB%: 2.9%> 4.8%

OBP: .275> .306

SLG: .389> .421

[UtahSox]

Good pitching can always be added at trade deadline, good bats are next to never available. I genuinely loathe this team. But roster has zero exciting bats. Such a s***** roster composition. 

Sad thing is I’m in Boston to take my 2 boys (11,9)to their first rivalry series. Prices were still sky high, Glad to see JH and Co. are still getting top dollar for this trash team. 

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

26 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Good pitching can always be added at trade deadline, good bats are next to never available. I genuinely loathe this team. But roster has zero exciting bats. Such a s***** roster composition. 

Sad thing is I’m in Boston to take my 2 boys (11,9)to their first rivalry series. Prices were still sky high, Glad to see JH and Co. are still getting top dollar for this trash team. 

It's candy bar economics. Make the product smaller and charge the same price or more.

[mvp 78]

Sox are officially last place in the AL.

[notin]

6 hours ago, drewski6 said:

pitching helps but hitting is crucial.

Complete BS.   They’re both important.  The whole “this one team pitching/defense team can’t win so therefore no pitching defense team can” is just false.  Toronto last year proves its possible.

4 teams in MLB are in the top 5 in runs scored and fewest runs allowed - NYY, LAD, MIL and ATL.  Clearly the best teams.

If we look at the 5 top scoring teams not counting these 4 (WSN, PIT, MIN, BAL, CHC), theyre combined record is 197-202.   If we look at the top 5 run preventers (SD, CLE, SEA, DET, TEX) not counting these 4 (and Boston, since we want outside info), their combined record is 195-203.  Nearly identical.  Leaving in Boston and taking out Texas, the run preventers are 189-297.  Only slightly worse.

Pitching and defense make for less exciting televised baseball, but are just as critical for winning as hitting.  But the teams excelling this year are excelling at both.  And teams that excel at one tend to be mediocre…
 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox are officially last place in the AL.

Losing to COL gives us a good shot at worst in MLB before too long.

[JoeBrady]

On 6/24/2026 at 1:47 PM, drewski6 said:

Hitting > everything.

Run differential will predict what your record will be.  It doesn't matter how you get there.  Sort by Py W/L.  The top-10 almost always make the playoffs.  The bottom-10 very rarely play .500

[JoeBrady]

On 6/24/2026 at 1:50 PM, drewski6 said:

And only Duran is the surprise. 

Define 'surprise?

• Narvaez -163
• Story -204
• Anthony -184 (SSS)
• Duran -150

[JoeBrady]

On 6/24/2026 at 2:15 PM, mvp 78 said:

So they are intentionally not giving him the surgery then. For what reason? 

I have no idea what's happening with him, which is kind of my point.  None of us have a single clue.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

When we got Pedro, we still didn't win a ring until we added a top closer (Foulke) and another top pitcher (Schilling.) The next rings all had 2-3 excellent SP'ers and a great closer.

IMO, for the regular season, you need 5 good SPs, a closer, and at least a modicum of hitting.  But to succeed in the playoffs, you need 3 good SPs, and preferably one is an ace.

[JoeBrady]

23 hours ago, drewski6 said:

In 2013 our co-aces, lackey and lester were both good , not great and in 2018 sale was great, but behind him the staff was very meh.  porcello was our #3.

ERod, Price and Eovaldi were probably better than Porcello.

[JoeBrady]

22 hours ago, vegasbob said:

Hoping it was minor, would self heal in a short time ,  could be played (hit) with, or incorrect medical assessment. 

I think too many fans view medical calls as an extension of the FO.  If they don't like the FO, then the medical calls are some type of conspiracy.  A lot of medical calls might be coin flips.  I've had differing medical opinions on a couple of issues.  It didn't mean either one was right or wrong.

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Losing to COL gives us a good shot at worst in MLB before too long.

I said this in another thread.  Half kidding, but we're in a fun spot.  For 3-4 years, we weren't in position to buy or sell.  Now we three guys for certain to be sold, and if they don't revert or get injured, we should get some good value.  We can then play every questionable player like Mayer, Seigler, etc., without fear of losing.  And we can sit back on players that we like and tell teams, 'we have no intention of trading so-and-so (Contreras), but we will listen';

And since the draft is based on a lottery, we can still get lucky, even if we manage to stay out of #30.

Good times!

[Bellhorn04]

On 6/23/2026 at 4:54 PM, mvp 78 said:

Romy just got called up

to Worcester. 

The Chosen One has almost arrived.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I said this in another thread.  Half kidding, but we're in a fun spot.  For 3-4 years, we weren't in position to buy or sell.  Now we three guys for certain to be sold, and if they don't revert or get injured, we should get some good value.  We can then play every questionable player like Mayer, Seigler, etc., without fear of losing.  And we can sit back on players that we like and tell teams, 'we have no intention of trading so-and-so (Contreras), but we will listen';

And since the draft is based on a lottery, we can still get lucky, even if we manage to stay out of #30.

Good times!

I'd feel a little better if it didn't look like 2027 might be washed out.

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Define 'surprise?

• Narvaez -163
• Story -204
• Anthony -184 (SSS)
• Duran -150

Narvaez was bad in the second half of the year last year, and his extremely impressive breakout came in a season like age 26/27 that feels fluky especially because and was even more fluky by feel because he didnt end the year hot.

Story had missed 4 of the last 5 years entering this one.

Anthony was age 21.

These are not guys who you count on to be your primary offensive providers, or if you do, its not really fair to be like so unforeseen who coulda known when your offense stinks.

And its not a surprise. We were ranked a near bottom 10 offense going into this season and even Breslow said "we are going to win with pitching and defense!"

And we arent winning with pitching and defense.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Run differential will predict what your record will be.  It doesn't matter how you get there.  Sort by Py W/L.  The top-10 almost always make the playoffs.  The bottom-10 very rarely play .500

But there is a ton more year to year randomness with pitching and you can improve pitching as the year goes by and you can scrap together a pitching staff.  Also, you need to be rock solid in both pitching (starting) and pitching (relief) AND defense to have a good run differential that is driven by run prevention.

Frankly, its just easier and more consistent to improve your run differential by increasing your offense vs having to have lights out SP, RP, AND defense.  

[drewski6]

53 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

IMO, for the regular season, you need 5 good SPs, a closer, and at least a modicum of hitting.  But to succeed in the playoffs, you need 3 good SPs, and preferably one is an ace.

And you are wrong. Cuz we have good SP, good closer and a modicum of hitting and we stink.  You got the team you wanted.  Only a little hitting but a ton of pitching.  This is the team of Joe Bradys dreams.  And thats why you were still saying its early until like a week ago.

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

And you are wrong. Cuz we have good SP, good closer and a modicum of hitting and we stink.  You got the team you wanted.  Only a little hitting but a ton of pitching.  This is the team of Joe Bradys dreams.  And thats why you were still saying its early until like a week ago.

Again so you’re saying it NEVER works because it failed this one time?

Hint:  Don’t.  It’s easier to find a bottom 5 scoring team that made the WS than a bottom 5 run preventer that did.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd feel a little better if it didn't look like 2027 might be washed out.

Like us, or the league?  I doubt we see much of a work stoppage, if any.  The RS, well, they have a lot of variables.  But my guess on the payroll is about $210-215M, so we'll have $40M to spend before hit the first cap, and maybe $80M before we start seeing some pushback.