A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Janek....really?

I'm not that high on Janek (9.3), either, but BTV rates him at a higher value than all Sox catchers combined not named Narvaez.

2.0 Ronny Hernandez

1.4 G Rodriguez

1.1 L Heyman
1.0 Jo Garcia

0.7 Wong

1,6 Brannon and 1.4 Hickey (1B/DH)

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think Duran would benefit from a change of scenery. 

Many ex-Sox players do.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

thanks. i don't  know much about the Cubs. 

Janek, though....really? LOLOL....i know about that guy. he's in AA and makes Durbin look like Babe Ruth. he's currently hitting .135/.179/.216/.395

 

Yeah...lets swap one of our best trade assets (Chapman) for this f***ing loser. c'mon Moon.

Try to suggest one, and not Chapman for Judge.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Duran & Chapman for Jeferson Quero (ML ready Catcher with 5.5 yrs of control)

[moonslav59]

BTV says PHI is overpaying but accepts...

Duran, Gray, Mayer, Bello & Narvaez

for 

Aidan Miller, Painter and Ferrebus

 

[Old Red]

The Red Sox are doing the 2026 version of theLimbo Rock. How Low Can They Go? Lower now. Lower now. Lower now.

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV says PHI is overpaying but accepts...

Duran, Gray, Mayer, Bello & Narvaez

for 

Aidan Miller, Painter and Ferrebus

 

No!

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts Duran & Chapman for Jeferson Quero (ML ready Catcher with 5.5 yrs of control)

MH says NO.

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Try to suggest one, and not Chapman for Judge.

Just let Brez work his magic. I think no matter what happens it’s going to most likely be status quo, and he will be still looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road then making all these wild deals. Then he won’t have to replace all he deals.🤭

[Hugh2]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV says PHI is overpaying but accepts...

Duran, Gray, Mayer, Bello & Narvaez

for 

Aidan Miller, Painter and Ferrebus

 

I think BTV losses a lot of value around the trade deadline.  Someone like Chapman has very little trade value a surplus value of 3.5 But we know that someone like him is going to go for way over his "book value" for lack of a better term at the dealine.  

Whatever Chapman brings back, I suspect BTV could reject that trade at the moment. 

[Hugh2]

11 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i think Duran would benefit from a change of scenery. 

Idk, I feel like it could go either way with Duran.  I wouldn't be surprised if a trade really got in his head and he has a very hard time adjusting to a new home.  I would be equally unsurprised if he started playing at an elite level again. 

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Idk, I feel like it could go either way with Duran.  I wouldn't be surprised if a trade really got in his head and he has a very hard time adjusting to a new home.  I would be equally unsurprised if he started playing at an elite level again. 

Moneyball, but Brad Pitt is consulting BTV instead of Jonah Hill.

[notin]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV says PHI is overpaying but accepts...

Duran, Gray, Mayer, Bello & Narvaez

for 

Aidan Miller, Painter and Ferrebus

 

DD has been adamant about not trading Painter.  No such word on Miller.

And really the Phillies could use both Duran and Chapman.  I could see DD wanting Duran, since he drafted him and all. But oddly, I don’t think DD and Chapman have ever been part of the same organization before. Still Chapman is reportedly high on his list.

Assuming Painter is still untouchable, that doesn’t leave much in the Philly farm to deal away.  Miller should be untouchable ss the Heir Apparent once Alec Bohm is finally discarded.  

That leaves Aroon Escobar and Gage Wood.  Escobar is a bulky 2b (think like a 6’ tall Jose Altuve) that would likely just be stopping by in his way to being traded elsewhere.  Wood is a hard-throwing RHRP that is undersized and over-injured.  Also likely just stopping by until someone else gets intrigued.

This is all assuming Chapman isn’t headed to Chicago, where they have more prospects to choose from…

[notin]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Moneyball, but Brad Pitt is consulting BTV instead of Jonah Hill.

So you think it’s a good idea to take trade advice from Seth from Superbad?

[drewski6]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Position by position:

Catcher: Moderate to High Need area. While Narvaez still offers some hope, he should be viewed as the back-up. There is already talk of trading Wong. Gasper can be 40 man roster depth.

1B: Low Need area. Contreras is aging well, but for now, this is not a higher need area. Romy offers decent depth. Farm help seems far away.

SS/2B/3B: Two Highest Need areas. Maybe count Romy, Story, Durbin & Mayer as barely enough to fill one slot, but we certainly need two big adds here. I would not be against 2 major adds and making Durbin/Romy/Mayer bench pieces. (Trade Story with cash.)

LF: Low Need. Antony is going to be given every chance to win tis slot. (Trade Duran)

CF: Lowest Need. Ceddanne is the CF'er for years to come.

RF: Low Need. Abreu is the RF'er for 3 more arb years.

DH: High Need: Trade Masa and Duran.

Simplified everyday players:

1. SS (Decent bat/Big bat)

2. 2B/3B (Big bat/decent bat)

3. DH (Big bat)

4. C (Decent bat)

I think we have to run with starting pitching staff we have, as is. Crochet, Suarez, (Trade Gray) Tolle, Early and one from Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Bennett (Eyanson?)

We  need to add a closer and could use a key pen add or two. Counting on converted SP'ers never seems to work, as we end up needing all our Sp'er depth and then some. (Trade Chapman) __Closer__, Whitlock, _____, Slaten, _____, Moran & two from Bello, Weissert, Kelly, Watson, Samaniego, Uberstine, Bastardo, Holobetz, Wehunt, Paez

Final High Need List:

1. SS

2. Closer

3. 2B/3B

4. DH

5. Set-up RP

6. C

7 RP

From #1, 3, 4 and 6, we need two major bats or 1 major bat and 2 near major bats.

 

SS who can hit are not really available. And there arent a ton of 2b/3b who can hit either.  You have a quality bat way too low, which is why I do not like a position by position view.

Need 1:

A hitter as close to .900 OPS as possible, I care not where he plays (he can even play OF or be a DH)
Need 2: A second hitter as close to .900 OPS as possible, for this one, infield preferred but not necessary.

And yes, I move guys around defensively if I have to.  

When you say we want a SS who can hit and field...you cant get all of that so you start compromising on this hitting ability for positional fit.  I say compromise on ideal positional alignment before you compromise on hitting.
 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Just let Brez work his magic. I think no matter what happens it’s going to most likely be status quo, and he will be still looking for that 3rd option in the fork in the road then making all these wild deals. Then he won’t have to replace all he deals.🤭

Its not going to be the status quo, hes going to trade abreu, duran, and contreras for pitching and there will be much rejoicing.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, notin said:

So you think it’s a good idea to take trade advice from Seth from Superbad?

Better him than Craig.

[moonslav59]

57 minutes ago, notin said:

DD has been adamant about not trading Painter.  No such word on Miller.

I'm not sure trading for a pitcher (Painter was just demoted) is the best idea, either.

I heard Aiden Miller has a serious injury, so I say no.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

SS who can hit are not really available. And there arent a ton of 2b/3b who can hit either.  You have a quality bat way too low, which is why I do not like a position by position view.

Need 1:

A hitter as close to .900 OPS as possible, I care not where he plays (he can even play OF or be a DH)
Need 2: A second hitter as close to .900 OPS as possible, for this one, infield preferred but not necessary.

And yes, I move guys around defensively if I have to.  

When you say we want a SS who can hit and field...you cant get all of that so you start compromising on this hitting ability for positional fit.  I say compromise on ideal positional alignment before you compromise on hitting.
 

It is not making finding 2 big bats much more difficult by limiting the positions to 6 out of 9.

1B or DH

SS

2B or 3B

C

Add 2 big bats that are not OF'ers, but even there, we can trade Duran and DH ANthony and add a big OF bat, as well.

That makes it "any position"

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is not making finding 2 big bats much more difficult by limiting the positions to 6 out of 9.

1B or DH

SS

2B or 3B

C

Add 2 big bats that are not OF'ers, but even there, we can trade Duran and DH ANthony and add a big OF bat, as well.

That makes it "any position"

But the comment I was replying to , you had "SS" as top need, closer as second, adn 2b/3b as third.  I was saying that my top need is a great hitter (any position)

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But the comment I was replying to , you had "SS" as top need, closer as second, adn 2b/3b as third.  I was saying that my top need is a great hitter (any position)

We do need a SS. It is one position you don't just slap a poor defensive player there. That being said, we have all 9 positions we can add a big bat to. I'd avoid CF, but if we trade or sign one, we can move him to LF or RF, so big bat additions are not restricted to positions, under my view.

If we add 2 big bats anywhere but SS, I'd be okay with Mayer at SS. If we add a SS, we'd have Mayer at 3B or 2B, but we'd have Durbin, Romy and others to choose from. We don't have that choice at SS.

I'm just saying my preference for big bats is at SS and either 2B or 3B. I realize those two slots don't have a ton of .900 potential guys that are available, so we'd likely have to look at my next tier of preference: DH or C.

The last preferences are 1B (assuming no Willson trade) and OF, unless we trade Duran and move Anthony to DH.

I'm not limiting the addition of a .900 bat by any position- just offering preferences.

I actually agree with your point that the 2 big bats is the top priority- not positions.

I will add that your ",900" point makes it a near impossible ask for this coming winter. There are only 5 batters in MLB with a .900+ OPS from 2025-2026 combined, and which one is available?

600+ PAs

1.078 Judge

.999 Ohtani & Kurtz

.937 Soto

.925 Schwaber

Okay, assume you meant near .900 or someone with strong promise to be near .900...

.892 Buxton, .891 Rice, .890 Carroll, .882 Acuna, .881 Springer

There is a big drop to...

.867 Wood, .865 Olsen & Langeliers, .864 Yandy Diaz & Muncy, .862 Freeman & Raleigh

Drop the PAs to 300 to try and find promising players or players who got hurt...

.968 Yoran, .886 Stanton, .876 Canzone, .841 Colsen Montgomery

I'm not seeing many opportunities to find two big bats at your level of greatness.

 

[notin]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Better him than Craig.

So you prefer the decision-making ability of a guy who said “yes” to Get Him To The Greek?

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

So you prefer the decision-making ability of a guy who said “yes” to Get Him To The Greek?

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sale trade was unscripted.  Hill knows how his movies are going to end before he even starts berating craft services workers…

[Bellhorn04]

As a poster on SoSH put it:

"Trading Betts gave the Red Sox the payroll flexibility they needed to field this 2026 team."

 

[moonslav59]

Te Sale trade is a perfect example of a hindsight sucky trade.

I understand many hated or disliked it on day one, but it made some sense, when made.

One common view seems to be that when someone is trade, it means we gave up on them. That may not be true or only partially true. It may be more about liking the return more- for good or bad.

We obviously like Priester and Harrison enough to trade for them. Maybe after seeing them up close, we soured on them- maybe not.

Maybe we just liked the players we got back more, and that was the main reason. We got many of the "returns" wrong- like Grissom.

There was a time when the return of Harrison was viewed as horrible. Now, we rue the day we traded him. Go figure!

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

As a poster on SoSH put it:

"Trading Betts gave the Red Sox the payroll flexibility they needed to field this 2026 team."

Loving this!

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There was a time when the return of Harrison was viewed as horrible. Now, we rue the day we traded him. Go figure!

Harrison for Devers wasn't enough. Durbin for Harrison wasn't enough. Funny how both things can be true! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Harrison for Devers wasn't enough. Durbin for Harrison wasn't enough. Funny how both things can be true! 

If Harrison was still on the Sox AND pitching well (big if,) I'd be thrilled with the Devers trade. I was okay with it as just a salary dump only deal.

Durbin & Co. may yet outvalue Harrison. (I'm not predicting it, but we are less than 3 months into a trade of 5 year players.

[moonslav59]

Most of us realize BTV has some serious flaws, but I ask which of these groups of players are the most overvalued and undervalued?

Group A: 73 Rafaela, 66 Tolle, 54 Arias, 39 Suarez, 38 Mayer, 35 Abreu, 34 Early. (My choices: Mayer over/Abreu under)

Group B: 24 Eyanson, 23 Anthony, 18 Crochet, 17 Narvaez & Soto, 16 Duran (Duran over/Crochet under)

Group C: 15 Gonzales & Azocar, 14 Durbin, 12 Witherspoon, 11 Romy, 10 Valera (Durbin over/Azocar under)

Group notables: 9 Godbout, 8 Contreras, 4 Chapman, 3 Whitlock, 2 Wong, 0 IKF, Oviedo, Moraan, Watson (Wong over/Chapman under)

Group Negatives: -1 Casas, -2 Crawford, Houck & Gray, -5 Sandoval & KC, -22 Bello, -26 Yoshida, -39 Story (Casas & Sandoval over/Gray & Crawford under)