A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

If he has more RBI than it’s extremely likely it’s because he comes up with more runners on base in Baltimore than he does in Boston.  If so, who cares? It’s irrelevant to how he’d do here…

You guys are more worried about that than I am. Home runs will be more too.

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, notin said:

But he doesn’t have more and thats “here and now.”  Like I said earlier, apparently that only matters for Sox hitters.  

Not to mention as you have been shown, runners on base matter.  Contreras is driving in a higher percentage of baserunners than Alonso already, but for some reason you think that changes when fewer runners are on base.  Explain…

Give up. It's pointless.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless we’re talking about Durbin, Mayer, etc.   

Not that long ago, David Hamilton was doing “so much better” in Milwaukee than he was in Boston and thats because of Boston’s poorly run organization.  (Except Hamilton wasn’t doing any better and is now actually doing worse.). Last week it was Dustin May doing better.  Dumb deal, but also not really true. Now Blaze Jordan? Of all the Sox prospects dealt away, he’s not in my top 5 that I’d want back…

It's downright silly.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

Unless we’re talking about Durbin, Mayer, etc.   

Not that long ago, David Hamilton was doing “so much better” in Milwaukee than he was in Boston and thats because of Boston’s poorly run organization.  (Except Hamilton wasn’t doing any better and is now actually doing worse.). Last week it was Dustin May doing better.  Dumb deal, but also not really true. Now Blaze Jordan? Of all the Sox prospects dealt away, he’s not in my top 5 that I’d want back…

Did DUBin’s and Mayer’s first 31 AB count this year? Are they going to count the same if they have 500 AB? Like it, or not some fans analyze every single AB in every single game, and then form an opinion. You can do it another way whatever ever floats you boat, but I don’t care either way you do it.👋

[moonslav59]

Maybe the one bright spot of the Sox team, beyond Willson, is how well the SP'ers have done without Crochet (#1) Houck (Maybe #4-5) Crawford (Maybe #5-6) Sandoval (Maybe #6-7) and Oviedo (Maybe #8.) That's 5 of the top 8 SP'ers out. (One could argue Tolle & Early were top 8, but I think they would probably be behind these other had they been healthy.)

2.93 Suarez (.607 OPS Against)

2.93 Tolle (.615)

3.12 Gray (.709)

3.64 Early (.732)

(4.79 Bennett .695)

[FredLynn]

2 hours ago, notin said:

It’s a useless metric.   Teams like Miami and Tampa with virtually no revenue can spend a higher percentage of their revenue rather easily, but it doesn’t correspond to success.  Also that rank is from 2025.  23rd in revenue or not, they won 89 games and made the postseason.

Dumping Masa would have done nothing.  He wasn’t even an opening day starter.  Signing Alonso means benching one of Anthony, Duran, or Abreu.  Which one gets benched? (Cora being a huge proponent of Rafaela in CF meant it wasn’t going to be him.)

Like I said, no matter what you think of the metric it IS a useful tool to determine how cheap the owner is. Ours is the 23rd cheapest. It’s one reason why the team stinks and has sucked with some regularity for years.

[notin]

30 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Like I said, no matter what you think of the metric it IS a useful tool to determine how cheap the owner is. Ours is the 23rd cheapest. It’s one reason why the team stinks and has sucked with some regularity for years.

It’s really not.  But if your goal is to scream “cheap owner!!” I suppose it gives you the evidence you were going to keep looking for until the day you died.  So I get the convenience.  Of course then the whole idea that success is dependent on payroll is also flawed, and the even more comical fan cure about not attending games until they pay what you think they should is just an absolute fast track to destroying the team.

Teams should spend.  (I fully support the cap/floor model.) When it’s worth it.  Betts? Definitely! Soto? Would have been worth it! Alonso? Likely just dead money in 2 to 3 years.  Using long term free agency contracts to solve short term problems is a terrible idea that has burned the Sox many times already…

[FredLynn]

28 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s really not.  But if your goal is to scream “cheap owner!!” I suppose it gives you the evidence you were going to keep looking for until the day you died.  So I get the convenience.  Of course then the whole idea that success is dependent on payroll is also flawed, and the even more comical fan cure about not attending games until they pay what you think they should is just an absolute fast track to destroying the team.

Teams should spend.  (I fully support the cap/floor model.) When it’s worth it.  Betts? Definitely! Soto? Would have been worth it! Alonso? Likely just dead money in 2 to 3 years.  Using long term free agency contracts to solve short term problems is a terrible idea that has burned the Sox many times already…

Yes, it is a good metric to assess how cheap the ownership is. That’s just the way it is. You know, common sense! If an owner spends all the revenue he takes in on player salaries that demonstrates a strong commitment to winning. If an owner spends 10% of what he makes on player salaries that speaks to a LACK of commitment on his part and a strong commitment to pocketing as much money as possible. To write otherwise is simply demonstrating a lack of understanding of rational thought.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Like I said, no matter what you think of the metric it IS a useful tool to determine how cheap the owner is. Ours is the 23rd cheapest. It’s one reason why the team stinks and has sucked with some regularity for years.

It is a useful tool in a limited sense.

BTW, you do not know we are currently 23rd. 

I think we all agree, we can and should be spending more.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is a useful tool in a limited sense.

BTW, you do not know we are currently 23rd. 

I think we all agree, we can and should be spending more.

Exactly. It’s a measure of the commitment of the owners to prioritizing winning over profits. And I don’t have more recent data on the subject so I’m using what I have. Current data could be a higher or a lower percentage of revenue spent on salaries. The available data proves that Henry is more committed to making money than investing it in the team (which is his prerogative) while he lies about it to the fan base. That’s why the fans at a recent game were chanting “sell the team”. 
And he should. We deserve better.

[FredLynn]

This is from an article in Forbes dated Jan of this year. The data is from 2025 and this year.

”The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, though occupants of urban ballparks with small capacities, realized $574 and $584 million, respectively, but maintained payrolls of $242 million and $213 million, placing 23rd and 26th, respectively in the ratio of revenues versus expenditures.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danschlossberg/2026/01/11/study-shows-11-teams-spent-at-least-half-their-income-on-payroll/

Henry is still at #23. Cheap SOB.

SELL THE TEAM!

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Give up. It's pointless.

Giving advice from the Man Who Hides Behind The Curtain, and more times than not is on the wrong side of Memphis.🤫

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, notin said:

But he doesn’t have more and thats “here and now.”  Like I said earlier, apparently that only matters for Sox hitters.  

Not to mention as you have been shown, runners on base matter.  Contreras is driving in a higher percentage of baserunners than Alonso already, but for some reason you think that changes when fewer runners are on base.  Explain…

I know no one is counting, but Alonso hit his 18th today with 3 more RBI giving him 52.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Exactly. It’s a measure of the commitment of the owners to prioritizing winning over profits. And I don’t have more recent data on the subject so I’m using what I have. Current data could be a higher or a lower percentage of revenue spent on salaries. The available data proves that Henry is more committed to making money than investing it in the team (which is his prerogative) while he lies about it to the fan base. That’s why the fans at a recent game were chanting “sell the team”. 
And he should. We deserve better.

I'd venture to guess that over 90% of all teams prioritize profit over winning.

You should boycott all money-making sports.

[FredLynn]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd venture to guess that over 90% of all teams prioritize profit over winning.

You should boycott all money-making sports.

The Flops are by far the worst franchise in New England. I don’t think I’d mind the fact that Henry is a cheapskate if they were competitive in most years. They aren’t. They finish LAST with disgusting regularity. Look at the other New England franchises: the Patriots were in the Superbowl last year after one year of 3-13. The Bruins made the playoffs this year during a rebuilding year. The Celtics also made the playoffs and do so almost every year. Henry lies to the fans about prioritizing winning and is 23rd in revenue invested in player salaries. 
This franchise stinks and deserves to be booed at the games if not boycotted.

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

The Flops are by far the worst franchise in New England. I don’t think I’d mind the fact that Henry is a cheapskate if they were competitive in most years. They aren’t. They finish LAST with disgusting regularity. Look at the other New England franchises: the Patriots were in the Superbowl last year after one year of 3-13. The Bruins made the playoffs this year during a rebuilding year. The Celtics also made the playoffs and do so almost every year. Henry lies to the fans about prioritizing winning and is 23rd in revenue invested in player salaries. 
This franchise stinks and deserves to be booed at the games if not boycotted.

You are seriously using the Celtics make the playoffs more as a point? 20 out of 30 teams make it every year. Why not use the NHL?

Look, I agree JH should spend more and value money-making more than winning, but welcome to the real world. It's a business for every major sports team.

 

[FredLynn]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You are seriously using the Celtics make the playoffs more as a point? 20 out of 30 teams make it every year. Why not use the NHL?

Look, I agree JH should spend more and value money-making more than winning, but welcome to the real world. It's a business for every major sports team.

 

At the very least he shouldn’t lie to our faces about his priorities. The Celtics not only make the playoffs nearly every year but are almost always in serious contention for a ring. The Flops are almost always in contention for last place-lately. How many times in the past 7 years have they finished last? A: this year will make it four last place finishes in 7 years. Here you go:

 

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2026/06/19/red-sox-record-2026/

[oldtimer]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Yes, it is a good metric to assess how cheap the ownership is. That’s just the way it is. You know, common sense! If an owner spends all the revenue he takes in on player salaries that demonstrates a strong commitment to winning. If an owner spends 10% of what he makes on player salaries that speaks to a LACK of commitment on his part and a strong commitment to pocketing as much money as possible. To write otherwise is simply demonstrating a lack of understanding of rational thought.

Tampa has a max salary of 109 Mil and a 43-31 record

Boston has a max salary or 196 mil and a record of 31-44

Sure, owners should spend money but they should do it wisely. Breslow is supposedly an analytics savant and look where that has gotten us. Many of the fans on this site identified the problems prior to the season yet not enough was done to solve them. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I know no one is counting, but Alonso hit his 18th today with 3 more RBI giving him 52.

Yeah but it’s in Baltimore so it’s meaningless.  Can’t measure atmosphere, effort, etc…

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

At the very least he shouldn’t lie to our faces about his priorities. 

Sometimes I think they believe themselves, but clearly some years they knew damn well we would not be competitive.

[FredLynn]

1 hour ago, oldtimer said:

Tampa has a max salary of 109 Mil and a 43-31 record

Boston has a max salary or 196 mil and a record of 31-44

Sure, owners should spend money but they should do it wisely. Breslow is supposedly an analytics savant and look where that has gotten us. Many of the fans on this site identified the problems prior to the season yet not enough was done to solve them. 

Well of course! We not only need to spend a lot more money but we need to spend it wisely. That doesn’t mean nailing it every time but despite a few good moves BresLOW has sucked at his job. 
He’ll be gone after the season is over 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Giving advice from the Man Who Hides Behind The Curtain, and more times than not is on the wrong side of Memphis.🤫

It might be time to change your name to Senile Red…

[notin]

13 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Well of course! We not only need to spend a lot more money but we need to spend it wisely. That doesn’t mean nailing it every time but despite a few good moves BresLOW has sucked at his job. 
He’ll be gone after the season is over 

Doubtful Breslow gets fired and if he does, the position likely stays internal with some Sam Kennedy underling, which is NOT better.

Has Breslow really spent unwisely?  The extension contracts to Campbell and Bello aren’t really that crazy.  Not working out yet, but there’s time on both.  Rafaela’s didn’t look great right away either.  And the real worst contracts on the MLB roster (Story and Yoshida) were inherited.  

He did go too young with the lineup and ignored the bullpen…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Well of course! We not only need to spend a lot more money but we need to spend it wisely. That doesn’t mean nailing it every time but despite a few good moves BresLOW has sucked at his job. 
He’ll be gone after the season is over 

There has been increased spending- just not on big bats.

The Suarez, Gray and Contreras adds were the biggest spending this winter, and all have done well on paper. The next biggest spending in the last 2 years was Crochet, and he's done nada in 2026.

When you put 3 of your top 4 eggs into the rotation, you are kinda betting on them all staying healthy and making up for the lack of focus on hitting.

I think Brez & Co fell into the trap of taking for granted the foundation of everyday players was solid enough, deep enough and at the age where improvement usually takes place.

On paper, the loss of Bregman and gain of Contreras looks close to a push, but just about everyone not named Rafaela has gotten worse or injured. I'm not sure signing even Schwarber over Suarez would have made a big difference, and I'm not sure he'd have signed with BOS, even if we offered a couple $M more.

[Old Red]

After 75 games the Boston RedWOO Sox are slogging along with 31-44 record in a weak watered down league. Only 5 games back from a wildcard berth, and the RW Sox would only have to climb over 7 teams to get there. On the bright side the boys in Red will only have to go 50-37 the rest of the way to stop from being called a losing team, and remember there’s no place like home, there’s no place like home where the Boys of summer are sporting a 12-25 record at the not so friendly Fenway. AWESOME!👏

[cp176]

Gray, Contreas(sp), Suarez, were not bad signings.   Signing more 4444 players when basically that is what you have in your system was ridiculous.  Relying on metrics, trying to sign players that seem to fit in a specific ballplark as opposed to trying to sign good baseball players in general doesn’t seem  too bright to me.  With respect to Breslow, Kennedy, etc., I would have to say “are you stupid or are you just uncoachable.?”  Stubbornness and the constant ridiculous optimism that they throw our way makes me think that they are uncoachable which is far worse than stupid.