A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

By the time the deadline arrives, we'll be sellers not buyers.

That's why Brez has to move now.  He doesn't seem like a "sit on your hands" type.  And this is Year 3 of his 4 year window LOL.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

We don’t need a first baseman…😉

I'd start him at 3rd and not think twice.  But first you need to convince Posey to take back Masa, take a decent, non-premium prospect, and eat another ~ $60-70M.  No GM ever likes to look that bad, that soon.

Keep in mind, Devers is starting to hit.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Nah, we need a righty bat. 😉

Re-visit Paredes.  He's not doing anything special, so the ask might only be a decent+ prospect, which is fair.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Some cherry-picked SP'er sample sizes:

ERA/FIP

0.00/1.44 Suarez last 2 starts (12 IP) 1.17/2.45 last 5 starts (30.2 IP)

0.82/3.65 Gray last 2 starts (11 IP)

1.35/1.76 Bello last 2 games (13.1 IP) 1.32/3.47 last 3 starts (13.2 IP)

2.25/2.69 Tolle last 2 starts (12 IP) & 2.78/2.80 season (4GS and 22.2 IP)

3.16/4.35 Early for the season (8GS 42.2 IP) last start 0.00 ERA over 7 IP

Aside from Crochet and Bello, the rotation has held up.

Suarez 2.77 ERA

Tolle 2.78 ERA

Early 3.16 ERA

Gray 3.18 ERA

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's why Brez has to move now.  He doesn't seem like a "sit on your hands" type.  And this is Year 3 of his 4 year window LOL.

He did sign a 5 year contract. Maybe he sees that elusive 5th season!

🐶🐶

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Re-visit Paredes.  He's not doing anything special, so the ask might only be a decent+ prospect, which is fair.

The talk here in HOU is "fire sale."

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Aside from Crochet and Bello, the rotation has held up.

Suarez 2.77 ERA

Tolle 2.78 ERA

Early 3.16 ERA

Gray 3.18 ERA

Yup, and Bello's recent two games is a little encouraging.

Bennett looked okay, which helps, since Oviedo, Crawford and Sandoval are all pretty much crossed off my 2026 help list.

Getting back a healthy and strong Crochet could give a big boost and also help the pen out (no more pen games.)

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Bello's recent two games is a little encouraging.

Bennett looked okay, which helps, since Oviedo, Crawford and Sandoval are all pretty much crossed off my 2026 help list.

Getting back a healthy and strong Crochet could give a big boost and also help the pen out (no more pen games.)

Going back to ST, Crochet had been off. Not sure if it was the increase in IP last season, an injury or something else. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The talk here in HOU is "fire sale."

Then go hard after Yordan Alvarez. If he's even remotely available, there's no one else in baseball like him to help solve what ails Boston.

Keep our own A's: Anthony, Abreu, Arias -- not to be unreasonable, but because Red Sox position players throughout the system are either not that good or at least overrated in New England.

Houston needs pitching to reboot, and that's Boston's strength. Come on, Brez -- you drafted 89 D1 arms for this moment.

[urban cowboy]

23 hours ago, drewski6 said:

After last year, plenty.  THere was opt out buzz.

yep! but always difficult to "sell high" -- maybe they have turned the corner and this is real?

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But why do we need to eat now when we'll just be hungry later? Who needs to wear clean clothes when they're just going to get dirty? What's the sense in combing my hair when someday it's all going to fall out.

that's what i tell me wife when she says i need to clean my jeep: "why? it's just going to get dirty again."

[Old Red]

49 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Going back to ST, Crochet had been off. Not sure if it was the increase in IP last season, an injury or something else. 

I said back in the offseason it would be something to watch on Cro Man to see if his first heavy workload last year would have any effect on him this year, so it could be that, or a combination of things.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Then go hard after Yordan Alvarez. If he's even remotely available, there's no one else in baseball like him to help solve what ails Boston.

Keep our own A's: Anthony, Abreu, Arias -- not to be unreasonable, but because Red Sox position players throughout the system are either not that good or at least overrated in New England.

Houston needs pitching to reboot, and that's Boston's strength. Come on, Brez -- you drafted 89 D1 arms for this moment.

The talk about Alvarez is that a trade would be Juan Soto like in terms of the return. 

[mvp 78]

45 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

that's what i tell me wife when she says i need to clean my jeep: "why? it's just going to get dirty again."

🦆

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Going back to ST, Crochet had been off. Not sure if it was the increase in IP last season, an injury or something else. 

Agreed. I even mentioned he might end up on the IL a week or so before he did.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Then go hard after Yordan Alvarez. If he's even remotely available, there's no one else in baseball like him to help solve what ails Boston.

Keep our own A's: Anthony, Abreu, Arias -- not to be unreasonable, but because Red Sox position players throughout the system are either not that good or at least overrated in New England.

Houston needs pitching to reboot, and that's Boston's strength. Come on, Brez -- you drafted 89 D1 arms for this moment.

Yordan is the guy most talked about, but the feeling seems to be more about building around him, which would mean the expectation is a short rebuild or a Yordan extension.

HOU really likes Abreu, so he'd likely be the first guy they ask for.

Paredes is the most likely guy we get, especially if it happens, this year.

IMO, I think we are not going to be buyers, this summer, and talk of trades now is a long shot. Now, Devers was traded way before the deadline, but those deal types are unique.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd start him at 3rd and not think twice.  But first you need to convince Posey to take back Masa, take a decent, non-premium prospect, and eat another ~ $60-70M.  No GM ever likes to look that bad, that soon.

Keep in mind, Devers is starting to hit.

Breslow wouldnt take him if he was free.  Once you cross the dictator, theres no coming back.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Then go hard after Yordan Alvarez. If he's even remotely available, there's no one else in baseball like him to help solve what ails Boston.

Keep our own A's: Anthony, Abreu, Arias -- not to be unreasonable, but because Red Sox position players throughout the system are either not that good or at least overrated in New England.

Houston needs pitching to reboot, and that's Boston's strength. Come on, Brez -- you drafted 89 D1 arms for this moment.

A+ suggestion! 👍

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yup, and Bello's recent two games is a little encouraging.

Bennett looked okay, which helps, since Oviedo, Crawford and Sandoval are all pretty much crossed off my 2026 help list.

Getting back a healthy and strong Crochet could give a big boost and also help the pen out (no more pen games.)

Paredes + a good 7th inning guy, plus Crochet of course, and I just see no way that aren't an excellent team.

[drewski6]

RS perspective:

Lets get hitting before the deadline? Answer: Cant do it, nobody is giving up their bats yet, its too early, would have to really really overpay

Lets ditch hitting before the deadline? Answer: Cant do it, nobody looking to add tlaent/payroll right now.  Wont get any value.  The market is theirs.

Lets trade hitting for pitching? ANswer: Cant do it, pitching is at a premium.  Arms win championships , nobody is giving you stud pitching, youll have to way overpay

Lets trade pitching for hitting? Answer: Cant do it, nobody is going to give you a stud that helps you win every day for someone who only takes the ball one out of 5 days

Never seems to be a red sox market.  OR maybe these are just excuses for a team thats last place 4 of the last 7 years

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Then go hard after Yordan Alvarez. If he's even remotely available, there's no one else in baseball like him to help solve what ails Boston.

Keep our own A's: Anthony, Abreu, Arias -- not to be unreasonable, but because Red Sox position players throughout the system are either not that good or at least overrated in New England.

Houston needs pitching to reboot, and that's Boston's strength. Come on, Brez -- you drafted 89 D1 arms for this moment.

Don't get me wrong, I think Yordie is this generations Papi.  But Paredes might be just as important to us at 1/3 the price.  But I'm interested in hearing what fans would be willing to trade.

[drewski6]

Does somebody have a #6 starter that just fell out of their rotation and they are looking to cut like D May?  Cuz then maybe if we offer a promising prospect for that pitcher and we tell the rival GM's exec assistant we are willing to give up actual talent for someone they were going to cut anyway.....Then maybe we can get put through to thir GM. ANd can evolve the convo/bait and switch from there.

Other than that, nobody is taking Breslows calls.  Gotta incentivize them jsut to pick up the phone.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The talk about Alvarez is that a trade would be Juan Soto like in terms of the return. 

Therein lies the problem.  We no longer carry that type of weight.  The opening bid has to start with Arias + Tolle.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Therein lies the problem.  We no longer carry that type of weight.  The opening bid has to start with Arias + Tolle.

For a 28 y/o DH who is under contract for 3 seasons @ 19M (one season that is already over). It's a BIG price tag. For Soto, it was a guy that was younger and played on the grass. 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Don't get me wrong, I think Yordie is this generations Papi.  But Paredes might be just as important to us at 1/3 the price.  But I'm interested in hearing what fans would be willing to trade.

I was actually thinking the same thing the other day. Yordan is the closest thing to Papi as anybody else.

I'd love to get him. The cost will be high, but HOU might be okay with mostly prospects. (I think they'd demand Abreu and Arias- maybe Tolle or Early, too.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Does somebody have a #6 starter that just fell out of their rotation and they are looking to cut like D May?  Cuz then maybe if we offer a promising prospect for that pitcher and we tell the rival GM's exec assistant we are willing to give up actual talent for someone they were going to cut anyway.....Then maybe we can get put through to thir GM. ANd can evolve the convo/bait and switch from there.

Other than that, nobody is taking Breslows calls.  Gotta incentivize them jsut to pick up the phone.

I get your point, but I'm not sure anyone made more winter trades than Brez, so somebody was answering phones.

[JoeBrady]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For a 28 y/o DH who is under contract for 3 seasons @ 19M (one season that is already over). It's a BIG price tag. For Soto, it was a guy that was younger and played on the grass. 

Soto got the Nats 3 top-10 types plus a guy currently ranked in the 50-60 range.  Arias might be a #20-30 type, an Tolle probably top 10-15.

I only mention this because, occasionally, a name like Neto will pop up, even though there might be a -0- chance of him getting traded.  And a month later, fans will be complaining that we didn't trade for him, notwithstanding the fact that we never reasonably had the resources to acquire him.

I figured I'd get that out of the way early this time.

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I get your point, but I'm not sure anyone made more winter trades than Brez, so somebody was answering phones.

It was a great theory, except for the fact that Breslow was the busiest GM in RS history.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For a 28 y/o DH who is under contract for 3 seasons @ 19M (one season that is already over). It's a BIG price tag. For Soto, it was a guy that was younger and played on the grass. 

I never played on grass, but had a beer sometimes in between games of a hot doubleheader.

But I've been sober all day, and would give up a package of just about any Red Sox for Yordan. He could be one of the few gamechangers in his absolute prime that puts this group back into contention. 

Paredes or another guy like him just won't be enough to save this offense. If you don't want to waste what may be the last Crochet-Chapman year, gotta go big.

For the current and future core, I have to keep Abreu, Anthony and Arias; sorry, the infield is just too unstable going forward -- maybe only Mayer is a key guy going forward.

Otherwise, how would Houston feel about this trio for Alvarez: Eyanson, their choice of Tolle or Early, and Justin Gonzales? They'd get this year's breakout minor league pitcher, another MLB rookie starter, and a future Yordan who just made the Top 100 Prospects list...

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Otherwise, how would Houston feel about this trio for Alvarez: Eyanson, their choice of Tolle or Early, and Justin Gonzales? They'd get this year's breakout minor league pitcher, another MLB rookie starter, and a future Yordan who just made the Top 100 Prospects list...

If HOU is looking for a quick rebuild, they may want more immediate value, but that looks like a formidable starting offer.

Pena will be a FA, soon, so maybe they'd want Mayer or Arias.

I know they really like Abreu, but I think he only adds one more year of control to what Yordan has, so maybe that's not a big demand.

I'm sure they'd start with Anthony and Tolle/Early and Mayer/Arias, but I think they'd take less.

I'm thinking more about Paredes and what they may take, now vs their winter demands...

Durbin, Witherspoon and Bennett?