A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Runs and total bases are not 'old' stats.  Even HRs still count, though not as relevant as OBP.  The correlation between OBP and runs scored is very high.

Runs, HR, and RBI shows up on the scoreboard in real time, and counts towards a W-L. OBP doesn’t always lead to a run as the Red Sox prove time, and time again.

[Old Red]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

6 years, but Bogaerts could (and did) opt out after three years.  Still very lucrative for us.  I'd like to see the RS engage in more contracts where we grant an opt-out, but retain an option to buy out the players' option.  So if Bogaerts declines the final $60M/3, we have the option of replacing that with say, a $100M/3 contract.

Disagree on opt outs. Lucrative for the Red Sox on Bogey? Bogey’s three years would have been up, and no Story would have been signed who is a big problem with almost 2 more years left on his contract. JD held the REd Sox hostage for a few years on will he, or won’t he opt out.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Runs, HR, and RBI shows up on the scoreboard in real time, and counts towards a W-L. OBP doesn’t always lead to a run as the Red Sox prove time, and time again.

Higher OBP leads to higher scoring,  Take a look at the ten highest OBP teams from almost any year, and they will mostly the highest scoring teams.  More HRs will lead to more scoring, but there are always team with a lot of HRs that are not atop the scoring board.  I will provide some analysis later,

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, notin said:

The longer they wait, the pricier they get.  Sure they may never recoup an ROI on Campbell, but his AAV is utility infielder money.  Not exactly risky…

is it average money for a AAA outfielder? because that's exactly what he is.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Higher OBP leads to higher scoring,  Take a look at the ten highest OBP teams from almost any year, and they will mostly the highest scoring teams.  More HRs will lead to more scoring, but there are always team with a lot of HRs that are not atop the scoring board.  I will provide some analysis later,

Why do the Red Sox have the present record they have more than anything else? 27th in runs scored, 28 in HR, and 29th in total bases per game. How has OBP, and higher scoring worked for the Red Sox this year? Which tells a better story that correlates to their record. Higher OBP doesn’t always lead to higher scoring. The Red Sox have over 7 runners left on base this year per game. An higher OBP would probably just leave more runners on base as bad as the Red Sox are at it.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's look at some players, now:

Early

Tolle

It IS "completely unnecessary" to extend these guys, but waiting risks the price gettin so high JH won't approve an extension or re-sign later...

That's the reasoning behind it- right or wrong.

we just see it different. i'm not against paying them; i just want to see them do something worth paying for rather than paying them for nothing.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

is it average money for a AAA outfielder? because that's exactly what he is.

Most post-arb starting outfielders make at least a $7.5mill AAV…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This regime doesn't mind long extensions for youngsters -- and it really isn't about not having to pay true market value for a star in his prime... because that really hasn't happened, has it? 

(If someone can think of an example of a Red Sox rookie or second-year man signing longterm and then reaching an age where his status made him a ridiculous bargain, please chime in. I'm not talking Pedro, who was a Cy Young when he got to Boston, or Papi, who kept agreeing to team-friendly contracts... but young guys).

The reason is the same reason that caused Bregman to walk: No No-Trade clauses... because as soon as Henry tires of paying someone what he offered, he dumps him.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Why do the Red Sox have the present record they have more than anything else? 27th in runs scored, 28 in HR, and 29th in total bases per game. How has OBP, and higher scoring worked for the Red Sox this year? Which tells a better story that correlates to their record. Higher OBP doesn’t always lead to higher scoring. The Red Sox have over 7 runners left on base this year per game. An higher OBP would probably just leave more runners on base as bad as the Red Sox are at it.

The Sox are 23rd in OBP and 27th in runs scored.  It’s a pretty solid relationship.   It’s not like they’re 10th in OBP here.

Now, Milwaukee is last in MLB in home runs and 8th in scoring.  Tough to say that’s an established link.  But there 7th in OBP…

[Duran Is The Man]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Most post-arb starting outfielders make at least a $7.5mill AAV…

in AAA??? 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This regime doesn't mind long extensions for youngsters -- and it really isn't about not having to pay true market value for a star in his prime... because that really hasn't happened, has it? 

(If someone can think of an example of a Red Sox rookie or second-year man signing longterm and then reaching an age where his status made him a ridiculous bargain, please chime in. I'm not talking Pedro, who was a Cy Young when he got to Boston, or Papi, who kept agreeing to team-friendly contracts... but young guys).

The reason is the same reason that caused Bregman to walk: No No-Trade clauses... because as soon as Henry tires of paying someone what he offered, he dumps him.

They only started extending players a couple years ago.  Has there been any time for an established star? 
 

Might as well argue that MLB is so much weaker today because 50 years ago, there were 60 Hall of Famers playing.  Today?  Not a single one!

[notin]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

in AAA??? 

The point is the Sox risked paying like an MLB regular/bench player, as opposed to waiting until he became a star (if ever) and paying him like one.   They took a risk.  It didn’t pay off, still might, but they’re better off whiffing on 7 year $50mill contracts than 7 year $217mill ones.  Right?

[Duran Is The Man]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

The point is the Sox risked paying like an MLB regular/bench player, as opposed to waiting until he became a star (if ever) and paying him like one.   They took a risk.  It didn’t pay off, still might, but they’re better off whiffing on 7 year $50mill contracts than 7 year $217mill ones.  Right?

i never mentiond any $217M contracts, i just think it's f***ing insane to be paying a starting AAA outfielder $7M a year because he *might* one day be good enough to get $30M a year. this contract, like Bello's, looks stupid as hell. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i never mentiond any $217M contracts, i just think it's f***ing insane to be paying a starting AAA outfielder $7M a year because he *might* one day be good enough to get $30M a year. this contract, like Bello's, looks stupid as hell. 

Kind of see most teams doing it.  Sometimes it works out.  Sometimes it doesn’t.  Campbell is hardly the first.  Eloy Jimenez for example. David Fletcher as well.  Colt Keith isn’t exactly thumping.  And the jury is still out on Konnor Griffin, Cooper Pratt, Colt Emerson, etc.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Disagree on opt outs. Lucrative for the Red Sox on Bogey?

Disagree with us giving him the opt outs?  There is a good chance Bogaerts leaves without us even getting those first three years.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

An higher OBP would probably just leave more runners on base as bad as the Red Sox are at it.

The more LOBs you have, the more runs you've scored,  After you've processed that, we'll move onto scoring 102.

[JoeBrady]

47 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i never mentiond any $217M contracts,

No, but that is the only alternative.  You can sign them cheap, before they've proven themselves, or you can sign them for a lot more money, after they have proven themselves.  But you have to choose a lane.

[Old Red]

43 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Disagree with us giving him the opt outs?  There is a good chance Bogaerts leaves without us even getting those first three years.

That may be, but I always said they should have offered more per year with no opt outs.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I know I've posted this before, and I know how bad Mayer has been against lefties, but I don't think he should be platooned. 

In the tiny sample size he faced LHPs, this year (8 PAs) he has an OPS over 1.100.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

in AAA??? 

KC would not have been arb eligible for a few more years, so ask again, later.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

In the tiny sample size he faced LHPs, this year (8 PAs) he has an OPS over 1.100.

3-8 1 HR, and 4 RBI. I know that high OPS sounds better, but I like things broken down myself.

[Old Red]

42 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The more LOBs you have, the more runs you've scored,  After you've processed that, we'll move onto scoring 102.

Thanks, but you could leave the bases loaded every inning, and not score. You could hit a HR every inning, and score at least 1 run an inning. Even I can understand that.

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The more LOBs you have, the more runs you've scored,  After you've processed that, we'll move onto scoring 102.

This makes me shake my head:

BA/OBP/SLG/OPS

.235/314/.353/.667 Overall

.240/319/.356/.675 Men on Base

.245/.329/.369/.698 RISP

While all these numbers suck, it surprises me they do better when men ar on base & in scoring position. (Slightly. It was better a couple weeks ago.)