A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

Hope you're all holding onto your hats. 

[mvp 78]

Tsung Che Chang:

12/19/25 DFA'd by PIT

1/12/26 DFA'd by TBR

1/21/26 DFA'd by NYM

1/30/26 DFA'd by WSH

He is speedrunning being acquired by every team. 

[mvp 78]

At least he's figured out AAA pitching.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why did he try to become Mr Workout in 2019 then? 

The ladies?

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hope you're all holding onto your hats. 

Did Tolle play 2b in high school? Cuz I have an idea.....that you're probably gonna hate

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Did Tolle play 2b in high school? Cuz I have an idea.....that you're probably gonna hate

Send Tolle back to High School to learn 2b? 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Send Tolle back to High School to learn 2b? 

We do need a 14th non MLB caliber second baseman, im thinking

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im okay parking Masa in AAA if we can, Im not okay giving him away to whomever will take the most salary.

You and I might be okay with Masa in AAA, but it's up to Masa. He can refuse an option to the minors.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Did Tolle play 2b in high school? Cuz I have an idea.....that you're probably gonna hate

Tolle ate second basemen in high school.

[notin]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Did Tolle play 2b in high school? Cuz I have an idea.....that you're probably gonna hate

No, but he got to second base with a cheerleader.  Close enough?

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

You and I might be okay with Masa in AAA, but it's up to Masa. He can refuse an option to the minors.

Can he?  He lacks both criteria that enable a player to refuse assignment - 5 years service time or a previous assignment.  I don’t think lead years “injury rehab” counts.

Now he may have language in his contract that prohibits assignment to the minors,..

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Can he?  He lacks both criteria that enable a player to refuse assignment - 5 years service time or a previous assignment.  I don’t think lead years “injury rehab” counts.

Now he may have language in his contract that prohibits assignment to the minors,..

I think MVP found something that states he can refuse a demotion.

[notin]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I think MVP found something that states he can refuse a demotion.

That’s why I’ve had so much trouble demoting mvp!

[moonslav59]

Yoshida’s 5-year, $90 million contract includes a clause that requires his approval to be sent to the minor leagues. While he can be placed on a rehab assignment (such as after his 2024/2025 injury), these are limited to 20 days for position players. After that period, the team cannot legally option him to Triple-A without his consent.

[Duran Is The Man]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yoshida’s 5-year, $90 million contract includes a clause that requires his approval to be sent to the minor leagues. While he can be placed on a rehab assignment (such as after his 2024/2025 injury), these are limited to 20 days for position players. After that period, the team cannot legally option him to Triple-A without his consent.

Bloom's albatross.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Bloom's albatross.

Yup.

Story looked like another one, until last season.

Maybe Masa can give a little value before his time is up.

[moonslav59]

Soxprospects.com no longer lists an "acquisition" to the infield. They demoted DHam to AAA and inserted I K-F as an infield utility man.

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Romy

3B Mayer

SS Story

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

DH Duran

Bench: Wong, I K-F, Eaton & Yoshida

(Houck, Sandoval & Casas on the IL)

I think DHam or Sogard could beat out Eaton for that slot, and maybe we find a way to trade Masa or get him to agree to "rehab" in AAA. The AAA bench, according to sp.com will be K Campbell, DHam, Sogard & Gasper. Non 40 man players that could see time are Matt Thaiss, Mikey Romero, Nathan Hickey and Braiden Ward.

The issue with the 13 man pitching staff is measuring quality and need vs players with no options and deciding to move some starters to the pen to start the season. Soxprospects.com lists 14 pitchers, and I think Kelly will be the guy who begins the season in AAA, so Moran & Watson do not need to be DFA'd or sent back on Rule 5 requirements.

Crochet, Suarez, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Crawford (pen?)

Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten Weissert, Harrison, Watson, Moran (Kelly to AAA)

Others on the 40 but beginning the season in AAA are: Tolle, Early, Uberstine, Drohan & Samaniego (Bennett in AA.)

To me, this looks like a very solid 26 and 40 man roster with a handful of decent players not on the 40. The two major weak areas are 2B or 3B and offense (power.) One player, like Paredes can address both of those needs, while someone like Hoerner or Shaw could address one need and help a little with the other.

I'm feeling less optimistic about adding another big piece, before the season starts, and counting on Brez to do it mid season up to the deadline is a frightening thought. Without any significant additions, we are left with hoping the youth movement takes center stage, while some vets put up career or near career years.

I suppose we could win with pitching and defense with average offense, but that is a new mindset for Sox fans to grapple with... me included.

[JoeBrady]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

this looks like a very solid 26 and 40 man roster with a handful of decent players not on the 40. The two major weak areas are 2B or 3B and offense (power.)

Masa stands out like a sore thumb in that scenario.  I think he can still hit, but with Duran as the DH, Masa's value is -0-.  Eat salary, add a prospect (or maybe a #7/8/9 SP during ST) and get a RH DH/IF that at least owns an IF glove.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Masa stands out like a sore thumb in that scenario.  I think he can still hit, but with Duran as the DH, Masa's value is -0-.  Eat salary, add a prospect (or maybe a #7/8/9 SP during ST) and get a RH DH/IF that at least owns an IF glove.

I just don't see Yoshida as THE big problem on a team that can't make contact. He won't hit 30 homers, but neither will anyone else in Boston... (at least, not one guy on the freaking 40 ever has yet).

I'm just not one to complain that he just "doesn't fit." To me, the main reason Masa doesn't fit is that he doesn't whiff.

I'm not saying he's even good, but I do think most of our other returning bats are a bit overrated on this forum. Few even admit the possibility he may surprise and contribute more than another guy or two we're actually counting on.

I'm looking forward to the WBC: 1) to watch competitive world class baseball next month; 2). to see what Yoshida's got this year.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Masa stands out like a sore thumb in that scenario.  I think he can still hit, but with Duran as the DH, Masa's value is -0-.  Eat salary, add a prospect (or maybe a #7/8/9 SP during ST) and get a RH DH/IF that at least owns an IF glove.

If Masa would agree to go to AAA, but why would he? He'd be useful as DH depth. If any OF'er gets hurt, Duran moves to OF and Masa could DH, at least vs RHPs only. That does have some value, but not taking up a slot on the 26. He'd be the 5th OF'er behind the same guy, Duran, ahead of him at DH.

It would make a ton of sense to try and offload Masa somehow- someway. Exchange for an underwater pitcher or infielder? Throw in a decent prospect (below #12ish?) Or, just pay $12-15M or of his $18M owed each of the next 2 seasons. Our roster would have more flexibility, and with a weak offense, we may need as much of that as possible. If an OF'er gets hurt, maybe Campbell can be given a shot at winning the FT DH slot for the rest of the season. Maybe Casas comes back in time to fill the role. When and if Casas comes back, Masa's role is diminished even more.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just don't see Yoshida as THE big problem on a team that can't make contact. He won't hit 30 homers, but neither will anyone else in Boston... (at least, not one guy on the freaking 40 ever has yet).

I'm just not one to complain that he just "doesn't fit." To me, the main reason Masa doesn't fit is that he doesn't whiff.

I'm not saying he's even good, but I do think most of our other returning bats are a bit overrated on this forum. Few even admit the possibility he may surprise and contribute more than another guy or two we're actually counting on.

I'm looking forward to the WBC: 1) to watch competitive world class baseball next month; 2). to see what Yoshida's got this year.

The only way I see Masa as a "fit," is if Rafaela plays 2B and Duran plays in the OF.

I'm never benching an OF'er for a decent contact hitter with a .775 OPS tops.

Who do you bench for Punch & Judy Masa?

If Casas comes back to form, who is the next guy you bench?

Too bad Masa can't play 2B. I'd gladly bench DHam for his bat.

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I just don't see Yoshida as THE big problem on a team that can't make contact.

I don't disagree.  On a different team, a DH with a 112 OPS+ has real value.  He provides quality ABs.  It's a question of when does he start.  Even a real sketchy glove like Vientos can give ABs to rest our three lefty OFs against tough lefties, as well as backing up Mayer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not benching anybody, but this offense is so full of Ifs and Buts that unless everyone improves and everyone comes back as good as new, we're going to need prescription meds for acid-reflex all summer.

Forget about watching slugfests and prepare for many ugfests. As in ugly.

The one guy I'd be shocked they'll trade is Abreu. Cora already noted his plans for playing Abreu more fulltime and Werner's still waiting to see him get 400 at bats.

 

[moonslav59]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't disagree.  On a different team, a DH with a 112 OPS+ has real value.  He provides quality ABs.  It's a question of when does he start.  Even a real sketchy glove like Vientos can give ABs to rest our three lefty OFs against tough lefties, as well as backing up Mayer.

Masa has a career 109 OPS+, but your point still stands. He turns 33 in July, so there really is no reason to expect he tops 109. His best season was 116 in 2024. That might be a reasonable ceiling on his expectations with his 2025's 93 OPS+ as maybe his rock bottom floor.

For a team that needs a DH and not a DH with power, he should have value. He's a negative on LF defense, so I doubt any team would be thinking of a dual role for him, other than maybe 5th OF'er/emergency back-up LF'er while primarily being a DH only guy on the 26.

BTV has his "value" as $5.6M for 2 years. That's $2.8M x 2. If some team values him this much AND wants/needs him, we can be expected to pay $15 x 2 years out of the $18M x 2 years owed. That kinda makes me think I'd rather keep him as DH depth than trade him, but he takes up a 26 man slot. As long as Casas is on the IL, I'm okay with that, but if he comes back and looks good, I can't see any need for Casas.

The other idea is to add a prospect like we did adding Sandlin with Hicks in a trade for a distant prospect. If we added one or two of these guys to Masa, maybe we save these amounts of money need to pay off Masa:

19.9 Crawford (I really like his bounce back chances, but we are loaded with SP'er depth.)

12.5 Soto

7.6 Oviedo or 4.7 Harrison (see SP'er depth comment)

6.8 Cespedes (I think this is vastly over-valued)

4.5 Sandoval (would dump even more salary and AAV implications)

3.8 DHam (now that we have I K-F, Cheng and Rodgers, he can be taken away from Cora as an infield option.)

3.5 Bleis

2.9 Drohan, 2.3 Zanetello and others near this level.

I don't see it happening. Name a team that would significantly improve with Masa as their DH and is willing to pay him $3-5M a year, or more if we add a prospect or two?

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm not benching anybody, but this offense is so full of Ifs and Buts that unless everyone improves and everyone comes back as good as new, we're going to need prescription meds for acid-reflex all summer.

Forget about watching slugfests and prepare for many ugfests. As in ugly.

The one guy I'd be shocked they'll trade is Abreu. Cora already noted his plans for playing Abreu more fulltime and Werner's still waiting to see him get 400 at bats.

 

So, what is you generic opening day line-up? The one you think is the most likely used one, assuming no injuries, except Casas.

1. L Anthony LF/CF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Duran CF/LF v R & DH vs L

4. L Abreu RF

5. R Story SS

6. L Masa DH v R & R Romy 2B v L

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 3B

9. R Rafaela 2B/CF

This is doable, although I cringe thinking Rafaela plays 2B in over 100 starts.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Batting your best hitter directly after the two worst OBPs is not optimal, in my opinion.

What I think Cora will do if Duran's still on the team: he may platoon Duran as a starter in CF with Rafaela -- but both will play just about every game. Neither will DH and they're not playing Ceddanne at 2B just to get his bat in the line-up. Anthony and Abreu are fixtures in LF and RF.

vs. righty starting pitcher: Duran-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Romy.

vs. lefty starting pitcher: Romy-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Rafaela.

vs. either after trade: Hoerner-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Rafaela.

 

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Batting your best hitter directly after the two worst OBPs is not optimal, in my opinion.

What I think Cora will do if Duran's still on the team: he may platoon Duran as a starter in CF with Rafaela -- but both will play just about every game. Neither will DH and they're not playing Ceddanne at 2B just to get his bat in the line-up. Anthony and Abreu are fixtures in LF and RF.

vs. righty starting pitcher: Duran-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Romy.

vs. lefty starting pitcher: Romy-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Rafaela.

vs. either after trade: Hoerner-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu-Story-Yoshida-Narvaez-Mayer-Rafaela.

 

Duran may or may not be our best hitters, but Anthony and Contreras had the best 2025 OBPs of any returning player on the roster.

I would not mind Anthony up 2nd, as he rates to be our best hitter.

Contreras may have more power than anyone but Abreu, so 3rd or 4th for him is fine by me.

Duran's low OBP was the reason he was removed from leadoff, last season. .332 is not horrible, but for a lead-off guy, it kinda is. (He's .328 career.)

[moonslav59]

I might try this...

1. L Duran LF v R/ R Romy v L 2B

2. L Anthony CF v R & LF v L

3. R Contreras C

4. L Abreu RF v L/ R Story SS v L

5. R Story SS v L/ L Abreu RF v L

6. L Masa DH v R/ L Duran DH v L

7. R Narvaez C 

8. L Mayer 3B

9. R Rafaela 2B v R & CF v L

 

[moonslav59]

Top 2025 OBP Splits:

v RHPs

.424 Anthony

.363 Duran

.350 Eaton (41 PAs)

.333 Contreras (w STL) ,347 career

.321 Abreu

.318 Masa & Romy

.308 Story

.306 Rafaela

.302 KC

.296 Narvaez

.294 Mayer

.255 Wong

v LHPs

.378 Romy

.375 Contreras (w STL) .366 career

.371 Sogard (35 PAs)

.365 KC

.347 Eaton (49)

.337 Anthony

.332 Narvaez

.306 Story

.299 Abreu

.265 Rafaela (reverse splits, career too)

.260 Duran (.284 career)

.250 Masa

.185 Mayer (27)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Sox 4 GG Winners:

Wilyer Abreu RF 2024 & 2025 (Career .791 OPS w 27 HRs per 650)

Ceddane Rafaela CF 2025 (Career high .708 OPS in '25)

Brendan Rodgers 2B 2022 (He had a .746 OPS from '21 to '24 w 17 HRs per 650)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3B 2020 (His best OPS seasons were .699 in '20 & .683 in '24)

Close calls:

Story in 2018 and 2020 at SS.

Would this be the best defensive alignment?

C Narvaez

1B Contreras

2B Rodgers

3B Story/Mayer

SS I K-F

LF Anthony

CF Rafaela

RF Abreu

Narvaez was a top 3 finalist at C in his rookie 2025 season.