A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, a700hitter said:

If there are no other bats added, the 26 offense will have a difficulty time producing runs.  They have zero major offensive weapons.  Maybe Anthony will turn out to be a big stick, but that’s a lot to put on his shoulders for 2026.

I think that's the real rub. He should be a very good to great player as he grows, but it will be his first full MLB season. Expecting him to lead the team offensively is just too much at this point. 

[moonslav59]

We lost very few batters who stunk at hitting:

284 PAs Toro 83 OPS+

18 PAs Sabol -1 OPS+

9 PAs Jh Garcia 76 OPS+

That might be a record for least amount of bad hitters lost over an off season. (311 PAs at about an 80 OPS+)

We also lost about 1150 PAs of good to very good batters from the 2025 team:

495 Bregman 128 OPS+

334 Devers 151 OPS+

209 Refsnyder 131 OPS+

119 N Lowe 121 OPS+

That's a combined OPS+ of over 130, which is better than any returning player did, last year, except Anthony at 140 in 303 PAs.

These are the 2025 OPS for Sox players:

140 Anthony 303 PAs

128 Romy 341

*** 123 Contreras 563 w STL ***

116 Abreu 417

114 Duran 696

105 Eaton 90

104 Story 654

100 Narvaez 446

95 Rafaela 587

93 Yoshida 205

86 Campbell 263

85 Sogard 104

85 Mayer 136

63 DHam 194

62 Casas 112

42 Wong 188

Certainly some reason for serious concern.

 

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Finding a way to dump half of Yoshida has been my 2 year quest.

(BTW, I think Cincy says no, even if we pay $24M.)

I still see no real reason to trade Yoshi, but I also think that Cincy would be interested.  Lux and Hays took most of their DH PAs last year.  Lux doesn't hit much, and Hays is gone.  To me, it looks like they need a DH.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I still see no real reason to trade Yoshi, but I also think that Cincy would be interested.  Lux and Hays took most of their DH PAs last year.  Lux doesn't hit much, and Hays is gone.  To me, it looks like they need a DH.

The Great American Ballpark would be much better for Masa's swing than Fenway. Not sure how likely a deal would be. 

[JoeBrady]

11 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

it is just hard to believe we have to ... dump Duran and Yoshida to afford Suarez.

Does that make sense to you?  We're absolutely, positively not dumping Duran.  And there is absolutely, positively nothing wrong with trading your #4 outfielder.  And there is nothing wrong with trading Yoshi (I think he'll have a good year) and platooning Romy & Casas at DH (assuming health).

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Great American Ballpark would be much better for Masa's swing than Fenway. Not sure how likely a deal would be. 

Yoshi is pedestrian.  All 30 should show some interest.  But -0- teams will be making phone calls.  But there has to be a couple that'll kick the tires.  I mean, the LAA traded for Soler, so there's always a marhet.

[notin]

39 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I still see no real reason to trade Yoshi, but I also think that Cincy would be interested.  Lux and Hays took most of their DH PAs last year.  Lux doesn't hit much, and Hays is gone.  To me, it looks like they need a DH.

The Reds don’t need a DH.  They need to stop putting DHs like Spencer Steer and Sal Stewart out in the field…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Yoshi is pedestrian.  All 30 should show some interest.  But -0- teams will be making phone calls.  But there has to be a couple that'll kick the tires.  I mean, the LAA traded for Soler, so there's always a marhet.

To be somewhat fair, as overpaid as Soler is, he does have some decent credentials like “former home run champ” and “former World Seried MVP” on his resume…

[notin]

Some BTV-approved trades to help the Sox snd their trading partners:

Boston gets 3b Isaac Paredes.

Houston gets RHP Marcus Phillips

Granted, influenced by AI analysis, but if Paredes is the fit the model says, he’s a no-brainer target over Bichette.  Houston’s barren farm system could use some young pitching, but whether or not Phillips is a guy they like is another matter

 

Boston get C Dalton Rushing, RHP Jackson Ferris

LA gets OF Jarren Duran

Boston has Carlos Narvaez and not much else behind the plate. Rushing is blocked in LA and they struggle to find places to play him.  Ferris replaces Phillips in the Sox farm.

The Dodgers could definitely use Duran, given their outfield situation is best described as a Slapdash Clusterf*** made of  versatile infielders and a Frankenstein clone (named Andy? How does that animatronic beast get named Andy?).

Their best outfielder plays shortstop, their best second baseman plays CF, their best CF plays LF on occasion, and RF belongs to a guy who needs to DH.  Duran gives them some stability at either LF  or CF.  Teoscar in LF, Duran in CF and Pages in RF looks much better than the rotational mess they trot out their nightly.

Friedman (or whoever I called) says he is fully on board.  I’m sure Houston is, too, given what they gave up to get an NPC starting pitcher from Pittsburgh.

Then sign Ranger Suarez and his groundball tendencies.

Make it happen, Craig…

[mvp 78]

If they bring in Paredes, they are done for the offseason. Zero chance they sign Suarez considering the money it would take and the QO attached. 

[harmony]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they bring in Paredes, they are done for the offseason. Zero chance they sign Suarez considering the money it would take and the QO attached. 

Eugenio Suarez, who was traded at the deadline, was not eligible for a qualifying offer.

Ranger Suarez, on the other hand ...

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Eugenio Suarez, who was traded at the deadline, was not eligible for a qualifying offer.

Ranger Suarez, on the other hand ...

Notin referenced Ranger Suarez in the post before mine. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If they bring in Paredes, they are done for the offseason. Zero chance they sign Suarez considering the money it would take and the QO attached. 

Free agency is for PR.  They need some positive PR right now…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Friedman (or whoever I called) says he is fully on board.  I’m sure Houston is, too,

Trust no one.  But I'd make both those trades.  I don't think either the Astros or the Dodgers would.  But Paredes doesn't currently have a position.  Neither does Rushing, and Duran would be a great fit.

I think both proposals are ballpark correct, one way or another, and good fits all around.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Trust no one.  But I'd make both those trades.  I don't think either the Astros or the Dodgers would.  But Paredes doesn't currently have a position.  Neither does Rushing, and Duran would be a great fit.

I think both proposals are ballpark correct, one way or another, and good fits all around.

Houston might, considering what they gave up for a rather nondescript Mike Burrows.

 

The Dodgers should, but Friedman appears be more willing to trade one of his own children before dealing a young pitcher.  Not the child that can pitch, mind you. So probably the boy…

[drewski6]

Paredes for Phillips sounds too good to be true.

I dont love Duran for a backup catcher and a reliever.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I still see no real reason to trade Yoshi, but I also think that Cincy would be interested.  Lux and Hays took most of their DH PAs last year.  Lux doesn't hit much, and Hays is gone.  To me, it looks like they need a DH.

I'm okay with Yoshida at DH- more okay than most, but I want to make room for Casas/Campbell/Romy. (If Duran is not traded, his slot is FT DH.)

[moonslav59]

I'd trade two Phillips for Paredes!

Okay, how about Phillips & Eyanson or Phillps & Sandlin or Mullins.

My call is Campbell for Paredes. HOU needs an OF'er.

It's not a dump. but KC's AAV is $7.5M, so maybe that can be used to add a pitcher.

[Larry Cook]

If we assume the Phillies sign bichete, does that open an opportunity for us to trade with desperate Dave??

I would be willing to take painter and brohm off his hands!!! 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

If we assume the Phillies sign bichete, does that open an opportunity for us to trade with desperate Dave??

I would be willing to take painter and brohm off his hands!!! 

I think Dave really wants to keep Painter.

How about Harrison & YRod for Bohm?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Yoshi is pedestrian.  All 30 should show some interest.  But -0- teams will be making phone calls.  But there has to be a couple that'll kick the tires.  I mean, the LAA traded for Soler, so there's always a marhet.

I think if we told team's they can have Yoshida for $4-5M a year (their cost) we might get a couple calls. $3M, maybe a half dozen calls or more.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Paredes for Phillips sounds too good to be true.

I dont love Duran for a backup catcher and a reliever.

I don't get why we'd trade Duran for that either. Maybe I like Narvaez too much?

[Larry Cook]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't get why we'd trade Duran for that either. Maybe I like Narvaez too much?

What do we do if narveaz is not ready for the start of the regular season?  His surgery is such that he is not allowed to participate in the wbc!  Do we have another catcher on the 40 man beside wong? (Who also has wrist surgery this offseason!) 

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs has Paredes projected for 2.3 FWAR (.798 OPS.) I think he does much better and maybe even bust-out better.

I'm not sure why BTV has his value at 11.6, and Crawford nearly double that. I'd trade Crawford straight up, yesterday! They have Abreu at 27.4, but he does have 4 years of control to 2 by Paredes. I might offer Abreu for Paredes and Brian King. (BTV accepts that trade along with catching prospect Janek worth 7!)

I'd trade Crawford for Paredes and Sousa.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

What do we do if narveaz is not ready for the start of the regular season?  His surgery is such that he is not allowed to participate in the wbc!  Do we have another catcher on the 40 man beside wong? (Who also has wrist surgery this offseason!) 

I'm not worried about Narvaez and opening day. 

We do have Contreras, who was reportedly going to play some catcher in 2026 for STL in 2026. He should not be the FT C, for sure.

[Larry Cook]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not worried about Narvaez and opening day. 

We do have Contreras, who was reportedly going to play some catcher in 2026 for STL in 2026. He should not be the FT C, for sure.

Catcher is still a woefully thin position group for us!  
the dodgers really want abreau from us! They have dalton and tons of pitching 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

If we assume the Phillies sign bichete, does that open an opportunity for us to trade with desperate Dave??

I would be willing to take painter and brohm off his hands!!! 

Bohm - would definitely be available but he’s kind of mediocre by corner infielder standards.

Painter - not even at gunpoint…

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Paredes for Phillips sounds too good to be true.

I dont love Duran for a backup catcher and a reliever.

Rushing might not be a backup. Hes a top prospect with potential to outhit Narvaez…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Paredes' Pull Power a Phenway Phit?

I. Paredes is an intriguing option. Selected as an All-Star the past two years for his bat, but only hit a career-high .254 last season. Also slugged 31 HRs three years ago -- when he played half his games in Crapitona Field in Florida.

162-game averages since 2023:

Paredes 29 HR, 94 RBI, .793 OPS. K-rate 17.3%.

Bichette 19 HR, 90 RBI, .778 OPS, K-rate 17.3%.

... dang yo -- Isaac might only cost a young arm, and definitely not 300 million clams...

(he's also a negative dWAR third baseman, so there may be something too Raffy about then signing Ranger Suarez, a ground ball pitcher)

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not worried about Narvaez and opening day. 

We do have Contreras, who was reportedly going to play some catcher in 2026 for STL in 2026. He should not be the FT C, for sure.

St. Louis is the only team in MLB that carried 3 catchers (Herrera, Pages, and Pozo) on their roster last year not counting Contreras.  Not sure why they feel the need to have a fourth..