A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Because we love bounce back pitching promises.

Yes, on one year deals not guys signed for 1/2 a decade. 

[Hugh2]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

One problem I see is mostly you are not trading the same position for the same position, so just, because an OF has a higher value than a pitcher doesn’t necessarily mean to me it would be a so called overpay. Wants, needs, and what a team will actually do you can’t assign a value to IMO.

I like to plug trades into BTV after they happen.  Often times the value is spot on, or close.....other times.....not so much. 

[mvp 78]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I like Paredes, but thats a steep cost (tolle or early)

No way would the Sox do that. They were hesitant to include either for Ryan. Can't see them trading either for Paredes. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No way would the Sox do that. They were hesitant to include either for Ryan. Can't see them trading either for Paredes. 

TY, I feel better now. I do think Paredes is a solid target, but Im still very high on Tolle and Early looked very good last year.  Now if Early's emergence makes Dobbins expendable and we flip Dobbins for Paredes, thats a good trade IMO.

[FredLynn]

Schwarber is off the table. Just signed with the Phillies. Soon Alonso will be off the table too. Henry is too cheap to get a premier bat or a premier #2. We are basically going with who we have and maybe Bregman. Welcome persistent mediocrity.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

TY, I feel better now. I do think Paredes is a solid target, but Im still very high on Tolle and Early looked very good last year.  Now if Early's emergence makes Dobbins expendable and we flip Dobbins for Paredes, thats a good trade IMO.

They have stockpiled enough other SP assets that they could include in a trade for Paredes if they went that route. Would be surprised to see them trade Tolle/Early for anything but a superstar positional player or a TOTR guy. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Welcome persistent mediocrity.

What 4 World Series rings does to a person... 😼

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You may be most familiar with Paredes in Houston -- what's the word on him? All-Star righty-swinger? 

Looking at stats: around a .350 on base guy the past three years, with sub-20% K-rate. He's also a negative dWAR third baseman. A poor man's Raffy, without the poor attitude? Isaac has actually played 1B, as well as his main spot at 3B.

This guy is pretty damn good, but missed some time, last year.

He's at the age where maybe he explodes.

HOU traded Tucker for this guy (and other.) 

I really like Tolle and Early, but I'd consider trading one for him.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Schwarber is off the table. Just signed with the Phillies. 

$30M x 5 years for an old foggie!

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What 4 World Series rings does to a person... 😼

Last four seasons: 3rd, 3rd, LAST, LAST.

What does that do to a person?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

This guy is pretty damn good, but missed some time, last year.

He's at the age where maybe he explodes.

HOU traded Tucker for this guy (and other.) 

I really like Tolle and Early, but I'd consider trading one for him.

Dead pull hitter, but really poor hard hit rate. Doesn't seem like a Bloom guy? 

[FredLynn]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

$30M x 5 years for an old foggie!

Nice fit for the Sox...except that Henry is too cheap to sign him or anyone else of significance. Gray? LOLOLOL

[mvp 78]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Last four seasons: 3rd, 3rd, LAST, LAST.

What does that do to a person?

Last season was PLAYOFFS 89-73. Feeling pretty good ATM. 

[FredLynn]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Last season was PLAYOFFS 89-73. Feeling pretty good ATM. 

I admit last year was an improvement. This upcoming year I expect MORE. But we are not going to get MORE if the best we can do is Gray and maybe Bregman. Its possible that they aren't done adding but I would be very surprised if they added real quality like Alonso or a real #2 SP. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I admit last year was an improvement. This upcoming year I expect MORE. But we are not going to get MORE if the best we can do is Gray and maybe Bregman. Its possible that they aren't done adding but I would be very surprised if they added real quality like Alonso or a real #2 SP. 

Staying even is a losing strategy.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I admit last year was an improvement. This upcoming year I expect MORE. But we are not going to get MORE if the best we can do is Gray and maybe Bregman. Its possible that they aren't done adding but I would be very surprised if they added real quality like Alonso or a real #2 SP. 

It's only the 2nd day of the Winter Meetings. No reason to rant about roster makeup until ST rolls around. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

Staying even is a losing strategy.

They've made statements that they wouldn't, but we'll see. 

[FredLynn]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They've made statements that they wouldn't, but we'll see. 

Like last year (2024)? Or "Full throttle".....turned out to be a joke, just like the year before. Two years in a row of equivocating at the TD. Breslow wasted a chance for a deep playoff run in 2025 and publicly stated that he "wished he could have done more". I suspect we will get the same language this year.

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Like last year (2024)? Or "Full throttle".....turned out to be a joke, just like the year before. Two years in a row of equivocating at the TD. Breslow wasted a chance for a deep playoff run in 2025 and publicly stated that he "wished he could have done more". I suspect we will get the same language this year.

God, I hope not.

I do think we'll make a real run at Alonso, but theyll have to get uncomfortable and Im not sure they do.

Get Alonso or not, finish first or fifth.  Its all kind of whatever to me.  Just as long as we dont let let the condescending bootlicking history rewriters take a victory lap.

I can see it now. "We signed nobody and finished in fourth! This is great! This is great! TY billionaire class for my cell phone! Ill happily give up my weekend without extra pay if it helps my billionaire heroes get a fifth yacht!  Maybe one day, theyll notice me."  Look at all these prospects! Wow 2030 is going to be sooo grand"

You wedgie these nerds and youll always have a spot at my table.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Like last year (2024)? Or "Full throttle".....turned out to be a joke, just like the year before. Two years in a row of equivocating at the TD. Breslow wasted a chance for a deep playoff run in 2025 and publicly stated that he "wished he could have done more". I suspect we will get the same language this year.

FULL THROTTLE is why I wrote "we'll see." Breslow had a very good offseason last year. He needs to follow it up with another good one this year. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This guy is pretty damn good, but missed some time, last year.

He's at the age where maybe he explodes.

HOU traded Tucker for this guy (and other.) 

I really like Tolle and Early, but I'd consider trading one for him.

Thanks. Quite an endorsement -- a young pitcher for a hitter still young enough to be part of the core of a sustained contender? 

I'd trade an unproven pitcher for an All-Star everyday player about to enter his prime -- any day.

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Add Masa and Hicks and get Burns added on?

Burns is from Bakersfield, CA, not far from AZ.  He lives in AZ.  He chose them for a reason. He also has full no trade protection for the first two years (through March 31, 2027).  

Arizona couldn’t trade him if they wanted to…

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Report says BOS interested in Paredes. HOU interested in Tolle or Early.

Paredes turns 27 soon. He has 90 HRs in his last 2031 PAs (since '22.) That's almost 30 over 650. He has a .793 OPS since '23.

Career: .805 v L and .754 v R

If Paredes is interesting, and I see the appeal due to his strong pull tendencies at Fenway, what about the significantly cheaper and slightly younger version?  Houston wants a lot for their guy.  Chicago might be less greedy.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/miguel-vargas-678246?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

 

 

 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

If Paredes is interesting, and I see the appeal due to his strong pull tendencies at Fenway, what about the significantly cheaper and slightly younger version?  Houston wants a lot for their guy.  Chicago might be less greedy.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/miguel-vargas-678246?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

 

 

 

This is a good point. I mean why have good baseball players when you can a bad one for cheaper.  Might even be slightly younger!

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

Burns is from Bakersfield, CA, not far from AZ.  He lives in AZ.  He chose them for a reason. He also has full no trade protection for the first two years (through March 31, 2027).  

Arizona couldn’t trade him if they wanted to…

What about Chase Burns?

[mvp 78]

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

This is a good point. I mean why have good baseball players when you can a bad one for cheaper.  Might even be slightly younger!

Is Vargas really worse?  His 1.9 fWAR wasn’t exactly lapped by Paredes 2.4 fWAR.

Id rather have Vargas and Tolle than Paredes and Dobbins…

[notin]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

What about Chase Burns?

Not from Bakersfield.  Arizona gladly trades him, but Cincinnati might object…

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Is Vargas really worse?  His 1.9 fWAR wasn’t exactly lapped by Paredes 2.4 fWAR.

Id rather have Vargas and Tolle than Paredes and Dobbins…

From Bregman to Marte to Paredes to mr 80 OPS+ vargas himself.

If they insist on Tolle for Paredes, move on.  Maybe offer Bregman 200m.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Not from Bakersfield.  Arizona gladly trades him, but Cincinnati might object…

Hes really good.