A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

I saw some video where I heard "insiders say the Sox are willing to go over the first tax line but not by much."

If that is true, we have about $21M to reach the line, so maybe $25-30M to spend, not counting any salary losses via trades.

That might mean Alonso is the limit and nobody else. Maybe we could trade Duran or Campbell for KMarte (net $12M add) and then sign Suarez for $15-18M AAV. No more pitcher adds. No Schwarber or Alonso or Bregman/Bichette.

Is Gray, Oviedo, Marte and Suarez enough?

[moonslav59]

Right now, with no Devers, no Breggie, no Refsnyder and no Lowe, our 2026 looks like this:

1. L Anthony LF

2. L Duran DH

3. R Story SS

4. L Abreu RF (FT)/ Maybe Masa at DH w an OF shuffle

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Romy 2B/ L DHam 2B

7. L Mayer 3B/R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Masa, Romy/DHam & _____ (Campbell, Sogard, Eaton)

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Hicks

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Right now, with no Devers, no Breggie, no Refsnyder and no Lowe, our 2026 looks like this:

1. L Anthony LF

2. L Duran DH

3. R Story SS

4. L Abreu RF (FT)/ Maybe Masa at DH w an OF shuffle

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Romy 2B/ L DHam 2B

7. L Mayer 3B/R Romy 3B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Masa, Romy/DHam & _____ (Campbell, Sogard, Eaton)

SP: Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Hicks

What about the lefty reliever we got from Pittsburgh??

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

What about the lefty reliever we got from Pittsburgh??

He'll probably be placed in AA- maybe AAA.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

He'll probably be placed in AA- maybe AAA.

So why did bres-slow push to include him in the trade? 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

So why did bres-slow push to include him in the trade? 

Because he likes him and plans on being around long enough to see him come through? He might be in the AAA pen to start the year and be a mid season callup, I guess. They'd probably DFA Uberstine or Drohan ahead of him.

Guzman is even farther away.

[Larry Cook]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Because he likes him and plans on being around long enough to see him come through? He might be in the AAA pen to start the year and be a mid season callup, I guess. They'd probably DFA Uberstine or Drohan ahead of him.

Guzman is even farther away.

I think the reliever is already 26 years old 

I would think bres-slow would push him to Boston pretty quickly 

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think the reliever is already 26 years old 

I would think bres-slow would push him to Boston pretty quickly 

Maybe. I think we have too many SP'ers better than he is, who will be in the pen first.

[JoeBrady]

49 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

So why did bres-slow push to include him in the trade? 

Has anything been written that Tyler Samaniego was considered a deal breaker, or just one of three guys that Pitt offered?

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe. I think we have too many SP'ers better than he is, who will be in the pen first.

I wouldn't be surprised if Tyler was given a chance in ST to win a BP role.  We have lefties, but all are either SPs or our closer.  We currently have no situational lefties.  I assume 1-2 of the lefty SPs will be assigned to BP duty,  But Drohan and Moran likely start in the minors, and if Early and/or Tolle don't win a starting gig, they too will be in the minors.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Tyler was given a chance in ST to win a BP role.  We have lefties, but all are either SPs or our closer.  We currently have no situational lefties.  I assume 1-2 of the lefty SPs will be assigned to BP duty,  But Drohan and Moran likely start in the minors, and if Early and/or Tolle don't win a starting gig, they too will be in the minors.

He might get a chance, He's probably better than Uberhan and Drohstine.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Has anything been written that Tyler Samaniego was considered a deal breaker, or just one of three guys that Pitt offered?

Deal breaker? No, nothing like that. 
 

only that Bres-slow singled out this guy for inclusion in the trade. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Deal breaker? No, nothing like that. 

only that Bres-slow singled out this guy for inclusion in the trade. 

He did?

[moonslav59]

Saw somewhere a suggest trade:

Duran, Tolle & Paez for Hunter Greene

4 years of control: I have to say YES! ($8.3M AAV)

26:$8M, 27:$15M, 28:$16M, 29:$21M club option ($2M buyout)

We could afford to sign a big bat or trade Campbell & pitching depth for KMarte.

What a rotation!

Crochet, Greene, Gray, Bello, whoever is left from Oviedo/Sandoval/Harrison/Crawford/Early/Dobbins

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What a rotation!

That may be exactly what the front office is hoping Red Sox fans will be chanting if Boston fails to land any big free agent bats.

Swing a trade for another pitcher, solve the outfield logjam, and save kajillions on DHs you don't want still hanging around when they're older.

Of course, Cora will also have to hire 80-year old Rod Carew out of retirement to teach the batting order how to bunt, cuz they ain't homering to any playoffs...

[Hugh2]

1/2 the board seems convinced the Sox will not go over the luxury tax threshold.  

If that were true, the Sox have about 17 million to spend. 

Which means maybe we get Okamoto at 3B with Casas at first and that's it.  Thats our off season.

Perhaps a Duran trade is still in the works, but that increases the budget to what? 24 million? That's probably not enough to sign any of Alonso/Bichette/Schwarber.  But it would be enough for a Marte trade. 

Personally, I think they're easily going above that first threshold.  I think they settle in just shy of $260 

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That may be exactly what the front office is hoping Red Sox fans will be chanting if Boston fails to land any big free agent bats.

Swing a trade for another pitcher, solve the outfield logjam, and save kajillions on DHs you don't want still hanging around when they're older.

Of course, Cora will also have to hire 80-year old Rod Carew out of retirement to teach the batting order how to bunt, cuz they ain't homering to any playoffs...

Back to back doubles does the same thing as a home run. 

I'm not saying power outage isn't a problem, but you don't have to hit home runs to win....you just have to score runs. 

[Hugh2]

Toronto had 5 more home runs than us all of last year, and came within a play of winning the world series. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Toronto had 5 more home runs than us all of last year, and came within a play of winning the world series. 

The Jays also had 320 less strikeouts than Boston -- that was the main reason their offense was better. The Sox need to make more contact, not less.

If they lose Bregman, they're not paying Bichette more to replace him. Brez will have to trade Tolle or Early for Marte just to break even (forget Suarez, who's a bigger whiffer than anybody already on the team).

This week is our CBO's time to shine, swinging some swaps that may define the next season -- especially if ownership is chopping up his debit card.

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Jays also had 320 less strikeouts than Boston -- that was the main reason their offense was better. The Sox need to make more contact, not less.

If they lose Bregman, they're not paying Bichette more to replace him. Brez will have to trade Tolle or Early for Marte just to break even (forget Suarez, who's a bigger whiffer than anybody already on the team).

This week is our CBO's time to shine, swinging some swaps that may define the next season -- especially if ownership is chopping up his debit card.

And yet on average the blue jays scored .07 more runs per game than the Red Sox, or 12 for the whole season. 

I'm not arguing that there's not work to be done, especially when subtracting Bregman but the difference between Boston and Toronot literally was probably just Toronto was hot when they got into the playoffs while the Red Sox went ice cold. 

[Hugh2]

Breslow is going to do something this week, I'm not sure we will all like it, but he's going to do something. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

And yet on average the blue jays scored .07 more runs per game than the Red Sox, or 12 for the whole season. 

I'm not arguing that there's not work to be done, especially when subtracting Bregman but the difference between Boston and Toronot literally was probably just Toronto was hot when they got into the playoffs while the Red Sox went ice cold. 

Come on -- that line-up in the dumb sample size Bronx series was pitiful.

Besides Story, who was there all season, the Red Sox best hitters were a singles-hitting DH batting clean-up and two Quadruple A players.

Toronto got 20 HRs in the postseason from four guys who did it all year: All-Stars Vlad and Kirk, Silver Slugger Springer, and Break-out Barger.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Duran, Tolle & Paez for Hunter Greene

I'd be gassing up the car and driving them there myself.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Toronto had 5 more home runs than us all of last year, and came within a play of winning the world series. 

IMO, way too many people take a look at a success story and think they have to copy it (and I think the same in real life).  I think both us and the EE had better teams than TO, but a lot of randomness goes into short-term success.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

1/2 the board seems convinced the Sox will not go over the luxury tax threshold.  

If that were true, the Sox have about 17 million to spend. 

Which means maybe we get Okamoto at 3B with Casas at first and that's it.  Thats our off season.

Perhaps a Duran trade is still in the works, but that increases the budget to what? 24 million? That's probably not enough to sign any of Alonso/Bichette/Schwarber.  But it would be enough for a Marte trade. 

Personally, I think they're easily going above that first threshold.  I think they settle in just shy of $260 

Same. I really don't understand why people would think they are not going over. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Breslow is going to do something this week, I'm not sure we will all like it, but he's going to do something. 

Again, agreed. I didn't see either of his last two trades coming. Not even imagined them.

He's going to make some big moves this week, but they might not be obvious ones.

And if nothing else, that's exciting.

Seeing a lot of noise around Diamondbacks wanting Mayer for Marte. Do it all day as long as there are no character questions around Marte.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Jays also had 320 less strikeouts than Boston

That's the key.  Of the 12 playoff teams, 5 had a below-average number of HRs.  Only one had a below-average OBP.  The is a need for both, but I think OBP correlates better with scoring than does HRs.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

four guys who did it all year

Only one guy had more than 23 HRs.

[JoeBrady]

24 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Seeing a lot of noise around Diamondbacks wanting Mayer for Marte.

If we do that, then we need to find a 3B.

[Hugh2]

32 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Same. I really don't understand why people would think they are not going over. 

People think the past repeats itself, when it generally just rhymes. 

But more specifically they think the immediate past repeats itself.  So therefore the Red Sox will never spend again.  That will be true every year until it isn't. 

Truth be told, Sox spend....people just don't like how they spend.