A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Terrible defensive player, really streaky hitter who kills them when he is cold and now he has a serious injury history. I'm fine allowing him to compete for the 1st base spot but they need more and he just can't be trusted.  

He's not all that streaky. He was off to a horrible start in 2025, and has had slow starts in other seasons, but over his small sample size career, he seems more consistent than many others.

By month:

.766 in 27 games in 2022 (Rookie)

2023:  .576 APR>.766>.851>1,199>.918>.858 (one of the few who stayed hot to the end)

2024: .857 APR> Injured> .749 AUG>.790 SEP

2025: .590 in 29 games

He's basically had 2 months under .749 out of 11. (I counted 2022 and 2025 as one month samples, as he played in 27 & 29 games..)

To me, this guy is a proven hitter. The doubts about his future are almost all tied to his unique injury that can be career ending.

 

 

[notin]

On 10/24/2025 at 10:42 AM, moonslav59 said:

Duran, yes. Abreu is a GG RF'er in a difficult park.

Zero chance Duran moves to 1b…

[notin]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He's not all that streaky. He was off to a horrible start in 2025, and has had slow starts in other seasons, but over his small sample size career, he seems more consistent than many others.

By month:

.766 in 27 games in 2022 (Rookie)

2023:  .576 APR>.766>.851>1,199>.918>.858 (one of the few who stayed hot to the end)

2024: .857 APR> Injured> .749 AUG>.790 SEP

2025: .590 in 29 games

He's basically had 2 months under .749 out of 11. (I counted 2022 and 2025 as one month samples, as he played in 27 & 29 games..)

To me, this guy is a proven hitter. The doubts about his future are almost all tied to his unique injury that can be career ending.

 

 

Casas might still in the 1b/DH picture at the moment.  But there’s been no public discussion of his future.  While I doubt it happens, he could be non-tendered.  
 

Theres also the question of his return date. Supposedly on track for the start of the season.  But that hasn’t budged from his initial timeline and felt like a boilerplate answer…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Zero chance Duran moves to 1b…

Agreed. His value on another team as an OF'er is much higher than to us as a 1Bman.

I was just showing a way we could keep his plus offense on the team without spending or trading for a 1Bman. I am not for this idea.

I think we should trade Duran as part of a package for a solid SP'er.

My second choice would be to trade Abreu or Rafaela.

Duran to 1B is not even my 10th idea.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

Casas might still in the 1b/DH picture at the moment.  But there’s been no public discussion of his future.  While I doubt it happens, he could be non-tendered.  
 

Theres also the question of his return date. Supposedly on track for the start of the season.  But that hasn’t budged from his initial timeline and felt like a boilerplate answer…

IMO, we need to plan on Casas never coming back, and if he does, he could DH and maybe be an emergency back-up 1Bman. We have Yoshida at $18M x 2, so that throws a wrench into the idea, and both are LHBs. 

I do not think we non tender Casas, as his potential to return to form is too valuable to throw away, and I do not see a 40 man roster crunch that others seem to think we have. Sure, it makes it tough to have the right depth, when we have to start the season with Houck taking a 40 man slot, and then Casas, too. Someone like Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts and perales might need to be on the 10 Day IL to start the season as well. That's a lot of unknown health issues to carry over the winter, but guys like Grissom, Eaton, Sogard, DHam, de Leon, Wink, Kelly, Guerrero and maybe others are near replacement level value or waiver wire similar.

It's not ideal, but we should keep Casas, at least until ST'ing. This is also a reason I would like to see us add just 3-4 HIGHER QUALITY players this winter (maybe even just 2 top quality) over 4-6 semi-high quality guys. Stay away from adding more highly questionable players. We are already maxed out.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. His value on another team as an OF'er is much higher than to us as a 1Bman.

I was just showing a way we could keep his plus offense on the team without spending or trading for a 1Bman. I am not for this idea.

I think we should trade Duran as part of a package for a solid SP'er.

My second choice would be to trade Abreu or Rafaela.

Duran to 1B is not even my 10th idea.

It’s hard to envision a Duran for SP trade, since teams  that want Duran plan on compete ing and teams that plan on competing rarely trade SP.  But last year, KC dealt Singer for (suspected?) offense.

Dealing directly, I could see both Cincy and KC dealing SP for hitting.  Both very likely hold their respective aces - Greene and Ragans.

If that’s the case, Kris Bubic from KC is almost definitely available, as he has one year left. Lodolo with 2 years and better pitches is a good Plan A with Bubic as Plsn B.  In no way would I deal Duran straight up for Bubic.  Maybe Lodolo.

BTV also likes a trade of Duran to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing and Emmit Sheehan.  The Dodgers have no CF and too many catchers, so it makes some sense for them.  In that deal, I flip Sheehan for a veteran SP (Tanner Bibee, Mackenzie Gore, Effin Joe Ryan)…

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, we need to plan on Casas never coming back, and if he does, he could DH and maybe be an emergency back-up 1Bman. We have Yoshida at $18M x 2, so that throws a wrench into the idea, and both are LHBs. 

I do not think we non tender Casas, as his potential to return to form is too valuable to throw away, and I do not see a 40 man roster crunch that others seem to think we have. Sure, it makes it tough to have the right depth, when we have to start the season with Houck taking a 40 man slot, and then Casas, too. Someone like Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts and perales might need to be on the 10 Day IL to start the season as well. That's a lot of unknown health issues to carry over the winter, but guys like Grissom, Eaton, Sogard, DHam, de Leon, Wink, Kelly, Guerrero and maybe others are near replacement level value or waiver wire similar.

It's not ideal, but we should keep Casas, at least until ST'ing. This is also a reason I would like to see us add just 3-4 HIGHER QUALITY players this winter (maybe even just 2 top quality) over 4-6 semi-high quality guys. Stay away from adding more highly questionable players. We are already maxed out.

If the Sox tender Casas, Hes likely in the mix.  Especially if he’s not ready opening day.

I don’t think teams use the “can’t count on strategy” like it gets thrown around here.  If they offer him a deal, which means in many cases, they’re offering him MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, they clearly are counting on him.  The Red Sox didn’t offer Roman Anthony numerous millions of dollars so they could not rely on him being a productive hitter.  Hes one of the “two big bats” everyone says the Sox need.  Book it.

As for Casas and his injury history, not sure what folks expect.  I’m sure the Sox will sign someone to replace him, but it’s going to be unexciting, like Abraham Toro unexciting.  Players like Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell are less likely to sign MiLB deals and wait for injuries…

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

It’s hard to envision a Duran for SP trade, since teams  that want Duran plan on compete ing and teams that plan on competing rarely trade SP.  But last year, KC dealt Singer for (suspected?) offense.

Dealing directly, I could see both Cincy and KC dealing SP for hitting.  Both very likely hold their respective aces - Greene and Ragans.

If that’s the case, Kris Bubic from KC is almost definitely available, as he has one year left. Lodolo with 2 years and better pitches is a good Plan A with Bubic as Plsn B.  In no way would I deal Duran straight up for Bubic.  Maybe Lodolo.

BTV also likes a trade of Duran to the Dodgers for Dalton Rushing and Emmit Sheehan.  The Dodgers have no CF and too many catchers, so it makes some sense for them.  In that deal, I flip Sheehan for a veteran SP (Tanner Bibee, Mackenzie Gore, Effin Joe Ryan)…

 

Duran does have 3 years of control, so it's not like a team needs to totally be in win now mode, but your point is well taken. Yes, CIN and KC might be the best match-ups, and MN is rarely in total tear down mode. (My guess is they keep Buxton, so that kinda shows they want to stay somewhat relevant all the time.)

We can also include enough prospect or young player value to entice a team to give us a good, young pitcher with some team control. (They could also flip Duran, later, like at the deadline.)

Another obvious solution would  be a 3 way trade, where we send Duran to a contender, they send team C prospects, and we get a guy like Ryan or better.

I think a Duran & Sandlin/Mullins for Lodolo makes a lot of sense to both teams. That trade would then allow us to make up for the loss of Bregman and Duran via free agency. The hope that Anthony more than makes up for the loss of Duran is central to this idea, but in reality, we also have to make up for the loss of Devers, too.

Devers, Bregman and Duran were our top 3 offensive players going into 2025. Replacing them will not be easy, even if some kids step it up, bigtime. IMO, signing Alonso or Schwarber would not be enough. I'm not sure Bichette & Hoskins would be either. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins or Alonso & Suarez, but how realistic is that? We'd be over the tax line.

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

If the Sox tender Casas, Hes likely in the mix.  Especially if he’s not ready opening day.

I don’t think teams use the “can’t count on strategy” like it gets thrown around here.  If they offer him a deal, which means in many cases, they’re offering him MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, they clearly are counting on him.  The Red Sox didn’t offer Roman Anthony numerous millions of dollars so they could not rely on him being a productive hitter.  Hes one of the “two big bats” everyone says the Sox need.  Book it.

As for Casas and his injury history, not sure what folks expect.  I’m sure the Sox will sign someone to replace him, but it’s going to be unexciting, like Abraham Toro unexciting.  Players like Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell are less likely to sign MiLB deals and wait for injuries…

 

"not counting on Casas" as the FT 1Bman does not mean writing him off. Of course, if they tender him, they think he might play a key role, someday. I think he can easily beat out Yoshida as the DH, if he gets back to health and previous form.

My point was we need to plan on another FT 1BMan for 2025- not a Toro type add. Not a Casas-Romy-Campbell dice roll, although I do think they may like that "mix" enough to go one more year running the same crew out there again.

I hope we add a 1Bman PLUS a 3B/2Bman with Mayer/Romy covering the "other" slot.

Casas can be viewed as possible 1B depth or DH full-timer status, if healthy. Again, we'll run up against the what to do with Yoshida issue, and even if we trade Duran, I doubt he'll be viewed as having LF opportunities. We'd have to tarde Abreu, too, and even then, we have Garcia & Campbell as LF competition for Masa, even if we see him as a possible OF'er. (I hope not.)

I don't trade Casas. I would not non-tender him. He has .800+ and 30+ HR potential, which is just what we need most. He might be a long shot, but how many other players do we have with that potential?

Abreu?

Anthony by 2027 or 2028?

Not Story. Not Mayer. Not Yoshida or even a Yoshida/Romy platoon. Not Narvaez & Rafaela.

Maybe Jh Garcia is a long shot, but that would most likely be 2-3 years away as with Anthony.

Campbell? I doubt it.

I guess one could argue we don't need an .800 and 30+ HR guys, if we can have 9 guys batting .750-.790 with 20-25 HRs, but how likely is that?

[moonslav59]

Let's assume Story, Houck and Casas are on the opening day 40 man roster with Houck going on the 60 Day IL, shortly afterwards, I still maintain we have no major roster crunch. I'll assume Sandlin gets added but not Mullins or others.

Depending on how many players we add vs subtract, here is the starting point:

18 Pitchers: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Early, Tolle, Perales/ Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Sandlin & Hicks (could be bubble)

6 Bubble Pitchers (options): Murphy (1) Winckowski (0) Moran (0) Criswell (0) Kelly (1) Guerrero (2) My guess is we keep 1 from Murphy & Moran but not 3- 4 zero option pitchers. We may keep 1 from Kelly & Guerrero or two from the zero option guys, We keep 3 of the 3 bubble pitchers making it 20 total pitchers.

14 Everyday players (We will have at least 17 on opening day.)

2 Catchers: Narvaez & Wong

2 1B: Casas & Campbell (LF)

2 2B: Romy (1B/3B) & DHam

1 SS: Story

1 3B: Mayer

2 LF: Duran & Anthony

1 CF: Rafaela

2 RF: Abreu & Jh Garcia

1 DH: Yoshida

4 Bubble: Sogard, Eaton, Grissom, N Lowe (non tender?) I think we keep Sogard and maybe Eaton, and that would make 16 everyday players.

20 Pitchers + 16 everyday players leaves room for 4 net additions.

SP2

1B

2B/3B

??? (maybe someone on the 40, now)

Then, we add someone when Houck goes on the 60.

If we can pull off a 2 or 3 for one trade, we'll have even less of a roster crunch. (I'm thinking Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo) Some bad depth teams might like guys like Murphy, DHam, Kelly and Guerrero enough to make a 2 or 3 for 1 type trade, where we obtain just a slight upgrade player.

[moonslav59]

If we add nobody, this might be the 2026 line-up:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. L Abreu RF.

5. R Romy 2B/ L DHam

6. L Mayer 3B

7. L Casas 1B/ R Romy 1B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy/DHam, Yoshida, Sogard

SP: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Fitts, Dobbins, Bernardino, Hicks

13 on Farm + Houck to 60 Day IL

Early, Tolle, Perales, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin (Must clear waivers: Criswell, Wink & Moran) Campbell, Jh Garcia, Eaton (Grissom would have to clear waivers)

 

[Larry Cook]

Any chance bres-slow could work out a trade for eury Perez of Miami?   Seems like a much better option than alcanterra 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Any chance bres-slow could work out a trade for eury Perez of Miami?   Seems like a much better option than alcanterra 

He's 22 and has oodles of control years left. I seriously doubt it, unless we dangle our top young players. Emphasis on the "s."

[Behindenemylines]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If we add nobody, this might be the 2026 line-up:

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. L Abreu RF.

5. R Romy 2B/ L DHam

6. L Mayer 3B

7. L Casas 1B/ R Romy 1B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy/DHam, Yoshida, Sogard

SP: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Fitts, Dobbins, Bernardino, Hicks

13 on Farm + Houck to 60 Day IL

Early, Tolle, Perales, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin (Must clear waivers: Criswell, Wink & Moran) Campbell, Jh Garcia, Eaton (Grissom would have to clear waivers)

 

Your 2026 roster doesn't add anyone, but loses Bregman and Giolito. If you lose those two and add Noone this team does not make the playoffs. MUST improve starting pitcher with a true number 2, and improve the power in the lineup. 

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Your 2026 roster doesn't add anyone, but loses Bregman and Giolito. If you lose those two and add Noone this team does not make the playoffs. MUST improve starting pitcher with a true number 2, and improve the power in the lineup. 

Yes, I just presented the starting point for the winter and 2026.

If we add nobody or just a bunch of scrubs, I'll be driving the anti-JH wagon, myself. (I may not deserve it, but I will very quickly.

I don't even think adding Bregman, Hoskins and Merrill Kelly would be "enough," but I might not get rabid over it.

[mvp 78]

21 hours ago, notin said:

Casas might still in the 1b/DH picture at the moment.  But there’s been no public discussion of his future.  While I doubt it happens, he could be non-tendered.  
 

Theres also the question of his return date. Supposedly on track for the start of the season.  But that hasn’t budged from his initial timeline and felt like a boilerplate answer…

His contract isn't large enough to non-tender. While remote (IMO), he still has a ceiling that you want to hold onto. 

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His contract isn't large enough to non-tender. While remote (IMO), he still has a ceiling that you want to hold onto. 

BINGO!

Even if he ends up not playing a single game in 2026, I'd prefer rolling the dice on him than some of the bubble players mentioned beforehand.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BINGO!

Even if he ends up not playing a single game in 2026, I'd prefer rolling the dice on him than some of the bubble players mentioned beforehand.

Let him play out the year in AAA if he has to. He still has options. They've wasted time on dead end guys like Vaughn Grissom. At least they can be a little invested in Casas. Let him DH in WOO, hit some dingers and maybe work his way back.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Let him play out the year in AAA if he has to. He still has options. They've wasted time on dead end guys like Vaughn Grissom. At least they can be a little invested in Casas. Let him DH in WOO, hit some dingers and maybe work his way back.

That's how I see it. He can't be much worse than Toro, except on D. We've needed 1B depth every season since I can't remember when.

[moonslav59]

If we add two everyday players while subtracting Bregman (FA) and Duran (trade), our 13 players on the roster plus 4-6 on the 40 might be...

C: Narvaez & Wong

1B: _____ (Casas AAA)

2B: _____ Romy/DHam

3B: Mayer (Eaton AAA)

SS: Story (Sogard AAA)

LF: Anthony (Campbell AAA)

CF: Rafaela

RF: Abreu & Jh Garcia

DH: Yoshida 

That's 17 players, not counting Grissom (DFA) or a 3rd catcher.

[mvp 78]

The offseason of stagnation then? Need to go big! They already took a step back by trading Devers. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The offseason of stagnation then? Need to go big! They already took a step back by trading Devers. 

And maybe trading Devers, because of a 1 yr rental.🤭

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The offseason of stagnation then? Need to go big! They already took a step back by trading Devers. 

And, if we don't replace Bregman in kind, him too.

And, if we don't replace Gio in kind, him too.

And, if....

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, Old Red said:

And maybe trading Devers, because of a 1 yr rental.🤭

You actually think this?

[Old Red]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

You actually think this?

If the Red Sox don’t resign Bregman that’s pretty much what it turns out to be IMO.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If the Red Sox don’t resign Bregman that’s pretty much what it turns out to be IMO.

So, you believe 1 year of Breggie was the reason we dumped 8 years of Devers. Got it.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

So, you believe 1 year of Breggie was the reason we dumped 8 years of Devers. Got it.

If Bregman isn’t signed in the first place then Raffy most likely is still the Red Sox 3B. The whole Raffy fiasco to me was what led Brez to trade Raffy. Getting rid of the 8 years of Raffy’s contract was a result of the trade, and not a main reason IMO.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Let him play out the year in AAA if he has to. He still has options. They've wasted time on dead end guys like Vaughn Grissom. At least they can be a little invested in Casas. Let him DH in WOO, hit some dingers and maybe work his way back.

Maybe build up some trade value.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If Bregman isn’t signed in the first place then Raffy most likely is still the Red Sox 3B. The whole Raffy fiasco to me was what led Brez to trade Raffy. Getting rid of the 8 years of Raffy’s contract was a result of the trade, and not a main reason IMO.

Bregman was hired to play 2b, its just that raffys shoulder didnt heal enough over break and wasnt ready to start the season in a position where hed have to throw.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Maybe build up some trade value.

He would have to. Right now there is zero. He could make it back to MLB and either find a spot here as DH or get spun elsewhere.