A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[mvp 78]

On 10/11/2025 at 9:08 PM, moonslav59 said:

I think Mayer would be a plus defender at SS, if he can stay healthy. It's harder and more expensive to get a SS than 3Bman or 2Bman, so it makes sense to have Mayer at SS, if Story moves to 2B or bolts.

Would Brez take a risk on the Japanese basher at 3B, assuming Bregman bolts?

3B Murakami

SS Mayer (Story)

2B Story (Romy)

1B Casas (Romy)

The issue with Mayer is health. I was hoping for one year where he put it together, but we still haven't seen it. He'd be the best defensive option for SS in '26. Maybe they could move him to 3b down the line, but he's a very smooth defender right now. Story had a lot of shortcomings to his game and needs to be moved to 2b.

[Old Red]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I doubt they plan on having Mayer on the bench.  I think if Bregman is resigned it negates the need to trade for Marte. If that's the case, you're trading one of the outfielders for a #2.  That comes without saying in the absence of a Bregman resigning I'd totally bite on a Marte for Duran deal. 

1B is funky.  I want to believe in Casas, and I do, I think if he can come back and stay on the field he's eventually going to hit consistently (career .800 ops despite his struggles).  I think he would have last year, as he got off to a slow start and then just got injured. He has 4 years of team control left and he has the potential to be the middle of the order bat they need without going out and spending $40 million or emptying the farm YET how long can we wait around for this kid? This was two years in a row he couldn't stay on the field, maybe it's a fluke...maybe it's not. 

I think the Sox could eliminate this problem if they were to find a way to get rid of Yoshida.  If you do that you can then get a guy like Hoskins like you suggested and if Casas stays healthy and hits then you got your DH. Actually the more I think about that the more I like it.  Doesn't have to be Hoskins, I would love for them to go big and get Alonso but I'm not going to get my hopes up this offseason. 

I agree on Mayer that there is NO plan for him having just a bench role next year, and if healthy he will have a starting role anywhere from 3B over to 2B. I would hope it would be at SS with Story sliding over to 2B regardless of what Bregman does. Of course it’s not a certainty that Story stays either. Casas is a different case altogether. If the Red Sox are counting on him, which is far from a certainty I don’t see another expensive 1B being signed, but they definitely need a plan B after a revolving door at 1B the last 3 years.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Brez wouldn't commit to Casas at last week's presser, and because 1B is an obvious position for any team's power outage, we have to expect an upgrade there... or at least a platoon bat.

But when you really get down to it, injury-prone ballplayers are a myth; they're just ballplayers. Over-30 guys like Story and Bregman get hurt all the time, but look at all the young guys who missed significant time on the IL: Casas, Abreu, Mayer, Anthony (it should make Rafaela detractors appreciate his durable wiry frame).

Bottom line: don't be afraid to spend big again for the best available talent -- so what if Bichette has a bad knee today, if it heals and he's ready to lead the league in hits again next year. 

The Red Sox window is now -- so fortify the line-up around around your good young pitchers... before they all blow out their elbows.

 

 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Brez wouldn't commit to Casas at last week's presser, and because 1B is an obvious position for any team's power outage, we have to expect an upgrade there... or at least a platoon bat.

His injury is VERY serious IMO. I don't see him starting in MLB. It could take him a long time to get back. There's a chance he's never back to normal. I know we were told by Casas's camp that he's progressing and will be ready for Opening Day, but I'm taking it with a huge grain of salt. He generates a ton of power from his lower half and that injury may dramatically alter that. There's a history of guys with that injury having shortened careers and ultimately retiring because of that one injury.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His injury is VERY serious IMO. I don't see him starting in MLB. It could take him a long time to get back. There's a chance he's never back to normal. I know we were told by Casas's camp that he's progressing and will be ready for Opening Day, but I'm taking it with a huge grain of salt. He generates a ton of power from his lower half and that injury may dramatically alter that. There's a history of guys with that injury having shortened careers and ultimately retiring because of that one injury.

I was even skeptical he'd ever be the same again after the oblique injury from swinging the bat, unless he can somehow change his body and swing.

I dunno, now Anthony is going through an oblique injury -- which we all saw on TV really start to disable him after a swing.

The only hope is that some guys recover -- somehow -- and are as good as Shea Langeliers...

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

His injury is VERY serious IMO. I don't see him starting in MLB. It could take him a long time to get back. There's a chance he's never back to normal. I know we were told by Casas's camp that he's progressing and will be ready for Opening Day, but I'm taking it with a huge grain of salt. He generates a ton of power from his lower half and that injury may dramatically alter that. There's a history of guys with that injury having shortened careers and ultimately retiring because of that one injury.

Being big of body doesn’t help either.

[moonslav59]

I think E Suarez for 1B and back-up 3B makes a ton of sense. We need a power bat and corner IF help, even if Bregman stays.

He's old, so he won't get a long deal- something JH might go for.

Speaking of older players and shorter deals, maybe we sign Merrill Kelly as our 2/3 SP'er to take Gio's place.

I'm not sure JH forks over enough money for Bregman, Suarez and Kelly, but those three would help a lot. Trade Duran and others for more pitching or a 2Bman and call it a winter.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Another example on how the Sox end up with all the leftovers.

NOT!

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting to see how serious JH & Co are about boosting this team into the next level. We clearly have opened the window, but we also have some major flaws that need fixing.

We apparently made a serious play for Soto, although some of us doubt it was for real, but this winter would be a good time to show the seriousness we need from the top brass. Players like Alonso, Schwarber, Tucker and certainly Suarez won't cost anywhere near what Soto got or what we reportedly offered. IMO, it's time to put up or shut up. 

I know our OF is loaded, so signing Tucker seems outlandish, but we could trade two of our OF'er to make room. Of course, it would be easier to just sign one of the other 3, despite their defensive issues and our current logjam at DH. Sign one to play 1B, and I doubt any of them are worse than Casas at 1B.

I'd also see us add a second bat (2B or 3B) and a #2 SP'er. We can trade for one- maybe two, but signing 2 makes more sense.

Just get it done! Add 3 high quality players and skimp on the rest.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It will be interesting to see how serious JH & Co are about boosting this team into the next level. We clearly have opened the window, but we also have some major flaws that need fixing.

We apparently made a serious play for Soto, although some of us doubt it was for real, but this winter would be a good time to show the seriousness we need from the top brass. Players like Alonso, Schwarber, Tucker and certainly Suarez won't cost anywhere near what Soto got or what we reportedly offered. IMO, it's time to put up or shut up. 

I know our OF is loaded, so signing Tucker seems outlandish, but we could trade two of our OF'er to make room. Of course, it would be easier to just sign one of the other 3, despite their defensive issues and our current logjam at DH. Sign one to play 1B, and I doubt any of them are worse than Casas at 1B.

I'd also see us add a second bat (2B or 3B) and a #2 SP'er. We can trade for one- maybe two, but signing 2 makes more sense.

Just get it done! Add 3 high quality players and skimp on the rest.

I don’t believe the Red Sox ever made a serious play for Soto, the Yam Man, or even Monty a few years ago. Just like there haven’t been much of an effort at the trade deadline the past few years. Full throttle, or stuck throttle?

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe the Red Sox ever made a serious play for Soto, the Yam Man, or even Monty a few years ago. Just like there haven’t been much of an effort at the trade deadline the past few years. Full throttle, or stuck throttle?

The last serious deadline moves was Schwarber in 2021. That's a long time ago.

It's hard to know about the seriousness of the Soto & Yamamoto offers. It could be that their offers were legit, and they just grossly misjudged what the winning offers would be, of they knew all along they would fall way short, and it was a  sham to fool the fans into thinking they were not going cheap, yet again.

I'm not sure what to believe. I've said I'm not expecting JH to spend large and long, despite the Devers extension, and his recent trade just further throws into doubt JH's spending intentions. The Bregman signing was a bold step up on the "large" side of a FA signing, and the Story signing hit the "long" button, but it's been a very long time since the last Large & Long signing. The Bregman signing was offset by the Devers trade, in my view, so I'm are back to where I was before the Devers extension & Bregman signing.

I'm not sure it will take 5 or 6 years to land Alonso or Schwarber, and no was does Suarez get 5 years, but Tucker probably will. We will likely go another winter without a large and long deal. I'll be more surprised if we do one than if we don't.

[mvp 78]

 

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, Old Red said:

I don’t believe the Red Sox ever made a serious play for Soto, the Yam Man, or even Monty a few years ago. Just like there haven’t been much of an effort at the trade deadline the past few years. Full throttle, or stuck throttle?

Soto himself said they come for him hard. 

I get that it is hard to trust these guys after the thrift of the past half a decade, but I think we can put this one to bed. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

Soto himself said they come for him hard. 

I get that it is hard to trust these guys after the thrift of the past half a decade, but I think we can put this one to bed. 

Interest 👑

[moonslav59]

Bregman opts out, as expected. He may still re-sign under different terms.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Soto himself said they come for him hard. 

I get that it is hard to trust these guys after the thrift of the past half a decade, but I think we can put this one to bed. 

The Soto money ended up being insane, so it's hard to say we made an offer we knew would be beat. I think we felt we had a chance and made a legit offer that was way more than the record Devers contract.

That being said, the Devers trade and Bregman opt out keeps me firmly in the "I'll believe it when I see it" mode, when it comes to expecting a large and long deal, anytime soon.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Bregman opts out, as expected. He may still re-sign under different terms.

3/90 is about as far as I'd go TBH.

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

3/90 is about as far as I'd go TBH.

Agree, and definitely not any longer than 3 years.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

3/90 is about as far as I'd go TBH.

I was going to say the exact same amount and years, and feel even that is a pretty gross overpay. He was owed $80M/2, so offering $10M for the third year is a bit of a slap in the face that he will surely decline. $110M/4 is borderline slapping his face.

As bad a defender as Suarez is, I'm leaning towards him. We need the power and being a RHB helps, too. I'd like to see him signed to play 1B and be Mayer's back-up at 3B, which could very much come into play. Needing to use Toro, when Breggie went down, last season exposed a big depth hole, despite his hitting well out of the gate.

Using Mayer at 3B solidifies the need for a real 2Bman. We've let that position go on sucking for far too long. A trade for K Marte or a J Polanco signing (both switch hitters with decent splits.)

That still leave the big need for a number 2 pitcher via trade or signings. I'm not big on any pitcher FA signings, this winter, so maybe trading for a pitcher and signing Suarez & Polanco is the best we can hope for. I suppose we could sign Merrill Kelly and trade for K Marte, as the plan A/B.

Suarez, K Marte, Kelly

Suarez, Polanco, Joe Ryan (H Greene or Lodolo- worst case- M Keller)

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was going to say the exact same amount and years, and feel even that is a pretty gross overpay. He was owed $80M/2, so offering $10M for the third year is a bit of a slap in the face that he will surely decline. $110M/4 is borderline slapping his face.

As bad a defender as Suarez is, I'm leaning towards him. We need the power and being a RHB helps, too. I'd like to see him signed to play 1B and be Mayer's back-up at 3B, which could very much come into play. Needing to use Toro, when Breggie went down, last season exposed a big depth hole, despite his hitting well out of the gate.

Using Mayer at 3B solidifies the need for a real 2Bman. We've let that position go on sucking for far too long. A trade for K Marte or a J Polanco signing (both switch hitters with decent splits.)

That still leave the big need for a number 2 pitcher via trade or signings. I'm not big on any pitcher FA signings, this winter, so maybe trading for a pitcher and signing Suarez & Polanco is the best we can hope for. I suppose we could sign Merrill Kelly and trade for K Marte, as the plan A/B.

Suarez, K Marte, Kelly

Suarez, Polanco, Joe Ryan (H Greene or Lodolo- worst case- M Keller)

If Okamoto is posted, Sox could grab him for 3b. 

SS would go to Mayer.

Story goes to 2B.

Sign Hoskins for 1B as Alonso is too expensive.

Masa stays fulltime DH.

OF Rafaela, Anthony and Duran or Abreu (whichever isn't traded of the last two)

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Okamoto is posted, Sox could grab him for 3b. 

SS would go to Mayer.

Story goes to 2B.

Sign Hoskins for 1B as Alonso is too expensive.

Masa stays fulltime DH.

OF Rafaela, Anthony and Duran or Abreu (whichever isn't traded of the last two)

I do not think that's a big enough boost to the offense. Okamoto is largely unknown and could be a push with the Bregman loss. Hoskins should outhit a Lowe-Casas combo, but maybe not. He would certainly beat the overall 2025 Sox 1B numbers, but he does add a lot of power.

I'd still push hard for Suarez at 1B over Hoskins or Naylor.

I see Casas supplanting Masa at DH, at some point.

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Okamoto is posted, Sox could grab him for 3b. 

SS would go to Mayer.

Story goes to 2B.

Sign Hoskins for 1B as Alonso is too expensive.

Masa stays fulltime DH.

OF Rafaela, Anthony and Duran or Abreu (whichever isn't traded of the last two)

Seen that movie before, and it ends with us going into the playoffs with Masa as our cleanup hitter and  second half of hte lineup full of noodlebats.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do not think that's a big enough boost to the offense. Okamoto is largely unknown and could be a push with the Bregman loss. Hoskins should outhit a Lowe-Casas combo, but maybe not. He would certainly beat the overall 2025 Sox 1B numbers, but he does add a lot of power.

I'd still push hard for Suarez at 1B over Hoskins or Naylor.

I see Casas supplanting Masa at DH, at some point.

For me, I'd want a good defensive 3b and Okamoto has the defense, plus power potential. Hoskins also adds power at 1b at a good price point. I don't believe Casas will be ready, but he could come back at some point, show he's healthy in a platoon and get dealt. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

Seen that movie before, and it ends with us going into the playoffs with Masa as our cleanup hitter and  second half of hte lineup full of noodlebats.

Masa had an 1143 OPS in the postseason. Anthony was on the IL. Okamoto and Hoskins are two power bats that weren't in the lineup. Where is the blame being laid? There is zero chance Brezzz is turning over the lineup more than that. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For me, I'd want a good defensive 3b and Okamoto has the defense, plus power potential. Hoskins also adds power at 1b at a good price point. I don't believe Casas will be ready, but he could come back at some point, show he's healthy in a platoon and get dealt. 

I don't disagree on this assessment, but I'm not sure we improve the poser all that much from our corner IF.

We got 38 HRs from our corner IF in 2015. That is horrific! Hoskins turns 33 in March and his power has been in steep decline for 3 years:

.283 in '21

.216 in '22

.205 in '23

.179 in '25

Okamoto might give us the power boost we need, but losing Bregman and adding these two seems to fall short.

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Masa had an 1143 OPS in the postseason. Anthony was on the IL. Okamoto and Hoskins are two power bats that weren't in the lineup. Where is the blame being laid? There is zero chance Brezzz is turning over the lineup more than that. 

A 1143 BA on how many at-bats for Masa? Anthony is a ground-ball hitter.  Okamoto, I know nothing about.  Hoskins just got benched and Bregman just opted out of 40m AAV.  Replacing guys who opt out of lucrative deals because they can get more and thinking we'll come out ahead replacing them with guys who didnt make their teams playoffs roster last year feels very hopium to me.

Not arguing with you, but just expressing my thoughts.  Maybe Brezzzz shouldnt have blown the budget on guys he could have kept cheap.  

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't disagree on this assessment, but I'm not sure we improve the poser all that much from our corner IF.

We got 38 HRs from our corner IF in 2015. That is horrific! Hoskins turns 33 in March and his power has been in steep decline for 3 years:

.283 in '21

.216 in '22

.205 in '23

.179 in '25

Okamoto might give us the power boost we need, but losing Bregman and adding these two seems to fall short.

Tell me about Bregman's power. When was the last time his ISO was above 200? 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Tell me about Bregman's power. When was the last time his ISO was above 200? 

That's my point. Our corner IF power was weak. Hoskins just about even out Breggie's loss. Hoskins was at .205 at age 31 in 2024. He missed 2023. I'm not seeing a grand improvement.

The Japanese guy might be a great get. I'm not against that idea. I said I did not disagree with your assessment.

I think we need a bigger power boost and would prefer more Known talent.

Hoskins and Okamoto might be enough. Maybe include Mayer in a trade and get KMarte, too? I don't thinkw e can afford all three and still get the pitcher I want.

 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's my point. Our corner IF power was weak. Hoskins just about even out Breggie's loss. Hoskins was at .205 at age 31 in 2024. He missed 2023. I'm not seeing a grand improvement.

The Japanese guy might be a great get. I'm not against that idea. I said I did not disagree with your assessment.

I think we need a bigger power boost and would prefer more Known talent.

Hoskins and Okamoto might be enough. Maybe include Mayer in a trade and get KMarte, too? I don't thinkw e can afford all three and still get the pitcher I want.

 

Hoskins saves the Sox a lot of $$$ and has a swing tailor made for Fenway. 

Tyler O'Neill's ISO in '22, '23 and '25 was under 200 but popped at Fenway.