Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[JoeBrady]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's still 7th percentile... Do you think he's going to improve another 66%? 

Does he have to?

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

2023+2024 to 2025

OBP: .275> .295 (+7%)

OPS+ 84> 95 (+13%)

BB%: 2.9> 4.8% (+66%)

K%: 27.1>19.9% (27% better)

Hard Hit%: 24.2>30.4% (+26%)

 

Amazing how much you guys glaze these stats as a CFer. It’s not that I dislike him, I like him, and would rather trade Harrison and a couple fringe 40 pitchers….. But to get Paredes, I think we will lose an OFer, and I would rather trade CR than Wilyer or JD…..

He is a good player, even though he batted .189 last half of 2025. I just don’t think he will ever be what JD is offensively…. So many on here prop him up for a couple timely hits. I think he is by far the least valuable outfielder based on other deficiencies in the lineup. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, UtahSox said:

Amazing how much you guys glaze these stats as a CFer. It’s not that I dislike him, I like him, and would rather trade Harrison and a couple fringe 40 pitchers….. But to get Paredes, I think we will lose an OFer, and I would rather trade CR than Wilyer or JD…..

He is a good player, even though he batted .189 last half of 2025. I just don’t think he will ever be what JD is offensively…. So many on here prop him up for a couple timely hits. I think he is by far the least valuable outfielder based on other deficiencies in the lineup. 

I have shown high concern about Ceddanne's offense and still worry. 

He's shown decent growth form his first 2 partial seasons, but on some of the stats I used, he was at historical lows, so improvement should be viewed within that context.

As MVP pointed out, he moved from bottom of the barrell to bottom 2%, so it's not really celebration time.

He swings at bad pitches, and sometimes he hits them pretty well. He needs to improve more on offense to not be viewed and a minus in the line-up. Note: his OPS was very near the league norm in 2025. That's not bad, at his age.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I think he is by far the least valuable outfielder based on other deficiencies in the lineup. 

If you're basing it solely on offense, then Duran and Abreu have slight edges over Rafaela.

But the CBO has stated to the press that the Red Sox are being built on pitching and defense.

Considering the current sinkhole in the infield, that makes the best centerfielder in baseball all the more valuable.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If you're basing it solely on offense, then Duran and Abreu have slight edges over Rafaela.

I think the advantage on offense is significantly more than "slight," but I'd keep Rafaela over both of those other 2. Stellar D in a tough CF position and 6 years of control vs 3 and 4 years.

OPS+ 2025/career

116/118 Abreu

114/114 Duran

95/89 Rafaela

[moonslav59]

Jose Ramirez gets extension from CLE to age 39!

His current contract was restructured with significant deferrals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think the advantage on offense is significantly more than "slight," but I'd keep Rafaela over both of those other 2. Stellar D in a tough CF position and 6 years of control vs 3 and 4 years.

OPS+ 2025/career

116/118 Abreu

114/114 Duran

95/89 Rafaela

If parsing semantics, then I base my opinion looking at several statistics -- not just OPS+ (which combines OBP and Slug).

Abreu had the most home run pop, with 22 HRs in 51 less games than Rafaela, who hit 16. And yet, Ceddanne only struckout 16 more times in 170 more at bats...

He also had twice as many doubles, 4 triples to 0, and 20 stolen bases to 4 for Abreu.

Runners-in-scoring position: Abreu .262 BA, .895 OPS; Rafaela .242, .670

High leverage: Abreu .226, .774; Rafaela .281, .808

Batting average: Rafaela hit .249, Abreu .247.

Outta slight, man

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If parsing semantics, then I base my opinion looking at several statistics -- not just OPS+ (which combines OBP and Slug).

Abreu had the most home run pop, with 22 HRs in 51 less games than Rafaela, who hit 16. And yet, Ceddanne only struckout 16 more times in 170 more at bats...

He also had twice as many doubles, 4 triples to 0, and 20 stolen bases to 4 for Abreu.

Runners-in-scoring position: Abreu .262 BA, .895 OPS; Rafaela .242, .670

High leverage: Abreu .226, .774; Rafaela .281, .808

Batting average: Rafaela hit .249, Abreu .247.

Outta slight, man

I gotta say, if you think Abreu is just slightly better at hitting, I'm going to strongly disagree.

Rafaela had a lot of key hits, no doubt. He improved over 2023-2024, as Abreu did not.

I still have hope that Rafaela can hit .750 or higher, someday.

I have confidence Abreu can hit .800 or even .850, soon, perhaps 2026. I also think Abreu can and will hit 30 HRs in the next year or two. 

Bot are GG OF'er in very difficult Fenway positions. I wanna keep 'em both. I like them both so much, I'm willing to trade perhaps our 2nd or 3rd best offensive weapon (to Roman & maybe Contreras), Duran, to keep them both.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Jose Ramirez gets extension from CLE to age 39!

His current contract was restructured with significant deferrals.

Good for everyone.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Good for everyone.

Man, he woulda looked nice in a Sox uniform, but if anyone is ever untouchable, it's Jose.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I gotta say, if you think Abreu is just slightly better at hitting, I'm going to strongly disagree.

Rafaela had a lot of key hits, no doubt. He improved over 2023-2024, as Abreu did not.

I still have hope that Rafaela can hit .750 or higher, someday.

I have confidence Abreu can hit .800 or even .850, soon, perhaps 2026. I also think Abreu can and will hit 30 HRs in the next year or two. 

Bot are GG OF'er in very difficult Fenway positions. I wanna keep 'em both. I like them both so much, I'm willing to trade perhaps our 2nd or 3rd best offensive weapon (to Roman & maybe Contreras), Duran, to keep them both.

Your opinion is noted, and once again you only focus on OPS.

Rafaela never walks, so he won't "outhit" many teammates in OPS, but he is the only returning Red Sox -- besides Yoshida -- who had a K-rate under 20% last year. 

And here's the thing: even though Ceddanne made better contact than Abreu, and Duran, and Story, and Anthony, etc... I'm not even saying he's good. Just how bad Boston is at batting.

[JoeBrady]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Man, he woulda looked nice in a Sox uniform, but if anyone is ever untouchable, it's Jose.

Some guys, no matter how much I like them, are hands-off.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Your opinion is noted, and once again you only focus on OPS.

Rafaela never walks, so he won't "outhit" many teammates in OPS, but he is the only returning Red Sox -- besides Yoshida -- who had a K-rate under 20% last year. 

And here's the thing: even though Ceddanne made better contact than Abreu, and Duran, and Story, and Anthony, etc... I'm not even saying he's good. Just how bad Boston is at batting.

No, I don't only focus on OPS, although OPS does incorporate OBP and SLG, which are two very telling numbers on batting.

BA is important, but I also look beyond just 2025, which I won't add, that "once again, you only focus on." Abreu has a better career BA. Ceddanne does steal more bases, so that gives him a plus on offense. He was closer splits than Abreu, which is nice, too.

Career per 650:

.256  26  98 Abreu (.326 OBP and .465 SLG) 12 SB and 39 2B+3B

.247  16  75 Rafaela (.284 OBP and .401 SLG) 22 SB and 37 2B+3B

Sorry for not seeing this as close. I just don't. I'm not looking at just OPS.

How about wRC+ since 2022?

116 Duran

115 Abreu

86 Rafaela

2025 only:

140 Anthony

111 Duran

110 Abreu

91 Rafaela

 

 

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Some guys, no matter how much I like them, are hands-off.

I'd say Anthony & Crochet are our guys.

[Michigan Adam2]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Your opinion is noted, and once again you only focus on OPS.

Rafaela never walks, so he won't "outhit" many teammates in OPS, but he is the only returning Red Sox -- besides Yoshida -- who had a K-rate under 20% last year. 

And here's the thing: even though Ceddanne made better contact than Abreu, and Duran, and Story, and Anthony, etc... I'm not even saying he's good. Just how bad Boston is at batting.

And yet you talk about k rate as if it matters if they are not getting on base. Yes a k is slightly worse than an out that advances a runner, but it is not better than a simple fly out with nobody on base. A walk on the other hand is just as good as a hit, and the ability to manage the zone to get the walks also gets the better pitches to hit.  Ops is not everything for sure, but obp  is a VERY important indicator of how strong a hitter is. I value it probably more than most. I hate the 220 hitters with 30 Homer's that are considered good hitters. I'd rather the 330 hitter with 4000 obp and 12 homers. 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say Anthony & Crochet are our guys.

I think this is right.

The reporters said teams called about Mayer, Abreau and Duran. Yet bres-slow did not move any of them. 
 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BA is important, but I also look beyond just 2025

... which I understand, but did not include in my original post comparing these players from 2025. You replied with "career" stats. 

Rafaela, Abreu and even technically Duran have only played as starting regulars the past two seasons -- not much as far as careers go -- but my focus was just on the past season when at least the first two guys continued to improve their all-around games.

We could go back and forth cherry picking stats to justify opinions, but the fact is that Duran-Rafaela-Abreu are the Top 3 returning Red Sox in RBIs for '24-25, and all three have way too much swing-and-miss in their at bats.

I only defend Ceddanne on this forum where he's often the target of suckitude, instead of many teammates who in reality just suck a little less.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Michigan Adam2 said:

And yet you talk about k rate as if it matters if they are not getting on base. Yes a k is slightly worse than an out that advances a runner, but it is not better than a simple fly out with nobody on base. A walk on the other hand is just as good as a hit, and the ability to manage the zone to get the walks also gets the better pitches to hit.  Ops is not everything for sure, but obp  is a VERY important indicator of how strong a hitter is. I value it probably more than most. I hate the 220 hitters with 30 Homer's that are considered good hitters. I'd rather the 330 hitter with 4000 obp and 12 homers. 

I'm with you on most of this, but have always been ambivalent of a walk being "as good as a hit" -- it is as good as far as reaching base and not making an out, but not always as good at advancing preceding baserunners (a walk only moves teammates one base at a time, while hits can advance guys 1, 2 or 3 bases). 

The other basic thing a walk does is drive up pitch counts, and help expedite exits from the mound... though nowadays, fresh arms that throw a hundred are salivating to come in everywhere. Maybe it's better to swing at something you can do damage with from a tired arm, rather than wait for the perfect pitch that never comes... but now here comes Mason Miller instead.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

I think this is right.

The reporters said teams called about Mayer, Abreau and Duran. Yet bres-slow did not move any of them. 
 

Those three might not be untouchable, but you still have to get what you think is a plus, right?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

... which I understand, but did not include in my original post comparing these players from 2025. You replied with "career" stats.

I replied with OPS and homers.

You replied about using just OPS.

I replied with career BA, HRs, 2B+3B, RBI, OBP, SLG and the one area Rafaela won- SBs.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I only defend Ceddanne on this forum where he's often the target of suckitude, instead of many teammates who in reality just suck a little less.

Rafaela is my favorite player. I spent half the summer's game threads taking Fred off the wall on Ceddanne. (It didnt work.)

I'd rather trade Duran and then Abreu before him.

He's younger, too, so using career OPS should put him at a disadvantage.

 

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Those three might not be untouchable, but you still have to get what you think is a plus, right?

Kansas City would not part with ragans for Duran. 
the dodgers would not part with a package of pitching prospects plus included rushing for abreau. 
Arizona wanted Mayer and tolle for Marte and bres-slow would not do it!  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Kansas City would not part with ragans for Duran. 
the dodgers would not part with a package of pitching prospects plus included rushing for abreau. 
Arizona wanted Mayer and tolle for Marte and bres-slow would not do it!  

Ragans has had major injury issues.

Duran for a catcher, when we have Narvaez? I can see wanting something else.

The Tolle & Mayer offer is something I did not hear. That's kind of a close call, too. I love KMarte, and he does fill a big need, but including Marte forced yet another trade for a 3Bman. Maybe Duran for Paredes and King, and we have Marte and Paredes. I don't know.

Let's see what goes down. Maybe waiting works for the best,

The teams that missed out on Tucker & Bellinger might up their offers for Duran.

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To take a step up in the standings -- let's say 90 plus wins in an AL East where the Jays and O's have already fortified themselves this winter -- the Red Sox simply cannot regress on offense. 

Even if Contreras hits like Devers, and Anthony hits like '25 Bregman over an entire healthy season, what other batter do you think can emerge with an even better 2026?

Possible keys: Duran or Story revert to pre-'25 glory... Abreu finally gets what Tom Werner wants to see: 400 at bats... Yoshida has WBC stats in MLB... or Casas makes a comeback with half a season like the second half of his rookie year.

Those are all possibilities, but my biggest hope is Campbell or Mayer can do in the majors what they recently did in their best runs in the minors... KC may never repeat his 2024, but the odds of a Minor League Player of the Year becoming at least a viable big leaguer are on his side.

Mayer's 43-game stint in Worcester last year pro-rates close to these 162-game stats: 35 HRs, 160 RBI, .271 BA, .818 OPS... (at least in WOO). I vote for Marcelo.

[FredLynn]

Jan 25. Still no help for the offense. What a crap franchise. I don't think we are going to get anyone we are "interested in". This is it. We are stuck with these bums this year. Again.

[notin]

On 1/23/2026 at 5:36 PM, UtahSox said:

Amazing how much you guys glaze these stats as a CFer. It’s not that I dislike him, I like him, and would rather trade Harrison and a couple fringe 40 pitchers….. But to get Paredes, I think we will lose an OFer, and I would rather trade CR than Wilyer or JD…..

He is a good player, even though he batted .189 last half of 2025. I just don’t think he will ever be what JD is offensively…. So many on here prop him up for a couple timely hits. I think he is by far the least valuable outfielder based on other deficiencies in the lineup. 

Using WAR as a guideline, he was almost identical in value to Duran last year…

Duran: 4.7 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR

Rafaela: 4.7 bWAR, 3.7 fWAR

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

To take a step up in the standings -- let's say 90 plus wins in an AL East where the Jays and O's have already fortified themselves this winter -- the Red Sox simply cannot regress on offense. 

Even if Contreras hits like Devers, and Anthony hits like '25 Bregman over an entire healthy season, what other batter do you think can emerge with an even better 2026?

Possible keys: Duran or Story revert to pre-'25 glory... Abreu finally gets what Tom Werner wants to see: 400 at bats... Yoshida has WBC stats in MLB... or Casas makes a comeback with half a season like the second half of his rookie year.

Those are all possibilities, but my biggest hope is Campbell or Mayer can do in the majors what they recently did in their best runs in the minors... KC may never repeat his 2024, but the odds of a Minor League Player of the Year becoming at least a viable big leaguer are on his side.

Mayer's 43-game stint in Worcester last year pro-rates close to these 162-game stats: 35 HRs, 160 RBI, .271 BA, .818 OPS... (at least in WOO). I vote for Marcelo.

The Jays fortified themselves?

They lost a 3.5 bWAR infielder but added a pitcher coming off a 1.1 bWAR season.

The Sox lost a 3.5 bWAR infielder but replaced him with a pitcher coming off a 4.7 bWAR season.  Why isn’t that fortifying anything?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Jan 25. Still no help for the offense. What a crap franchise. I don't think we are going to get anyone we are "interested in". This is it. We are stuck with these bums this year. Again.

We need a big bat, but why say "no help?"

Contreras offers a solid solution to a 1B issue we have had for a long time. Sure, we've had brief moments of competency at 1B, or someone who can hit well but sucks on D, but we added "help."

It's just not enough.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

The Jays fortified themselves?

They lost a 3.5 bWAR infielder but added a pitcher coming off a 1.1 bWAR season.

The Sox lost a 3.5 bWAR infielder but replaced him with a pitcher coming off a 4.7 bWAR season.  Why isn’t that fortifying anything?

It seems like the criteria changes when looking at other teams.

I've mentioned how Sox fans have zero faith in any of our pitchers who are injured or projected to start the season on the IL, but somehow highly value the Yankee rotation, knowing Rodon, Cole and Schmidt.

The O's have greatly improved their line-up, but their pitching staff scares nobody.

Maybe Cease rebounds and 35 year old Gausman has another good year in him,  but god forbid anyone to expect the 36 year old Sonny Gray to have a good year.

To me, if we add a high quality infielder without opening up a new hole, we will be close enough to even or better than every other AL team.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Tolle & Mayer offer is something I did not hear. That's kind of a close call, too.

I don't consider that close whatsoever.  Marte has averaged 128 GS over the past five years, and only one seasons > 137 GS.  There is a decent chance we only get 2 good years, 2 mediocre, and 3 poor years.  And trading Mayer for an infielder does nothing to address our need for an infielder.