Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But is the prettiest girl at the dance the same one you want to marry (as long as we're going down the analogy hole)?  In a RW example, almost everyone will say that Alonso will out-perform Contreras over the next two years.  But a fair amount of people would expect Contreras to have a similar WAR/$$$ value, and most people won't like the final three years of Alonso's deal.

I'm not "almost everyone." 

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree and I agree.  I don't they'd have beaten the O's offer at that price regardless of Bregman.  And I think you have to have a number not to exceed.  If you think a player is not worth one penny more than $165M/5, you can't go to $175M/5.  If that's your thought process, then your not-to-exceed price should be $175M.

When you buy a house, it is the same deal.  You're going to miss out on some properties.  But other opportunities will present themselves.  Or maybe you'll call their bluff and you'll be right.

The problem is that the housing supply is closer to unlimited than MLB free agency. If you are trying to buy a house in only one neighborhood and one neighborhood only, you could be SOL over and over again if the bidding is competitive and you never go above your budget. That's where the Sox are at in FA IMO. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

When you wake up, you'll need to translate that to English.

I've done my share of posting while imbibing, so who am I to judge? That's usually limited to gamethreads though.

[drewski6]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

When you wake up, you'll need to translate that to English.

"You guys are getting straight clowned, by 1945 strolls out of bed and clowns all of you Old Red."

What this means, nerd, is that you may have noticed, that Im generally new school in my sports beliefs, because I stay up on trends and usually seek to figure out why sports evolve, and usually when they do - they evolve for a reason.

So youve probably seen me talk condescendingly about what I consider to be "old school" outlooks.  Old Red and I have disagreed on what I perceive to be some extensions of this, e.g. positional versatility vs having a true 2b or true 3b or true 1b. Which is fine, we dont have to agree on everything.

But I was impressed to see that Old Red has the clarity and wisdom to not talk absolute nonsense like you do on here literally every day.  Everything out of Joe Bradys mouth is wrong/foolish/stupid/fascist:

JB: We cant compare RS offer to Bregman because we dont know the deferrals

Actuality: Its well known that the RS offer was loser base and contained significantly more deferrals than Cubs so we do know the RS offer was weaker

JB: Billie Eilish pretends to be gay for attention and thats why she told a room for billionaires what they wanted to here
Actuality: this makes negative sense and the context was that Billie Eilish had just told a bunch of billionaires that billionaires suck
JB: Well if it wasnt for billionaires , I wouldnt have my precious cell phone
(what?)

On a day when a journalist was killed in a terror attack- JB: Im incapable of having sympathy for snowflake journalists

In this particular case:
JB: Nobody knows what happened
Actuality: AJ P , Buster Olney, Tyler Milliken, Jared Carabis, and Alex Speier are all giving a similar account

Its weird because its all out there, but I s'pose that Joe Clownboy Brady has buffooned this place up so much that people have forgotten how to google

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem is that the housing supply is closer to unlimited than MLB free agency. If you are trying to buy a house in only one neighborhood and one neighborhood only, you could be SOL over and over again if the bidding is competitive and you never go above your budget. That's where the Sox are at in FA IMO. 

zzzzzzzzz
 

please refrain from going down his rabbit holes, you must have realized how boring this post was when you made it. You prob almost didnt hit send.  You do a good job managing this forum, but JoeBradys lameness is going to kill it

Nobody wants to analyze or digest  joe bradys bad real estate advice. The dude is still working in his 80s cuz he has to and acts like hes mr accomplished.

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

But is the prettiest girl at the dance the same one you want to marry 

JB marries an ugly women and pretends its by choice

[drewski6]

My girls a smokeshow

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

 Is this postseason stats only? 

Only the post season numbers are shown, so...

[moonslav59]

MLB announced the trade deadline for 2026 will be Monday August 3rd at 5 pm ET.

Expect no major Sox trades.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

How many years is this for? Is this postseason stats only? 

Someone asked the question about whether it applied to this year's playoffs, so it is only for one year.  I can do 2024 as well to see if it is a pattern.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

"You guys are getting straight clowned, by 1945 strolls out of bed and clowns all of you Old Red."

What this means, nerd, is that you may have noticed, that Im generally new school in my sports beliefs, because I stay up on trends and usually seek to figure out why sports evolve, and usually when they do - they evolve for a reason.

So youve probably seen me talk condescendingly about what I consider to be "old school" outlooks.  Old Red and I have disagreed on what I perceive to be some extensions of this, e.g. positional versatility vs having a true 2b or true 3b or true 1b. Which is fine, we dont have to agree on everything.

But I was impressed to see that Old Red has the clarity and wisdom to not talk absolute nonsense like you do on here literally every day.  Everything out of Joe Bradys mouth is wrong/foolish/stupid/fascist:

JB: We cant compare RS offer to Bregman because we dont know the deferrals

Actuality: Its well known that the RS offer was loser base and contained significantly more deferrals than Cubs so we do know the RS offer was weaker

JB: Billie Eilish pretends to be gay for attention and thats why she told a room for billionaires what they wanted to here
Actuality: this makes negative sense and the context was that Billie Eilish had just told a bunch of billionaires that billionaires suck
JB: Well if it wasnt for billionaires , I wouldnt have my precious cell phone
(what?)

On a day when a journalist was killed in a terror attack- JB: Im incapable of having sympathy for snowflake journalists

In this particular case:
JB: Nobody knows what happened
Actuality: AJ P , Buster Olney, Tyler Milliken, Jared Carabis, and Alex Speier are all giving a similar account

Its weird because its all out there, but I s'pose that Joe Clownboy Brady has buffooned this place up so much that people have forgotten how to google

That's a lot of babbling for this early in the morning.

[JoeBrady]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Someone asked the question about whether it applied to this year's playoffs, so it is only for one year.  I can do 2024 as well to see if it is a pattern.

1=winning team had both more HRs and higher OBP.
2-winning team had more HRs
3-winning team had higher OBP
World Series
ALCS		1
NLCS		1
AL Division Series		2
AL Division Series		1
NL Division Series		1
NL Division Series		1
Wild Card Series		1
Wild Card Series		3
Wild Card Series
Wild Card Series		1		2024-No pattern on this one.

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Someone asked the question about whether it applied to this year's playoffs, so it is only for one year.  I can do 2024 as well to see if it is a pattern.

It'd be interesting to see how regular season OBP/HR stats played into W/L in the playoffs rather than SSS playoff numbers. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

MLB announced the trade deadline for 2026 will be Monday August 3rd at 5 pm ET.

Expect no major Sox trades.

The 3rd? That doesn't feel right. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Only the post season numbers are shown, so...

I didn't see ANY numbers shown except 1, 2 and 3 TBH.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

zzzzzzzzz
 

please refrain from going down his rabbit holes, you must have realized how boring this post was when you made it. You prob almost didnt hit send.  You do a good job managing this forum, but JoeBradys lameness is going to kill it

Nobody wants to analyze or digest  joe bradys bad real estate advice. The dude is still working in his 80s cuz he has to and acts like hes mr accomplished.

Thought you had something there, huh. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I didn't see ANY numbers shown except 1, 2 and 3 TBH.

By design.  1 means it the winning team had both a higher OBP & more HRs.  2 means HRs did better, and 3 means OBP did better.  It's pretty meaningless since some of these series are 2-game series.  But that was the question that was raised.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The 3rd? That doesn't feel right. 

They said this was the only time they ever chose the later date. They wanted a weekday.

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They said this was the only time they ever chose the later date. They wanted a weekday.

July 31 would have been fine. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

July 31 would have been fine. 

Yes, I was surprised.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd be interesting to see how regular season OBP/HR stats played into W/L in the playoffs rather than SSS playoff numbers. 

I've done some low-level stuff on that.  The biggest issue is trying to create a model that I like.  In 2025, I calculated the standard deviation for the top-10 scoring teams relative to HRs, and calculated the standard deviation for the top-10 scoring teams relative to OBP.

It's only one year, but the STD for Runs-HRs was 4.98, while the STD for Runs-OBP was only 3.02.  On the HR side, the largest variances were the RS (7th in scoring and 15th in HRs) and MIL (3rd in scoring and 22nd in HRs).

	Runs	HR	Runs	OBP
NYY	1	1	1	2
LAD	2	2	2	5
MIL	3	22	3	3
TOR	4	11	4	1
CHC	5	6	5	11
ARI	6	8	6	7
BOS	7	15	7	8
PHI	8	9	8	4
NYM	9	5	9	6
SEA	10	3	10	10
	4.98272		3.023243

[Larry Cook]

Assuming our starting rotation is 

1.) LHP crochet 

2.) LHP suarez

3.) RHP gray 

4.) RHP bello 

5.) RHP Oviedo 

I think the bullpen will be: 

1.) LHP Chapman 

2.) RHP Whitlock 

3.) RHP slaten 

4.) RHP weissert 

5.) RHP Crawford 

6.) LHP Sandoval 

7.) LHP Harrison 

8.) RHP hicks 

- houck to the 60 DL

- Watson sent back via rule 5

- Moran exposed to waiver, when he passes through unclaimed, he goes to Worcester 

- tolle and early and Kelly and Sandlin and Bennett to Worcester. 
 

- drohan and  uberstine hopefully to Worcester as well. 
-sanmaneigo to Portland 

[UtahSox]

Did anyone see the Cotillo article today? The idea of adding Suárez actually is making a lot of sense. He gives you an everyday third baseman. He’s obviously not great defensively and he’s not a batting-average or OBP guy, but he does bring right-handed power, and that profile plays really well at Fenway. Home runs matter, and he provides legitimate pop.

More importantly, he gives the roster flexibility. With Suárez in the mix, you can rotate Duran and the other three outfielders across four spots, which buys you options and insulation. It basically allows you to avoid forcing a trade right now. You can let it ride, see how injuries shake out, and only make a move later if something too good to pass up presents itself, or you get the opportunity to trade for impact 3b like Paredes or 2b like Donavan/ Hoerner/ Gleyber Torres/ India/ Gavin Lux/ B Lowe… that deal does come along, Suárez slides easily to DH or stays at third, and you can still run your best lineup. That kind of optionality feels very on-brand for Breslow.

We know injuries are coming — it’s just a question of where. Without Suárez, a couple of key injuries create real holes in the lineup, where you’re suddenly relying on Romy González vs righties or Marcelo Mayer vs lefties, etc. That’s a big drop-off.

To me, this move isn’t about perfection. Signed with Baltimore and Chicago over the last month.  It’s about choices. Suárez gives you coverage, flexibility, and time — and that feels like a Brelowian way to manage the roster right now.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It'd be interesting to see how regular season OBP/HR stats played into W/L in the playoffs rather than SSS playoff numbers. 

Dont forget the context.  Hes been talking about how OBP matters way more than power and slg is way overblown is OBP is king by a lot.  No "I think", no "in my opinion" presenting it all as established fact.

ANd this painfully simple "analysis" (5 yr old stuff) is him showing his work.

Wild

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Did anyone see the Cotillo article today? The idea of adding Suárez actually is making a lot of sense.

I think it depends on what the pricetag is TBH. We're getting near the end of FA and he's still available. Is he now a 15M guy? 3/45? Two years at 3b and DH the final year? 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Did anyone see the Cotillo article today? The idea of adding Suárez actually is making a lot of sense. He gives you an everyday third baseman. He’s obviously not great defensively and he’s not a batting-average or OBP guy, but he does bring right-handed power, and that profile plays really well at Fenway. Home runs matter, and he provides legitimate pop.

More importantly, he gives the roster flexibility. With Suárez in the mix, you can rotate Duran and the other three outfielders across four spots, which buys you options and insulation. It basically allows you to avoid forcing a trade right now. You can let it ride, see how injuries shake out, and only make a move later if something too good to pass up presents itself, or you get the opportunity to trade for impact 3b like Paredes or 2b like Donavan/ Hoerner/ Gleyber Torres/ India/ Gavin Lux/ B Lowe… that deal does come along, Suárez slides easily to DH or stays at third, and you can still run your best lineup. That kind of optionality feels very on-brand for Breslow.

We know injuries are coming — it’s just a question of where. Without Suárez, a couple of key injuries create real holes in the lineup, where you’re suddenly relying on Romy González vs righties or Marcelo Mayer vs lefties, etc. That’s a big drop-off.

To me, this move isn’t about perfection. Signed with Baltimore and Chicago over the last month.  It’s about choices. Suárez gives you coverage, flexibility, and time — and that feels like a Brelowian way to manage the roster right now.

Beautifully written and thought out

[UtahSox]

10 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Did anyone see the Cotillo article today? The idea of adding Suárez actually is making a lot of sense. He gives you an everyday third baseman. He’s obviously not great defensively and he’s not a batting-average or OBP guy, but he does bring right-handed power, and that profile plays really well at Fenway. Home runs matter, and he provides legitimate pop.

More importantly, he gives the roster flexibility. With Suárez in the mix, you can rotate Duran and the other three outfielders across four spots, which buys you options and insulation. It basically allows you to avoid forcing a trade right now. You can let it ride, see how injuries shake out, and only make a move later if something too good to pass up presents itself, or you get the opportunity to trade for impact 3b like Paredes or 2b like Donavan/ Hoerner/ Gleyber Torres/ India/ Gavin Lux/ B Lowe… that deal does come along, Suárez slides easily to DH or stays at third, and you can still run your best lineup. That kind of optionality feels very on-brand for Breslow.

We know injuries are coming — it’s just a question of where. Without Suárez, a couple of key injuries create real holes in the lineup, where you’re suddenly relying on Romy González vs righties or Marcelo Mayer vs lefties, etc. That’s a big drop-off.

To me, this move isn’t about perfection. Signed with Baltimore and Chicago over the last month.  It’s about choices. Suárez gives you coverage, flexibility, and time — and that feels like a Brelowian way to manage the roster right now.

The real issue with this addition and not a trade, is the downstream roster math. You still have to figure out what to do with Campbell, Casas, Hicks, Yoshida, Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval. That’s a lot of talent, and it creates pressure on both the 26-man and the 40-man.

Quite frankly, some of those players are becoming either obsolete from a roster-construction standpoint, cash commitments without a clear role, or talented pieces with no realistic path to playing time. That’s not an indictment of the players per se.

In that situation, it may actually make more sense to convert surplus into value now. Trading from that group could bring back a high-end prospect, controllable down line 2028 and beyond pitching, or future flexibility, while also clearing 40-man space.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it depends on what the pricetag is TBH. We're getting near the end of FA and he's still available. Is he now a 15M guy? 3/45? Two years at 3b and DH the final year? 

Agreed, its time to kick the tires, not necessarily give a blank check.  While free agent options are dwindling so are available teams.  

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Assuming our starting rotation is 

1.) LHP crochet 

2.) LHP suarez

3.) RHP gray 

4.) RHP bello 

5.) RHP Oviedo 

I think the bullpen will be: 

1.) LHP Chapman 

2.) RHP Whitlock 

3.) RHP slaten 

4.) RHP weissert 

5.) RHP Crawford 

6.) LHP Sandoval 

7.) LHP Harrison 

8.) RHP hicks 

- houck to the 60 DL

- Watson sent back via rule 5

- Moran exposed to waiver, when he passes through unclaimed, he goes to Worcester 

- tolle and early and Kelly and Sandlin and Bennett to Worcester. 
- drohan and  uberstine hopefully to Worcester as well. 
-sanmaneigo to Portland 

That might be the best 13, not counting Hicks, who sucks, but maybe we keep One from Crawford or harrison starting in AAA, so we can have a longer look at Moran and or Watson. Keeping many options is usually the choice made- not the best 13.

A lot depends on how these guys look in ST'ing, and of course injury issues.

[drewski6]

Just now, UtahSox said:

The real issue with this addition and not a trade, is the downstream roster math. You still have to figure out what to do with Campbell, Casas, Hicks, Yoshida, Crawford, and Patrick Sandoval. That’s a lot of talent, and it creates pressure on both the 26-man and the 40-man.

Quite frankly, some of those players are becoming either obsolete from a roster-construction standpoint, cash commitments without a clear role, or talented pieces with no realistic path to playing time. That’s not an indictment of the players per se.

In that situation, it may actually make more sense to convert surplus into value now. Trading from that group could bring back a high-end prospect, controllable down line 2028 and beyond pitching, or future flexibility, while also clearing 40-man space.

I see both sides on what to do with the overflow and downstream decisisons.

1. Injuries will work it out

VS

2. Trade the overflow for prospects, who will likely how their value better than say an established MLB player with x amount of control that is only going to go down over time.

Personally, I lean towards 1 and I may be in the minority here and thats okay, but even like Yoshida.  People are like we dont need his .775 OPS because we have it from this other guy.  But Yoshida wasnt exactly in the plans last year and found himself batting cleanup in the playoffs and really one of our better bats in the playoffs last year.

I think that considering that injuries are at an all time high, you hoard dudes when you can.  So Im okay with Yoshida taking up a bench spot and even getting in games here and there to keep him sharp while we wait for an injury.  And I agree with your first post that the positional versatility can help here. You can play Cedanne at 2b sparingly, give duran a day off sparingly, give abreu a day off sparingly, it helps you use your roster and keep everyone contributing while you have too many players.  And I really think that we wont have too many players for long because of injuries.

"We dont have a spot for Yoshida, so we should move him" - maybe but I wouldnt be in a rush just for the sake of making everything "clean".  Because thats how you wind up being 2 injuries away from having Adam Eaton batting cleanup in the playoffs.  

People say well you need to have 9 good starting pitchers. I say I agree and for the same reason you need to have 15 capable hitters