Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[oldtimer]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we agree on the idea that we will not likely turnover more than 3-4 positions with 3B, 1B and SP being just about automatic turn-overs due to Bregman & Gio opting out and Lowe's arb cost being too high, but how do you rank out highest need areas? I'm pretty sure you have Rafaela higher on the list than I do, but here is mine:

1. 3B (Mayer can play 2B with Romy/DHam/Sogard as capable depth)

T2. SP2 (Preferably a borderline #1)

T2. 1B (Casas would be great depth and had options remaining. Romy/Campbell is better extended depth than we knew we had going into 2025.)

4. 2B (With Mayer and Story's health in question, we could use a solid middle IF'er type.)

If we miss out on a big bat at 3B or 1B, maybe a trade for someone like K Marte of a J polanco signing could make up for the non plus.

I really do not see the other positions as high need, but I'd rank them like this:

5. Back-up Catcher

6. LH'd RP'er

7. Infield depth

With RHBs Garcia & Campbell as OF depth and Duran & garcia capable of playing CF well enough, I don't see CF as a need area at all. I know you disagree, but I think you'd be fine with our OF, if we fixed the first 3-4 slots on my priority list.

Mayer and casas have established an injury history that suggests unreliability. Yoshida needs to  be moved and Campbell has not proven he can either hit or field at the ML level. If Bregman is truly gone, then we have additional needs to be filled. 

 Can we look at prospects for one of the infield positions?

Is there a prospect pitcher to help?

We need to trade an outfield asset to land a quality starting pitcher. That is looking like Duran or Abreu.

We definitely need a power bat to fill an infield position (1st or 3rd) 

We could use a power bat at DH

We need an improvement at BU catcher

I'm satisfied with Romy and Sogard for utility

 

 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Are you going out of your way to avoid crediting Crochet? Are you trolling me?

Crochet is the ace we’ve needed. Anthony is the franchise position player. You need both.

[Bellhorn04]

22 hours ago, notin said:

Duran is in decline? Based on what?

Hes topped 102 games only twice, and since the second season wasn’t as good as the first, that puts him “in decline”?  Hes only 29 years old!

 

Yeah, Duran has only been our best player the last 3 seasons, get him the hell out of here. 😆

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, Duran has only been our best player the last 3 seasons, get him the hell out of here. 😆

If he can be part of a package to get a good starting pitcher, or a RHH power bat then yes. I said that a year ago when his stock was higher than I believe it is now especially after morphing back somewhat to the Butterfly Man in LF. 

[Bellhorn04]

55 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If he can be part of a package to get a good starting pitcher, or a RHH power bat then yes. I said that a year ago when his stock was higher than I believe it is now especially after morphing back somewhat to the Butterfly Man in LF. 

Any team interested in trading an established starting pitcher is likely in cheap/rebuild mode and would be asking for guys like Early and Password, not Duran who is just about to start getting more expensive.

IMHO.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any team interested in trading an established starting pitcher is likely in cheap/rebuild mode and would be asking for guys like Early and Password, not Duran who is just about to start getting more expensive.

IMHO.

 

Agreed. Why would Minnesota want Duran in any package for Ryan? They're not going anywhere with Duran, especially if they're trading their best pitcher.

If the Twins didn't think Tolle, Password and Arias were enough at the deadline, adding Duran wasn't going to change their minds. 

And now that everyone's seen Early in action in the majors, everyone will ask for him this winter. Expect the price for a Ryan to include Tolle and Early...

... and Breslow may just decide to hang onto his minimum wage starters for a team he's building around pitching -- especially since the Sox' woefully inadequate batting order needs way too many reinforcements to legitimately compete for "a deep run in October."

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yeah, Duran has only been our best player the last 3 seasons, get him the hell out of here. 😆

I can understand trading him.  But to establish decline from a 2 year pattern?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any team interested in trading an established starting pitcher is likely in cheap/rebuild mode and would be asking for guys like Early and Password, not Duran who is just about to start getting more expensive.

IMHO.

 

I could see Cincy moving a pitcher not named Greene for Duran, since he is exactly the type of player they need.  But as I said somewhere else, Singer is probably their preferred trade chip.

As for the Sox, they are far, far, far more likely to just bring back Giolito than to trade for another starting pitcher…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Any team interested in trading an established starting pitcher is likely in cheap/rebuild mode and would be asking for guys like Early and Password, not Duran who is just about to start getting more expensive.

IMHO.

 

What about teams looking to trade a pitcher more expensive than Duran?  
 

I can understand moving Duran, whose value may never be higher, but I think Philadelphia and LA are far likelier landing spots.  I don’t see any high end SP coming back. Prospects that can be flipped for one, maybe.  But I think it’s far, far likelier the Sox just bring back Giolito rather than go out and acquire Ryan or Greene or whatever name some random stitch pundit throws out there…

[moonslav59]

I seriously doubt we include Tolle or Early for Ryan, let alone both, even as a 2 for 1 deal.

i question why a team looking to trade 2 years of Ryan would think 3 years of Duran adds much to their immediate or long term goals. Abreu has 4 years left and Rafaela has 6.

The Twins never seem to totally reload, so maybe they will want ML talent and not just prospects, and the Sox have several younger ML players with 4+ years of control- like Campbell, Mayer, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts and others, as well as untested or slightly tested prospects that are ML ready or near ML ready- like Garcia, Perales, Sandlin & Romero.

I don't think MN will want 5 second tier prospects and younger players and will focus on getting the best 2-3 they can get from any team, but I'm not sure any other team matches up as well as the Sox- in terms of having a long list of players we can offer.

I've mentioned trading Duran so many times, I'm sure some think I do not value him highly enough. The fact is I'd love to keep Duran and trade Yoshida, so he can DH and make way for Anthony in LF, but I just don't see a Yoshida trade, demotion or DFA in the works. Abreu and Rafaela have more control and play way better defense. Abreu is our best current power bat. Rafaela has double the years of control as Duran.

Ideally, we find someone to take Yoshida, as we pay most of his contract or take back a salary dump player in return, such as a pitcher, 1Bman or 3Bman. Duran could DH. Our OF would remain solid, but who can we get for a package like this?

Campbell or Garcia

Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or Fitts

Winckowski, Criswell, Sandlin, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran or Mullins 

Throw-ins like DHam, Grissom, Hicks (+$$$) or Hickey

Even if we offered Campbell, Crawford, Fitts and Sandlin, what's the best we could expect in return?

The other option is for JH to allow us to go over the first tax line and right up close to the second one. Sign 3 big FA names, while trying to shed some contract costs by trading Yoshida and Hicks along with a sizeable chunk of change. Non tender Lowe and see if we can squeeze under the budget.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I can understand trading him.  But to establish decline from a 2 year pattern?

I've retracted that claim, but I still have grave concerns about his projections.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

What about teams looking to trade a pitcher more expensive than Duran?  

Like Duran, Wong & Casas for Mitch Keller, Spencer Horwitz & Joey Bart?

Duran & Hicks for Pablo Lopez?

Duran & Yoshida (+$$$)  for Luis Castillo?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/13/2025 at 8:39 AM, notin said:

Fitts was the biggest subject on the Sox farm last off-season.  But he just doesn’t seem to last well when thrown into starting roles.  Make him a reliever.  All will be fine…

i just don't think he can ever be a high leverage reliever either

[Duran Is The Man]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

I could see Cincy moving a pitcher not named Greene for Duran, since he is exactly the type of player they need.  But as I said somewhere else, Singer is probably their preferred trade chip.

As for the Sox, they are far, far, far more likely to just bring back Giolito than to trade for another starting pitcher…

i certainly hope not. Gio did the internal brace rather than full TJS. i wouldn't doubt his year-end woes mean he's going to need full TJS this winter. his metrics were awful to boot. no way i'd re-sign him.

[Randy Red Sox]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I seriously doubt we include Tolle or Early for Ryan, let alone both, even as a 2 for 1 deal.

i question why a team looking to trade 2 years of Ryan would think 3 years of Duran adds much to their immediate or long term goals. Abreu has 4 years left and Rafaela has 6.

The Twins never seem to totally reload, so maybe they will want ML talent and not just prospects, and the Sox have several younger ML players with 4+ years of control- like Campbell, Mayer, Abreu, Rafaela, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts and others, as well as untested or slightly tested prospects that are ML ready or near ML ready- like Garcia, Perales, Sandlin & Romero.

I don't think MN will want 5 second tier prospects and younger players and will focus on getting the best 2-3 they can get from any team, but I'm not sure any other team matches up as well as the Sox- in terms of having a long list of players we can offer.

I've mentioned trading Duran so many times, I'm sure some think I do not value him highly enough. The fact is I'd love to keep Duran and trade Yoshida, so he can DH and make way for Anthony in LF, but I just don't see a Yoshida trade, demotion or DFA in the works. Abreu and Rafaela have more control and play way better defense. Abreu is our best current power bat. Rafaela has double the years of control as Duran.

Ideally, we find someone to take Yoshida, as we pay most of his contract or take back a salary dump player in return, such as a pitcher, 1Bman or 3Bman. Duran could DH. Our OF would remain solid, but who can we get for a package like this?

Campbell or Garcia

Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison or Fitts

Winckowski, Criswell, Sandlin, Kelly, Guerrero, Moran or Mullins 

Throw-ins like DHam, Grissom, Hicks (+$$$) or Hickey

Even if we offered Campbell, Crawford, Fitts and Sandlin, what's the best we could expect in return?

The other option is for JH to allow us to go over the first tax line and right up close to the second one. Sign 3 big FA names, while trying to shed some contract costs by trading Yoshida and Hicks along with a sizeable chunk of change. Non tender Lowe and see if we can squeeze under the budget.

you know the latter ain't happening

[Randy Red Sox]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

What about teams looking to trade a pitcher more expensive than Duran?  
 

I can understand moving Duran, whose value may never be higher, but I think Philadelphia and LA are far likelier landing spots.  I don’t see any high end SP coming back. Prospects that can be flipped for one, maybe.  But I think it’s far, far likelier the Sox just bring back Giolito rather than go out and acquire Ryan or Greene or whatever name some random stitch pundit throws out there…

that has certainly been the practice for the Sox in recent years to gamble on rehabbing SP on short term deals. It has worked so well in the past. Check back after the first week or 2 in December when things finally get going.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Like Duran, Wong & Casas for Mitch Keller, Spencer Horwitz & Joey Bart?

Duran & Hicks for Pablo Lopez?

Duran & Yoshida (+$$$)  for Luis Castillo?

I don’t think other teams are beating down the door for Hicks, or Masa throwing in Duran, or not. Seattle wouldn’t bite last year on Casas, and Masa for Castillo. So dreaming about unloading Casas, Hicks, and Masa, or Wong on somebody most likely won’t happen.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you know the latter ain't happening

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.)

We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones.

At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities.

Best hope:

$25-30M AAV on FA #1

$20-30M AAV on FA #2

Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman.

My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t think other teams are beating down the door for Hicks, or Masa throwing in Duran, or not. Seattle wouldn’t bite last year on Casas, and Masa for Castillo. So dreaming about unloading Casas, Hicks, and Masa, or Wong on somebody most likely won’t happen.

I agree.

The inclusion of Hicks or Yoshida is to offset the salary dumps we are taking back. Arenado is about as bad as Yoshida- worse at bat but can still feild okay. Lopez and Gray are not salary dumps, but they both make way more than Hicks, and including Hicks still saves those teams a lot of money. W Contreras is a slight salary dump and when added to Arenado could be viewed as an offset for Yoshida, and we essentially get Gray for Duran.

There is less than a 1% chance any of these deals are made. If MN trades Lopes, they will want all the money saved. I get it. I'm just throwing out long shot ideas to create a world where the Sox no longer have Yoshida or Hicks on the roster without an outright DFA.

[harmony]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.)

We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones.

Active but successful front offices swing and miss on occasion (just as active and successful hitters such as Shohei Ohtani strike out 187 times in a season).

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Like Duran, Wong & Casas for Mitch Keller, Spencer Horwitz & Joey Bart?

Duran & Hicks for Pablo Lopez?

Duran & Yoshida (+$$$)  for Luis Castillo?

The odds that Seattle targets Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida in an offseason trade are slimmer than the remote chance the Mariners make Luis Castillo available in a trade.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

Active but successful front offices swing and miss on occasion (just as active and successful hitters such as Shohei Ohtani strike out 187 times in a season).

I'm fine with Brez's miss %. I wont call for his firing, if he misses on another one. My point was that we need to hit on our deals this winter to get us to the next highest level of competitiveness. (The same could be said for 15 teams, I'm sure.)

[notin]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i just don't think he can ever be a high leverage reliever either

Based on anything besides a hunch?

If the answer is “just a hunch”, then thats the answer.  Not like I’m project relief pitcher success based on specific situational data…

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Active but successful front offices swing and miss on occasion (just as active and successful hitters such as Shohei Ohtani strike out 187 times in a season).

I’ll take it a step further.  If the Sox are going to swing and miss on the occasional signing, I’d much rather do so on deals like Buehler, Kluber, Richard than on deals like David Price, Carl Crawford, etc…

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ll take it a step further.  If the Sox are going to swing and miss on the occasional signing, I’d much rather do so on deals like Buehler, Kluber, Richard than on deals like David Price, Carl Crawford, etc…

Of course, but shying away from long term deals has not worked out too well, either.

Price was the last added pitcher we've signed for over 2 years. (Nate was extended at 4 years and Bello for more.)

Story was the last longer term deal, but it was not really a mega deal. JD's deal, figuring inflation was still not really a mega deal, either. Devers was extended.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

The odds that Seattle targets Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida in an offseason trade are slimmer than the remote chance the Mariners make Luis Castillo available in a trade.

We could add Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts or Harrison and take away some of the money added for Yoshida.

[harmony]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We could add Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts or Harrison and take away some of the money added for Yoshida.

Neither Jarren Duran nor Masataka Yoshida would be an ideal fit for the Mariners who might be in the offseason market for an established infielder or two.

[Randy Red Sox]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.)

We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones.

At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities.

Best hope:

$25-30M AAV on FA #1

$20-30M AAV on FA #2

Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman.

My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.

 

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.)

We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones.

At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities.

Best hope:

$25-30M AAV on FA #1

$20-30M AAV on FA #2

Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman.

My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.

Unless IBregman and Story both leave I don’t see any significant FA signings. I think that the Sox will count on Mayer replacing at either  SS or 3B and  a cheaper option at the other spot. I think Story will stay and Casas will be back at 1B. I would expect a trade for a SP on a reasonable contract with some control and maybe a reliever or 2. 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/17/2025 at 1:35 PM, moonslav59 said:

I'm pretty sure MVP and everyone else is firmly in the camp against complacency.

We need Crochet and Anthony plus more. Much more, but not at 7 other positions.

We need 3, maybe 4 high quality players. That seems like a lot, but really, it doesn't have to be. We are losing Bregman, Gio and Buehler's contracts. We have an extra high-quality OF'er to headline a trade package.

Sure, we have some big extensions kicking in a few small arb raises to add on, but there should be $40-50M to spend plus one major trade. That should be enough for 3 major additions.

If we don't add 2-3, we'll know JH is fine with complacency.

 

 

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm certainly far from expecting it and have given up on even hoping for it, but we should have about $40-50M to spend and stay under the tax line ($60-70M if we go up to the second tax line, which is highly unlikely.)

We can't swing and miss on the Buehler type signings. Brez needs to win every signing, which might be just 2 significant ones.

At best, I expect we trade for the third one of our 3 top priorities.

Best hope:

$25-30M AAV on FA #1

$20-30M AAV on FA #2

Major trade to land a high quality SP, 1Bman, 3Bman or SS/2Bman.

My guess is we land 1 or 2 of these wishes.

JH has shown for several years now that he is fine with complacency 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

 

Unless IBregman and Story both leave I don’t see any significant FA signings. I think that the Sox will count on Mayer replacing at either  SS or 3B and  a cheaper option at the other spot. I think Story will stay and Casas will be back at 1B. I would expect a trade for a SP on a reasonable contract with some control and maybe a reliever or 2. 

I hope you are wrong.

JH spent a lot, last winter, and the window looks more open, now than it did last fall.

Of course, if all JH cares about is giving the fans an impression we have a chance and no more, then he may pull back on spending, but I seriously can't imagine him not spending up to but below the tax line and resetting it. That still gives us over $40M (with Story's contract counted.)

Sox fans aren't as dumb as he thinks.