Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, but what if he agreed to an extension as part of the deal at $30M x 6?

I'd probably still say no.

Skubal is likely going to be on the trade block. Apparently, he and Detroit are $250m apart, so an extension would be miles north of $30m x 6. If he guarantees the extension with a deal, I'd trade virtually anyone for him that isn't Roman Anthony. I'd happily send them Mayer if they want to take the risk on his injuries. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Would like to see a trade of Jarren Duran for Isaac Paredes. 

Paredes has over a 50 percent pull percentage in his career for a RHB. Ideal fit for Fenway. Can play first base or third base. 

Houston's CF production was bad last year. Fills a need for a need for both teams.

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Skubal is likely going to be on the trade block. Apparently, he and Detroit are $250m apart, so an extension would be miles north of $30m x 6. If he guarantees the extension with a deal, I'd trade virtually anyone for him that isn't Roman Anthony. I'd happily send them Mayer if they want to take the risk on his injuries. 

True: $40M x 6 might not be enough.

[Dirtywater433]

5 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Welcome to Talk Sox!

Thank you. Got banned for no reason at Soxprospects.com forum after a few trade ideas. They're absolutely horrible over there. The moderators and the people that run that forum. 

Hoping for a better experience here.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Thank you. Got banned for no reason at Soxprospects.com forum after a few trade ideas. They're absolutely horrible over there. The moderators and the people that run that forum. 

Hoping for a better experience here.

Feel free to express whatever trade ideas you like. Just expect @notin to come at you with BTV backup and @moonslav59 with an alternate proposal that includes a potpourri of prospects. 

Our nonsense is a little more chill than over there. Welcome! 

[Dirtywater433]

Would also do Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. I don't want to resign Bregman to 5 years. I see the Mariners doing that after they just got booted. 

Arenado's bat might be close to toast, but he's acceptable as a bottom of the lineup hitter. Doesn't strike out and has a 47 percent pull percentage in his career. I think he'd be good enough.

I also see this as a good way to get rid of Hicks' horrible contract. He blows.

Isaac Paredes at first base. Nolan Arenado at third base. I think that's a good starting point. Also Mayer is at short stop, with Story going to second base full-time. The infield defense would be a immediate plus at this point, which was one of the biggest downfalls again for 5 years running it seems.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Would also do Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. I don't want to resign Bregman to 5 years. I see the Mariners doing that after they just got booted. 

Arenado's bat might be close to toast, but he's acceptable as a bottom of the lineup hitter. Doesn't strike out and has a 47 percent pull percentage in his career. I think he'd be good enough.

I also see this as a good way to get rid of Hicks' horrible contract. He blows.

Isaac Paredes at first base. Nolan Arenado at third base. I think that's a good starting point. Also Mayer is at short stop, with Story going to second base full-time. The infield defense would be a immediate plus at this point, which was one of the biggest downfalls again for 5 years running it seems.

I agree that Bregman for 5 years is too long. 

With Arenado, the hope is that the Pull AIR % leads to a mild resurgence. The only problem with the "he's ok as a bottom order bat" is that the Sox already have Rafaela and potentially Wong. Having those 3 at the end of a lineup would be a real quick inning. 

Do you think the Sox would actually move Story off SS? They should, but it seems unlikely to me that they will move the veteran over TBH. Story's defense took a big turn for the worse this year and could play up at 2b. 

[Dirtywater433]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree that Bregman for 5 years is too long. 

With Arenado, the hope is that the Pull AIR % leads to a mild resurgence. The only problem with the "he's ok as a bottom order bat" is that the Sox already have Rafaela and potentially Wong. Having those 3 at the end of a lineup would be a real quick inning. 

Do you think the Sox would actually move Story off SS? They should, but it seems unlikely to me that they will move the veteran over TBH. Story's defense took a big turn for the worse this year and could play up at 2b. 

They'd have to. If I'm Breslow, I'm telling Trevor Story-

"We want you back and opt in, but if you do, you're coming back as the second baseman." 

That'd put him in a dilemma of either staying for and playing second base, or leaving and looking for short stop job elsewhere. This would also create a need for a really good backup infielder. Funny, if Alex Cora could get 20 years younger, he'd be the perfect candidate to backup as a player.

Mayer won't be playing more than 110-120 games I don't think. There's no one in the organization that you can trust to backup short stop right now. If you're sticking Story at second base, you're probably doing it full-time.

[Dirtywater433]

1 minute ago, Dirtywater433 said:

They'd have to. If I'm Breslow, I'm telling Trevor Story-

"We want you back and opt in, but if you do, you're coming back as the second baseman." 

That'd put him in a dilemma of either staying for and playing second base, or leaving and looking for short stop job elsewhere. This would also create a need for a really good backup infielder. Funny, if Alex Cora could get 20 years younger, he'd be the perfect candidate to backup as a player.

Mayer won't be playing more than 110-120 games I don't think. There's no one in the organization that you can trust to backup short stop right now. If you're sticking Story at second base, you're probably doing it full-time.

I'd also non tender or trade wong. Find a better replacement. You should be able to be fine with Rafaela, catcher, and Arenado if the run prevention is good enough.

The Sean Murphy for Yoshida and pitching (Dobbins maybe) seems to work for both sides I think. That's if the Braves accept.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Mayer won't be playing more than 110-120 games I don't think. There's no one in the organization that you can trust to backup short stop right now. 

Hamilton is 2b only and really hard to keep him AND Romy as UTIL guys if neither can play SS. The upper minors are rough and Arias is a few years away. IKF signing as backup UTIL? Possible trade for a backup instead? Go the Arauz route via Rule 5? 

[notin]

11 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Would like to see a trade of Jarren Duran for Isaac Paredes. 

Paredes has over a 50 percent pull percentage in his career for a RHB. Ideal fit for Fenway. Can play first base or third base. 

Houston's CF production was bad last year. Fills a need for a need for both teams.

I love the idea of Paredes at Fenway.  Granted, he would set records for wall ball singles, which is not a bad thing. Defensively, he putters around average for a 3b.  Also not bad.  Not great, but not bad.

Both he and Duran have 3 arb years left and both probably make about $8mill this year.  Paredes is a 2-3 bWAR player, whereas Duran is more of a 5-6bWAR player.

BTV absolutely hates it as a 1 for 1 deal, with Paredes having a surplus value of $8.7 mill and Duran having one of $70.3 mill.  But it is a need-for-need trade and something could be worked out.  Giving up Duran or not, Paredes is a good idea for Boston.  And a potential surplus for Houston, who acquired Cam Smith in the same trade…

 

[notin]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hamilton is 2b only and really hard to keep him AND Romy as UTIL guys if neither can play SS. The upper minors are rough and Arias is a few years away. IKF signing as backup UTIL? Possible trade for a backup instead? Go the Arauz route via Rule 5? 

IKF is good.  Also, Dylan Moore, Willi Castro and Kevin Newman are free agents…

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

IKF is good.  Also, Dylan Moore, Willi Castro and Kevin Newman are free agents…

Willi Castro's SS defense doesn't seem all that hot lately. He was my first thought. 

[notin]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Willi Castro's SS defense doesn't seem all that hot lately. He was my first thought. 

He won’t derail any team playing there occasionally.  New man’s calling card used to be his glove, and Moore is a GG utility man (somehow)…

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Would also do Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. I don't want to resign Bregman to 5 years. I see the Mariners doing that after they just got booted. 

Arenado's bat might be close to toast, but he's acceptable as a bottom of the lineup hitter. Doesn't strike out and has a 47 percent pull percentage in his career. I think he'd be good enough.

I also see this as a good way to get rid of Hicks' horrible contract. He blows.

Isaac Paredes at first base. Nolan Arenado at third base. I think that's a good starting point. Also Mayer is at short stop, with Story going to second base full-time. The infield defense would be a immediate plus at this point, which was one of the biggest downfalls again for 5 years running it seems.

Mentions pull % within first 3 posts, like that.

[drewski6]

52 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Hamilton is 2b only and really hard to keep him AND Romy as UTIL guys if neither can play SS. The upper minors are rough and Arias is a few years away. IKF signing as backup UTIL? Possible trade for a backup instead? Go the Arauz route via Rule 5? 

Hamilton cant play SS? You are sure? (genuine question, not a challenge)

[drewski6]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

I love the idea of Paredes at Fenway.  Granted, he would set records for wall ball singles, which is not a bad thing. Defensively, he putters around average for a 3b.  Also not bad.  Not great, but not bad.

Both he and Duran have 3 arb years left and both probably make about $8mill this year.  Paredes is a 2-3 bWAR player, whereas Duran is more of a 5-6bWAR player.

BTV absolutely hates it as a 1 for 1 deal, with Paredes having a surplus value of $8.7 mill and Duran having one of $70.3 mill.  But it is a need-for-need trade and something could be worked out.  Giving up Duran or not, Paredes is a good idea for Boston.  And a potential surplus for Houston, who acquired Cam Smith in the same trade…

 

Get Paredes and Lodolo in a 3 teamer for Duran?

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Hamilton cant play SS? You are sure? (genuine question, not a challenge)

He has the range to play it, but not the arm. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Thank you. Got banned for no reason at Soxprospects.com forum after a few trade ideas. They're absolutely horrible over there. The moderators and the people that run that forum. 

Hoping for a better experience here.

I'm the owner of the site, welcome! If you ever have a question or need anything, reach out any time. 

[Nick]

10 hours ago, Hitch said:

Skubal is likely going to be on the trade block. Apparently, he and Detroit are $250m apart, so an extension would be miles north of $30m x 6. If he guarantees the extension with a deal, I'd trade virtually anyone for him that isn't Roman Anthony. I'd happily send them Mayer if they want to take the risk on his injuries. 

You go get an elite arm if you have a chance to acquire him.

The goal is to win the World Series. You don't do that by collecting marginal starting pitching.

[moonslav59]

I'm hearing Paredes is on the block.

I'd rather get Lodolo for Duran that IP.

I'm not sure what HOU would want. They do have a way of taking meh pitchers and turning them into Cy Young candidates, so maybe they like one of our younger arms.

Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo,

Jh Garcia (or Campbell?) & one from Harrison/Fitts/Dobbins/Crawford for Paredes

Sign E Suarez for 1B, if Alonso is too expensive for JH.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Paredes 3B

3. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R Suarez 1B

5, L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

6. R Story SS/2B

7. L Mayer 2B/SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela C

[harmony]

8 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Would also do Jordan Hicks for Nolan Arenado. I don't want to resign Bregman to 5 years. I see the Mariners doing that after they just got booted. 

In 10 years under Jerry Dipoto, Seattle's longest contract for a free agent hitter was Mitch Garver's two-year, $24 million deal signed in December 2023.

The Mariners are unlikely to have the financial constraints of recent offseasons, but Alex Bregman is a highly unlikely target.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

In 10 years under Jerry Dipoto, Seattle's longest contract for a free agent hitter was Mitch Garver's two-year, $24 million deal signed in December 2023.

That's a stunning fact.

I guess you don't really miss the Robinson Cano days.

 

[Dirtywater433]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

In 10 years under Jerry Dipoto, Seattle's longest contract for a free agent hitter was Mitch Garver's two-year, $24 million deal signed in December 2023.

The Mariners are unlikely to have the financial constraints of recent offseasons, but Alex Bregman is a highly unlikely target.

Yeah I see that changing a bit this off-season. They're going to re-sign Josh Naylor. They have no one to replace him, and they need his LHB. 

The Mariners better spend money this off-season, because their window to win is already closing with their control of their starting pitching. Like most of their starters have 2 years left of control. They need to push and win now or they'll be forever in purgatory.

[Dirtywater433]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm hearing Paredes is on the block.

I'd rather get Lodolo for Duran that IP.

I'm not sure what HOU would want. They do have a way of taking meh pitchers and turning them into Cy Young candidates, so maybe they like one of our younger arms.

Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo,

Jh Garcia (or Campbell?) & one from Harrison/Fitts/Dobbins/Crawford for Paredes

Sign E Suarez for 1B, if Alonso is too expensive for JH.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Paredes 3B

3. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

4. R Suarez 1B

5, L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

6. R Story SS/2B

7. L Mayer 2B/SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela C

I can see the Astros having interest in Harrison. That actually might be a fair trade straight up. The Astros need cheap controllable starting pitching. I don't see another team in the league matching up for Paredes. A lot of teams don't like the fact that he doesn't hit the ball hard a lot. Kind of like the same way they brush off Cody Bellinger. 

But for the Sox, he's perfect. There hasn't been a guy who has pulled balls this much in the air as a RHB since Edwin Encarnacion. His defense at third base really cratered this year. I'd prefer him at first base, but if it's a one year thing for third base I guess I could live with it. He's not exactly going to be more athletic coming off a bad hamstring injury, too. 

Breslow wants to really improve the infield defense. Mentioned that in the closing press conference to end the year.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Breslow wants to really improve the infield defense. Mentioned that in the closing press conference to end the year.

Improving the infield defense needs to start with seeing Casas as the future DH.

Next, move Story to 2B. One can argue he is not even an average defender at SS, and being "rusty" is not an excuse.

That leave Mayer as the SS or 3Bman, and we need to add a left side infielder who is plus on D. That's not E Suarez, but he'd be okay at 1B (and emergency back up to 3B.)

Paredes is not a good defensive 3Bman, but he'd be okay, so trading Harrison & Jh Garcia for Paredes and signing Suarez might be all we need to fix the O and be good on D. Both are RHBs, so trading Duran or Abreu might not be suck a great idea, but Duran would have to DH, unless we trade Rafaela and play Duran in CF. (That's a big hit on our OF defense.) And, where does Casas play?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, harmony said:

In 10 years under Jerry Dipoto, Seattle's longest contract for a free agent hitter was Mitch Garver's two-year, $24 million deal signed in December 2023.

The Mariners are unlikely to have the financial constraints of recent offseasons, but Alex Bregman is a highly unlikely target.

Is this because of the owner, or because hitters don't want to go to SEA? 

[harmony]

57 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is this because of the owner, or because hitters don't want to go to SEA? 

Both (although hitters Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford signed extensions with the Mariners).

[harmony]

8 hours ago, Dirtywater433 said:

Yeah I see that changing a bit this off-season. They're going to re-sign Josh Naylor. They have no one to replace him, and they need his LHB. 

The Mariners better spend money this off-season, because their window to win is already closing with their control of their starting pitching. Like most of their starters have 2 years left of control. They need to push and win now or they'll be forever in purgatory.

The Mariners have two years of team control on Logan Gilbert, three years on George Kirby, four years each on Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, and two years with a vesting option for a third year on Luis Castillo.

Starters Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan are among seven Seattle prospects on Jim Bowden's Top 50 prospect list.

The Mariners may well make a push to sign first baseman Josh Naylor. However, Seattle returns lefthand-hitting 1B/OF Luke Raley, who in 2023-24 posted 5.9 bWAR to Naylor's 3.7 bWAR over the same two seasons. Recency bias clearly favors Naylor, who is three years younger than Raley.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Both (although hitters Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford signed extensions with the Mariners).

I think signing extensions is a lot different than luring prospective FA's. What are the prominent offensive FAs that SEA has brought in since moving ballparks 25 years ago? 

Ichiro (does he really count?)

Adrian Beltre

Nelson Cruz

Cano

Richie Sexson

Anyone else?