Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Duran Is The Man]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm talking 2026 and  beyond.

Duran is in decline and is worse vs LHPs, now.

Abreu is improving and is now better vs LHPs.

Abreu is a GG RF'er in a park that needs one. Duran is now a negative on D.

Duran costs $8M in 2026 with 2 more arbs for 3 years of control

Abreu is pre arb with 3 arbs making 4 years of control.

Duran is a much better baserunner, who even saw that decline in 2025.

Duran was better in 2024 and 2025. Abreu has more value, now.

Yoshida could be traded, if we pay all but $3-4M a year x 2. Hicks for all but $2M a year x 2.

$8M, whooptiefrickindo. how many times have i heard that's pocket change. Abreu was a GG last year. Duran was an AllStar last year. you forgot that. Duran is in decline? that's your opinion. Abreu can't even stay on the field. yeah, that's what we need, more freakin' players that can't suit up every day. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

$8M, whooptiefrickindo. how many times have i heard that's pocket change. Abreu was a GG last year. Duran was an AllStar last year. you forgot that. Duran is in decline? that's your opinion. Abreu can't even stay on the field. yeah, that's what we need, more freakin' players that can't suit up every day. 

Duran is in decline. I didn't forget about all star designations. I did not mention it. I agreed that Duran had better 2024 and 2025 seasons, and his all star was a reward for that.

BTW, Duran missed time in 2023, too, but I will give you the iron man part of value goes to Duran. Abreu players more games than Duran's 2023 number both of the last 2 years. Much of his missed games were due to Cora choosing to platoon the wrong OF'er, not because of injuries.

You can assume Abreu will keep getting hurt, but that doesn't make it true.

Iron Man: Duran

Speed/Running: Duran

Power: Abreu

OBP: Abreu

Age/Trending: Abreu

Defense (glove & arm) Abreu

Cost: Abreu

Years of control: Abreu

Least games missed due to suspensions and wimping out of a vaccine: Abreu.

When we are trying to straddle the tax line, $8M could mean teh difference between Suarez and Hoskins on AAV,

It's a lot closer than this breakdown shows, but I'm keeping the GG RF'er with more power and better splits.

I'd be okay trading Abreu and keeping Duran, or even trading Rafaela, instead.

[Nick]

In 2025, he ranked fifth in the NPB in home runs with 22 and first in OPS at 1.043 despite only playing in 56 games. Murakami missed a large portion of the season due to an oblique injury that kept him sidelined. That pace projected to 74 home runs over a full season, which would shatter his original record.

Why do we keep doing this to ourselves? Another player coming off an oblique injury. Haven't we had enough of this?

I just want to scream into Bresblows.

 

[drewski6]

30 minutes ago, Nick said:

In 2025, he ranked fifth in the NPB in home runs with 22 and first in OPS at 1.043 despite only playing in 56 games. Murakami missed a large portion of the season due to an oblique injury that kept him sidelined. That pace projected to 74 home runs over a full season, which would shatter his original record.

Why do we keep doing this to ourselves? Another player coming off an oblique injury. Haven't we had enough of this?

I just want to scream into Bresblows.

 

Well, its not like he's ours. Dont even think hes been posted yet.

[drewski6]

Abreu and Duran might be the two best hitters on the team right now.

[mvp 78]

43 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Abreu and Duran might be the two best hitters on the team right now.

Anthony had a 140 wRC+, no other projected starter under contract was over 115. 

[drewski6]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Anthony had a 140 wRC+, no other projected starter under contract was over 115. 

Yup, and hes a passive worm-killer.

[mvp 78]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Yup, and hes a passive worm-killer.

He'd be actively killing the worms though? 

[Cameron Tran]

Saying Anthony is a worm-killer is insane. Our best hitter from July on. Going to be a superstar for years to come.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Saying Anthony is a worm-killer is insane. Our best hitter from July on. Going to be a superstar for years to come.

He hits the ball so hard, his grounders kill turtles and armadillos.

[moonslav59]

I'm not worries about Anthony's initial GB%. The guy can hit.

He may never become a 40-50 HR guy, but he might reach 30-40, at some point. I think he's our best hope at a .900 batter in 2026. Abreu, Duran, Yoshida and maybe Casas are the three with the best odds at reaching .800, but .750 to .775 is their likely projection. (Romy and a possible returning Ref can hit ,800+ in a strict platoon.)

Story, Narvaez, Mayer and Rafaela are probably looking at .750 as a max. Wong, DHam and others might struggle to get close to .700.

As for power, these were the HR per 650 numbers:

35 Abreu

28 Refsnyder (may not return)

25 Story

21 Narvaez

20 Mayer & DHam

18 Anthony & Casas

17 Romy

16 Campbell

15 Duran

13 Yoshida

7 Eaton

0 Wong & Sogard

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not worries about Anthony's initial GB%. The guy can hit.

It's not his "initial" GB rate, it's his GB rate. He's always hit like this.

[drewski6]

Roman Anthony is the p

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He'd be actively killing the worms though? 

TY for correction, I meant hes a passive, worm-killer.  Not a passive worm-killer.

As in he's passive (doesnt swing enough) and smashes the ball into the ground when he does swing

He's very good dont get me wrong, but Im not comfortable with him being considered such a high driver as our offense.  If the writing on the wall comes to fruition, and Duran is traded (I am much less against this than I previously was) - I think RA will step in well as leadoff man.

We have a profile that is going to get on base a lot. Lot of walks, hes very patient. A lot of going the other way (those two things generally go hand in hand), a lot of singles through the left side of the infield.  He hits a lot of low-liners.  These balls are crushed, dont get me wrong, so he'll always have a high BABIP.

But I see limitations.  He's primarily a table setter without elite or even very good wheels.  He'll keep the line moving and do his thing, but I want two punishing bats, and I dont count his.

Now bring back Bregman and get Alonso and we are talking. Thats a great top 3 w RA.  But I dont think hes going to carry anything offensively. I think hes more of a good complimentary piece.  Because his flaw is that hes a worm killer and it will cap his potential. He hits the ball very hard, he hits the ball into the ground very often. Thats exactly what a worm killer is. THey dont call you a worm killer if you roll over everything, even if those groundballs tend to get through, like Verdugo.  You have to smash the ground to be a worm killer and thats exactly what RA is.  I wish he was faster.

[drewski6]

My hope is that he turns into one of those guys who is really good at reading pitchers and situations and gets very good jumps on the SB attempts.  If his speed can play up, then maybe he can be a "superstar"

But lead-off guys with under 20 sb arent usually superstars, especially when they arent CF's or SS's.  I do think his OBP will be near .400, so I think he'll be one of the better leadoff hitters in MLB.  But he doesnt have the legs to turn his OBP into manufactured runs so we need very good bats behind him.

Story/Abreu - you have a very good lineup if these dudes are batting 5th/6th. Not really if htey are batting 2nd/3rd.  So we need some bats.

[mvp 78]

Other hitters with high GB rates: Yelich (uh oh), Yandy, Elly, James Wood, Tatis, Michael Harris II, Gunnar, Oneil Cruz, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Julio Rodriguez. 

[notin]

17 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

He hits the ball so hard, his grounders kill turtles and armadillos.

And occasionally one of those worms from Tremors…

[notin]

On 10/15/2025 at 8:37 PM, moonslav59 said:

Duran is in decline. I didn't forget about all star designations. I did not mention it. I agreed that Duran had better 2024 and 2025 seasons, and his all star was a reward for that.

BTW, Duran missed time in 2023, too, but I will give you the iron man part of value goes to Duran. Abreu players more games than Duran's 2023 number both of the last 2 years. Much of his missed games were due to Cora choosing to platoon the wrong OF'er, not because of injuries.

You can assume Abreu will keep getting hurt, but that doesn't make it true.

Iron Man: Duran

Speed/Running: Duran

Power: Abreu

OBP: Abreu

Age/Trending: Abreu

Defense (glove & arm) Abreu

Cost: Abreu

Years of control: Abreu

Least games missed due to suspensions and wimping out of a vaccine: Abreu.

When we are trying to straddle the tax line, $8M could mean teh difference between Suarez and Hoskins on AAV,

It's a lot closer than this breakdown shows, but I'm keeping the GG RF'er with more power and better splits.

I'd be okay trading Abreu and keeping Duran, or even trading Rafaela, instead.

Duran is in decline? Based on what?

Hes topped 102 games only twice, and since the second season wasn’t as good as the first, that puts him “in decline”?  Hes only 29 years old!

 

[notin]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

My hope is that he turns into one of those guys who is really good at reading pitchers and situations and gets very good jumps on the SB attempts.  If his speed can play up, then maybe he can be a "superstar"

But lead-off guys with under 20 sb arent usually superstars, especially when they arent CF's or SS's.  I do think his OBP will be near .400, so I think he'll be one of the better leadoff hitters in MLB.  But he doesnt have the legs to turn his OBP into manufactured runs so we need very good bats behind him.

Story/Abreu - you have a very good lineup if these dudes are batting 5th/6th. Not really if htey are batting 2nd/3rd.  So we need some bats.

The real reason Pete Rose isnt in the Hall of Fame.

Now we need to launch the campaign to get Wade Boggs out and Brett Butler in…

[drewski6]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Other hitters with high GB rates: Yelich (uh oh), Yandy, Elly, James Wood, Tatis, Michael Harris II, Gunnar, Oneil Cruz, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Julio Rodriguez. 

Elly, Harris Jr, Cruz, Turner are a lot faster. Wood, Corra, JRod are significantly faster.  Wheels matter a lot. Yandy has made one all-star team.  RA is , in my prediction, going to be a very good baseball player.  He is not, in my prediction, going to be a "carrier" or a "superstar".

Yelichs best seasons give hope, but Im not sure RA has the raw strenght to match Yelichs ISO in those seasons.

I think RA is good already and will get better. I also think fans are overrating him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Elly, Harris Jr, Cruz, Turner are a lot faster. Wood, Corra, JRod are significantly faster.  Wheels matter a lot. Yandy has made one all-star team.  RA is , in my prediction, going to be a very good baseball player.  He is not, in my prediction, going to be a "carrier" or a "superstar".

Yelichs best seasons give hope, but Im not sure RA has the raw strenght to match Yelichs ISO in those seasons.

I think RA is good already and will get better. I also think fans are overrating him.

My main concern were the strikeouts -- like with every prospect or Red Sox batter, in general, trying to adjust to big league pitching... Maybe it's just my crabby, old-guy obsession with batting from back when the object of hitting a baseball was actually hitting the baseball.

But as far as power? Anthony crushed a 500-foot grand slam that forced Breslow to call him up. He also won a home run derby (Future Games?). That's plenty strong enough, but at 21 there's still room to bulk up.

As for overrating him -- no doubt fans are desperate for a superstar in Boston to replace the Good (still winning titles in LA), the Bad (X doesn't mark the spot in SD), and the Ugly (banned to San Fran).

But all those #1 prospect ratings came from industry professionals, and now seasoned teammates like Bregman are calling Ant one of the best in the bigs. Gotta consider the sources and feel encouraged.

[Cameron Tran]

I think everyone here is way to low on Roman. From the start of July until September 2nd (when he got hurt) Roman was 10th in MLB in OPS, 5th in OBP, 11th in WRC+, 4th in hard hit%, 3rd in EV. Also graded out well in RF with 6 OAA and 3 FRV. This kid is a stud. Going to be a perineneal all star. Will be an MVP candidate year in year out. Clearly our best player. This kids incredible and if we build a team lets build it around him. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Cameron Tran said:

I think everyone here is way to low on Roman. From the start of July until September 2nd (when he got hurt) Roman was 10th in MLB in OPS, 5th in OBP, 11th in WRC+, 4th in hard hit%, 3rd in EV. Also graded out well in RF with 6 OAA and 3 FRV. This kid is a stud. Going to be a perineneal all star. Will be an MVP candidate year in year out. Clearly our best player. This kids incredible and if we build a team lets build it around him. 

I agree with you. He's not going to be a 40 HR guy because of the GB rate, but he's the franchise. 

[Cameron Tran]

Roman Anthony had the 3rd longest batted ball of Paul Skenes this year. He allowed 4 hits over 400 feet this year. Out of all 4, Skenes threw Roman the fastest pitch. Roman Anthony is 21. He had less than 250 Major League atbats at the time. 

[Cameron Tran]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree with you. He's not going to be a 40 HR guy because of the GB rate, but he's the franchise. 

Serious .300/.400/.500 potential. That's a stud. I haven't been this excited about a sox player since Pablo Reyes had that week long stretch where he was awesome in 2023 (kidding, but point stands)

[Cameron Tran]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

My hope is that he turns into one of those guys who is really good at reading pitchers and situations and gets very good jumps on the SB attempts.  If his speed can play up, then maybe he can be a "superstar"

But lead-off guys with under 20 sb arent usually superstars, especially when they arent CF's or SS's.  I do think his OBP will be near .400, so I think he'll be one of the better leadoff hitters in MLB.  But he doesnt have the legs to turn his OBP into manufactured runs so we need very good bats behind him.

Story/Abreu - you have a very good lineup if these dudes are batting 5th/6th. Not really if htey are batting 2nd/3rd.  So we need some bats.

If Josh Naylor can get to 30 bags, anyone can

[norbit]

When I look at Player's season, I usually take out the first series due to timing, anxiety, and physical conditions.  So when I look at the outfielders I was kind of surprised.

Rafeala    253/299/421   wRC+ 95

Duran.      257/332/445  wRC+ 112

Abreu.      234/299/441   wRC+ 97 and this is him being consistently platooned.

 

My personal preference is strong up the middle defense and getting offense from the corners.  I would not be surprised if Duran and Abreu are moved, one is obviously better offensively and the other defensively.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not his "initial" GB rate, it's his GB rate. He's always hit like this.

48.4 and 48.0 is still high, yes. His MLB 51.1 is likely a predictable increase, but it doesn't mean he will always be around 48-51%, and besides, we don't need every batter hitting 30+ HRs.

I'll take the near 400 OBP (minors & majors.) I'll take the 40 doubles+triples and 12-18 HRs, but I do think we'll see his HR rate improve as he ages.

While OBP might be out of style, I still think it has immense value.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Other hitters with high GB rates: Yelich (uh oh), Yandy, Elly, James Wood, Tatis, Michael Harris II, Gunnar, Oneil Cruz, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Julio Rodriguez. 

It used to be thought that players who hit the ball hard and low (high GB% and LD%) were good hitters.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

My main concern were the strikeouts -- like with every prospect or Red Sox batter, in general, trying to adjust to big league pitching... Maybe it's just my crabby, old-guy obsession with batting from back when the object of hitting a baseball was actually hitting the baseball.

But as far as power? Anthony crushed a 500-foot grand slam that forced Breslow to call him up. He also won a home run derby (Future Games?). That's plenty strong enough, but at 21 there's still room to bulk up.

As for overrating him -- no doubt fans are desperate for a superstar in Boston to replace the Good (still winning titles in LA), the Bad (X doesn't mark the spot in SD), and the Ugly (banned to San Fran).

But all those #1 prospect ratings came from industry professionals, and now seasoned teammates like Bregman are calling Ant one of the best in the bigs. Gotta consider the sources and feel encouraged.

Ks suck, and while guys like Bobby D could never sustain his minor league OBP (BB and H%) Anthony has started out showing he can.

Give me a .390+ OBP and I could care less about the K rate.

Anthony should lead off, next season, and his skills, other than baserunning, will be a big asset.

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Duran is in decline? Based on what?

Hes topped 102 games only twice, and since the second season wasn’t as good as the first, that puts him “in decline”?  Hes only 29 years old!

 

Maybe "decline" is a bit premature, and maybe the memories of Jake are overriding my logic. 

An age 29 season (2026) should not signal decline. It is often enough a player's best season. I just got a sense that he was not the same batter he was from 2023-2024, and for some reason, he stopped trying to steal bases as much. (Tired? Injured?)

You are right, I should not read the last 3 seasons' OPS+ of 121>132>114 as a sign of decline, but it could be.