Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Randy Red Sox]

20 hours ago, notin said:

No team is giving up a #2 for Duran.

Teams acquiring Duran are doing so because they want to win now or in the immediate future.  Teams trying to win in the short term dont trade away their second best starter..

could not agree more. The likely scenario following the actions of the last several years is to sign a SP or 2  coming off injury on a 1-2 yr deal and hope either Tolle or Early can progress to that #2 spot.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That is a lot of work, and makes me want to trade for Sonny Gray even more now. Plus, sign Cease or Suarez (because Dombro "can't keep them all").

Other factors: with elbow ligaments so fragile these days, these days have to be considered more important than last year's or two years ago. Example: Trevor Rogers, as a guy who's arrived...

... also, maybe no stats quite capture the aura of certain stoppers in the postseason -- I'm thinking of Steinbrenner complaining that his front office let the Red Sox get Schilling, who he called "a warrior." 

For teams that want to go deep in October -- and isn't that the point -- I also have to favor Dave Stewart over Roger Clemens... at least, when they face each other.

I’d pass on Gray as a #2 (but acceptable as an innings eater?).  He looks like an ace/#2 borderline pitcher based on Bell’s definition and any metric. But he’s aging, and his 3 year trends are too influenced by 3 years ago.

Love  Suarez, even with the annual injury that costs him 2-4 weeks.  Also, with Luzardo reaching FA after 2026, you are correct about Dombrowski’s pitching crunch.  Plus at some point, Andrew Painter deserves a real shot.

 

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

could not agree more. The likely scenario following the actions of the last several years is to sign a SP or 2  coming off injury on a 1-2 yr deal and hope either Tolle or Early can progress to that #2 spot.

Ive actually found historical precedents that do refute my statement.   But certainly Duran can be traded for prospects that are in turn flipped for a starter.

Early has looked much better than Tolle in very limited action.  I’d like them both penciled in between #6 and #9 on the SP depth chart, depending on how you rank them compared to Hunter Dobbin and Kyle Harrison

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

I avoided the ERA-/ERA+ metric because pitchers do not become more talented due to defenses behind them.  But it’s not like one year of fWAR isnt without flaws either.

The bottom line to me is - the Sox can use this off-season to upgrade their SP, but there are multiple ways to go so beyond the fictional #2 starter.  The Sox will have 11 SPs on their 40 man roster once the off-season starts (a number that includes Houck because he has to be there from December through March) so they can part either a pitching prospect if necessary, although loving one or two to the bullpen is probably smarter.

Of these 9 pitchers ( not listing Houck or the recently activated RHP Luis Perales), the ones I would consider trading (in order) are:

1. Harrison

2. Crawford

3. Fitts (but I prefer simply putting him in the bullpen)

4. Dobbins

5. Bello

6. Sandoval

7. Tolle

8. Early

9. Crochet

Adding another starter isn’t tantamount, but it wouldn’t hurt.  
 

But rather than calling for some sort of co-ace, another (smarter?) strategy is build up the bullpen and just add an innings eater.  It doesn’t agree with anyone postseason plans, but starting pitching in the postseason is different anyway and often includes quick hooks to the bullpen.

I kept reading about Bello’s “awful” start, but 2 ER in 2 IP isnt horrible.  Heck in the Cubs-Brewers series, that would be elite…

 

Good laydown. I'm not sure how much trade value the other pitching prospects have, but I think some may be highly coveted: Clarke, Valera, Holobetz and Fajardo in particular.

My trade list might be:

1. Fitts, but I agree his pen value might exceed his trade value.

2. Crawford

3. Dobbins

4. Harrison (I think #2 & 3 have more trade value and maybe less upside)

5. Tolle (I think Bello and Sandoval are locks)

Do not trade Early or Crochet.

I think we need another top starter. Perales should not be traded. I'm hesitant to trade Valera, Fajardo, Holobetz or Clarke.

 

[notin]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good laydown. I'm not sure how much trade value the other pitching prospects have, but I think some may be highly coveted: Clarke, Valera, Holobetz and Fajardo in particular.

My trade list might be:

1. Fitts, but I agree his pen value might exceed his trade value.

2. Crawford

3. Dobbins

4. Harrison (I think #2 & 3 have more trade value and maybe less upside)

5. Tolle (I think Bello and Sandoval are locks)

Do not trade Early or Crochet.

I think we need another top starter. Perales should not be traded. I'm hesitant to trade Valera, Fajardo, Holobetz or Clarke.

 

Sandoval is a lock.  Everyone else already passed on him once.

If you had to trade one - Bello or Tolle?  I did rank Sandoval in between, but I doubt anyone is interest in him right now. To me, outting Bello as more tradable than Tolle was the only time I had to stop and think.

Ive been pushing Fitts to the pen for multiple years.  SoxProspects finally put him in there.  Will the actual Sox follow?

I think Perales might be best suited for the bullpen, but almost all pitchers are more suited for the pen than the rotation.  I think it makes sense to give him a shot starting..,

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, notin said:

Ive actually found historical precedents that do refute my statement.   But certainly Duran can be traded for prospects that are in turn flipped for a starter.

Early has looked much better than Tolle in very limited action.  I’d like them both penciled in between #6 and #9 on the SP depth chart, depending on how you rank them compared to Hunter Dobbin and Kyle Harrison

My opinion may change, but I'd like to see Tolle and Fitts in the pen. I'd give Early a shot at the #5 slot, but I'd want him to share that slot with Crawford or Dobbins. Something like this:

1. Crochet

2. _____ (Ryan?)

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

5. Early/Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison

9. Perales/Holobetz

Openers: Criswell/Fitts

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Sandoval is a lock.  Everyone else already passed on him once.

If you had to trade one - Bello or Tolle?  I did rank Sandoval in between, but I doubt anyone is interest in him right now. To me, outting Bello as more tradable than Tolle was the only time I had to stop and think…

Certainly Bello is more "tradeable," but I'm thinking we need to keep our young pitchers who have shown they can eat innings. I'd trust Bello as our 3/4 more than Tolle. 

I like Early more than anyone but Crochet, but I can't pencil him in as even our #5, right now.

This is tricky exercise.

[mvp 78]

On 10/11/2025 at 1:47 PM, moonslav59 said:

Certainly Bello is more "tradeable," but I'm thinking we need to keep our young pitchers who have shown they can eat innings. I'd trust Bello as our 3/4 more than Tolle. 

I like Early more than anyone but Crochet, but I can't pencil him in as even our #5, right now.

This is tricky exercise.

Bello can pitch like a 2 for a long stretch during the season, but his overall performance is definitely closer to a good 4. His cheap contract makes me want to hold onto him.

[mvp 78]

On 10/11/2025 at 1:45 PM, moonslav59 said:

My opinion may change, but I'd like to see Tolle and Fitts in the pen. I'd give Early a shot at the #5 slot, but I'd want him to share that slot with Crawford or Dobbins. Something like this:

1. Crochet

2. _____ (Ryan?)

3. Bello

4. Sandoval

5. Early/Crawford/Dobbins/Harrison

9. Perales/Holobetz

Openers: Criswell/Fitts

Early just has a lot of pitchability. He could stick as a 5th starter for a season pending health. Tolle needs to develop secondaries that can work at the MLB level before he can become a starter. He can do that while pitching bulk innings in relief. 

I think Fitts could be trade fodder. He's fine, but didn't really make any sort of leap this season. 

[mvp 78]

On 10/11/2025 at 1:43 PM, notin said:

Sandoval is a lock.  Everyone else already passed on him once.

If you had to trade one - Bello or Tolle?  I did rank Sandoval in between, but I doubt anyone is interest in him right now. To me, outting Bello as more tradable than Tolle was the only time I had to stop and think.

Ive been pushing Fitts to the pen for multiple years.  SoxProspects finally put him in there.  Will the actual Sox follow?

I think Perales might be best suited for the bullpen, but almost all pitchers are more suited for the pen than the rotation.  I think it makes sense to give him a shot starting..,

They'll put Perales in the rotation just so that he can get the reps for his pitches. Right now, he just doesn't have enough IP in MiLB to give me comfort to throw him in the pen, see success and then promote. 

[Hugh2]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'll put Perales in the rotation just so that he can get the reps for his pitches. Right now, he just doesn't have enough IP in MiLB to give me comfort to throw him in the pen, see success and then promote. 

Perales might have the highest ceiling in the system.  I mean, he very well could end up in the pen but he's our best shot at the moment of developing an Ace, with all respect to Tolle, but It feels very premature to advocate moving him to the pen. 

I could see him in the pen at the end of the year for a playoff run the same way we saw Tolle this year.  Maybe, he's coming off TJ so he hasn't pitched in a while, so if he goes a fulls season it's kind of hard to see him available for anything by the end of the year. 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Perales might have the highest ceiling in the system.  I mean, he very well could end up in the pen but he's our best shot at the moment of developing an Ace, with all respect to Tolle, but It feels very premature to advocate moving him to the pen. 

I could see him in the pen at the end of the year for a playoff run the same way we saw Tolle this year.  Maybe, he's coming off TJ so he hasn't pitched in a while, so if he goes a fulls season it's kind of hard to see him available for anything by the end of the year. 

The issue is that he currently has only one option year left. There's a chance he earns a 4th option year due to time missed, which would give him more time to develop into a starter. If next season is really his final option year, it's the last chance to develop him outside of the MLB clubhouse. If he's not really looking starter ready around ASB, they may need to make a decision about putting him in the pen. 

[mvp 78]

Perales career MiLB: 47 G, 163.1 IP

If this is his last option year, that's not a lot of experience to go on. Yes, that even includes his DSL IP. 

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The issue is that he currently has only one option year left. There's a chance he earns a 4th option year due to time missed, which would give him more time to develop into a starter. If next season is really his final option year, it's the last chance to develop him outside of the MLB clubhouse. If he's not really looking starter ready around ASB, they may need to make a decision about putting him in the pen. 

I think he is going to be eligible for the 4th option, if he's optioned in 2026.  It's a little convaluted but that's what I'm hearing.  Full disclosure it's soxprospects forums and google ai.  I read the rules, it looks like he could get it but again...it's a little convoluted. 

I think there's a real chance, that if Perales is as good as we all hope he is, it won't be an issue.  He be looking MLB ready and we will be talking about him having a rotation spot to start the year in 2027. 

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think he is going to be eligible for the 4th option, if he's optioned in 2026.  It's a little convaluted but that's what I'm hearing.  Full disclosure it's soxprospects forums and google ai.  I read the rules, it looks like he could get it but again...it's a little convoluted. 

I think there's a real chance, that if Perales is as good as we all hope he is, it won't be an issue.  He be looking MLB ready and we will be talking about him having a rotation spot to start the year in 2027. 

They also don't award the additional option until after the season, so Sox will need to be aggressive with him during the year just in case it's not awarded I think.

[Hugh2]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They also don't award the additional option until after the season, so Sox will need to be aggressive with him during the year just in case it's not awarded I think.

If he's pitching well I don't think that's an issue, they've been very very aggresive with pitchers who perform in recent years. 

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Early just has a lot of pitchability. He could stick as a 5th starter for a season pending health. Tolle needs to develop secondaries that can work at the MLB level before he can become a starter. He can do that while pitching bulk innings in relief. 

I think Fitts could be trade fodder. He's fine, but didn't really make any sort of leap this season. 

Fitts is nothing more than a throw in on a trade.  he has very little value on his own

[notin]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Fitts is nothing more than a throw in on a trade.  he has very little value on his own

Fitts was the biggest subject on the Sox farm last off-season.  But he just doesn’t seem to last well when thrown into starting roles.  Make him a reliever.  All will be fine…

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If he's pitching well I don't think that's an issue, they've been very very aggresive with pitchers who perform in recent years. 

He's thrown less than 10 regular season innings above A ball. Who knows what he'll look like in the spring. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Fitts was the biggest subject on the Sox farm last off-season.  But he just doesn’t seem to last well when thrown into starting roles.  Make him a reliever.  All will be fine…

1.74 ERA in 4 starts. He got a longer leash in '25 and it wasn't surprising to see the ERA go way up.

Just don't bring up my boy Early and his 2.33 ERA in 4 starts. His secondaries are more developed than Fitts. He shouldn't have a sub 3 in a full season unless his velo really spikes.

[moonslav59]

Ideally, Bello is our #4 and Early plus others fight over the 5 slot, with the losers being depth or used as long men in the pen, but we aren't adding 2 SP'ers.

To me, the focus should be on acquiring a very solid #2 type or even another #1 to go with Crochet. Then, it becomes easier to have Bello as the #3 and the last two slots filled with the better looking from...

Early & Sandoval

Tolle & Crawford

Harrison & Fitts 

Perales might be mid season depth.

I'm thinking Tolle, Criswell and Fitts look like the most likely pen converts, but maybe Crawford will be in the 2026 pen. That would leave the 4-6 starters as Sandoval, Early & Harrison.

[Cameron Tran]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ideally, Bello is our #4 and Early plus others fight over the 5 slot, with the losers being depth or used as long men in the pen, but we aren't adding 2 SP'ers.

To me, the focus should be on acquiring a very solid #2 type or even another #1 to go with Crochet. Then, it becomes easier to have Bello as the #3 and the last two slots filled with the better looking from...

Early & Sandoval

Tolle & Crawford

Harrison & Fitts 

Perales might be mid season depth.

I'm thinking Tolle, Criswell and Fitts look like the most likely pen converts, but maybe Crawford will be in the 2026 pen. That would leave the 4-6 starters as Sandoval, Early & Harrison.

Wouldn't be suprised if Fitts gets the Priester treatment. I'd rather Tolle get more time in AAA to develop secondaries than throw him in the bullpen. Criswell has been awful for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, but great as a starter. Seems like hes more of an AAAA depth guy. If we let Gio go, I wouldn't be too upset with a 5 man of Crochet, adding a number 2, Bello, Early, Harrison. 

[Cameron Tran]

Bryce Miller could be an interesting guy for the Red Sox to trade for. Struggled this year, but was hurt and just dominant against Toronto. Feels like we match up well with outfield depth and Miller or Hancock seems the most likely out of the Seatlle super rotation to get traded. Miller's underlying stats weren't great, but they have a strong farm system and could throw in an interesting prospect. Just a year removed from a sub 3 ERA campaign. He's on my shortlist of starters I'd be happy if the Sox traded for

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Wouldn't be suprised if Fitts gets the Priester treatment. I'd rather Tolle get more time in AAA to develop secondaries than throw him in the bullpen. Criswell has been awful for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, but great as a starter. Seems like hes more of an AAAA depth guy. If we let Gio go, I wouldn't be too upset with a 5 man of Crochet, adding a number 2, Bello, Early, Harrison. 

It’s very possible Sandoval and Crawford are in that rotation…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Bryce Miller could be an interesting guy for the Red Sox to trade for. Struggled this year, but was hurt and just dominant against Toronto. Feels like we match up well with outfield depth and Miller or Hancock seems the most likely out of the Seatlle super rotation to get traded. Miller's underlying stats weren't great, but they have a strong farm system and could throw in an interesting prospect. Just a year removed from a sub 3 ERA campaign. He's on my shortlist of starters I'd be happy if the Sox traded for

Despite last night’s stellar outing, Miller is normally a lot less special away from T-Mobil.  Bryan Woo is far more interesting.

But Seattle has very little depth beyond the MLB rotation.  An outfield-needy team with surplus SP that lines up much better for Boston is Cincinnati…

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Wouldn't be suprised if Fitts gets the Priester treatment. I'd rather Tolle get more time in AAA to develop secondaries than throw him in the bullpen. Criswell has been awful for the Red Sox out of the bullpen, but great as a starter. Seems like hes more of an AAAA depth guy. If we let Gio go, I wouldn't be too upset with a 5 man of Crochet, adding a number 2, Bello, Early, Harrison. 

Weirdly, Criswell got just one start, this year, after doing pretty well in 2024. That start was a good one, then he got demoted and injured. I'm thinking they had a reason to lower him on the rotation depth chart, but we saw first hand, they often got the order wrong, and ended up trading the wrong depth guy, in Priester, so maybe I should not trust them as much as I do.

Ideally, he'd be AAA rotation depth, but he's out of options, and I have to think he'd be claimed if we tried to sneak him through the winter waiver wire. Winckowski, Moran and I Campbell, as well as Hicks are out of options, so something has to give. Some may be traded, but other teams are not looking at most of these guys as players they want to crowd their 40 man rosters with, let alone their 26 man roster, either, but to me only Hicks and I Campbell look like non keepers. I'd trade or DFA both, but it looks like they've committed to giving Hicks a winter to get his act together.

 

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, Cameron Tran said:

Bryce Miller could be an interesting guy for the Red Sox to trade for. Struggled this year, but was hurt and just dominant against Toronto. Feels like we match up well with outfield depth and Miller or Hancock seems the most likely out of the Seatlle super rotation to get traded. Miller's underlying stats weren't great, but they have a strong farm system and could throw in an interesting prospect. Just a year removed from a sub 3 ERA campaign. He's on my shortlist of starters I'd be happy if the Sox traded for

Last year I was high on Woo, and there was talk SEA was open to trading a pitcher. Castillo was the guy most rumored, but Miller was talked about. Now, that SEA's rotation has declined in strength, I'm not sure they trade Miller, unless they get a young pitching prospect back, they like more. I'd be afraid they know our prospects better than we do, and we'd get burned.

I also worry a lot about Alcantara, and all his "upside value."

I'd prefer we go the more safe route, but two things- nothing is safe (see the Gio is a horse idea) and "safe value" is way more expensive than speculative value.

I really liked Ryan, but now I have doubts about him, too. Keller seems steady, but is aging and seems like a 3/4 and not the solid #2 I'm begging for.

[Cameron Tran]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Despite last night’s stellar outing, Miller is normally a lot less special away from T-Mobil.  Bryan Woo is far more interesting.

But Seattle has very little depth beyond the MLB rotation.  An outfield-needy team with surplus SP that lines up much better for Boston is Cincinnati…

It seems unlikely the Mariners trade Woo after the season he just had. Honestly if we could get Kirby from them that would be great. Outside of Seattle, Joe Ryan obviously intrests me, but I'm not sure the Twins are willing to give him up right now. Mitch Keller is under contract until 2029 and only 29. I'd test the waters on Jared Jones, particularly if we give them a few major league ready bats (Abreu, plus Garcia and I'd throw Campbell in for Jones). I'd be interested in Nick Lodolo but I'm weary about adding another lefty to the rotation. I'd talk to the Rays about Ryan Pepiot, but I'm not sure they'd be willing to move him. Tanner Bibee from Cleveladn would be fun, not sure how much they value him though and wouldn't be suprised if they valued him pretty heavily. Logan Allen and Luis Ortiz are also both young and controllable, and would probably be lower in cost. I'd call the Royals, maybe we could convince them to part ways with Ragans or Bubic.

[Cameron Tran]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Weirdly, Criswell got just one start, this year, after doing pretty well in 2024. That start was a good one, then he got demoted and injured. I'm thinking they had a reason to lower him on the rotation depth chart, but we saw first hand, they often got the order wrong, and ended up trading the wrong depth guy, in Priester, so maybe I should not trust them as much as I do.

Ideally, he'd be AAA rotation depth, but he's out of options, and I have to think he'd be claimed if we tried to sneak him through the winter waiver wire. Winckowski, Moran and I Campbell, as well as Hicks are out of options, so something has to give. Some may be traded, but other teams are not looking at most of these guys as players they want to crowd their 40 man rosters with, let alone their 26 man roster, either, but to me only Hicks and I Campbell look like non keepers. I'd trade or DFA both, but it looks like they've committed to giving Hicks a winter to get his act together.

 

Wink, Moran, Campbell are all probably going to be DFA'd. Hicks still has a lot of money tied to him (2 years, 12.5 AAV), so they're probably going to give him the longest leash. 

[Cameron Tran]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Last year I was high on Woo, and there was talk SEA was open to trading a pitcher. Castillo was the guy most rumored, but Miller was talked about. Now, that SEA's rotation has declined in strength, I'm not sure they trade Miller, unless they get a young pitching prospect back, they like more. I'd be afraid they know our prospects better than we do, and we'd get burned.

I also worry a lot about Alcantara, and all his "upside value."

I'd prefer we go the more safe route, but two things- nothing is safe (see the Gio is a horse idea) and "safe value" is way more expensive than speculative value.

I really liked Ryan, but now I have doubts about him, too. Keller seems steady, but is aging and seems like a 3/4 and not the solid #2 I'm begging for.

How much faith do you have in other teams valuation of our prospects? I feel like we know our prospects pretty well, and haven't really gotten burnt much in the past few years, but I definitely do think we hover around the top 10 in that regard. Breslow really hasn't made any big mistakes with our prospects yet (not that he's been super aggresive). This will be a big year for his regime.