Red Sox 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mvp 78]

44 minutes ago, notin said:

My understanding is they use multiple projections somehow.  Its a secret guarded as closely as the KFC spice combination that can make lumps of space age polymers taste like heavily salted chicken…

I don't believe it. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I guess that settles that. If he'd waive the 10/5 thingy, maybe add Yoshida and a few $million and call it even?

man...you've really got it in for Duran. 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think we have to expect further decline from Duran.

haven't seen you say a word about Buxton's decline. and he's THREE years older than Duran.

Buxton played 126 games this year -31 less than Duran. he played in 102 last year. not counting 2020, he's averaged 83 games a year over the last 7 years. yeah....who doesn't want a guy who can't even play half a season every year.

 

[mvp 78]

25 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

haven't seen you say a word about Buxton's decline. and he's THREE years older than Duran.

Buxton played 126 games this year -31 less than Duran. he played in 102 last year. not counting 2020, he's averaged 83 games a year over the last 7 years. yeah....who doesn't want a guy who can't even play half a season every year.

 

Buxton is coming off his best season of all time, but even then he STILL missed time due to an injury. He had a career high PA's last season at age 31 playing in 126 G. Well rested or made of glass? He's averaged 90 games/year since becoming a fulltime MLBer (ignoring 2020). 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

man...you've really got it in for Duran. 

I really like Duran. Honestly, I do. I also see he has enormous trade value and should add more value to another team without 3-5 OF'ers on their roster without him. I think the step "down" to Rafaela/Anthony/Abreu is minimal, and Duran at DH is less value to us that Duran as a LF'er to another team. (We also have Yoshida, Romy, Campbell and other bat first players on the roster.)

We desperately need a #2, since I think Gio bolts or is to uncertain, if he returns.

We desperately need a corner infielder who can hit 30+ HRs. If Breggie bolts, we need two.

Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony have more years of control and project to improve not decline. We have Jh Garcia, Campbell and emergency OF'ers Yoshida and Eaton as depth. We have little corner IF depth and while we have rotation depth, we need a strong #2.

Tell me where I went wrong on Duran? It's because I value him highly, I think we can get a #2 SP'er or a big bat corner infielder for him. ( A bigger bat but without the speed and maybe a worse defender.)

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

haven't seen you say a word about Buxton's decline. and he's THREE years older than Duran.

Buxton played 126 games this year -31 less than Duran. he played in 102 last year. not counting 2020, he's averaged 83 games a year over the last 7 years. yeah....who doesn't want a guy who can't even play half a season every year.

 

I agree I'm reaching on Buxton. The main point of getting him was to help MN cut salary and make the return for Ryan not be as high. I'm not saying Buxton is a salary dump player, but I did include Hicks or Masa in the deal, which offsets some of the risk on Buxton.

Yes, Buxton may decline, but he has gotten better while Duran did not.

I'm fine with not including Buxton.

How about Duran, Crawford, Hicks, Wong and some young pitchers for Ryan, Jeffries and Lopez?

[mvp 78]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Tell me where I went wrong on Duran? It's because I value him highly, I think we can get a #2 SP'er or a big bat corner infielder for him. ( A bigger bat but without the speed and maybe a worse defender.)

They may have to add a prospect to sweeten the deal for a #2 TBH.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They may have to add a prospect to sweeten the deal for a #2 TBH.

Yes, I expect that. I'm hoping not Early or Tolle.

We'd need two with Abreu or Rafaela.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I expect that. I'm hoping not Early or Tolle.

We'd need two with Abreu or Rafaela.

Early or Tolle are legitimate tradeable pieces. The guys left in the minors all are much lesser prospects or are Luis Perales (injury concern, running out of options, lack of professional innings). Sox need to weigh how they can add vs what they can take away. I'd rather not give anything up, but it may not be realistic if they want to be a WS contender in this window.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Early or Tolle are legitimate tradeable pieces. The guys left in the minors all are much lesser prospects or are Luis Perales (injury concern, running out of options, lack of professional innings). Sox need to weigh how they can add vs what they can take away. I'd rather not give anything up, but it may not be realistic if they want to be a WS contender in this window.

I think we will try to couple Duran with Harrison or Crawford or maybe even Dobbins before we allow Tolle or Early into the offer.  I'm not sure what sort of trade value Perales has, until he's shown he's back healthy, but including him is another option. Guys like Criswell, Sandlin, Mullins and Uberstine have little trade value.

It seems like teams no longer beg for far away, high upside pitching prospects, anymore, but Valera, Fajardo, Clarke and Holobetz all have some serious upside potential, but I'm not sure I want to sell low on any of them.

I do think our management team needs to identify who they can part with, and just hope he's not the next Priester.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I do think our management team needs to identify who they can part with, and just hope he's not the next Priester.

Priester is currently sporting a 54.00 ERA in the playoffs for the Brew Crew. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Priester is currently sporting a 54.00 ERA in the playoffs for the Brew Crew. 

Yup and Sale's is N/A

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Any respectable GM willing to deal a solid MLB starting pitcher will expect at least one good pitching prospect in return.

To get a guy like Ryan or even Lopez in a winter trade, the Sox won't have to part with four of their top 20 comparable to what it took to land Crochet -- but it's still going to be painful.

BTV is only a guide, and the Twins already turned down a package that possibly included Garcia, Arias and Tolle last summer -- according to Brez, who didn't name names, but implied all minor leaguers were available.

Then one beat reporter (Pete Abe?) said recently someone wanted Early, but was turned down.

Duran and Abreu are quality trade chips, but neither pitches, so if the Sox do land a #2, expect either Tolle or Early to be gone.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

They may have to add a prospect to sweeten the deal for a #2 TBH.

No team is giving up a #2 for Duran.

Teams acquiring Duran are doing so because they want to win now or in the immediate future.  Teams trying to win in the short term dont trade away their second best starter..

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Any respectable GM willing to deal a solid MLB starting pitcher will expect at least one good pitching prospect in return.

To get a guy like Ryan or even Lopez in a winter trade, the Sox won't have to part with four of their top 20 comparable to what it took to land Crochet -- but it's still going to be painful.

BTV is only a guide, and the Twins already turned down a package that possibly included Garcia, Arias and Tolle last summer -- according to Brez, who didn't name names, but implied all minor leaguers were available.

Then one beat reporter (Pete Abe?) said recently someone wanted Early, but was turned down.

Duran and Abreu are quality trade chips, but neither pitches, so if the Sox do land a #2, expect either Tolle or Early to be gone.

These teams may not want farther away guys like Valera, Clarke, Fajardo or Holobetz. They may think Perales is too big a risk. If it comes down to Early or Tolle, I'm thinking long and hard before accepting the deal.

I'm not sure how much these teams value Harrison, Fitts or Dobbins and Crawford, but one of them could be included instead of a top prospect.

One point that jumps out to me is that we have so many pitchers that almost any GM will be attracted to one or two of them. The other major point is that we have to be sure we don't give up the "wrong one," but who are we to know which one that is. Early looks like he's the keeper, but a month ago, we'd have said Tolle.

Having another tier beyond these guys listed that includes Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Travieso & Delzine, but too far away to seriously consider does help ease the idea of parting with 1-2 young pitchers.

I did not mention throw-in types like Wink, Sandlin, Mullins, Uberstine, Paez and maybe Aita, Monegro & Cason..

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

No team is giving up a #2 for Duran.

Teams acquiring Duran are doing so because they want to win now or in the immediate future.  Teams trying to win in the short term dont trade away their second best starter..

Abreu or Rafaela better fit that situation, or we involve a 3rd team. If the names Garcia, Arias and Tolle was legit, it does point away from Duran for Ryan. I'm wondering if the name Tolle was the reason for Brez's "no."

You can't just sub two next tier pitchers to replace Tolle (or Early) but maybe MN likes some guys we'd be surprised with.

[jdc69]

10 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I'm on your side. I think it's better for this team full of all-or-nothing swingers to acquire more .300 hitters with 20-home run power like Bichette and Yandy Diaz, rather than 40 HR guys like Suarez who also K 200 times.

The last thing this batting order needs is another big whiffer.

 

And Yoshida was one of the heroes and he's not an all or nothing hitter.

[moonslav59]

Would you rather have a .300 batter with a .350 OBP or .275 and .375?

How about .300 with 10 Hrs vs .275 with 25 Hrs? (Same OBP)

[notin]

11 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't believe it. 

You would if your heart was pure…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Would you rather have a .300 batter with a .350 OBP or .275 and .375?

How about .300 with 10 Hrs vs .275 with 25 Hrs? (Same OBP)

For me, it depends how batters are making their outs, because a guy who strikes out 25% or more of his ABs has no chance of even making contact to move a baserunner a quarter of the time -- an affliction at epidemic levels for Boston in 2025.

A walk isn't as good as a hit, because it can only move a baserunner one base at a time. It does up the pitch count, however...

[notin]

18 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Any respectable GM willing to deal a solid MLB starting pitcher will expect at least one good pitching prospect in return.

To get a guy like Ryan or even Lopez in a winter trade, the Sox won't have to part with four of their top 20 comparable to what it took to land Crochet -- but it's still going to be painful.

BTV is only a guide, and the Twins already turned down a package that possibly included Garcia, Arias and Tolle last summer -- according to Brez, who didn't name names, but implied all minor leaguers were available.

Then one beat reporter (Pete Abe?) said recently someone wanted Early, but was turned down.

Duran and Abreu are quality trade chips, but neither pitches, so if the Sox do land a #2, expect either Tolle or Early to be gone.

What about whatever prospect talent is acquired for dealing Duran/Abreu?

Also what is a #2?  I think most people say “#2” but they really mean “co-ace to slot behind your best pitcher”…

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

What about whatever prospect talent is acquired for dealing Duran/Abreu?

Also what is a #2?  I think most people say “#2” but they really mean “co-ace to slot behind your best pitcher”…

The pitcher numbering thing is silly yet somehow irresistible, or maybe unavoidable is the right word.

There's a perfectly logical statistical answer to what is a #2.  A #2 is in the top 20% to top 40% of starters.  An average #2 would be around the 30% mark.

 

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The pitcher numbering thing is silly yet somehow irresistible, or maybe unavoidable is the right word.

There's a perfectly logical statistical answer to what is a #2.  A #2 is in the top 20% to top 40% of starters.  An average #2 would be around the 30% mark.

 

Last year that put pitchers from 2.5 fWAR to 3.4 fWAR on the #2 radar (minimum 120 IP).

Connelly Early was worth 1.1 fWAR in just NINETEEN INNINGS PITCHED. Why would the Sox have to trade him for Joe Ryan?  Theyre probably better off with Early.

Brady Singer was worth 2.5 fWAR in 2024 and 2.9 fWAR in 2025.  In between those seasons as a #2 starter he was dealt straight up for Jonathan India.  But we can’t get one for Duran?

If the Twins think Joe Ryan, who is about as special as a pitcher as his extremely mundane name is, is worth a massive prospect haul, move on.  There are other #2 pitchers available for a much smaller return…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Seeing Skubal and Crochet in the postseason really defines the term ace. Without looking at stats, they might both be top five guys in the AL MVP (after Raleigh, Judge and Ramirez). 

It's hard to imagine any staff where a club has "co-aces" equivalent to Skubal and Crochet -- they'd have to be heavy favorites to go all the way.

How's this for the Red Sox definition of a #2: better than Bello? p.s. and not just statistically... he'd have to be someone fans would trust to get a playoff start...

[notin]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seeing Skubal and Crochet in the postseason really defines the term ace. Without looking at stats, they might both be top five guys in the AL MVP (after Raleigh, Judge and Ramirez). 

It's hard to imagine any staff where a club has "co-aces" equivalent to Skubal and Crochet -- they'd have to be heavy favorites to go all the way.

How's this for the Red Sox definition of a #2: better than Bello? p.s. and not just statistically... he'd have to be someone fans would trust to get a playoff start...

Using Skubal and Crochet as the definition of aces is like using Rolls Royce as the definition of an automobile.  Why not use a more practical example, like Philly had with Sánchez, Luzardo, Suarez and Wheeler, all of who finished in the top 12 in fWAR for starting pitchers?

That definition of a #2, I’ll be blunt, is useless.  Why bother having the label if it is solely a matter of opinion?  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For me, it depends how batters are making their outs, because a guy who strikes out 25% or more of his ABs has no chance of even making contact to move a baserunner a quarter of the time -- an affliction at epidemic levels for Boston in 2025.

A walk isn't as good as a hit, because it can only move a baserunner one base at a time. It does up the pitch count, however...

Assume equal K rates, GIDP and outs that advance runners.

[notin]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Seeing Skubal and Crochet in the postseason really defines the term ace. Without looking at stats, they might both be top five guys in the AL MVP (after Raleigh, Judge and Ramirez). 

It's hard to imagine any staff where a club has "co-aces" equivalent to Skubal and Crochet -- they'd have to be heavy favorites to go all the way.

How's this for the Red Sox definition of a #2: better than Bello? p.s. and not just statistically... he'd have to be someone fans would trust to get a playoff start...

All so, nice call on the WAR.  Crochet didnt make the top 5, but it was close.

1. Judge 10.1

2. Raleigh 9.1

3. Witt 8.0

4.  Skubal 6.6

5. Ramirez 6.4

6. Crochet 5.8

[moonslav59]

I agree with Bell. A #1 is basically a top 20% SP'er. (Top 30 among 150 SP'ers in MLB.)

A number 2 is about a top 20-40% SP'er, and so on...

Yes, a team can have 2-3 #1's.

To me, and "ace" is sometimes used to define your best pitcher. He could be your best starter on a team with 3 #1, of the best pitcher on a team with nobody higher than the #3 ranking (#40-60%.) The term "ace" is also used to define a #1 SP'er, so there is some mixing of the terms.

I rate Ryan as a solid #2. Yes, Early could be a #2 as early as 2026, so I would not include him in a Ryan trade, and Ryan's drop off to end this season is worrisome, as well. I'd rate Keller as a #3, but a reliable one who is borderline #2, when you rank all the top 120 SP'ers in MLB. He's in the top 60 in most categories.

When you attempt to rank the SP'ers by stats or metrics, the sample size choice is arbitrary. Is it last year, last 2 years, last 3 years.... Do you discount for aging pitchers in obvious decline, or add value to a younger pitcher who had a bad season early in his career that is part of the chosen sample size being used. If you use fWAR over the past 3 years, it will devalue a great young pitcher who has just 1-2 years in a rotation. It will reward a 36 year old pitcher who had a great year at age 34 and then sharply declined. 

That being said, for most pitchers, I like the 3 year sample size, and if I want a 120 SP'ers (I avoided using 150) sample size from 2023-2025, I need to use 240 IP as the minimum IP.

Here is what we come up with for fWAR:

15.9 Skubal, 15.3 Wheeler, 14.9 Webb, 12.8 C Sanchez  & S Gray

10.8-12.4: Gausman, Valdez, Sale, Cease, Kirby

9.9-12.4: Skenes, Crochet, Fried, Luzardo, R Suarez

9.4-9.6: Lopez, Wacha, Gilbert, H Brown, C Ragans

8.7-9.1: Snell, Gallen, Peralta, Glasnow, Eovaldi

8.2-8.7: Kikuchi, Ryan, H Greene, Bibee, Castillo

I don't really see anyone that jumps out as not belonging, but there are a few pitchers I would say belong in the top 30 not listed here.

If you use ERA- not fWAR, we see a lot of juggling, and some 13 new names, but many of the same guys top 30:

Skenes, Skubla, Snell, Yamo, Bradish

Sale, Wheeler, Cole, Sanchez, Fried

Senga, Crochet, Kershaw, King, Burnes

Greene, Steele, Eovaldi, Abbott, Ragans

Webb, Imanaga, Peralta, Valdez, M Kelly

Blanco, Glasnow, Woo, Suarez, Wacha

I kinda think the ERA- list has better pitchers than fWAR, but maybe I'm biased.

Here are some selected #2's by ERA-

Lugo, Gray, Pivetta, Lopez, Castillo, Bello, Bassitt

#3's: Keller at #63 (98 ERA-) Rodon, Eflin, Gio and those at 100 or more: ERod, Cease, Houck, Crawford, Mony

#4s: Jon Gray, Heaney, M Perez, Alcantara, Severino, Gibson

Sox pitchers and winter targets by fWAR, not listed above:

33. Keller 7.9 (63rd in ERA-)

37. Flaherty 7.6

38. Eflin 7.4

39. Bassitt 7.3

44. M Kelly 6.9

51. King 6.1

54. Bello 5.6 (53rd in ERA-)

67. Monty 4.9

71. Houck 4.7 (80th in ERA-)

85. Crawford 4.0 (86th)

 

[notin]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree with Bell. A #1 is basically a top 20% SP'er. (Top 30 among 150 SP'ers in MLB.)

A number 2 is about a top 20-40% SP'er, and so on...

Yes, a team can have 2-3 #1's.

To me, and "ace" is sometimes used to define your best pitcher. He could be your best starter on a team with 3 #1, of the best pitcher on a team with nobody higher than the #3 ranking (#40-60%.) The term "ace" is also used to define a #1 SP'er, so there is some mixing of the terms.

I rate Ryan as a solid #2. Yes, Early could be a #2 as early as 2026, so I would not include him in a Ryan trade, and Ryan's drop off to end this season is worrisome, as well. I'd rate Keller as a #3, but a reliable one who is borderline #2, when you rank all the top 120 SP'ers in MLB. He's in the top 60 in most categories.

When you attempt to rank the SP'ers by stats or metrics, the sample size choice is arbitrary. Is it last year, last 2 years, last 3 years.... Do you discount for aging pitchers in obvious decline, or add value to a younger pitcher who had a bad season early in his career that is part of the chosen sample size being used. If you use fWAR over the past 3 years, it will devalue a great young pitcher who has just 1-2 years in a rotation. It will reward a 36 year old pitcher who had a great year at age 34 and then sharply declined. 

That being said, for most pitchers, I like the 3 year sample size, and if I want a 120 SP'ers (I avoided using 150) sample size from 2023-2025, I need to use 240 IP as the minimum IP.

Here is what we come up with for fWAR:

15.9 Skubal, 15.3 Wheeler, 14.9 Webb, 12.8 C Sanchez  & S Gray

10.8-12.4: Gausman, Valdez, Sale, Cease, Kirby

9.9-12.4: Skenes, Crochet, Fried, Luzardo, R Suarez

9.4-9.6: Lopez, Wacha, Gilbert, H Brown, C Ragans

8.7-9.1: Snell, Gallen, Peralta, Glasnow, Eovaldi

8.2-8.7: Kikuchi, Ryan, H Greene, Bibee, Castillo

I don't really see anyone that jumps out as not belonging, but there are a few pitchers I would say belong in the top 30 not listed here.

If you use ERA- not fWAR, we see a lot of juggling, and some 13 new names, but many of the same guys top 30:

Skenes, Skubla, Snell, Yamo, Bradish

Sale, Wheeler, Cole, Sanchez, Fried

Senga, Crochet, Kershaw, King, Burnes

Greene, Steele, Eovaldi, Abbott, Ragans

Webb, Imanaga, Peralta, Valdez, M Kelly

Blanco, Glasnow, Woo, Suarez, Wacha

I kinda think the ERA- list has better pitchers than fWAR, but maybe I'm biased.

Here are some selected #2's by ERA-

Lugo, Gray, Pivetta, Lopez, Castillo, Bello, Bassitt

#3's: Keller at #63 (98 ERA-) Rodon, Eflin, Gio and those at 100 or more: ERod, Cease, Houck, Crawford, Mony

#4s: Jon Gray, Heaney, M Perez, Alcantara, Severino, Gibson

Sox pitchers and winter targets by fWAR, not listed above:

33. Keller 7.9 (63rd in ERA-)

37. Flaherty 7.6

38. Eflin 7.4

39. Bassitt 7.3

44. M Kelly 6.9

51. King 6.1

54. Bello 5.6 (53rd in ERA-)

67. Monty 4.9

71. Houck 4.7 (80th in ERA-)

85. Crawford 4.0 (86th)

 

I avoided the ERA-/ERA+ metric because pitchers do not become more talented due to defenses behind them.  But it’s not like one year of fWAR isnt without flaws either.

The bottom line to me is - the Sox can use this off-season to upgrade their SP, but there are multiple ways to go so beyond the fictional #2 starter.  The Sox will have 11 SPs on their 40 man roster once the off-season starts (a number that includes Houck because he has to be there from December through March) so they can part either a pitching prospect if necessary, although loving one or two to the bullpen is probably smarter.

Of these 9 pitchers ( not listing Houck or the recently activated RHP Luis Perales), the ones I would consider trading (in order) are:

1. Harrison

2. Crawford

3. Fitts (but I prefer simply putting him in the bullpen)

4. Dobbins

5. Bello

6. Sandoval

7. Tolle

8. Early

9. Crochet

Adding another starter isn’t tantamount, but it wouldn’t hurt.  
 

But rather than calling for some sort of co-ace, another (smarter?) strategy is build up the bullpen and just add an innings eater.  It doesn’t agree with anyone postseason plans, but starting pitching in the postseason is different anyway and often includes quick hooks to the bullpen.

I kept reading about Bello’s “awful” start, but 2 ER in 2 IP isnt horrible.  Heck in the Cubs-Brewers series, that would be elite…

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree with Bell. A #1 is basically a top 20% SP'er. (Top 30 among 150 SP'ers in MLB.)

A number 2 is about a top 20-40% SP'er, and so on...

Yes, a team can have 2-3 #1's.

To me, and "ace" is sometimes used to define your best pitcher. He could be your best starter on a team with 3 #1, of the best pitcher on a team with nobody higher than the #3 ranking (#40-60%.) The term "ace" is also used to define a #1 SP'er, so there is some mixing of the terms.

I rate Ryan as a solid #2. Yes, Early could be a #2 as early as 2026, so I would not include him in a Ryan trade, and Ryan's drop off to end this season is worrisome, as well. I'd rate Keller as a #3, but a reliable one who is borderline #2, when you rank all the top 120 SP'ers in MLB. He's in the top 60 in most categories.

When you attempt to rank the SP'ers by stats or metrics, the sample size choice is arbitrary. Is it last year, last 2 years, last 3 years.... Do you discount for aging pitchers in obvious decline, or add value to a younger pitcher who had a bad season early in his career that is part of the chosen sample size being used. If you use fWAR over the past 3 years, it will devalue a great young pitcher who has just 1-2 years in a rotation. It will reward a 36 year old pitcher who had a great year at age 34 and then sharply declined. 

That being said, for most pitchers, I like the 3 year sample size, and if I want a 120 SP'ers (I avoided using 150) sample size from 2023-2025, I need to use 240 IP as the minimum IP.

Here is what we come up with for fWAR:

15.9 Skubal, 15.3 Wheeler, 14.9 Webb, 12.8 C Sanchez  & S Gray

10.8-12.4: Gausman, Valdez, Sale, Cease, Kirby

9.9-12.4: Skenes, Crochet, Fried, Luzardo, R Suarez

9.4-9.6: Lopez, Wacha, Gilbert, H Brown, C Ragans

8.7-9.1: Snell, Gallen, Peralta, Glasnow, Eovaldi

8.2-8.7: Kikuchi, Ryan, H Greene, Bibee, Castillo

I don't really see anyone that jumps out as not belonging, but there are a few pitchers I would say belong in the top 30 not listed here.

If you use ERA- not fWAR, we see a lot of juggling, and some 13 new names, but many of the same guys top 30:

Skenes, Skubla, Snell, Yamo, Bradish

Sale, Wheeler, Cole, Sanchez, Fried

Senga, Crochet, Kershaw, King, Burnes

Greene, Steele, Eovaldi, Abbott, Ragans

Webb, Imanaga, Peralta, Valdez, M Kelly

Blanco, Glasnow, Woo, Suarez, Wacha

I kinda think the ERA- list has better pitchers than fWAR, but maybe I'm biased.

Here are some selected #2's by ERA-

Lugo, Gray, Pivetta, Lopez, Castillo, Bello, Bassitt

#3's: Keller at #63 (98 ERA-) Rodon, Eflin, Gio and those at 100 or more: ERod, Cease, Houck, Crawford, Mony

#4s: Jon Gray, Heaney, M Perez, Alcantara, Severino, Gibson

Sox pitchers and winter targets by fWAR, not listed above:

33. Keller 7.9 (63rd in ERA-)

37. Flaherty 7.6

38. Eflin 7.4

39. Bassitt 7.3

44. M Kelly 6.9

51. King 6.1

54. Bello 5.6 (53rd in ERA-)

67. Monty 4.9

71. Houck 4.7 (80th in ERA-)

85. Crawford 4.0 (86th)

 

That is a lot of work, and makes me want to trade for Sonny Gray even more now. Plus, sign Cease or Suarez (because Dombro "can't keep them all").

Other factors: with elbow ligaments so fragile these days, these days have to be considered more important than last year's or two years ago. Example: Trevor Rogers, as a guy who's arrived...

... also, maybe no stats quite capture the aura of certain stoppers in the postseason -- I'm thinking of Steinbrenner complaining that his front office let the Red Sox get Schilling, who he called "a warrior." 

For teams that want to go deep in October -- and isn't that the point -- I also have to favor Dave Stewart over Roger Clemens... at least, when they face each other.