Take a bow Mr Breslow

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

23 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Most of the contract length covers what would have been his pre-arb and arb years, and he will make more under this deal on the front end. Players should appreciate that, as they can live the high life 3-5 years earlier, and if they invest their early earning well, they can end up doing better than waiting it out.

He should also realize his pay is influenced by injury risk.

But players never think that way.  Trent Williams insisted on a front loaded contract, near the end he was not paid as one of the top OTs and he held out, claiming that earlier money (per his request) was "in the past".   

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Needs to win something first. 

He didn’t win your heart?

[notin]

16 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

So this team should be better than .500 then? Great! 

Saying it's the best team since 2021 isn't exactly strong praise. 

It’s the most fun team to watch since 2018.  That mean  anything?

[mvp 78]

30 minutes ago, notin said:

He didn’t win your heart?

Impossible to do. 

[mvp 78]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s the most fun team to watch since 2018.  That mean  anything?

That's not the argument moon made though. He just said most wins since 2021. Not a huge bar to clear IMO.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

But players never think that way.  Trent Williams insisted on a front loaded contract, near the end he was not paid as one of the top OTs and he held out, claiming that earlier money (per his request) was "in the past".   

Young MLB players sign these deals precisely to get paid more early and to hedge against injury or sucking.

[moonslav59]

Maybe 2025 turns into another 2021- just a quick up season before going back to losing. 

I'm not saying I wasn't encouraged after 2021 and going into 2022, but I feel much better about our extended future, now than I did then. We had just come off that horrific 2020 season and had many of the same concerns: aging stars, big contracts expiring and needing to be renewed or replaces, and a stingy owner who did very little added spending for 2022.

We may see JH gets stingy, this winter. I've given up expecting a big spending winter, but last winter did give me some hope. (Then, we dumped Devers, so now I'm back to flipping coins.)

This is a fun team to watch: so was 2021. We still had JD, Vaz, Bogey, Nate and ERod... all coming up on paydays and some in decline, already. Our farm did not look great, especially with ML ready players.

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe 2025 turns into another 2021- just a quick up season before going back to losing. 

I'm not saying I wasn't encouraged after 2021 and going into 2022, but I feel much better about our extended future, now than I did then. We had just come off that horrific 2020 season and had many of the same concerns: aging stars, big contracts expiring and needing to be renewed or replaces, and a stingy owner who did very little added spending for 2022.

We may see JH gets stingy, this winter. I've given up expecting a big spending winter, but last winter did give me some hope. (Then, we dumped Devers, so now I'm back to flipping coins.)

Dumping Devers should not alter your view on the spending.  They've been proven right that it was a move to help the team.

I can't see being nervous about Henry these days when you look at the large and long investments in Crochet and Anthony on top of Bello, Rafaela and Campbell.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dumping Devers should not alter your view on the spending.  They've been proven right that it was a move to help the team.

I can't see being nervous about Henry these days when you look at the large and long investments in Crochet and Anthony on top of Bello, Rafaela and Campbell.

Dumping Devers nearly negated what JH spent, last winter. Of course I worry, if he'll be stingy, this winter. It's ingrained in our DNA, now and since 2019.

The extensions kick in in 2026 and Bello & Rafaela's start increasing soon afterwards. Duran has an option or arb, which can be costly. We have to bring Bregman back and either Chapman or another top closer to just stay even with 2025. Also, Gio and to a lesser extent Refsnyder & Wilson.

We can't just stay even. That never works.

 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Dumping Devers nearly negated what JH spent, last winter. Of course I worry, if he'll be stingy, this winter. It's ingrained in our DNA, now and since 2019.

The extensions kick in in 2026 and Bello & Rafaela's start increasing soon afterwards. Duran has an option or arb, which can be costly. We have to bring Bregman back and either Chapman or another top closer to just stay even with 2025. Also, Gio and to a lesser extent Refsnyder & Wilson.

We can't just stay even. That never works.

 

moon, we've never seen a flurry of extensions to young players like this.  Never.  Not even close.  Ownership is investing in the team's future in a big way.  

My DNA is feeling pretty good these days, personally.  

[Nick]

This is fun team to watch because the team FINALLY brought up Anthony.

It's fun to watch because every fifth game, we get to see an ace, Crochet. Better yet, we get to see him for next 6 years.

It's fun to watch because in Bregman, we truly have a power bat and a good glove at 3B and provides leadership to our younger players. 

It's fun to watch because 9th inning belongs to Chapman, who has never been better. Talk all you want but we need to get him back for couple of more years.

It's fun to watch because the team is all about winning right now. Everyone is all in. 

It's fun to watch because we don't have anyone telling the management no way I'm going to switch positions. Devers will be forever remembered as a selfish dude. 

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

moon, we've never seen a flurry of extensions to young players like this.  Never.  Not even close.  Ownership is investing in the team's future in a big way.  

My DNA is feeling pretty good these days, personally.  

I'm trying to be optimistic, but when it comes to spending more, I'm not setting myself up for another letdown.

As it stands now, adding all the extensions and extensions and keeping Bregman, Gio and Chapman will get us real close to the line. If we trade Abreu and prospects for Ryan, we would be at the line or over with nothing left for 2B, 1B (Lowe's $11M arb?) and pen additions.

We basically need JH to spend to the second tax line. The fact that he agreed to pay prospects long extensions is different from paying large and long for big FAs or going $19M over the tax line in year two (w heavy taxes.)

I'll believe it when I see it, but I think JH would like us to reset in 2026.

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The fact that he agreed to pay prospects long extensions is different from paying large and long for big FAs or going $19M over the tax line in year two (w heavy taxes.)

Financially speaking, there's no difference between extensions and FA contracts.     

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Financially speaking, there's no difference between extensions and FA contracts.     

Okay. They both add up and we are close to the tax line just bringing the same team back, even without Buehler & Hendriks. That is without Devers, too.

We are over the tax line, this year, so the taxes will be at year 2 rates.

Crochet $3.8M >$28.3M

Anthony $458K> $16.3M

Campbell $1.3M>$7.5M

Rafaela and Bello keep the same AAV, but make $4.5M more in 2026.

Duran cost $3.8M and will make $8M option or arb raise.

Lowe cost us $1-2M, this year and if we go to arb, maybe $10-12M in 2026.

Bregman has a $31.7M tax hit in 2025 and ___??? in 2026.

Chapman $12M to ___???

Gio $19.3 to ___???

Losing the contracts of Devers, Buehler, Hendriks, Wilson and maybe Refsnyder puts a big dent in those increases, but I don't see a lot of added spending happening, this winter.

I hope I'm wrong, but going $19M over the tax line might be a dream.

[Nick]

53 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay. They both add up and we are close to the tax line just bringing the same team back, even without Buehler & Hendriks. That is without Devers, too.

We are over the tax line, this year, so the taxes will be at year 2 rates.

Crochet $3.8M >$28.3M

Anthony $458K> $16.3M

Campbell $1.3M>$7.5M

Rafaela and Bello keep the same AAV, but make $4.5M more in 2026.

Duran cost $3.8M and will make $8M option or arb raise.

Lowe cost us $1-2M, this year and if we go to arb, maybe $10-12M in 2026.

Bregman has a $31.7M tax hit in 2025 and ___??? in 2026.

Chapman $12M to ___???

Gio $19.3 to ___???

Losing the contracts of Devers, Buehler, Hendriks, Wilson and maybe Refsnyder puts a big dent in those increases, but I don't see a lot of added spending happening, this winter.

I hope I'm wrong, but going $19M over the tax line might be a dream.

Basically we're at $244M this year.

Big ticket items coming off would be Buehler ($21M), Giolito ($19), Chapman ($10.75M) and Hendricks ($5M) for total of $56M. 

That needs to be reduced by Crochet ($24M) and Anthony (16M).

So the net savings would be $16M.

I see no way we'll have the 'same' team with $16M budget. We need to replace Giolito and Chapman. That alone would get us $20M over the $244M luxury tax limit. 

And let's not forget what additional money it would take to redo Bregman's contract. 

Obviously we have no idea what Sandoval can do. Can he be equal to Giolito?

I would suggest to Bres to make the Joe Ryan deal work out and shed some salary. He'll be in his first year of arbitration. 

I'd like for our starting rotation to look, Crochet, Bello, Giolito, Sandoval, Ryan, Tolle, Crawford, Houck. 

[cp176]

3 minutes ago, Nick said:

Basically we're at $244M this year.

Big ticket items coming off would be Buehler ($21M), Giolito ($19), Chapman ($10.75M) and Hendricks ($5M) for total of $56M. 

That needs to be reduced by Crochet ($24M) and Anthony (16M).

So the net savings would be $16M.

I see no way we'll have the 'same' team with $16M budget. We need to replace Giolito and Chapman. That alone would get us $20M over the $244M luxury tax limit. 

And let's not forget what additional money it would take to redo Bregman's contract. 

Obviously we have no idea what Sandoval can do. Can he be equal to Giolito?

I would suggest to Bres to make the Joe Ryan deal work out and shed some salary. He'll be in his first year of arbitration. 

I'd like for our starting rotation to look, Crochet, Bello, Giolito, Sandoval, Ryan, Tolle, Crawford, Houck. 

I like what you are saying here.  I’d add Dobbins to the starting rotation mix if he is ready to go next spring.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

Basically we're at $244M this year.

Big ticket items coming off would be Buehler ($21M), Giolito ($19), Chapman ($10.75M) and Hendricks ($5M) for total of $56M. 

That needs to be reduced by Crochet ($24M) and Anthony (16M).

So the net savings would be $16M.

I see no way we'll have the 'same' team with $16M budget. We need to replace Giolito and Chapman. That alone would get us $20M over the $244M luxury tax limit. 

And let's not forget what additional money it would take to redo Bregman's contract. 

Obviously we have no idea what Sandoval can do. Can he be equal to Giolito?

I would suggest to Bres to make the Joe Ryan deal work out and shed some salary. He'll be in his first year of arbitration. 

I'd like for our starting rotation to look, Crochet, Bello, Giolito, Sandoval, Ryan, Tolle, Crawford, Houck. 

The money issue may be the main reason we trade for a solid SP'er rather than try to sign one. The logjam on the OF is the other major reason.

I agree on Bregman and Chapman needed for 2026, and that is just to remain even and not improve. (Both may not do as well as this year, anyway.)

I hope we don't think Sandoval, Dobbins, Crawford, Criswell & harrison can and will replace Gio, Buehler, Houck and others who got starts in 2025.

Ideally, we add a solid SP'er AND bring back Gio. 

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Financially speaking, there's no difference between extensions and FA contracts.     

Except that one involves spending less money on someone that can potentially improve and the other involves spending more money on someone who is more likely to decline.

Even bad early extensions are rarely prohibitive.  Kristian Campbell may never be a star (he will be one), but even if he becomes an average player or a good super utility player, that’s how he’s being paid…

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Except that one involves spending less money on someone that can potentially improve and the other involves spending more money on someone who is more likely to decline.

Even bad early extensions are rarely prohibitive.  Kristian Campbell may never be a star (he will be one), but even if he becomes an average player or a good super utility player, that’s how he’s being paid…

I did not see 5 extensions coming, I must say.  It has really raised my opinion of how the organization is conducting business now. 

Of course my attitude is probably being affected by the fact that the team is on a 32-16 run. 😀

[sk7326]

Breslow's big charges coming here was to improve organizational pitching.  Clearly, he has emphasized that in his drafting, and the team has done a good job getting the pitchers they do have to be their best selves.  There was nothing to suggest Chapman would have this sort of season, par exemple.  

The moves under the hood - going away from in-person scouting in a lot of ways - that is more TBD as far as impact.  And it is not fair to expect that every offseason will be as successful as this past one.  He could also use some help with public/personal relations (maybe he should wear his 2013 world series champ uniform more often).  But he has done a good job - and hopefully he can outlast John Henry's impatience/fear of criticism.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, sk7326 said:

Breslow's big charges coming here was to improve organizational pitching.  Clearly, he has emphasized that in his drafting, and the team has done a good job getting the pitchers they do have to be their best selves.  There was nothing to suggest Chapman would have this sort of season, par exemple.  

The moves under the hood - going away from in-person scouting in a lot of ways - that is more TBD as far as impact.  And it is not fair to expect that every offseason will be as successful as this past one.  He could also use some help with public/personal relations (maybe he should wear his 2013 world series champ uniform more often).  But he has done a good job - and hopefully he can outlast John Henry's impatience/fear of criticism.

How much do you surmise Bailey has to do with the pitching results?  I realize it's all speculation but that's what we do here.

[sk7326]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I did not see 5 extensions coming, I must say.  It has really raised my opinion of how the organization is conducting business now. 

Of course my attitude is probably being affected by the fact that the team is on a 32-16 run. 😀

So far, so good.  The Rafaela and Anthony extensions look great - the Campbell one a bit premature (though at the price, the downside is more "annoying" than anything awful)

Let's put it this way - even if the incentives top out, if Anthony truly can have "best player in the league" sort of performance, that contract is a steal.  

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Young MLB players sign these deals precisely to get paid more early and to hedge against injury or sucking.

i understand this.  Scotty Pippen made it clear that he wanted the security of a long term contract when he signed his deal.  Then 3 years later he became very upset that he was underpaid, just as Trent Williams was.  Athletes tend to forget their benefit early in the contract when they become better than their current deal.  

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

i understand this.  Scotty Pippen made it clear that he wanted the security of a long term contract when he signed his deal.  Then 3 years later he became very upset that he was underpaid, just as Trent Williams was.  Athletes tend to forget their benefit early in the contract when they become better than their current deal.  

That does happen, for sure, but most seem to just accept it. Maybe they carry a grudge.

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Impossible to do. 

What will it take for it to grow 3 sizes?  And will that mean you get hospitalized with myocarditis, like the Grinch was in the unaired sequel?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I did not see 5 extensions coming, I must say.  It has really raised my opinion of how the organization is conducting business now. 

Of course my attitude is probably being affected by the fact that the team is on a 32-16 run. 😀

Not only the extensions, but the boldest trade made since Sale, and the highest AAV given to any player in Sox history by more than 25% (not counting deferred money calculations.)

They took a chance by replacing the $16M Jansen with the $12M Chapman and BAM!

They masterfully took advantage of the Yankee surplus at the catcher position by getting Narvaez.

It took 4 years to get Whitlock back to a relief-only role, but they did it.

They made Rafaela a FT player, despite worries about plate discipline.

Recent additions to the pen, like Weissert, Slaten, Wilson and now Matz have paid off.

Gio looked like yet another putrid SP'er signing, and now is on a mega roll.

They figured out how to help Bello turn into a solid #2.

Did I forget to mention the Crochet trade and extension? No, but he's worth mentioning twice.

 

[moonslav59]

I could be wrong, but these three things seem to be the biggest criticisms of Breslow's choices made (not in any order)...

1. Deadline deals being underwhelming. (This year: Matz and May. Last year: Garcia, Sims, Jansen, Priester & Paxton)

2, The Sale + cash for Grissom trade.

3. The Buehler signing.

4. The Priester trade

(The Giolito signing was top 4, but there is not much criticism, recently on this one.)

On #1: I like the idea of saving major deals for the winter, when gross overpays are not usually needed.

On #2: It's been beaten to death, but I still maintain there was logic to unloading a player injured for 4+ years for a promising solution to our 5+ year 2B issue.)

On #3: While his cost was double that of Kluber's and Richards, he seemed like a better gamble, at the time.

On #4: the trade looks bad, now, but our end is TBD. Maybe Holobetz emerges as a good pitcher. Maybe YRod improves.

So, 4 bad in hindsight and the Gio signing kinda breaking even. I guess I could count the Hendriks deal as #5, since it was $10M, so okay five bad -in-hindsight deals. I'll put Sandoval in the TBD category.

Now, the good to great:

1. Crochet trade.

2. Crochet extension,

3. Chapman signing.

4. Chapman extension.

5. Bregman signing.

6. Narvaez trade.

7. Slaten trade (Rule 5.)

8. Romy off waivers

9. Lowe off waivers

10. Tolle drafted & Promoted quickly

11. Fitts & Weissert for Verdugo

12. Tyler O'Neill for Robertson & Santos

13,  Criswell signing 

Pretty good & TBD:

2024 & 2025 Drafts look very good on paper (see Tolle at #10.)

IFA signings are too early to grade.

Fajardo & Sandlin Trades

In short, the 26 man roster is light years better than 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, and I'd argue better than 2021. The 40 man, including all those on the 60 Day IL is way better and deeper than any roster since 2018 or 2019. The farm, before the 7 promotions in 2025 was better than any farm in a long time, and arguably better than the one DD used to make so many great trades with.

One could argue we should be bowing to Breslow, not him taking a bow.

 

 

 

[cp176]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I could be wrong, but these three things seem to be the biggest criticisms of Breslow's choices made (not in any order)...

1. Deadline deals being underwhelming. (This year: Matz and May. Last year: Garcia, Sims, Jansen, Priester & Paxton)

2, The Sale + cash for Grissom trade.

3. The Buehler signing.

4. The Priester trade

(The Giolito signing was top 4, but there is not much criticism, recently on this one.)

On #1: I like the idea of saving major deals for the winter, when gross overpays are not usually needed.

On #2: It's been beaten to death, but I still maintain there was logic to unloading a player injured for 4+ years for a promising solution to our 5+ year 2B issue.)

On #3: While his cost was double that of Kluber's and Richards, he seemed like a better gamble, at the time.

On #4: the trade looks bad, now, but our end is TBD. Maybe Holobetz emerges as a good pitcher. Maybe YRod improves.

So, 4 bad in hindsight and the Gio signing kinda breaking even. I guess I could count the Hendriks deal as #5, since it was $10M, so okay five bad -in-hindsight deals. I'll put Sandoval in the TBD category.

Now, the good to great:

1. Crochet trade.

2. Crochet extension,

3. Chapman signing.

4. Chapman extension.

5. Bregman signing.

6. Narvaez trade.

7. Slaten trade (Rule 5.)

8. Romy off waivers

9. Lowe off waivers

10. Tolle drafted & Promoted quickly

11. Fitts & Weissert for Verdugo

12. Tyler O'Neill for Robertson & Santos

13,  Criswell signing 

Pretty good & TBD:

2024 & 2025 Drafts look very good on paper (see Tolle at #10.)

IFA signings are too early to grade.

Fajardo & Sandlin Trades

In short, the 26 man roster is light years better than 2020, 2022, 2023 and 2024, and I'd argue better than 2021. The 40 man, including all those on the 60 Day IL is way better and deeper than any roster since 2018 or 2019. The farm, before the 7 promotions in 2025 was better than any farm in a long time, and arguably better than the one DD used to make so many great trades with.

One could argue we should be bowing to Breslow, not him taking a bow.

 

 

 

The Chapman extension and listening to his comments with respect to staying in Boston spoke volumes for this organization.  My thinking has been fairly critical of much of what management including Cora has done in the past few years.  My opinion has now changed.  As I watch games, one of the givens for me I guess is to second guess and hindsight.  It works for me.  It keeps me involved.  We’ve seen this before.  This group likes each other and they like playing in Boston.  Interesting and unexpected things can happen with this type of positive thinking.  No one knows where this season will ultimately go but it sure has given life to my love of baseball.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow signed or traded for many players who helped this season, and drafted others who might someday.

That's a CBO's duty, and I can't ask him to take a bow for doing his job.

But 2025 will always be judged by June 15, when Breslow the surgeon removed a big lump that was impeding the full range of motion for all uniformed personnel.

Call it a salary dump if you want, because unless Kyle Harrison steps up, the Raffy return wasn't just bad, it was basically Jordan Hicks and Dustin May. But the bottom line is that Brez had the balls to get rid of a massive problem for the organization.

Boston was 37-36 when Devers was exiled 3,094 miles away to San Francisco. At the time he led the Sox in home runs, RBIs and OPS. 

Since then, the Red Sox have gone 40-26.

[mvp 78]

Devers since trade: 836 OPS

Red Sox DH's not named Devers this season: 727 OPS

Devers since trade: 1.2 fWAR

Jordan Hicks since trade: -0.3 fWAR

The team would be BETTER if Devers was still here. Everytime Masa is DH'ing or Hicks is pitching, they'd be better with Devers. They went 3-7 the 10 games after trading Devers. They got better because they promoted Anthony, not because they traded Devers. Anthony and Devers could have been on the same team. Breslow just didn't like the contract. 

I agree that the trade was a salary dump. SFG dumped Hicks onto BOS. 

Since promoting Roman Anthony, the Red Sox are 45-27.