Article: Red Sox Rumors: Duran-Padres Link Grows Stronger, Bregman Trade Rumor Shot Down

[Alex Mayes]

July is always one of the most interesting months in the baseball season. As of this writing, we are two days away from the All-Star break and there has been constant news swirling around the Red Sox since the month began. Notably, a report came out on July 7 stating that approximately a dozen teams were interested in acquiring Jarren Duran. While not surprising that teams are in on him with how he’s performed lately, we received some more detailed news on Friday, July 11 saying that the San Diego Padres have been “relentless” in their pursuit of Duran and have approached the Red Sox multiple times about trading for the left fielder, per MassLive’s Sean McAdam.

Alongside the Duran news, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered up some pointed remarks about the Red Sox trading their biggest free agent signing of the offseason, Alex Bregman. In short, don’t expect it to happen. Let’s take a dive into both rumors and see what they could mean for the team moving forward. 

Jarren Duran is the Padres’ Big Target

Last month, I wrote about how the Red Sox and Padres didn’t match up super well on a deal for Duran. As of this writing, I still don’t disagree, but with the report coming out that the Padres have approached the Sox repeatedly trying to acquire Duran, that has to mean that they are willing to overextend themselves to land him. If that’s the case, get the deal done. On July 10, ESPN’s Jeff Passan published his ‘Top Moves for Contenders’ piece where he identified Duran as the best match for the Padres, due to their lack of having a capable left fielder on the roster. In that, Passan assumes that the Padres’ top prospect, shortstop Leo De Vries, is off-limits in trade discussions but mentions their second ranked prospect, catcher Ethan Salas. Salas would be a huge get for the Sox, but one that doesn’t fill a pressing need for the team since the emergence of rookie Carlos Narvaez has more or less filled the backstop position for the near future. He does make a point to say that the Padres could involve a third team or make a number of their top-tier relievers available in a potential deal for Duran while noting that San Diego is “willing to go places most other organizations would never consider.” We’ve seen the Padres get creative to bring in players they covet before, so if they truly want Duran, Breslow and the rest of the front office may be fine playing the waiting game with them to force the Padres’ hand and land the players and prospects they feel can be contributors in Boston for seasons to come.

Alex Bregman Hopefully Isn’t Going Anywhere

Former MLB general manager Jim Bowden reported on July 9 that if the Red Sox and Alex Bregman didn’t come to an agreement on a contract extension before the deadline, the third baseman could be traded to the Mariners, Brewers, or Tigers. A mere two days later, Bowden’s co-worker at The Athletic refuted those claims as aforementioned. Rosenthal rightfully brings up the question of, in a deal of Bregman, what would the Red Sox be hoping to get in return? The team needs a No. 2 starter and bullpen help more than anything. While Bregman would net a decent return, he’s not getting you high-leverage arms alone given his age and contract. The Sox could pay down a bit of the roughly $13 million that he’s owed over the remainder of the season to help increase the return package, but you’d likely be looking at prospects coming back to Boston. Right now, that’s not what the Red Sox need to push their chips to the center and go all in. Rosenthal says that the rumors of Bregman being shipped out at the deadline are preposterous. 

Good.

Bregman is a leader in the clubhouse and seemingly the go-to advice guy for rookies Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer. He was playing out of his mind at the time of the injury and will be looking to return to form as the Red Sox seem to finally be figuring out how to play consistent, winning baseball in a post-Rafael Devers world. Having him around through the rest of this season, and the rest of his career, would bode well for the future of the franchise. Trading him for pennies on the dollar is shortsighted and makes the team far less likely to be competitive down the line.

As the weekend kicks off, expect more rumors and "leaks" to start showing up on your social media feeds. It may subside slightly during the beginning of the All-Star break, but it will kick into high gear immediately after the Midsummer Classic ends. Don’t be surprised to see Jarren Duran traded across the country, though I think we’d all be shocked if Alex Bregman played for another team this season.

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What do you think of the latest round of rumors surrounding the Red Sox? Let us know in the comments!

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[Hitch]

If the Padres really are this desperate for Duran, tell them it's De Vries or nobody. Then flip him in a package for pitching yourself, 

[Bellhorn04]

Trading Duran at the deadline is extremely risky for a team with playoff aspirations.  They can revisit in the offseason.

[Nick]

It would be great for Sox if Houck could provide some solid innings.....perhaps we're asking too much.

We do have Fitts still but if Dobbins is out any length of time we need a backup plan for Buehler.

I know that everyone would disagree but the only way to keep all of OF is maybe to move Anthony to 1B next year.

Narvaez, Anthony, Mayer, Story, Bregman, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida with a new catcher, Gonzalez, Refsnyder and another utility bat coming off the bench. Mayer and Anthony needs to play every day. That's a solid starting 9. Maybe we add another right handed bat, someone like Garcia. I like the flexibility of this team.

WE NEED ANOTHER STARTER AND A SET UP GUY IN THE BULLPEN.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With momentum at a peak frenzy -- and now Dobbins injured again -- Breslow may have no choice but to trade for a starting pitcher sooner rather than later.

Losing good young players in the middle of the season isn't the end of the world. Jose Iglesias and Brady Anderson were 23 and 24 when they were swapped mid-season for starting pitchers. Both of those deals helped win titles: either the division or the world...

Duran is really good at circling the bases, but remember -- he'll be 29 in less than two months.

[moonslav59]

I don't see the fit for the Sox, unless a 3rd team gets involved:

Duran to SDP

De Vries & maybe some of our mid level & blocked prospects to _____?

_____?? to BOS (solid Starting Pitcher, maybe a RP'er from SDP + a SP from team C)

 

[Larry Cook]

I do not see how San Diego matches up with us for a Duran trade!!  
I think the cubs or Phillies would be a much better trade partner for Duran!!! 

[jad]

A now typical RS move:  identify a popular, productive player and ship him out.  They don't understand that some fans (a minority I guess) view players as human beings rather than commodities. This is why I wouldn't care if they lost every game this year.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, jad said:

A now typical RS move:  identify a popular, productive player and ship him out.  They don't understand that some fans (a minority I guess) view players as human beings rather than commodities. This is why I wouldn't care if they lost every game this year.

Henry would trade Ted Williams for a "horde of prospects" if he was on today's roster.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Breslow trades an outfielder in the next few weeks, it will only be to make the Red Sox better this year, and hopefully in the future.

All the surplus of outfielders are under contract or control for reasonable dollars (not counting Yoshida, who we all know is a DH).

Boston's needs for pitching are obvious to fortify postseason hopes, and trading a good outfielder makes the most sense IF THE RETURN IS WORTHY of a deal.

If Duran or Abreu or The Password is part of a package that improves the Sox' chances, it's not personal but strictly business. It wouldn't be a clubhouse issue that needs tending to, like the big purge the braintrust felt had to happen last month...

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

It would be great for Sox if Houck could provide some solid innings.....perhaps we're asking too much.

We do have Fitts still but if Dobbins is out any length of time we need a backup plan for Buehler.

I know that everyone would disagree but the only way to keep all of OF is maybe to move Anthony to 1B next year.

Narvaez, Anthony, Mayer, Story, Bregman, Duran, Rafaela, Abreu and Yoshida with a new catcher, Gonzalez, Refsnyder and another utility bat coming off the bench. Mayer and Anthony needs to play every day. That's a solid starting 9. Maybe we add another right handed bat, someone like Garcia. I like the flexibility of this team.

WE NEED ANOTHER STARTER AND A SET UP GUY IN THE BULLPEN.

The outfield needs to be Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Abreu is the odd man out of the outfield rotation because he can't hit lefties and Duran's defense in CF is better than Abreu's defense in right field based on the 2024 metrics.  Duran is NOT good in LF so to evaluate him and compare him to Abreu playing that position unfairly stacks the deck against Duran who currently leads the team with 169 total bases which is 21 MORE than the next best player Rafaela.  Trading away the top Total Bases guys by far is a dumb move.  I know some fans only care about what a player has done for the team lately but that is a highly limited approach to comparing stats.  Here are Duran's, Abreu's and Yoshida's stats versus right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  One of these three need to be traded by the deadline and frankly since Yoshida is highly unlikely that means Abreu is the best candidate based on lower defensive value and his offense not fitting the niche that Duran fills nicely as the leadoff hitter.  The downside of picking Abreu is that EVERYONE recognizes Duran is the better player so his trade value is higher, but everyone also recognizes Bregman's trade value is the highest on the team and he's NOT the guy the team should want to trade to step backwards like they would if they traded Duran.

Duran - Career vs RH pitchers .280 - vs LH pitchers .235, (45 points, 1379/492 PA 26.3% vs LH )

2021 - vs RH .225 vs LH .185 (40 pts, 84/28 PA), 2022 vs RH .229 vs LH .184 (45 pts, 181/42 PA)

2023 - vs RH .315 vs LH ,276 (39 pts 313/49 PA), 2024 vs RH .298 vs LH .255(43 pts, 505/230 PA)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .281 vs LH .212 (69 pts, 287/143)

 

Abreu - Career vs RH pitchers .272 - vs LH pitchers .200 (72 points, 709/121 PA 14.6% vs LH)

2023 - vs RH .333 vs LH .200 (133 pts, 75/10 PA), 2024 vs RH .266 vs LH .180 (86 pts, 380/67)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .263 vs LH .231 (32 pts, 254/44)

 

Yoshida - Career vs RH pitchers .303 - vs LH .238, (65 points, 756/253 PA 25.1% vs LH

2023 - vs .293 vs LH .273 (20 pts, 436/144 PA), 2024 vs RH .310 vs LH .191 (119 pts, 313/108)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .571 vs LH .000 (571 pts, 7/1)

 

While Abreu in his 44 PAs in 2025 has done better than in the past he's never had more than 67 plate appearances versus LH pitchers in any season.  Duran has had 492 against LH pitchers and is hitting a respectable .235 versus Abreu's .200.  

The decision chart looks like this - Anthny in LF, Rafaela in RF and who is the best 3rd OF?  Duran for his leadoff capabilities, his total bases and his superior defense in CF.

Who should be the DH?  Comparing Yoshida's performance versus Abreu's you see that Yoshida hits LH pitchers far better than Abreu and given a chance to log more PAs he looks to be the more valuable all around hitter since you don't have to platoon him thus one less player on the roster to fill the same number of slots.  

This is why Abreu should be the unanimous choice for being traded at the deadline to bolster the roster.  Refsnyder makes for an excellent fourth outfielder who should get roughly 6 starts per month while the 3 primary OFers rest 2 games a month giving them roughly 150 starts for the season.  Refsnyder can also pinch hit late in games based on the righty/lefty matchups late in the game.

So the roster should be:

Narvaez/Wong(hopefully can upgrade him)

Toro/Campbell/Gozalez at 1B, Mayer at 2B, Story at SS and Bregman at 3B

Anthony, Duran and Rafaela in LF to RF with Yoshida as the DH and Refsnyder the 4th OFer.

That's 13 hitters for the roster with Gonzalez and Campbell reserves in the infield.

 

 

[sk7326]

2 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

The outfield needs to be Anthony in LF, Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF.  Abreu is the odd man out of the outfield rotation because he can't hit lefties and Duran's defense in CF is better than Abreu's defense in right field based on the 2024 metrics.  Duran is NOT good in LF so to evaluate him and compare him to Abreu playing that position unfairly stacks the deck against Duran who currently leads the team with 169 total bases which is 21 MORE than the next best player Rafaela.  Trading away the top Total Bases guys by far is a dumb move.  I know some fans only care about what a player has done for the team lately but that is a highly limited approach to comparing stats.  Here are Duran's, Abreu's and Yoshida's stats versus right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  One of these three need to be traded by the deadline and frankly since Yoshida is highly unlikely that means Abreu is the best candidate based on lower defensive value and his offense not fitting the niche that Duran fills nicely as the leadoff hitter.  The downside of picking Abreu is that EVERYONE recognizes Duran is the better player so his trade value is higher, but everyone also recognizes Bregman's trade value is the highest on the team and he's NOT the guy the team should want to trade to step backwards like they would if they traded Duran.

Duran - Career vs RH pitchers .280 - vs LH pitchers .235, (45 points, 1379/492 PA 26.3% vs LH )

2021 - vs RH .225 vs LH .185 (40 pts, 84/28 PA), 2022 vs RH .229 vs LH .184 (45 pts, 181/42 PA)

2023 - vs RH .315 vs LH ,276 (39 pts 313/49 PA), 2024 vs RH .298 vs LH .255(43 pts, 505/230 PA)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .281 vs LH .212 (69 pts, 287/143)

 

Abreu - Career vs RH pitchers .272 - vs LH pitchers .200 (72 points, 709/121 PA 14.6% vs LH)

2023 - vs RH .333 vs LH .200 (133 pts, 75/10 PA), 2024 vs RH .266 vs LH .180 (86 pts, 380/67)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .263 vs LH .231 (32 pts, 254/44)

 

Yoshida - Career vs RH pitchers .303 - vs LH .238, (65 points, 756/253 PA 25.1% vs LH

2023 - vs .293 vs LH .273 (20 pts, 436/144 PA), 2024 vs RH .310 vs LH .191 (119 pts, 313/108)

2025 - Through 96 games vs RH .571 vs LH .000 (571 pts, 7/1)

 

While Abreu in his 44 PAs in 2025 has done better than in the past he's never had more than 67 plate appearances versus LH pitchers in any season.  Duran has had 492 against LH pitchers and is hitting a respectable .235 versus Abreu's .200.  

The decision chart looks like this - Anthny in LF, Rafaela in RF and who is the best 3rd OF?  Duran for his leadoff capabilities, his total bases and his superior defense in CF.

Who should be the DH?  Comparing Yoshida's performance versus Abreu's you see that Yoshida hits LH pitchers far better than Abreu and given a chance to log more PAs he looks to be the more valuable all around hitter since you don't have to platoon him thus one less player on the roster to fill the same number of slots.  

This is why Abreu should be the unanimous choice for being traded at the deadline to bolster the roster.  Refsnyder makes for an excellent fourth outfielder who should get roughly 6 starts per month while the 3 primary OFers rest 2 games a month giving them roughly 150 starts for the season.  Refsnyder can also pinch hit late in games based on the righty/lefty matchups late in the game.

So the roster should be:

Narvaez/Wong(hopefully can upgrade him)

Toro/Campbell/Gozalez at 1B, Mayer at 2B, Story at SS and Bregman at 3B

Anthony, Duran and Rafaela in LF to RF with Yoshida as the DH and Refsnyder the 4th OFer.

That's 13 hitters for the roster with Gonzalez and Campbell reserves in the infield.

 

 

Rafaela has been the 3rd best CF in the majors.  I'm not moving the best or second best CF in the league makes a ton of sense. 

Now Abreu has struggled against lefties - but at a certain point, it kind of might not matter if he has been as productive as he has otherwise.  Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu with Refsnyder as a quite good 4th outfielder is actually pretty solid?  And longer term maybe a guy like the Password is going to sort of solve some of this too. (if he is not dealt for pitching, which is certainly plausible)

[dgalehouse]

Having too many good players is not a problem. Finding playing time for them is something that will work itself out. There should be no urgency to make a trade. If Breslow gets an offer he can't refuse, then go for it. But be careful and don't be in a hurry. He may be able to get a good pitcher for minor league prospects. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

31 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Rafaela has been the 3rd best CF in the majors.  I'm not moving the best or second best CF in the league makes a ton of sense. 

Now Abreu has struggled against lefties - but at a certain point, it kind of might not matter if he has been as productive as he has otherwise.  Anthony-Rafaela-Abreu with Refsnyder as a quite good 4th outfielder is actually pretty solid?  And longer term maybe a guy like the Password is going to sort of solve some of this too. (if he is not dealt for pitching, which is certainly plausible)

First, baseball is a team sport so what's good for a player might not be good for the team.  Devers was a perfect example.  He killed the defense for 8 seasons because he wouldn't move to DH.

Mookie Betts was a great defender and may have put up better numbers than JBJ on defense had he been allowed to play CF, but they needed him in the more difficult RF position.  That's why Rafaela needs to be modern day version of Mookie Betts winning GGs or even Platinum Gloves in RF with his strong arm.  Duran is the second-best defender who ranked ahead of Rafaela in 2024 while playing CF.  The team is far, far better off with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF and Anthony in LF.  The numbers don't lie.  Your out of context reference to Rafaela being 3rd ignores the 2024 season before Cora screwed things up by moving Duran to LF because he's a terrible manager who knows so little about baseball it's frightening.  

I posted Abreu's ridiculously bad numbers against LF pitchers above.  To suggest what's best for the team as being Abreu playing the outfield or playing full time is NOT supported by the numbers.  He finished 3rd in 2024 when he won his Gold Glove to Duran and Rafaela with respect to defense and as such, he normally would be put in LF except the young superstar needs to go there so Abreu is the odd man out.  As far as DH, look at the numbers I posted.  Yoshida is a better DH than Abreu due to Abreu's incompetence at hitting LH pitchers since he arrived in the MLB.  Refsnyder should not have to be the handcuff for the inept Abreu.  He should be the fourth outfielder full time.  Since Yoshida probably doesn't have Abreu's market value since he's been out so much, then Abreu automatically becomes the expendable player if we are going to enhance the roster at the trade deadline. 

Whether it's Helsley or a starting pitcher, the first one out the door needs to be Abreu coupled with a blocked prospect playing behind Anthony, Mayer or Campbell.  If you like Garcia as a prospect even though his odds are bad that he'll ever make the MLB team before being traded, then put Tibbs in the deal instead.  He's just as blocked as Garcia.  But in the end, we need to do what's best for the team not what's best for your favorite players.

[sk7326]

46 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

First, baseball is a team sport so what's good for a player might not be good for the team.  Devers was a perfect example.  He killed the defense for 8 seasons because he wouldn't move to DH.

Mookie Betts was a great defender and may have put up better numbers than JBJ on defense had he been allowed to play CF, but they needed him in the more difficult RF position.  That's why Rafaela needs to be modern day version of Mookie Betts winning GGs or even Platinum Gloves in RF with his strong arm.  Duran is the second-best defender who ranked ahead of Rafaela in 2024 while playing CF.  The team is far, far better off with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF and Anthony in LF.  The numbers don't lie.  Your out of context reference to Rafaela being 3rd ignores the 2024 season before Cora screwed things up by moving Duran to LF because he's a terrible manager who knows so little about baseball it's frightening.  

I posted Abreu's ridiculously bad numbers against LF pitchers above.  To suggest what's best for the team as being Abreu playing the outfield or playing full time is NOT supported by the numbers.  He finished 3rd in 2024 when he won his Gold Glove to Duran and Rafaela with respect to defense and as such, he normally would be put in LF except the young superstar needs to go there so Abreu is the odd man out.  As far as DH, look at the numbers I posted.  Yoshida is a better DH than Abreu due to Abreu's incompetence at hitting LH pitchers since he arrived in the MLB.  Refsnyder should not have to be the handcuff for the inept Abreu.  He should be the fourth outfielder full time.  Since Yoshida probably doesn't have Abreu's market value since he's been out so much, then Abreu automatically becomes the expendable player if we are going to enhance the roster at the trade deadline. 

Whether it's Helsley or a starting pitcher, the first one out the door needs to be Abreu coupled with a blocked prospect playing behind Anthony, Mayer or Campbell.  If you like Garcia as a prospect even though his odds are bad that he'll ever make the MLB team before being traded, then put Tibbs in the deal instead.  He's just as blocked as Garcia.  But in the end, we need to do what's best for the team not what's best for your favorite players.

Abreu's splits are not actually that different than Yoshida.  Yoshida has that "proven hitter" smell because the team signed him to hit.  Duran had a terrific season in 2024 - though it was his best defensively by a mile.  He has been less effective defensively this season at a nominally easier position - but the question is whether 2024 is the rule or the exception.  

As long as this is the lineup, Rafaela will get some spins at 2B.  But  Duran makes as much sense as anybody to be traded due to positive value.  I'd probably deal Abreu first - but it's not obvious to me.  

[notin]

6 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I do not see how San Diego matches up with us for a Duran trade!!  
I think the cubs or Phillies would be a much better trade partner for Duran!!! 

The Cubs?  They don’t have room in their outfield for the MLB RBI leader…

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, sk7326 said:

Abreu's splits are not actually that different than Yoshida.  Yoshida has that "proven hitter" smell because the team signed him to hit.  Duran had a terrific season in 2024 - though it was his best defensively by a mile.  He has been less effective defensively this season at a nominally easier position - but the question is whether 2024 is the rule or the exception.  

As long as this is the lineup, Rafaela will get some spins at 2B.  But  Duran makes as much sense as anybody to be traded due to positive value.  I'd probably deal Abreu first - but it's not obvious to me.  

First - I published Yoshida's and Abreu's numbers versus righties and lefties in a previous response.  If your conclusion from those numbers is that they aren't that different, we probably have no reason to discuss baseball together.  It's beyond obvious that they ARE NOT similar.  FYI... he won batting titles in Japan facing both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  Abreu has only had 44 PA in 2025 because he is so bad vs LH pitchers Cora has avoided them.  To conclude anything from 44 PAs is a stretch.  Just the volume alone tells you how bad he is so the silly argument that he's as good as Duran vs LH pitchers is ridiculous.  

Second - Duran did have ANOTHER great defensive season in 2024.  FYI... He played CF for 261 games in the minors, and he made 6 errors in 576 Total Chances for a fielding % of .990.  In the MLB he's played CF in 265 games and made 2 errors for a fielding percentage of .996.  Since metric estimates are completely inaccurate just look at the obvious REAL DATA and try to conclude this guy isn't a great CF defender.  That would defy logic.  The answer to your question is 2024 is the rule based on 10 seasons of playing CF.

Third - The evidence was overwhelming why Duran shouldn't be traded before Abreu.  The last quality leadoff man in BOS was Mookie.  If you lose Duran there is no telling how long, it will take before they find a new one or have to trade for a new one.

The data all supports Duran staying and playing CF with Rafaela in RF.  Mayer needs to be the 2B while Story is being paid $23.3 Million a year to play SS and Bregman needs to play 3B.  As soon as the organization feels Campbell is ready to return as the 1B, he'll join Mayer in the infield and Toro and Gonzalez will become the infield reserves with Refsnyder the outfield reserve and Wong the back-up catcher.

 

 

[sk7326]

3 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

First - I published Yoshida's and Abreu's numbers versus righties and lefties in a previous response.  If your conclusion from those numbers is that they aren't that different, we probably have no reason to discuss baseball together.  It's beyond obvious that they ARE NOT similar.  FYI... he won batting titles in Japan facing both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  Abreu has only had 44 PA in 2025 because he is so bad vs LH pitchers Cora has avoided them.  To conclude anything from 44 PAs is a stretch.  Just the volume alone tells you how bad he is so the silly argument that he's as good as Duran vs LH pitchers is ridiculous.  

Second - Duran did have ANOTHER great defensive season in 2024.  FYI... He played CF for 261 games in the minors, and he made 6 errors in 576 Total Chances for a fielding % of .990.  In the MLB he's played CF in 265 games and made 2 errors for a fielding percentage of .996.  Since metric estimates are completely inaccurate just look at the obvious REAL DATA and try to conclude this guy isn't a great CF defender.  That would defy logic.  The answer to your question is 2024 is the rule based on 10 seasons of playing CF.

Third - The evidence was overwhelming why Duran shouldn't be traded before Abreu.  The last quality leadoff man in BOS was Mookie.  If you lose Duran there is no telling how long, it will take before they find a new one or have to trade for a new one.

The data all supports Duran staying and playing CF with Rafaela in RF.  Mayer needs to be the 2B while Story is being paid $23.3 Million a year to play SS and Bregman needs to play 3B.  As soon as the organization feels Campbell is ready to return as the 1B, he'll join Mayer in the infield and Toro and Gonzalez will become the infield reserves with Refsnyder the outfield reserve and Wong the back-up catcher.

 

 

Sigh.  Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion.  And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls.  

Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad.  And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.  

[Duran Is The Man]

11 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Sigh.  Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion.  And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls.  

Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad.  And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.  

then i guess the Sox committed three opinions yesterday that nearly cost them the game. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 hour ago, sk7326 said:

Sigh.  Fielding percentages are based on errors - which is, at its core, an opinion.  And of course fielding percentage says nothing about actually getting to balls.  

Yoshida is certainly better against lefties than Abreu - but they are both quite bad.  And Abreu is arguably a more valuable hitter against righties ... higher higher slugging with only a slighly lower OBP.  

Actually, fielding percentage is about the balls gotten to and the success rate of getting an out which is the single most fundamental aspect of defense in baseball.  So OBP is not the essence of success? 

We won't ever agree on anything since you've been brainwashed to think estimates known as metrics have accuracy to them and reflect real events.  Neither of which is true.  An entire generation of fans have been conned as to the value of metrics.  They are hypothetical numbers not facts.  Fielding % accounts for the success rate of a fielder.  Metrics supposed what might have happened given normal conditions calculated from averages that don't reflect specific occurrences.  Basically, made up data to try to estimate the most likely scenario for a specific player, not what actually happened.  It's a what-if world with no assured accuracy.  If a score keeper chooses wrong with respect to an error, it's part of the game.  If a player is clustered in a non-representative group of players, the data is completely skewed and nobody knows it because nobody defines the parameters of the equations with historical accuracy.   The public must simply accept the information as if there is a level of accuracy that does not exist.

Averaging is a form of guessing. 

A stat like batting average is a record of an event not a guess. 

Trying to extend reality so you can guess how far a player would have run to make a play based on clustering a group of other players performances on similar plays is pure fiction.  It's called guessing.  Believing some company can project guesses for the performance of all players is a fantasy world.  There is no certainty to guesses.  They aren't after the fact data; they are projections based on assumptions that may or may not apply in general and certainly don't apply to very specific plays.  

Metrics are a fun WHAT-IF world and are great for nerds that like playing what-if games.  I prefer to use facts to assess players.  It's old school but it's the most accurate way to do things.  Nobody should care if someone has the opinion that one player is more athletic than another they should care if the defender made the play successfully to help his team.  Non successful plays whether they include forty feet runs or no run at all still has the same net result, the team is hurt by the misplay.

I take no offense by you believing in the simulated world of metrics, just don't expect others to follow who actually know the game and math because the data is not even close to being more accurate than the facts recorded after a game.  The hits, runs, rbis, doubles, triples, home runs.  Those are facts.  WAR is a make-believe number that is contrived and derivative in an attempt to compare performance across players.  The assumptions can be argued; the normalization is inaccurate and the concept of Wins Above Replacement is absurd because it's a team game not an individual game.  Having a high WAR doesn't necessarily mean you've done your best to help your team win, but that's what you are being sold.  Players can only succeed at the situation they are in, there is no make-believe world that theoretically allows them to perform to an average performance.  It's a unique event that only happens once in life.  That can't be predicted, nor can it be lumped in with other events to come up with indices to evaluate players.  1000 exact same instances across 1000 players would never result in the suggested performance of metrics.  Baseball deals in reality and metrics deal in a world of fabrication designed to go beyond reality to determine attributes of a player that can't be measured by the real statistics of baseball.  

My recommendation is to stay grounded in the real game and look at stats to determine how good a player is not how good he could possibly be if you tried to select a similar group of players and compared their skills.  Love the sport not the make-believe data that now drives billions of dollars of revenue to all the statistically inaccurate corporations that suggest their data is accurate.

[Bellhorn04]

8 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Actually, fielding percentage is about the balls gotten to and the success rate of getting an out which is the single most fundamental aspect of defense in baseball.

Shortstop A gets to 100 balls and turns 96 of them into outs.  Fielding pct. .960.

In the same number of innings, Shortstop B gets to 50 balls and turns 49 of them into outs.  Fielding pct. .980.

Based on this information and nothing else, would you conclude that B is the better shortstop?

[Sawxfan]

13 hours ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

First - I published Yoshida's and Abreu's numbers versus righties and lefties in a previous response.  If your conclusion from those numbers is that they aren't that different, we probably have no reason to discuss baseball together.  It's beyond obvious that they ARE NOT similar.  FYI... he won batting titles in Japan facing both right-handed and left-handed pitchers.  Abreu has only had 44 PA in 2025 because he is so bad vs LH pitchers Cora has avoided them.  To conclude anything from 44 PAs is a stretch.  Just the volume alone tells you how bad he is so the silly argument that he's as good as Duran vs LH pitchers is ridiculous.  

Second - Duran did have ANOTHER great defensive season in 2024.  FYI... He played CF for 261 games in the minors, and he made 6 errors in 576 Total Chances for a fielding % of .990.  In the MLB he's played CF in 265 games and made 2 errors for a fielding percentage of .996.  Since metric estimates are completely inaccurate just look at the obvious REAL DATA and try to conclude this guy isn't a great CF defender.  That would defy logic.  The answer to your question is 2024 is the rule based on 10 seasons of playing CF.

Third - The evidence was overwhelming why Duran shouldn't be traded before Abreu.  The last quality leadoff man in BOS was Mookie.  If you lose Duran there is no telling how long, it will take before they find a new one or have to trade for a new one.

The data all supports Duran staying and playing CF with Rafaela in RF.  Mayer needs to be the 2B while Story is being paid $23.3 Million a year to play SS and Bregman needs to play 3B.  As soon as the organization feels Campbell is ready to return as the 1B, he'll join Mayer in the infield and Toro and Gonzalez will become the infield reserves with Refsnyder the outfield reserve and Wong the back-up catcher.

 

 

Using errors and fielding % as a metric to judge defensive value in 2025 is laughable! Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, etc. are far better metrics to use when assessing the defensive value of a player. Rafaela is by far the best defensive CF on the Red Sox, and arguably the best defensive CF in MLB! 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Sawxfan said:

Using errors and fielding % as a metric to judge defensive value in 2025 is laughable! Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, etc. are far better metrics to use when assessing the defensive value of a player. Rafaela is by far the best defensive CF on the Red Sox, and arguably the best defensive CF in MLB! 

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[dgalehouse]

Defensive metrics are questionable at best. I have yet to see a good explanation of how they are derived. The one I usually hear is that there are trained experts who actually watch every pitch of every game to develop the data used in these metrics. That seems preposterous. Through experience, I have become very skeptical whenever I hear things like " experts agree ", " studies have shown" or " data suggests ".  I can watch the games and see for myself that Rafaela is a terrific centerfielder. 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

Defensive metrics are questionable at best. I have yet to see a good explanation of how they are derived. The one I usually hear is that there are trained experts who actually watch every pitch of every game to develop the data used in these metrics. That seems preposterous. Through experience, I have become very skeptical whenever I hear things like " experts agree ", " studies have shown" or " data suggests ".  I can watch the games and see for myself that Rafaela is a terrific centerfielder. 

It’s actually all done with software now.  It takes in launch angle, escape velocity, etc. and acknowledges that all, say, batted groundballs hit to shortstop are not equal and some are tougher plays…

[Nick]

So Anthony to 1B is a big NO!

Good discussion here. 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Shortstop A gets to 100 balls and turns 96 of them into outs.  Fielding pct. .960.

In the same number of innings, Shortstop B gets to 50 balls and turns 49 of them into outs.  Fielding pct. .980.

Based on this information and nothing else, would you conclude that B is the better shortstop?

Let me point out that you didn't ask the right question for the data you provided.  The question should have been which player performed better given his unique set of plays he acted upon.  The answer is simple when phased properly, Player B performed better and showed his competency within his range is superior to Player A.  Player A might have more range or maybe he simply got a different set of ground balls hit to him.  That is unclear.  

Simple rule, the player with better fielding skills is always the preferred player because you can't control where the balls are going to be hit to.  If in 2024 a more athletic player gets hit balls that are 4 feet farther away but his fielding percentage is significantly worse and then the next year he gets balls hit to him that are 4 feet closer to him so his fielding percentage is better but not as good as the other player who had the same range factor the year before, the answer is obvious.   Getting to more balls only can be a bonus if the additional balls gotten too aren't misplayed at a rate that includes more extra bases than balls hit to him.

The question of "who is the better player?" is irrelevant and that's what metric people don't get.  All that matters is who performed better on the unique set of balls hit to the player.  Everything else is an extrapolation that is pure conjecture.  Just because a player made a play in the past that is a specific distance away or a specific difficulty, that doesn't mean they will ever execute it again in the future.  You can only measure reality.

 

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

Let me point out that you didn't ask the right question for the data you provided.  The question should have been which player performed better given his unique set of plays he acted upon.  The answer is simple when phased properly, Player B performed better and showed his competency within his range is superior to Player A.  Player A might have more range or maybe he simply got a different set of ground balls hit to him.  That is unclear. 

Well, you're acknowledging the existence of qualitative differences in range which are not measured by fielding %. 

The answer to the question might be unclear based on those numbers only, but it's easy enough to measure which fielder has more range based on data and video.

If a Player A gets to twice as many balls as Player B and his fielding % is only slightly worse, that means he is generating far more outs and is clearly the better defender.  That is as obvious as it can possibly be.

 

[TedYazPapiMookie]

2 hours ago, Sawxfan said:

Using errors and fielding % as a metric to judge defensive value in 2025 is laughable! Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, etc. are far better metrics to use when assessing the defensive value of a player. Rafaela is by far the best defensive CF on the Red Sox, and arguably the best defensive CF in MLB! 

First, try to understand the nomenclature.  Errors are not a metric, they are a stat.  Metrics are guesses or estimates.  Fielding % is also a stat not a metric.  The laughable part is your lack of understanding about what you are talking about.  OAA is WAG also known as a wild ass guess.  It's nothing more than one perspective on a guess at a fabricated concept called Outs Above Average.  That's a joke metric.  It's completely fabricated.  Ultimate Zone Ratings are fabricated.  They are new parameters made up to try to make apples to oranges comparisons that are wild ass guesses.

Most people actually use a measurement to define the best at something.  Go look up who had a better DRS in CF in 2024 - Duran or Rafaela.  I'll give you a hint, it's the guy with 2 errors in 550 total chances in CF since he joined the Red Sox.  It's Duran.  

You do realize that just saying something is so doesn't actually make it so?  Right?  

You are welcome to your opinion, but you must know that nobody cares what that is.  They care about facts, and the fact is Duran outperformed all Red Sox outfielders last year, with Rafaela second and Abreu the gold glove winner finishing 3rd.

It takes a lot of nerve to suggest something is laughable when you have no knowledge about the topic.

[sk7326]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, you're acknowledging the existence of qualitative differences in range which are not measured by fielding %. 

The answer to the question might be unclear based on those numbers only, but it's easy enough to measure which fielder has more range based on data and video.

If a Player A gets to twice as many balls as Player B and his fielding % is only slightly worse, that means he is generating far more outs and is clearly the better defender.  That is as obvious as it can possibly be.

 

A lot of his analysis has conflated statistical inference and data analysis as "guess work" which honestly veers too far into Carl Everett Dinosaur Theory for me.