Old is new again - I remodeled the offseason blueprint as the trade deadline blueprint

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

How would the '25 Sox fare if they added the equivalent of these '18 mid-season acquisitions: 

1B Steve Pearce, World Series MVP

2B Ian Kinsler, Gold Glove

P Nathan Eovaldi, best postseason pitcher

Here's who Boston traded away in those deals:

Santiago Espinal, still active, All-Star second baseman '22, 4.1 career WAR 

Ty Buttrey, pitcher, out of baseball in three years, 1.3 career WAR

Williams Jerez, pitcher, out of baseball in two years, -0.4 WAR

Jalen Beeks, pitcher, still active but in seven years has 1.8 WAR

Espinal - not a top 20 prospect

Buttrey 19th

Jerez - not a top 20 prospect

Beeks - 6th

That's a good haul for only trading 2 top 20 prospects IMO. I'm not sure you can do that nowadays. 

Equivalent would be like Connelly Early for Eovaldi. Uberstine and Jose Bello for Kinsler. Castro for Pearce. The system was weaker then, so the rankings aren't one for one. 

[mvp 78]

For a 2018 team, those trades make sense. For a middling 2025? Pass!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

For a 2018 team, those trades make sense. For a middling 2025? Pass!

But this club desperately needs an authentic 1B, a real 2B and another good starting pitcher.

If we're only dipping into the kiddie prospect pool (on the side next to the Olympic size pool), then at least a few deals might get them through the summer...

... just in case, you know, Sandoval, Houck, Slaten, Harrison and Hicks return or are promoted and all are lights out, Bregman heals and cracks 20 homers, the Big Three are We Three Kings instead of Curly, Larry, Moe, and The Password arrives as the instant new Manny.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

But this club desperately needs an authentic 1B, a real 2B and another good starting pitcher.

If we're only dipping into the kiddie prospect pool (on the side next to the Olympic size pool), then at least a few deals might get them through the summer...

... just in case, you know, Sandoval, Houck, Slaten, Harrison and Hicks return or are promoted and all are lights out, Bregman heals and cracks 20 homers, the Big Three are We Three Kings instead of Curly, Larry, Moe, and The Password arrives as the instant new Manny.

If they make these deals on July 31st, it'll be too late to make up lost ground and instead of being 81-81, they'll wind up 85-77. If they made the deals now, there's a better chance they can get to 87 wins. 

I just don't think Breslow is serious about their chances this season.

[jad]

Breslow is now in the position where he can throw up his hands and say (as usual) 'well, we put a team together, but the guys just didn't perform up to expectations. '   You know, like Meyer hitting 80 HR, Roman Anthony hitting .300; Campbell leading the league in stolen bases; Duran winning the triple crown; Houck winning the Cy Young.   Obviously the players' fault.

[drewski6]

23 hours ago, notin said:

I’m not worried about Mayer.  He’s been slow adjusting but doing well.  His biggest obstacle will be Cora benching him against LHP during a lost season…

In this case, its your opinion of McClain that is off.  

[Nick]

Drag Factor = ((100 - wRC+) * Plate Appearances) / Team Total Plate appearances

This was brought up on Over the Monster. It's a good read. Sox drag factor is 14.20 compared to 5.50 for the Yankees (smaller the # the better).

Trevor Story is highest at 2.83, followed by D Hamilton at 2.54 and Wong at 2.05. The conclusion is D Hamilton and Wong has no business being on our 26 man roster. It seems very obvious. Say what you will about Story, ultimately he's a utility player. Sox trying to squeeze out every bit of production solely because he's highly compensated ultimately makes no sense.

Every at bat we give these three hurts the team. It makes perfect sense to me. But Cora feels obligated to play Hamilton and Wong. His comment was they need more at bats. Really?

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Nick said:

Drag Factor = ((100 - wRC+) * Plate Appearances) / Team Total Plate appearances

This was brought up on Over the Monster. It's a good read. Sox drag factor is 14.20 compared to 5.50 for the Yankees (smaller the # the better).

Trevor Story is highest at 2.83, followed by D Hamilton at 2.54 and Wong at 2.05. The conclusion is D Hamilton and Wong has no business being on our 26 man roster. It seems very obvious. Say what you will about Story, ultimately he's a utility player. Sox trying to squeeze out every bit of production solely because he's highly compensated ultimately makes no sense.

Every at bat we give these three hurts the team. It makes perfect sense to me. But Cora feels obligated to play Hamilton and Wong. His comment was they need more at bats. Really?

Nick, I have never been a believer in thinking a player is fully defined but what he done, recently. It can and often is an indicator or what we can expect, but I'm not ready to give up on Story, just yet. Also, we have nobody better to play SS, unless we play Mayer there, but then Story is a better option at 2B or 3B, anyway, than anything else we have.

Now, I just spoke out against the recency factor, and will sound contradictory when I say that Story has looked way better on D over the last month or two, than he did in April, and he's has been getting some key hits. He's at .794 over his last 73 PAs, and I'd be thrilled, if he could keep this up. That is also way better than most Sox players over the last 3 weeks.

Now is not the time to demote Story.

The point on DHam is correct, but again, he's hitting better than Campbell and is our current best defensive 2Bman, so who do you play, instead? We need Romy at 1B w Toro. You want eaton starting at 2B?

[Randy Red Sox]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nick, I have never been a believer in thinking a player is fully defined but what he done, recently. It can and often is an indicator or what we can expect, but I'm not ready to give up on Story, just yet. Also, we have nobody better to play SS, unless we play Mayer there, but then Story is a better option at 2B or 3B, anyway, than anything else we have.

Now, I just spoke out against the recency factor, and will sound contradictory when I say that Story has looked way better on D over the last month or two, than he did in April, and he's has been getting some key hits. He's at .794 over his last 73 PAs, and I'd be thrilled, if he could keep this up. That is also way better than most Sox players over the last 3 weeks.

Now is not the time to demote Story.

The point on DHam is correct, but again, he's hitting better than Campbell and is our current best defensive 2Bman, so who do you play, instead? We need Romy at 1B w Toro. You want eaton starting at 2B?

all of these options are nothing but band-aids and are a main reason the Sox are where they are right now.  Remember when Grissom was to become our everyday 2B? Now we can't GIVE him away.

[Nick]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Nick, I have never been a believer in thinking a player is fully defined but what he done, recently. It can and often is an indicator or what we can expect, but I'm not ready to give up on Story, just yet. Also, we have nobody better to play SS, unless we play Mayer there, but then Story is a better option at 2B or 3B, anyway, than anything else we have.

Now, I just spoke out against the recency factor, and will sound contradictory when I say that Story has looked way better on D over the last month or two, than he did in April, and he's has been getting some key hits. He's at .794 over his last 73 PAs, and I'd be thrilled, if he could keep this up. That is also way better than most Sox players over the last 3 weeks.

Now is not the time to demote Story.

The point on DHam is correct, but again, he's hitting better than Campbell and is our current best defensive 2Bman, so who do you play, instead? We need Romy at 1B w Toro. You want eaton starting at 2B?

I don't think it's about what choices do we have? Hamilton's value is speed. I bet there's a playoff team out there that can use him to just pinch run. 

We are destined to finish dead last if we don't do something drastic. What do we have to lose? I don't care if we end up with 70 wins when the alternative to play the same players and get to 81-81. 

I am willing to let it play out until the All-Star break. We need to make a decision at that point. We just don't have the pitching staff to carry our offense right now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

I am willing to let it play out until the All-Star break. We need to make a decision at that point. We just don't have the pitching staff to carry our offense right now.

Fair timetable. Just looked at the sked: 15 more games before the Break, mid-July.

I'm not even going to list opponents in that span, but let's just say some are as bad as Boston right now, others are better. What record would you say would be good enough to still think 2025's roster is worth upgrading? 

Put it this way: a W-L of 9-6 only gets you back to .500. For me, if they can go 9-6 or 10-5 before Bregman comes back, then Brez should take the best pitcher he gets offered for Duran. As long as it's not a rental case, that is... if we're actually trading Duran, the return has to help fortify at least next season, as well as this summer.

But if the Sox tank and go like 5-10? Back up the U-Haul.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

all of these options are nothing but band-aids and are a main reason the Sox are where they are right now.  Remember when Grissom was to become our everyday 2B? Now we can't GIVE him away.

All true, but we have to keep trying to fix the major issues while playing the best options we have, until it's fixed. I also still think Story might improve enough to be a slight plus at SS or 2B for the next 1.5 to 2.5 seasons. I think that more than I do for DHam, Grissom & Romy combined. That might not be saying much, and I've made the point that we can't be winners with just Bregman and 8 slightly plus everyday players: we need more major plus players, but until we get them, I'll settle for slightly plus over what we are currently seeing at several positions.

I'm not for "settling" as a long term plan.

[moonslav59]

23 hours ago, Nick said:

I don't think it's about what choices do we have? Hamilton's value is speed. I bet there's a playoff team out there that can use him to just pinch run. 

We are destined to finish dead last if we don't do something drastic. What do we have to lose? I don't care if we end up with 70 wins when the alternative to play the same players and get to 81-81. 

I am willing to let it play out until the All-Star break. We need to make a decision at that point. We just don't have the pitching staff to carry our offense right now.

I'm more than fine trading DHam, yesterday or last week. I'm sure some team does want him. He'd be snapped up in a minute, if DFA'd.

The return is going to be a single A player or AAAA type nobody, IMO. Sure, let's trade for a nobody who might have a sliver of faraway hope. I'm not against that idea, but I'm also not going to kid myself that trading him is going to make a difference- now or 5 years from now.

Trading Chapman, Gio, Buehler, Wilson, Refsnyder and even Bregman, if it looks like we can't extend him, WILL bring back value. DHam, Grissom, Eaton, Wong, and a few others- likely not.

Story and Yoshida might bring something back, if we pay 60-80% of their contracts or add prospects to the deal.

[Hitch]

The biggest issue Breslow has with this trade deadline is that after the Devers trade he explicitly stated we were going to be buyers (and done nothing since), and then reiterated that again recently, and is now looking like he will have t o be a seller. which makes him look like an idiot twice over.

And we've already seen - the guy has an ego/is thin skinned. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

The biggest issue Breslow has with this trade deadline is that after the Devers trade he explicitly stated we were going to be buyers (and done nothing since), and then reiterated that again recently, and is now looking like he will have t o be a seller. which makes him look like an idiot twice over.

And we've already seen - the guy has an ego/is thin skinned. 

Yes, things are shaping up nicely for another confusing and frustrating deadline for the Sox.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

The biggest issue Breslow has with this trade deadline is that after the Devers trade he explicitly stated we were going to be buyers (and done nothing since), and then reiterated that again recently, and is now looking like he will have t o be a seller. which makes him look like an idiot twice over.

And we've already seen - the guy has an ego/is thin skinned. 

Makes it look like he's just trying to keep fannies in the seats for as long as possible.

[moonslav59]

As of now, the idea of buying now or at the deadline seems absurd.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As of now, the idea of buying now or at the deadline seems absurd.

Sox have to go 8-5 to get back to .500 by the All-Star Break. 

Anything less and I'll light the fire, while you place the flowers in the vase.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sox have to go 8-5 to get back to .500 by the All-Star Break. 

Anything less and I'll light the fire, while you place the flowers in the vase.

I'm not sure I want us to be buyers, even at .500. I know 500 might mean 2-3 GB the WC slot, but I'd rather just pack it in on '25, in hopes that selling would improve our chances at being better in 2026.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure I want us to be buyers, even at .500. I know 500 might mean 2-3 GB the WC slot, but I'd rather just pack it in on '25, in hopes that selling would improve our chances at being better in 2026.

The only thing I'm buying is a controllable pitcher who could contribute next year at least. That means no expiring contracts -- so probably an MLB-ready prospect for a decent but expendable outfielder like Duran or Abreu.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only thing I'm buying is a controllable pitcher who could contribute next year at least. That means no expiring contracts -- so probably an MLB-ready prospect for a decent but expendable outfielder like Duran or Abreu.

Controllable pitchers are rarely traded at the deadline, and it is my opinion that they cost more at the deadline than the winter, so in general, I doubt we can find a trade like that in July.

Instead, the more likely plan to better position us for a trade like that this winter would be to trade Duran and or Abreu for prospects and then get the best prospects we can for Chapman, Wilson, Buehler, Gio and Refsnyder. If the Bregman extension looks like a no go, then trading him makes sense, too. I think we can get some very nice pieces and a few decent auxiliary pieces with the names I listed. When you factor in the idea that we have a few valuable prospects in our system, now that we can add to winter packages, I think  we'd have enough to make 2-3 very significant trades to fill 3 of our highest 6 need areas: SP2, Closer, solid P, 3B, 2B and 1B. The other 3 could be filled by spending to at least the level of replacing the contracts of Devers, Bregman, Buehler, Gio, Chapman and the lesser deals traded away, like Duran at $8M for '26.

This is not going to be easy. We can't afford swings and misses like Buehler and the Sale trade, unless we spend to absurd levels to fill the 6-7 high need areas plus keep or add to our depth.

I'm not sure JH is up to the task, especially after spending more, this past winter, and seeing no improvement.

[Nick]

Sitting tight other than to sell off parts absolutely not necessary or valuable.

Buehler, for his ineffectiveness

Chapman, get something of value and then parade few closer candidates to see what we have, Hendriks was a disaster in my opinion

Basically we have 4 rookies in our lineup, although one has been demoted.

C Narvaez, 1B Campbell 2B Mayer OF Anthony.  Don't worry about Campbell's position.

2nd year player in Rafaela, 152 games and 544 AB in 2024. OPS of .664 vs .716 in 2025.

He should be our fixture in CF based on his defense.

Another 2nd year guy in Abreu, 132 games and 399 AB in 2024, OPS of .781 vs .795 in 2025.

Just not sure why we want to get rid of him.

3rd year guy in Duran, 160 games and 671 AB in 2024, OPS of .834 vs .711 (really down).

Lets face it. We are young. Maybe we need to patient especially with these 7 players. Extend Bregman.

Keep DH open to allow Cora flexibility in our lineup.

And we are now back to the starting rotation. Bello does not possess swing and miss pitch. He's a #4/#5 at best.

I think I would bring back Giolito at this point. Who is better other than Crochet?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

 

I think I would bring back Giolito at this point. Who is better other than Crochet?

About 15-25 FA pitchers and dozens of trade candidates.

Gio may trigger his option, if he gets to 140 IP. he's at 59 IP, now with maybe 14 starts to go.

[Nick]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

About 15-25 FA pitchers and dozens of trade candidates.

Gio may trigger his option, if he gets to 140 IP. he's at 59 IP, now with maybe 14 starts to go.

I don't believe if he gets to 140 innings, with a mutual option of $19M, the Sox probably won't go for it. But if he falls short, it becomes $14M club option, which maybe reasonable. At least you know what you have with him. 

He has at least 15 more starts, needs about 81 innings. I think he gets there, 140 IP that is.

And let's not forget about Patrick Sandoval. We owe him $12.75M, or $9.125M luxury tax payroll for 2026. So he'll start us if he's healthy. 

So we could go Crochet, Giolito, Sandoval, Bello and Dobbins. 

I'd like to see Tolle and Sandlin pitch this year if we're out of it. 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

Obviously, I don't believe if he gets to 140 innings, it's a mutual option at $19M which the Sox probably won't go for it. But if he falls short, it becomes $14M club option, which maybe reasonable. At least you know what you have with him. 

He has at least 15 more starts, needs about 81 innings. I think he gets there, 140 IP that is.

And let's not forget about Patrick Sandoval. We owe him $12.75M, or $9.125M luxury tax payroll. 

So we could go Crochet, Giolito, Sandoval, Bello and Dobbins. 

I'd like to see Tolle and Sandlin pitch this year if we're out of it. 

We know what we have with Gio?

I can't think of many more questionable starters than he is.

I am not for running back the same rotation, next year, and I really like Sandoval.

Crochet is an ace.

Sandoval might be a good #3, but counting on him as a #4 is better.

Bello is a #4-5.

Dobbins is largely unknow: maybe a 4-5 is too high to bet him to be.

Gio is a #4-5, in my book. 

We need a #2, and maybe even a #2 and #3.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sox have to go 8-5 to get back to .500 by the All-Star Break. 

Anything less and I'll light the fire, while you place the flowers in the vase.

"Our team is a very very fine team."

Lol.

[moonslav59]

On 6/27/2025 at 9:18 AM, mvp 78 said:

Espinal - not a top 20 prospect

Buttrey 19th

Jerez - not a top 20 prospect

Beeks - 6th

That's a good haul for only trading 2 top 20 prospects IMO. I'm not sure you can do that nowadays. 

Equivalent would be like Connelly Early for Eovaldi. Uberstine and Jose Bello for Kinsler. Castro for Pearce. The system was weaker then, so the rankings aren't one for one. 

That was a stunningly successful deadline trade haul. One could argue we don't win the ring without these deals, combined.

The 2021 deadline (and post deadline) haul and cost was pretty damn good, too and nearly got us to the dance:

Schwarber for #9 Aldo Ramirez

Austin Davis for Michael Chavis (graduated prospect)

Hansel Robles for Alex Scherff (not ranked in top 20)

Travis Shaw off waivers (mid AUG)

Jose Iglesias signed (early SEP)

This might have been Bloom's finest moment of his tenure. (The Pivetta trade and Whitlock Rule 5 pick are other brief but nice moments.)

[Nick]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We know what we have with Gio?

I can't think of many more questionable starters than he is.

I am not for running back the same rotation, next year, and I really like Sandoval.

Crochet is an ace.

Sandoval might be a good #3, but counting on him as a #4 is better.

Bello is a #4-5.

Dobbins is largely unknow: maybe a 4-5 is too high to bet him to be.

Gio is a #4-5, in my book. 

We need a #2, and maybe even a #2 and #3.

Both Cease and the Detroit pitcher are represented by Boras. Maybe we should get tight with Boras by giving Bregman a 4-5 deal. 

Giolito pitched well in June. 

Like I said, I'd like to see couple of more minor league guys pitch this year. I'd like to see Password get some bats.

Maybe we should trade Duran. That means we are all in on Abreu. The Password will bring lefty/righty balance to the outfield. I don't believe Refsnyder returns next year. With the DH spot 'relatively' open, we can use DH spot to rotate Password, Anthony and Abreu to man 2 of the 3 OF positions.

We still need a full time 1B.

Maybe we can acquire another cost controlled 'fireballer' out of the pen.

Your approach seem to mirror Buehler/Giolito/Sandoval signings. 

I would just wait for a top free agent pitcher to come along and give the guy an offer he can't refuse. Hell we were willing to pay what's his name $700M.

 

[Nick]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That was a stunningly successful deadline trade haul. One could argue we don't win the ring without these deals, combined.

The 2021 deadline (and post deadline) haul and cost was pretty damn good, too and nearly got us to the dance:

Schwarber for #9 Aldo Ramirez

Austin Davis for Michael Chavis (graduated prospect)

Hansel Robles for Alex Scherff (not ranked in top 20)

Travis Shaw off waivers (mid AUG)

Jose Iglesias signed (early SEP)

This might have been Bloom's finest moment of his tenure. (The Pivetta trade and Whitlock Rule 5 pick are other brief but nice moments.)

Not done with the Pivetta trade. We get a sandwich pick between 2nd and 3rd round. Pick #75 in addition to draft pick from Milwaukee for Priester trade.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Nick said:

Both Cease and the Detroit pitcher are represented by Boras. Maybe we should get tight with Boras by giving Bregman a 4-5 deal. 

Giolito pitched well in June. 

Like I said, I'd like to see couple of more minor league guys pitch this year. I'd like to see Password get some bats.

Maybe we should trade Duran. That means we are all in on Abreu. The Password will bring lefty/righty balance to the outfield. I don't believe Refsnyder returns next year. With the DH spot 'relatively' open, we can use DH spot to rotate Password, Anthony and Abreu to man 2 of the 3 OF positions.

We still need a full time 1B.

Maybe we can acquire another cost controlled 'fireballer' out of the pen.

 

 

For 2026:

4-5 Top Priorities: SP2, Closer, 2B, 3B (Bregman?) and 1B

2-3 Secondary Priorities: Back-up Catcher, Solid Pitcher, Corner IF depth