A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[notin]

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

I agree.  There should be a 1-game playoff game.  Will one additional game/day really make that much of a difference to the teams who have byes in the first round?

The other thing I don't like, which others have mentioned, is all three games in the first series being played at the higher seed's home park.

That said, I don't know what the solution is that is going to appease everyone.

The one game playoff was a lot of fun.  More so watching Matt Holliday face plant the winning run than for watching Yaz meekly pop to third with the tying run on base.  But expanded post seasons have eliminated it because MLB should do its best to keep games out of November as much as possible.

I hate tiebreakers in any sport.  But settling everything on the field can the postseason out too far…

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What's the status of Roman Anthony? when he was injured initially they made it sound like he could be back in a week from now.  That could certainly help them in the playoffs. 

“Being around him a little bit, you can see he’s getting more comfortable,” Breslow said of Anthony, per MassLive’s Chris Smith. “When it first happened, you could look at him and tell that he was in quite a bit of discomfort and pain. That has subsided, but there’s still quite a bit of room to get to in terms of baseball activities.”

Considering Anthony hasn’t even started baseball activities, that four-week recovery timeline might be pushing for the star outfielder — given that Boston could be playing in the Wild-Card round in less than a week. 

“Making progress,” Breslow said of Anthony. “Getting a little more comfortable every day. But it’s an injury that we knew would take some time to heal and get back on the field. He and medical staff are working as hard as they can to try to accelerate the timeline to make that possible.”

 

Remember, Cora told Anthony to envision and ALCS first AB. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

After last night, the Tigers-Guardians series means less to us.

Houston can't beat out Boston for a wild card unless the Astros win one more game than the Red Sox in the final five.

So if the Sox go 2-3, the Stros need to go 5-0. Even if the Sox win just one more to finish 1-4, it will still be a tall task for a slumping club like Houston to finish 4-1.

But I still wouldn't want to be Detroit wobbling into Fenway this weekend with all the pressure of history squeezing their tracheas.

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

After last night, the Tigers-Guardians series means less to us.

Houston can't beat out Boston for a wild card unless the Astros win one more game than the Red Sox in the final five.

So if the Sox go 2-3, the Stros need to go 5-0. Even if the Sox win just one more to finish 1-4, it will still be a tall task for a slumping club like Houston to finish 4-1.

So they need to win 3 more games than us.

[Hugh2]

Looks like both Houston and Detroit are stumbling right now as well.  I was really looking forward to the youngester getting some playoff experience, yet a lot of them are on the IL.  I'm trying to envision where the playoff hero is going to come from. 

 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Looks like both Houston and Detroit are stumbling right now as well.  I was really looking forward to the youngester getting some playoff experience, yet a lot of them are on the IL.  I'm trying to envision where the playoff hero is going to come from. 

 

Story, Crochet, Bello, Gio, Chapman but you never know

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Looks like both Houston and Detroit are stumbling right now as well.  I was really looking forward to the youngester getting some playoff experience, yet a lot of them are on the IL.  I'm trying to envision where the playoff hero is going to come from. 

 

The hero is the bullpen.

BoSox got timely hits from Lowe and Narvaez last night, but there's nothing like four relievers throwing a no-hitter vs. the team leading the majors in hits, batting average and on base percentage.

The Sox will go as far as Wilson, Whitlock, Slaten and Chapman can carry them.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

 

What's the status of Roman Anthony? when he was injured initially they made it sound like he could be back in a week from now.  That could certainly help them in the playoffs. 

MLB.com....

INJURY UPDATES

OF Roman Anthony
Injury: Left oblique strain
IL date: Sept. 3 (10-day IL)
Expected return: Mid rounds of postseason at earliest
Status: The star rookie feels better moving around, but still hasn't been cleared for baseball activities and doesn't seem all that close. (Last updated: Sept. 23)

 

https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/roman-anthony-exits-game-with-injury

[notin]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So they need to win 3 more games than us.

… which puts the Sox magic number at 3

[moonslav59]

When you consider this team has come this far while missing these players for extended time, it's somewhat amazing:

#2 SP: Houck- our "ace" last year (missed 5 months)

#4/5 SP: Crawford- our IP leader in 2024.

#5/6 SP: Sandoval- expected to miss 3-4 months, but missed all 6.

#6/7 SP: Fitts- for over a month

#7/8 SP: Dobbins- for 4 months

#2-4 RP: Hendriks- missed 6 months

#2-4 RP: Slaten- missed about 2 months

1B: Casas - an .820 batter before 2025 (missed 5 months)

OF: Anthony- had become our best batter (missed last month)

3B: Bregman- our best batter all year (missed several weeks)

OF: Abreu- was our HR leader before missing some weeks on 2 occasions.

3B/2B: Mayer-  set to be our FT 2Bman after covering for Bregman at 3B.

(Then, we traded away Devers!)

Yes, other teams have had more injuries- maybe not to as important players as these, but many.

TOR has their 3 best SP'ers with 30+ GS. The Yanks lost their #1 all year. HOU loses 3-4 SP'ers every year. Other teams had big injuries. Some are making the playoffs- some aren;t.

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

When you consider this team has come this far while missing these players for extended time, it's somewhat amazing:

#2 SP: Houck- our "ace" last year (missed 5 months)

#4/5 SP: Crawford- our IP leader in 2024.

#5/6 SP: Sandoval- expected to miss 3-4 months, but missed all 6.

#6/7 SP: Fitts- for over a month

#7/8 SP: Dobbins- for 4 months

#2-4 RP: Hendriks- missed 6 months

#2-4 RP: Slaten- missed about 2 months

1B: Casas - an .820 batter before 2025 (missed 5 months)

OF: Anthony- had become our best batter (missed last month)

3B: Bregman- our best batter all year (missed several weeks)

OF: Abreu- was our HR leader before missing some weeks on 2 occasions.

3B/2B: Mayer-  set to be our FT 2Bman after covering for Bregman at 3B.

(Then, we traded away Devers!)

Yes, other teams have had more injuries- maybe not to as important players as these, but many.

TOR has their 3 best SP'ers with 30+ GS. The Yanks lost their #1 all year. HOU loses 3-4 SP'ers every year. Other teams had big injuries. Some are making the playoffs- some aren;t.

 

 

 

Yes, we  have had a lot of injuries and so have others. I remember the many one run games we lost and how at the time many were pointing out moves we could have made to win some of those. It takes the end of the season to highlight that we are on the knife edge of making the playoffs and those early losses were indeed meaningful. Strange that good hitting from lowe and Yoshida is where the offense comes from.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Yes, we  have had a lot of injuries and so have others. I remember the many one run games we lost and how at the time many were pointing out moves we could have made to win some of those. It takes the end of the season to highlight that we are on the knife edge of making the playoffs and those early losses were indeed meaningful. Strange that good hitting from lowe and Yoshida is where the offense comes from.

Good post.

I will say that our bottom of the order has been statistically better than other teams, and although Yoshida was batting clean-up, it has been unsung heroes, all year long. Romy, Ref, Lowe, Yoshida recently and Toro for a while, too. Eaton, too. How about a guy who started the season as our back up catcher and is now at .723- not bad for a catcher.

We've gotten 106 GS out of 157 of our scheduled top 5 SP'ers, and that is counting Crawford as our #6.

[mvp 78]

 

[mvp 78]

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Looks like Brez and Toboni will make good trade partners.

What talent does Washington have that would fill immediate Red Sox needs? Gore is damaged goods, while Wood is a big power threat who also leads the majors in strikeouts, bats lefthanded, and is poor outfielder.

[vegasbob]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good post.

I will say that our bottom of the order has been statistically better than other teams, and although Yoshida was batting clean-up, it has been unsung heroes, all year long. Romy, Ref, Lowe, Yoshida recently and Toro for a while, too. Eaton, too. How about a guy who started the season as our back up catcher and is now at .723- not bad for a catcher.

We've gotten 106 GS out of 157 of our scheduled top 5 SP'ers, and that is counting Crawford as our #6.

Interesting that in ST in '25 , Houck and Crawford were key parts of the rotation .   Now Houck will most likely miss most of '26 , and Crawford will have to scramble to become a part of the mix or perhaps go back to BP duty.

I am guessing that out of the 26 man roster in the final game vs. Detroit , up to 8 players will not be on the 26 to open '26.   That assumes there is a 2026 season, a whole new topic.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Good post.

I will say that our bottom of the order has been statistically better than other teams, and although Yoshida was batting clean-up, it has been unsung heroes, all year long. Romy, Ref, Lowe, Yoshida recently and Toro for a while, too. Eaton, too. How about a guy who started the season as our back up catcher and is now at .723- not bad for a catcher.

We've gotten 106 GS out of 157 of our scheduled top 5 SP'ers, and that is counting Crawford as our #6.

its not even the same unsung heros , its a rotation of hot streaks from unlikely sources. Toro, Eaton, Romy, Refsnyder, Lowe have all had hot streaks.

[drewski6]

39 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Looks like Brez and Toboni will make good trade partners.

What talent does Washington have that would fill immediate Red Sox needs? Gore is damaged goods, while Wood is a big power threat who also leads the majors in strikeouts, bats lefthanded, and is poor outfielder.

Thats quite the description of Wood, who is one of the very best young players in baseball at 6'7, crazy power, wheels and former #1 prospect in baseball coming into his own.

Hes got more trade value than Roman Anthony

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

48 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats quite the description of Wood, who is one of the very best young players in baseball at 6'7, crazy power, wheels and former #1 prospect in baseball coming into his own.

Hes got more trade value than Roman Anthony

I know, but are any exaggerations? 

He's a great talent, but a negative dWAR outfielder with 215 Ks. For Boston's current needs, Wood is not an upgrade on D or O, except for his home runs. 

Rather than deal the farm for a guy like that -- if he is even available -- wouldn't it just make more sense to pay money to sign Schwarber to DH and keep all the prospects?

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Looks like Brez and Toboni will make good trade partners.

What talent does Washington have that would fill immediate Red Sox needs? Gore is damaged goods, while Wood is a big power threat who also leads the majors in strikeouts, bats lefthanded, and is poor outfielder.

Washington needs pitching.  Maybe some middle infield help…

[moonslav59]

From MLB.com

 

341
ERA+ for resurgent Red Sox closer Aroldis Chapman here in his age-37 season. This means Chapman has been 241% better than the league average reliever!

Only three times in history has a reliever 37 or older had an ERA+ this high while logging at least 50 innings -- and they were all relatively recent Red Sox. The others were Koji Uehara in 2013 (379 in 74 1/3 innings) and Chris Martin in 2023 (434 in 51 1/3 innings).

So if you’re a reliever getting up there in years, you know where to go.

[moonslav59]

Only time this has happened...

 

6 divisions (aka, every single one of them!) in which a first-place team has blown a lead of at least 5 1/2 games. According to Elias, this has never happened before in the six-division era, which dates back to 1994.

The Yankees were as many as eight games up in the AL East before the Blue Jays caught them.

The Mets were 5 1/2 games up in the NL East before the Phillies caught them.

The Cubs were 6 1/2 games up in the NL Central before the Brewers caught them.

The Astros were seven up in the AL West before the Mariners caught them.

The Dodgers were nine up in the NL West before the Padres caught them (though the Dodgers have since recovered).

And most astonishing of all, the Tigers were a season-high 15 1/2 up in the AL Central at one point, but they finally got caught by the Guardians on Tuesday night.

[moonslav59]

We still hold the 8the best MLB records and 4th best AL record. It is a league of flawed teams, as I pointed out all year long, and the Tigers and Astros are adding more evidence to that position. The streaking Yanks had a 26-35 stretch. They played under .500 baseball for a half season stretch (40-411.) Teams like CLE and the M's, who had some earlier stretches of questionable play are now looking like juggernauts. Guess what? They are flawed, too. The Jays are flawed. Hell, the Dodgers, who bought the world twice over have just two more wins than the stingy JH team.

The good sides and bad sides of these teams seem to come and go willy-nilly. There is no rhyme or reason to any of it. As bad as the Astros are playing, they are still just 1 GB, because the Tigers have found a way to play even worse for longer.

It looks like TOR or NYY will win the ALE and the other will be the WC1 team. BOS is 3 behind TOR, and a win tonight gives us a longshot chance of catching the Jays. The better news is that we are ...

+2 on DET (DET holds the tiebreaker and play us for 3 games to end '25.)

+3 on HOU (We hold the tiebreaker against them.)

The NL is tighter with the NYM holding a 1 game lead over AZ & CIN for the last WC slot.

 

[moonslav59]

No doubt, this team's offense has had some slumps, but even missing Devers, Casas, Anthony and then Abreu for part of the year, out team OPS is .748, but we see this...

.764 last 7 games

.730 last 14 days

.741 last 28 days

.750 since AUG 23rd.

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know, but are any exaggerations? 

He's a great talent, but a negative dWAR outfielder with 215 Ks. For Boston's current needs, Wood is not an upgrade on D or O, except for his home runs. 

Rather than deal the farm for a guy like that -- if he is even available -- wouldn't it just make more sense to pay money to sign Schwarber to DH and keep all the prospects?

He's a 23 year old DH. It's not a profile you can project to last as long as Roman's. 

[moonslav59]

Today's games:

BOS (Bello) at TOR (Varland)

DET (TBD) at CLE (Messick)

HOU (Valdez) at ATH (Ginn) Afternoon Game

CWS Martin) at NYY (Rodon)

COL (Blalock) at SEA (TBD)

[drewski6]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a 23 year old DH. It's not a profile you can project to last as long as Roman's. 

He wont stay a DH. Hes a better defender than Soto

[drewski6]

Aaron Judge is a freak, Elly is a freak, James Wood is a freak

You trade the farm for freaks.

[drewski6]

And James Wood is not available.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And fans in Washington would freak if Toboni came in and traded Wood -- even for Boston's Big Three...

... and fans in Boston would freak if Breslow traded a haul of org-hyped future for one freak.