A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Kimmi]

On 9/19/2025 at 8:09 AM, moonslav59 said:

This was CLE's line-up by OPS, yesterday:

.705

.644 (The "best hitter slot")

.860

.599 (Mr. Cleanup)

.790

.647

.462

.624

.510

.600

That's a 3 Wong and 3 DHam line-up.

And they still have a -9 run differential.  Yet they just keep winning and are 12 games over .500.

[Kimmi]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

No games in the American League, today.

6 games to go for everybody:

BOS: 3 at TOR & 3 v DET 

DET: 3 at CLE & 3 at BOS

CLE: 3 v DET & 3 v TEX

HOU: 3 at ATL & 3 at LAA

SEA: 3 v COL & 3 v LAD

NYY: 3 v CWS & 3 v BAL

While we play 3 at TOR, either DET or CLE will lose 2-3 games. Just win, baby!

 

We are 1 game up on CLE and HOU, but we own the tiebreaker against them both, so it's essentially 2 games.  We probably would not win the tiebreaker over DET unless we sweep them, and even then, it's iffy. 

We need DET to win against CLE, but to (obviously) lose against us.  We really need to win at least 2 against TOR, which might be handing the Yankees the division, but so be it, And also win at least 2 against DET.  This stuff makes my head hurt!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Kimmi said:

We are 1 game up on CLE and HOU, but we own the tiebreaker against them both, so it's essentially 2 games.  We probably would not win the tiebreaker over DET unless we sweep them, and even then, it's iffy. 

We need DET to win against CLE, but to (obviously) lose against us.  We really need to win at least 2 against TOR, which might be handing the Yankees the division, but so be it, And also win at least 2 against DET.  This stuff makes my head hurt!

Certainly, we have better odds beating out CLE and HOU than DET, but they are playing so poorly, I gotta like our odds vs them, too.

I'm still not giving up on NYY, either, but they have the easiest ride of all the teams still in it.

[Maxbialystock]

52 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly, we have better odds beating out CLE and HOU than DET, but they are playing so poorly, I gotta like our odds vs them, too.

I'm still not giving up on NYY, either, but they have the easiest ride of all the teams still in it.

Boston has 85 wins, Detroit 85, Cleveland 84, and Houston 84.  Cleveland's hot--we'll soon see how hot against Detroit--so I think Detroit and Houston are our competition.  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Boston has 85 wins, Detroit 85, Cleveland 84, and Houston 84.  Cleveland's hot--we'll soon see how hot against Detroit--so I think Detroit and Houston are our competition.  

With the tiebreaker vs HOU & CLE, we are basically up 2 with 6 to go, so they seem like the "easier" ones to finish ahead (or tied) with. If we tie DET, we'd better have swept them, because they have 3-0 record vs us, now.

I'm not sure what teh second tiebreaker is, and I don't want to find out.

[illinoisredsox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the tiebreaker vs HOU & CLE, we are basically up 2 with 6 to go, so they seem like the "easier" ones to finish ahead (or tied) with. If we tie DET, we'd better have swept them, because they have 3-0 record vs us, now.

I'm not sure what teh second tiebreaker is, and I don't want to find out.

The 2nd (and 3rd) tiebreakers are complicated enough.  In the event of a 3 way tie (entirely possible), I think MLB will require some time on a Cray Supercomputer to figure it all out.

Near as I can tell, virtually all the tiebreakers on several levels are within a game of each other, meaning there are too many permutations to even try and figure out.

Bottom line, the Red Sox control their own destiny.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 hours ago, Kimmi said:

We really need to win at least 2 against TOR, which might be handing the Yankees the division, but so be it, And also win at least 2 against DET.  This stuff makes my head hurt!

this is A Realistic View of 2025: the Blue Jays not only have the best record in the AL, but the best home record: in Toronto, they are 50-25. 

Since the Jays win 2 out of every 3 games at home all season, it is realistic to expect Boston -- tepid at best all month -- to go 1-2 this week. 

That's not the end of the world, though, since Cleveland vs. Detroit means one of them is guaranteed to lose at least 2.

But then the Red Sox will pretty much have to win the final series at Fenway Park this weekend to get into the postseason... which is full frontal feasible with the added adrenaline of a raucous weekend crowd, and suffocating pressure on the visitors to stave off what could be an all-time epic choke.

[Hitch]

Winning the first game of the series tonight would take a lot of pressure off. 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Winning the first game of the series tonight would take a lot of pressure off. 

Ideally, winning first two and HOU/CLE losing next two. 

[moonslav59]

While TOR has played consistently well from about May onwards, they are just 2 games better than NYY and 5 better than BOS. The run differentials are:

+144 NYY

+105 BOS

+66 TOR

SEA, DET and even TEX have better run differentials.

My point is, they are not clearly the best team in the balanced American league. They have the starpower. Springer is having a great year (.953) and Vladdy is Vladdy (.869.) Bichette bounced back nicely and is at .840. They have 8 guys with 11+ HRs. Perhaps, the driving force to their perch on top of the ALE is having 3 SP'ers with 30+ GS:

3.38 Gausman

3.96 Bassitt

4.06 Berrios

They added Bieber, who has done okay since coming off the IL (3.57 in 6 GS.)

Their closer has been questionable: 4.50 ERA and 4.81 FIP.

We can beat these guys, but we need to come with our "A game." I know, How cliche?"

Just win, BABY!

[Bellhorn04]

44 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Winning the first game of the series tonight would take a lot of pressure off. 

It would be great but I don't know how much pressure it would remove.  Depends on what other teams do of course.

[Hitch]

21 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be great but I don't know how much pressure it would remove.  Depends on what other teams do of course.

Relieve the pressure in that we have to get one win in this series. We'll still have pressure but it will make things a lot more easy if we can grab an early W. We could easily go 0-3 on this series. 

[moonslav59]

32 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be great but I don't know how much pressure it would remove.  Depends on what other teams do of course.

It would give the other teams one less opportunity to gain. Eventually, the clock runs out.

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the tiebreaker vs HOU & CLE, we are basically up 2 with 6 to go, so they seem like the "easier" ones to finish ahead (or tied) with. If we tie DET, we'd better have swept them, because they have 3-0 record vs us, now.

I'm not sure what teh second tiebreaker is, and I don't want to find out.

Then do not read this;

1.  Head to head

2. Intradivisional record (regardless of whether or not both teams on in the same division)

3. Intraleague record

4. Intraleague record in the second half

5. Outcome of previous Intraleague game on schedule, counting back until tie is broken

 

[moonslav59]

Today's SP'ers:

Gio at Gausman

Skubal (DET) at Williams (CLE)

Javier (HOU) at Springs (ATH)

S Smith (CWS) at Gil (NYY)

Wednesday:

Crochet at Scherzer

Flaherty (DET) at Bibee (CLE)

TBD (HOU) at TBD (ATH)

TBD (CWS) at Fried (NYY)

Thursday:

Bello at Bieber

TBD (DET) at Messick (CLE)

TBD HOU at TBD ATH

Martin (CWS) at TBD (NYY)

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the tiebreaker vs HOU & CLE, we are basically up 2 with 6 to go, so they seem like the "easier" ones to finish ahead (or tied) with. If we tie DET, we'd better have swept them, because they have 3-0 record vs us, now.

I'm not sure what teh second tiebreaker is, and I don't want to find out.

If the Sox sweep the Tigers and even the H2H record at 3-3, it will come down to how each team fared in the previous series. Sox are 30-19 in division games; Detroit is 29-20.  So Boston needs to have won as many game as Detroit. If both teams end up 32-20 or 33-19 in division games, Detroit holds the tiebreaker for AL games, currently up by 6.  No way Boston can rely on that tiebreaker. (If Detroit loses out, it won’t be necessary.)

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Then do not read this;

1.  Head to head

2. Intradivisional record (regardless of whether or not both teams on in the same division)

3. Intraleague record

4. Intraleague record in the second half

5. Outcome of previous Intraleague game on schedule, counting back until tie is broken

 

So, a three way tie, the first tiebreaker is head to head records among just the 3 teams?

Depending on who the 3 are we are....

4-2 CLE

4-2 HOU

0-3 DET (3 to go)

9-4 NYY

3-3 SEA___

Detroit

3-0 BOS (3 to go)

4-6 CLE (3 to go)

4-2 HOU

2-4 SEA

4-2 NYY

Cleveland

2-4 BOS

6-4 DET (3 to go)

4-2 HOU

2-4 SEA

3-3 NYY

 

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be great but I don't know how much pressure it would remove.  Depends on what other teams do of course.

At the very least, winning tonight does not add any additional pressure.  How’s that?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

At the very least, winning tonight does not add any additional pressure.  How’s that?

We know one of the key teams will lose, tonight, so a win by us has to relieve some pressure.

[Kimmi]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Certainly, we have better odds beating out CLE and HOU than DET, but they are playing so poorly, I gotta like our odds vs them, too.

I'm still not giving up on NYY, either, but they have the easiest ride of all the teams still in it.

I won't give up on catching the Yankees until the math says that I have to, but they play the White Sox and the Orioles, so I'm not seeing a lot of help there.  The Os could win a couple of games for us, but I'm not sure that the White Sox can muster even one win.

As I've said, I really don't like having to rely on other teams to win (or lose) games for us.  We just have to take care of our own business.

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Boston has 85 wins, Detroit 85, Cleveland 84, and Houston 84.  Cleveland's hot--we'll soon see how hot against Detroit--so I think Detroit and Houston are our competition.  

It's amazing how far Detroit has fallen.  On July 8, they had a 14 game lead on the division and were, IMO, the best team in baseball.  Now, they might not even make the playoffs.

[dgalehouse]

The dumb tiebreaker rule should be flushed down the drain. 

[Kimmi]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the tiebreaker vs HOU & CLE, we are basically up 2 with 6 to go, so they seem like the "easier" ones to finish ahead (or tied) with. If we tie DET, we'd better have swept them, because they have 3-0 record vs us, now.

I'm not sure what teh second tiebreaker is, and I don't want to find out.

The second tiebreaker is the record within the division.  The Sox hold a slight edge over Detroit (1 game?) at the moment, but with both teams playing within the division this next series, that could change.  At any rate, it would be pretty hard for us to sweep the Tigers.  I'm pulling for the Cleveland and Houston to lose.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

this is A Realistic View of 2025: the Blue Jays not only have the best record in the AL, but the best home record: in Toronto, they are 50-25. 

Since the Jays win 2 out of every 3 games at home all season, it is realistic to expect Boston -- tepid at best all month -- to go 1-2 this week. 

That's not the end of the world, though, since Cleveland vs. Detroit means one of them is guaranteed to lose at least 2.

But then the Red Sox will pretty much have to win the final series at Fenway Park this weekend to get into the postseason... which is full frontal feasible with the added adrenaline of a raucous weekend crowd, and suffocating pressure on the visitors to stave off what could be an all-time epic choke.

I do not disagree with any of this 5GG.  It's going to be very difficult to win the series against the Jays, in Toronto, no less.  That said, I remain hopeful, as always.

I'm sure I speak for most if not all of us when say I'd rather take care of the wins sooner rather than later.  I really don't want to see it come down to us having to win the last 2 games to get in.

[Kimmi]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ideally, winning first two and HOU/CLE losing next two. 

Pretty please.

[Kimmi]

15 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

The dumb tiebreaker rule should be flushed down the drain. 

I agree.  There should be a 1-game playoff game.  Will one additional game/day really make that much of a difference to the teams who have byes in the first round?

The other thing I don't like, which others have mentioned, is all three games in the first series being played at the higher seed's home park.

That said, I don't know what the solution is that is going to appease everyone.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, Kimmi said:

I do not disagree with any of this 5GG.  It's going to be very difficult to win the series against the Jays, in Toronto, no less.  That said, I remain hopeful, as always.

I'm sure I speak for most if not all of us when say I'd rather take care of the wins sooner rather than later.  I really don't want to see it come down to us having to win the last 2 games to get in.

Your post does not belong on A Fatalistic View of the Last Days of 2025.

But it could be on An Opportunistic View of the Last Days of 2025. 

[moonslav59]

5 games to go and we have a tenuous hold on the 4 slot in the AL. 2 games behind SEA and 3 behind NYY looks too hard to do anything about, especially since we do not play them.

We are one up on DET & CLE, who play each other 2 more times. We have the tiebreaker w CLE but not DET. We are now 2 up on HOU and hold the tiebreaker, so they would have to gain 3 on us in 5 days.

Another win or two vs TOR would do wonders for the nerves and anxieties.

16 hours ago, Kimmi said:

 

[Hugh2]

It's very weird right now.  Sox are definitively better this year, but they're beat up right now, young, missing key players, and apparently don't have that last ingredient that could propel them from being a WS champion. 

It's weird, because we are at the end of the season and these games matter, right now they are in the playoffs but it's tight right at the finish line.  Given their current bill of health, I'm not too optimistic about what we could do in a series. 

But you know what they say? just make the playoffs and seee what happens. 

What's the status of Roman Anthony? when he was injured initially they made it sound like he could be back in a week from now.  That could certainly help them in the playoffs. 

[Hugh2]

Sox are playing Toronto, who is fighting to hold the top spot and the 1st seed.  Then we play Detroit, who right now are exactly in the playoffs, one day could throw them out, they've also lost 7 in a row, but they could be in a must win situation when we play too. 

Meaningful baseball.