A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Larry Cook]

I hope bres-slow and desperate Dave are talking!!!!  

[Hitch]

18 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Who did this happen to?

Campbell came up and hit fine. The league then caught up to him. If he stayed in AAA for 6 more months, the league would have just caught up to him at that point. He just needs to figure it out.

 

Nope. He was brought up too soon. Hitting fine with a sample size of only a month offers us absolutely nothing. And if the league adjusts to you and you can't adjust back, and cant seem to find it in AAA when you go back down either (he still can't pull the ball worth a damn), you came up too fast. Not to mention, his defence was nowhere near ready - he was dreadful. He wasn't ready offensively and especially defensively. 

I forget where I heard it (might have been McAdams), but I commented on this the other day - when you fly through the minor league system, the levels never have the time to adjust to you and so you keep skimming along. Then when an adjustment finally happens (especially at the majors), you can look lost which is exactly what he did.

I'm not saying he's finished - far from it, but he clearly wasn't ready. He'll be back I've no doubt.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Nope. He was brought up too soon. Hitting fine with a sample size of only a month offers us absolutely nothing. And if the league adjusts to you and you can't adjust back, and cant seem to find it in AAA when you go back down either (he still can't pull the ball worth a damn), you came up too fast. Not to mention, his defence was nowhere near ready - he was dreadful. He wasn't ready offensively and especially defensively. 

I forget where I heard it (might have been McAdams), but I commented on this the other day - when you fly through the minor league system, the levels never have the time to adjust to you and so you keep skimming along. Then when an adjustment finally happens (especially at the majors), you can look lost which is exactly what he did.

I'm not saying he's finished - far from it, but he clearly wasn't ready. He'll be back I've no doubt.

What is he going to learn in AAA that will get him ready for MLB? There is a huge difference in pitching. Even if he starts to rake in AAA again, it won't show that he's ready to be promoted. Is he working on pulling the ball with authority or pitch recognition? Did he have those issues prior to April? The Sox clearly either felt he was the most ready, or just wanted him up because he was the only guy who they could extend. 

[Hitch]

32 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What is he going to learn in AAA that will get him ready for MLB? There is a huge difference in pitching. Even if he starts to rake in AAA again, it won't show that he's ready to be promoted. Is he working on pulling the ball with authority or pitch recognition? Did he have those issues prior to April? The Sox clearly either felt he was the most ready, or just wanted him up because he was the only guy who they could extend. 

Well your last sentence offers no crumbs of comfort. I really don't think it was because they thought he was the one most likely to sign, but if it was, it only strengthens my argument.  

If you don't think he can learn how to be a better, or even passable defender in the minors, and learn to pull the ball and hit the pitches he was struggling with, and lay off the ones he shouldn't be going near, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe we should just get rid of the minors as they're obviously no good to prospects trying to learn. 

The guy was at sea in the majors. He was brought up too soon. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hitch said:

Well your last sentence offers no crumbs of comfort. I really don't think it was because they thought he was the one most likely to sign, but if it was, it only strengthens my argument.  

If you don't think he can learn how to be a better, or even passable defender in the minors, and learn to pull the ball and hit the pitches he was struggling with, and lay off the ones he shouldn't be going near, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe we should just get rid of the minors as they're obviously no good to prospects trying to learn. 

The guy was at sea in the majors. He was brought up too soon. 

What I'm saying is that the types of pitches he'll see in MLB aren't indicative of the pitches he'll see in AAA. He may master AAA pitching and may continue to struggle after promotion. That's just how some players turn out. It says nothing about the value of the minors, just the learning curve as players advance. 

[Duran Is The Man]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What I'm saying is that the types of pitches he'll see in MLB aren't indicative of the pitches he'll see in AAA. He may master AAA pitching and may continue to struggle after promotion. That's just how some players turn out. It says nothing about the value of the minors, just the learning curve as players advance. 

Bobby D. agrees.

[Hitch]

40 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What I'm saying is that the types of pitches he'll see in MLB aren't indicative of the pitches he'll see in AAA. He may master AAA pitching and may continue to struggle after promotion. That's just how some players turn out. It says nothing about the value of the minors, just the learning curve as players advance. 

Quality wise I agree, but there's still clearly things to work on with him. He didn't come up and you think - ah he's there, he just needs a little tweak here and there. 

He couldn't pull the ball at all (or hit certain pitches), and was an appalling defender.  He needs a reset and rebuild, not tweaking. That's not happening (nor should it in my view) at the majors.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Quality wise I agree, but there's still clearly things to work on with him. He didn't come up and you think - ah he's there, he just needs a little tweak here and there. 

He couldn't pull the ball at all (or hit certain pitches), and was an appalling defender.  He needs a reset and rebuild, not tweaking. That's not happening (nor should it in my view) at the majors.

The Red Sox had zero interest in making him a quality defender prior to calling him up. I'm not sure that's changing now. 

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

The Red Sox had zero interest in making him a quality defender prior to calling him up. I'm not sure that's changing now. 

I'm really not sure that's true and have a hard time believing that. I think they torpedoed him by moving him around the spots. Or maybe they thought he was better than he was.

As an aside - I understand the need for flexibility, but I wish they'd teach these guys their positions and leave them there on times. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mayer has a 30% K-rate but nobody is saying he doesn't belong in the majors -- because on defense, he is clearly a big league infielder.

That was evident even in Spring Training, where Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell on both sides of the ball. Marcelo wasn't bragging when he asked whether he thought he should have made the team -- it was pretty obvious to anyone watching, who was the best rookie infielder.

Posters have speculated why the Red Sox instead awarded Campbell a starting position out of camp -- merit for 2024, willingness to sign a team-friendly extension, his right-handed swing, more AAA seasoning needed for Mayer -- but nobody knows for sure.

The front office was too busy congratulating themselves for creating KC to tell us.

 

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Mayer has a 30% K-rate but nobody is saying he doesn't belong in the majors -- because on defense, he is clearly a big league infielder.

That was evident even in Spring Training, where Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell on both sides of the ball. Marcelo wasn't bragging when he asked whether he thought he should have made the team -- it was pretty obvious to anyone watching, who was the best rookie infielder.

Posters have speculated why the Red Sox instead awarded Campbell a starting position out of camp -- merit for 2024, willingness to sign a team-friendly extension, his right-handed swing, more AAA seasoning needed for Mayer -- but nobody knows for sure.

The front office was too busy congratulating themselves for creating KC to tell us.

 

I do genuinely believe they thought they had a superstar with him. Obviously we've had a back and forth on this already and I always lean towards being careful with these guys as the jump is so big as we've seen time and time again. But I feel even stronger that they went crazy fast with Campbell and he has A LOT that needs work still. 

Your last line feels right on the money. 

[moonslav59]

Long ago, I wondered how Lynn and Rice might have done, had they been opening day players in 1974.

At age 19, Rice hit .861 in A+, then he hit .987 in AA+AAA in 1973. He was killing AAA in '74 at .971.

At age 21, Lynn hit .863 in AA (first prof level) That was 1973. I can see why he was not jumped to MLB the next April, but he did hit .857 in AAA in 1074. (He also had played college ball at USC beforehand.)

I seriously doubt we'd have ruined them, had they joined the club in April 1974. I'm not sure they'd have led us to the playoffs, either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Big Three in the majors

Kristina Campbell.... 229 AB, 51 H, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 29 BB, 72 K, .223 BA

Anthony and Mayer 247 AB, 61 H, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 BB, 75 K, .247 BA

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Well your last sentence offers no crumbs of comfort. I really don't think it was because they thought he was the one most likely to sign, but if it was, it only strengthens my argument.  

If you don't think he can learn how to be a better, or even passable defender in the minors, and learn to pull the ball and hit the pitches he was struggling with, and lay off the ones he shouldn't be going near, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe we should just get rid of the minors as they're obviously no good to prospects trying to learn. 

The guy was at sea in the majors. He was brought up too soon. 

The minors are where young ballplayers are supposed to learn the fundamentals of the game. Not completely sure this is happening in the Sox farm system. It seems the players the Sox acquire from other teams are more fundamentally aware than the players that come through their own system.

 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm really not sure that's true and have a hard time believing that. I think they torpedoed him by moving him around the spots. Or maybe they thought he was better than he was.

As an aside - I understand the need for flexibility, but I wish they'd teach these guys their positions and leave them there on times. 

You don't believe that they didn't care about him getting better defensively, but believe that they torpedoed him by moving him around and never sticking him at one position to truly learn it. To me, that's the definition of not caring.

[mvp 78]

18 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The minors are where young ballplayers are supposed to learn the fundamentals of the game. Not completely sure this is happening in the Sox farm system. It seems the players the Sox acquire from other teams are more fundamentally aware than the players that come through their own system.

 

I don't agree with this. Fundamentals are down completely across the game. Young players spend more time hitting than anything else. Fielding is perceived to be far less important in their development and moving on to high school, college or getting drafted. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Big Three in the majors

Kristina Campbell.... 229 AB, 51 H, 6 HR, 21 RBI, 29 BB, 72 K, .223 BA

Anthony and Mayer 247 AB, 61 H, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 25 BB, 75 K, .247 BA

Wow, Annie Anthony and Mary Mayer are doing about the same as Kristina.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

You don't believe that they didn't care about him getting better defensively, but believe that they torpedoed him by moving him around and never sticking him at one position to truly learn it. To me, that's the definition of not caring.

I think they tried to do what they do with all young players and build in flexibility, but that hurt his defensive development. I don't think they did this on purpose.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

I think they tried to do what they do with all young players and build in flexibility, but that hurt his defensive development. I don't think they did this on purpose.

Usually, if they are moving guys around that low in the minors, it's because they are trying to find a defensive home for the player, not to make the player more versatile (ex. Justin Gonzales, Yoeilin Cespedes. Blaze, Brannon, Matthew Lugo). With Rafaela, they tried him in the OF to see what it looked like and he took to it almost immediately. From that point, he was like 75/25 CF/SS. That may be an exception due to his outstanding defense. Otherwise, they haven't gone in that direction from what I remember. 

[Kimmi]

22 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

When deadline trades happen, they are often a surprise.  The many fantasy trade proposals and rumors seldom actually happen. It has to be a stressful time for the players and their families. Not knowing where you will be ten days from now. 

All of the speculation and rumors about our players being traded are hard for me to deal with as a fan.  I can't imagine what it must be like for the players, especially Duran right now.  You always hear about how baseball is a business and it comes with the territory, but on the personal side, being traded does uproot your family.  They say moving is one of the most stressful things in life.

[moonslav59]

Devers to start at 1B, tonight!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Wow, Annie Anthony and Mary Mayer are doing about the same as Kristina.

Believe it or not, that was a typo and not a joke. See what I get for trying to be serious...

What may be harder to believe is that not one of the Biggest Billed Three have become Lynn or Rice or Nomar or Pedroia or Fisk or Boggs or Mookie or Bogey or even Greenwell, Burks and Benzinger.

Heck, even forum punching bag Andrew Benintendi hit 20 homers and had 20 stolen bases in his 3 WAR rookie year.

[vjcsmoke]

We had a really nice 10 game win streak that was topped by a great sweep of the Rays. But the last 5 games we've gone 1-4 against winning clubs like the Cubs and Phillies.

Did we only catch lightning in a bottle, and these are the real Red Sox? Will we be able to consistently beat good teams or only beat up on division doormat clubs?

Hard to say because of course 5 games is small sample size. But it's certainly a little concerning. What's the missing jigsaw puzzle here? Or is this who we really are as a ballclub and we can't make a couple of deadline moves to improve from this?

[vjcsmoke]

8 hours ago, Kimmi said:

All of the speculation and rumors about our players being traded are hard for me to deal with as a fan.  I can't imagine what it must be like for the players, especially Duran right now.  You always hear about how baseball is a business and it comes with the territory, but on the personal side, being traded does uproot your family.  They say moving is one of the most stressful things in life.

Meh. Moving is stressful but these ballplayers have millions and millions of dollars to smooth over that move process. I've moved multiple times in my life and never had the money to pay professional movers or have a nice mansion waiting for me to get into at the end of the move.

I think the fan attachment of losing a favorite player is more what moves sentiment. As a professional athlete, you already know this is part of the deal, in return you get MILLIONS of dollars to soften landing in a new area if you get traded. 

[Hitch]

14 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Usually, if they are moving guys around that low in the minors, it's because they are trying to find a defensive home for the player, not to make the player more versatile (ex. Justin Gonzales, Yoeilin Cespedes. Blaze, Brannon, Matthew Lugo). With Rafaela, they tried him in the OF to see what it looked like and he took to it almost immediately. From that point, he was like 75/25 CF/SS. That may be an exception due to his outstanding defense. Otherwise, they haven't gone in that direction from what I remember. 

I'm not sure that's true any longer. I agree with your other point to someone else that fundamentals are down across the board. In part I believe because they are trying to bring in flexibility to roster building. Cora and Bres mention it over and over and over. 

Campbell is not a good defender (at least right now) - he needs a position and told it's his - now make yourself great there and force us to play you. Defensive flexibility is going to be no good if you're rubbish in every position. 

I think they likely thought his bat was good enough to put up with bad defence. But he has huge holes that need addressing over a long period of time. 

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, vjcsmoke said:

We had a really nice 10 game win streak that was topped by a great sweep of the Rays. But the last 5 games we've gone 1-4 against winning clubs like the Cubs and Phillies.

Did we only catch lightning in a bottle, and these are the real Red Sox? Will we be able to consistently beat good teams or only beat up on division doormat clubs?

Hard to say because of course 5 games is small sample size. But it's certainly a little concerning. What's the missing jigsaw puzzle here? Or is this who we really are as a ballclub and we can't make a couple of deadline moves to improve from this?

I think we're probably where a lot (most?) of us thought we were - .500. The run before the ASG was exhilarating and catapulted us, but we're back to what we saw before that. Our schedule is brutal and I think it likely points to more .500. If we really wanted to go for it we needed to get help in immediately and boost us on this harsh run of games we are in the midst of. They didn't because I think they wanted to see who we are after this stretch. And we're showing we are what we've been all year - a young team with multiple highs and lows. 

But this isn't like other years - we're close. This is a talented team and we're just getting started.  If we can flip Gio and Chaman (and others) into pieces ready to go for us next year, we need only a few additions in FA and we're going to challenge for half a decade or more with the core we have. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Devers to start at 1B, tonight!

He didn't hit 9th like the Red Sox 1b. Good riddance though! 🙃

[Hitch]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He didn't hit 9th like the Red Sox 1b. Good riddance though! 🙃

Hard to do that when you refuse to play 1B for your team. 👍

[Hugh2]

Told ya'll he'd play 1B in SF.  It was never about not wanting to play 1B it was about his spat with the front office, and while they may have mishandled it in the offseason....asking him to move to 1B after Casas went down was a perfectly reasonable ask.  His reluctance to do so, regardless of his relationship and feelings towards the F.O. were a direct slap in the face to his teammates. 

 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Told ya'll he'd play 1B in SF.  It was never about not wanting to play 1B it was about his spat with the front office, and while they may have mishandled it in the offseason....asking him to move to 1B after Casas went down was a perfectly reasonable ask.  His reluctance to do so, regardless of his relationship and feelings towards the F.O. were a direct slap in the face to his teammates. 

 

100%. And still people will defend it. Bizarre.