A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Nick]

3 hours ago, notin said:

And bench  Campbell?

nope....give him enough at 3 infield positions. At some point both story and bregman will need some rest.

We can move Campbell to OF from time to time.

[Maxbialystock]

On 5/10/2025 at 5:35 PM, alsoason said:

We are at the quarter pole and 2025 looks alot like 2024 record wise so far. The bottom three have collectively have been MIA. baseball in general some very high scoring games early on, makes me wonder what the summer holds when the ball really starts to fly. They need to hit better then they have so far to be a force going forward. We NEED RUNS, lot's of them. 

Sox took 2/3 at KC while giving up exactly 1 ER in 3 games.  So the pitching looks pretty good.  KC has the 2d best team ERA in MLB and the Sox scored 14 runs off them in 3 games.  

Three games are miniscule in a 162 game season, but nevertheless I find those 3 games to be encouraging.  

On 5/10/2025 at 7:24 PM, notin said:

Which makes DH easier to fill. 
 

All Star or not, he’s not a good defensive 3b.  
 

If Cora said he didn’t think Devers should play first because he wouldn’t be very good, thats one thing.  That’s a managerial decision. (Or if Devers said the same thing, that’s ok too.)

But Devers saying he doesn’t refusing because want to be moved around again is completely different.  If Chapman blew a few saves and refused to go to the setup role, would you agree with him? 

Chapman is a relief pitcher, period.  Not closing happens when you can't get guys out.  But you can still contribute as the setup guy or whatever and work your way back to closing.  Almost every closer faces that reality.

Devers played 3b for 8 seasons and in 3 of them went to the ASG, so of course he was out of sorts when Bregman was hired and basically given 3b.  However, it was a good move, as we all agree.  Bregman is hitting great and playing a good third base (DWAR +0.3).   

Cora declared to Devers he would be DH forever, I think mostly to get him to focus on hitting and nothing else.  As it turns out, DH is perfect for Devers, just as it was for Ortiz and JDM.  He's the only Sox player in all 42 games this season.  This could even increase his long term viability as a hitter.  Ortiz was 40 all of his last season, played in 151 games, and had an OPS of 1.061.  

To me moving Devers to DH was smart and moving him to 1b is just stupid.  It will distract from his hitting, make him more vulnerable to injury, and possibly subject him to ridicule if he doesn't pan out.  

On top of that, there is absolutely no urgent need to replace a lousy hitter (Casas this season), with one of your top three hitters on the Sox.  When the Sox came to KC last Friday, the Royals were one of the hottest teams in MLB.  The Sox won 2 of 3 and in the 2 wins hitless Sogard played 1b.  I think Gonzalez will be just fine at 1b when he comes off the IL.  

 

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Abraham Toro has brief history of going on hot streaks when initially called up, causing many fans to remark “where was this guy hiding?”  They’re inevitably followed  by cold streaks where those same fans ask “can we send him back there?”

 

We never got the hot streak…

 

Meh.  I agree he can't hit (so far), but I also don't care that he can't.  Casas wasn't hitting much either.  The Sox won both games Toro started at 1b--against a hot KC team.   Plus Cora has at least two other options with the current crew.  When Gonzalez gets off the IL, he will be better for the Sox than Casas was.  Also, Wong played some first base last year.  

[Larry Cook]

Over the course of a 162 game season. Different position players contribute in different games. Some days player A has a great game, and some days player B has a great game. 

these Red Sox are so frustrating because it feels like unless Bregman, abreau or devers are hitting, the other 6 guys are just not capable of producing runs!!!
 

Duran and story are very pedestrian and frustrating to watch!!!!!!  First base and catcher have been a black hole almost all year. (Although narveaz has contributed a little) Campbell and rafeala are not getting any key hits. 
 

my point is, I would much rather Mayer and Anthony get at bats instead of Duran and story !!!! 
 

it is too much to ask that the pitching staff has to hold teams to 1 run for us to have a chance to win!!!!!

[TedYazPapiMookie]

You might want to slow your horses with respect to a minor league player coming to the MLB and performing like they did against minor league pitchers.  It's not realistic.  This team will be fine.  It's got slightly above league average talent and should win 81 to 90 games based on injuries.  The upgrade in pitching is the biggest difference from the .500 teams of recent years.  It's not enough to win the division but they should make the playoffs and possibly could win their first series thanks to the new pitchers.  The hitting will get shut down by good pitching and most of the teams in the playoffs will have shutdown capabilities so this isn't the year they will win a ring but it's better than the last 5 since Dombrowski was fired and Mookie thrown away.

[Bellhorn04]

Those were some pretty good hitting tips Henry gave Raffy.

(Someone had to use this joke.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

28 minutes ago, TedYazPapiMookie said:

You might want to slow your horses with respect to a minor league player coming to the MLB and performing like they did against minor league pitchers.  It's not realistic.  This team will be fine.  It's got slightly above league average talent and should win 81 to 90 games based on injuries.  The upgrade in pitching is the biggest difference from the .500 teams of recent years.  It's not enough to win the division but they should make the playoffs and possibly could win their first series thanks to the new pitchers.  The hitting will get shut down by good pitching and most of the teams in the playoffs will have shutdown capabilities so this isn't the year they will win a ring but it's better than the last 5 since Dombrowski was fired and Mookie thrown away.

You're kind of all over the map here.  You're saying they should make the playoffs but you're also saying they could still be only a .500 team. 

And you seem to be overlooking that in 2021 they won 92 games and made the ALCS.   

[TedYazPapiMookie]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

You're kind of all over the map here.  You're saying they should make the playoffs but you're also saying they could still be only a .500 team. 

And you seem to be overlooking that in 2021 they won 92 games and made the ALCS.   

The team's pitching is better giving them a chance to make the play-offs.  They have been injury prone which could leave them a .500 team again.  Doesn't feel all over the map to me.  Pretty straight forward opinion.  Should be slightly better if injuries don't hurt them.  Even mentioned they could win a first round playoff series.

2021 was a fluke.  That team was a sub .500 team that over performed and they proved it the next year and the year after that not to mention how far below .500 they were in 2020 when Bloom destroyed the organization stability with his horrendous mistakes at trading.

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Sox took 2/3 at KC while giving up exactly 1 ER in 3 games.  So the pitching looks pretty good.  KC has the 2d best team ERA in MLB and the Sox scored 14 runs off them in 3 games.  

KC is 27th in wRC+ and 26th in runs.

 

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Over the course of a 162 game season. Different position players contribute in different games. Some days player A has a great game, and some days player B has a great game. 

these Red Sox are so frustrating because it feels like unless Bregman, abreau or devers are hitting, the other 6 guys are just not capable of producing runs!!!
 

Duran and story are very pedestrian and frustrating to watch!!!!!!  First base and catcher have been a black hole almost all year. (Although narveaz has contributed a little) Campbell and rafeala are not getting any key hits. 
 

my point is, I would much rather Mayer and Anthony get at bats instead of Duran and story !!!! 
 

it is too much to ask that the pitching staff has to hold teams to 1 run for us to have a chance to win!!!!!

Of all the things to hit Duran with - pedestrian would not be one I'd ever think to pick. 

[Hitch]

Something to potentially keep an eye on - Sean McAdams has stated:

“There’s some growing frustration within the Red Sox organization about outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela. More than once, Rafaela has been advised in the dugout to take the first pitch in his next at-bat, only to swing freely minutes later.”

To which Red Sox Assistant Hitting Coach Dillon Lawson replied:

"This is news to me."

 

Seems odd that McAdams would just make something up like this. And it fits. But, seems unlikely a coach would jump into a public discussion without feeling sure-footed. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Of all the things to hit Duran with - pedestrian would not be one I'd ever think to pick. 

Hard to put Duran and "hit" in the same sentence this season. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Something to potentially keep an eye on - Sean McAdams has stated:

“There’s some growing frustration within the Red Sox organization about outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela. More than once, Rafaela has been advised in the dugout to take the first pitch in his next at-bat, only to swing freely minutes later.”

To which Red Sox Assistant Hitting Coach Dillon Lawson replied:

"This is news to me."

 

Seems odd that McAdams would just make something up like this. And it fits. But, seems unlikely a coach would jump into a public discussion without feeling sure-footed. 

Lawson probably didn't want to throw his player under the bus like that. Good on him. Not sure how that kind of stuff gets out there. 

Not sure the Sox are going to get Rafaela to have metrics better than where they are right now anyway. He has cut way down on his k's and increased his bb's. Just let him be who he is and he's on a bit of a roll right now anyway (767 OPS, 108 wRC+ since 4/22). Seems like they are priming the pump for a change in CF. 

[Bellhorn04]

Rafaela is playing great.  His bWAR is up to 1.6, 4th best on the team.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Rafaela is playing great.  His bWAR is up to 1.6, 4th best on the team.

If I'm making a move to get Roman on the team, I'm dealing Jarren. He still has a lot of value around the league. He's a top of the order bat. He has less control than the other OFers. 

It would be a huge shakeup, but is the right move for the product on the field. 

And the "sources say Rafaela isn't taking pitches" is straight from Sam Kennedy's playbook. I hate that. 

[moonslav59]

13 hours ago, Nick said:

nope....give him enough at 3 infield positions. At some point both story and bregman will need some rest.

We can move Campbell to OF from time to time.

That will never come close to aa FT job for Campbell, unless he plays CF 8 out of 10 games.

[sk7326]

The wild one so far has been Trevor Story.  

First of all, the defense has tailed off badly if you look at Statcast Outs Above Average.  (-2 from +2 last year)  And - this is the confounding thing - his launch angle numbers have dropped ... but a lot of the hard hit ball data, the stuff which was so concerning last year, has been really good.  He seems to be running into a lot of hard outs.  Normally, a .650 OPS with bad defense is unplayable (and nothing should stop them from putting in Mayer if they feel he is ready) but Story has seemed to unlucky as much as anything at the plate at least. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, sk7326 said:

The wild one so far has been Trevor Story.  

First of all, the defense has tailed off badly if you look at Statcast Outs Above Average.  (-2 from +2 last year)  And - this is the confounding thing - his launch angle numbers have dropped ... but a lot of the hard hit ball data, the stuff which was so concerning last year, has been really good.  He seems to be running into a lot of hard outs.  Normally, a .650 OPS with bad defense is unplayable (and nothing should stop them from putting in Mayer if they feel he is ready) but Story has seemed to unlucky as much as anything at the plate at least. 

I'd give his D a little more time, but it is looking more and more like a move to 2B is nearing. (Campbell to CF, but then where does Anthony fit into the OF mix? DH?)

[sk7326]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If I'm making a move to get Roman on the team, I'm dealing Jarren. He still has a lot of value around the league. He's a top of the order bat. He has less control than the other OFers. 

It would be a huge shakeup, but is the right move for the product on the field. 

And the "sources say Rafaela isn't taking pitches" is straight from Sam Kennedy's playbook. I hate that. 

100%.  Rafaela has been sensational in CF defensively, and again - looking at the baseball savant data, he IS largely making good contact.  He is going to be streaky at the plate and taking pitches ain't his jam ... but I see no reason he can't be productive enough to stay out there.  

[sk7326]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd give his D a little more time, but it is looking more and more like a move to 2B is nearing. (Campbell to CF, but then where does Anthony fit into the OF mix? DH?)

Anthony will slot in at a corner - I'd rather trade Duran than Abreu but the preference is fairly weak.  Campbell I look at longer term as basically a Ben Zobrist type who can play enough positions at a non-embarassing level to let the bat and plate approach shine through.  Heck, I'd just move Campbell to 1B if there is a real logjam.  

[Nick]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That will never come close to aa FT job for Campbell, unless he plays CF 8 out of 10 games.

Campbell would be my starting 2B.

It's about getting Mayer enough bats.

I think he is better option than Hamilton. Realistically, what more can AAA teach  Mayer? So what if he gets 'hot' in AAA? It's time to improve the major league team.

Mayer will be under team control for 6 years starting in 2026. Why not use him right now to improve our team?

He can give much needed rest for Story. Story needs a mental break.

[Nick]

Hey Moon

I asked if we should build our rotation around our 4 youngest starting pitchers? Youngest to oldest. They will all be 26 on 12/31/25.

R Fitts, H Dobbins, G Crochet, B Bello.

The next youngest believe it or not is P Sandoval. Then Houck and Crawford.

Tolle and Early, both lefties look to be ready by 2027 if not sooner. They are 22 and 23 and ranked #8 and #9 in Soxprospects, just ahead of Fitts.

Thoughts?

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

7 minutes ago, Nick said:

R Fitts,

This is wild, just shows you what a crazy game baseball can be.

Injured Boston Red Sox Starter Could Join Sad Baseball History When He Returns

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Nick said:

Campbell would be my starting 2B.

It's about getting Mayer enough bats.

I think he is better option than Hamilton. Realistically, what more can AAA teach  Mayer? So what if he gets 'hot' in AAA? It's time to improve the major league team.

Mayer will be under team control for 6 years starting in 2026. Why not use him right now to improve our team?

He can give much needed rest for Story. Story needs a mental break.

Mayer could never come close to getting enough ABs, unless Campbell play CF 7-8 games out of 10.

We are not resting Bregman, Story and Campbell even 1 out of 10 games off, so at most he gets 2 games every 10 games. Id Campbell plays CF 3 out of 10, that's still just half playing time for Mayer.

I don't see that happening.

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Anthony will slot in at a corner - I'd rather trade Duran than Abreu but the preference is fairly weak.  Campbell I look at longer term as basically a Ben Zobrist type who can play enough positions at a non-embarassing level to let the bat and plate approach shine through.  Heck, I'd just move Campbell to 1B if there is a real logjam.  

I'm extremely hesitant on trading Duran, although I prefer Anthony and even Campbell in the OF over him.

I love Abreu, but he's a platoon player, only, right now. He has more years of control, though.

Ideally, we trade Story, so Campbell plays 2B, and we can keep Duran, Anthony and Abreu for the OF with Rafaela as the odd man out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, sk7326 said:

Story has seemed to unlucky as much as anything at the plate at least. 

? He's so unlucky, just about every time he swings, the ball misses his bat.

Second in the AL in strikeouts.

[notin]

14 hours ago, Nick said:

nope....give him enough at 3 infield positions. At some point both story and bregman will need some rest.

We can move Campbell to OF from time to time.

He’s looking like a future star.  Play him at one position, even if it’s first base…

[notin]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

? He's so unlucky, just about every time he swings, the ball misses his bat.

Second in the AL in strikeouts.

He’s unlucky, but the ball isn’t…

[Kimmi]

On 5/8/2025 at 8:57 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

The last few years the Red Sox seem to have been paying too much attention to another of the Greek philosophers, one of the lesser-known ones: Mediocrates. 😉 

No kidding.  It's getting on my nerves.  LOL  Every time I think this team is turning the corner, they sputter again.

Last year, we hit a season high 10 games over .500, then the All-Star Break happened.  

At least we are currently holding pace with the first place Yankees.

[Kimmi]

On 5/8/2025 at 11:40 AM, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

That and $5 will get you a Mega Millions ticket.

I can't believe the price of the Mega Millions ticket went up to $5.  LOL