A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[Hugh2]

The Sox are tied for the most wins in the A.L.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Bottom line, it's meaningless this early in the season. They've played 3 in division series and TEX, a team that will probably get to the playoffs. I'm not going to be upset that they are 2nd place in the division and above .500 at this point in the season even though Casas, Duran, Rafaela, Devers and every Catcher hasn't been able to hit a lick. 

Bottom line, it's not meaningless. Games in April count just the same as games in September.

[Hugh2]

I'm just happy the Sox are winning and we are back to arguing over the normal things that we can argue about when the team wins. 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Bottom line, it's not meaningless. Games in April count just the same as games in September.

100% although I would feel much better about a team winning in September than I would about a team winning in April. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

100% although I would feel much better about a team winning in September than I would about a team winning in April. 

Well, I understand what you are saying.

But, if a team doesn't do enough winning in April, they may be too far behind for their September wins to matter. Not saying this is the case with the sox right now.

[Hitch]

24 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Sox are tied for the most wins in the A.L.

All this despite there being a FULL BLOWN CRISIS going on! 😜

Hopefully we can close out this series against the Mariners and win (at least) one of the last two and build some belief and confidence in the fan base as we head into a very tough series against the Guardians. 

Nothing has changed for me - I am very excited about this team. I also think Breslow would swing a big trade if need be at the deadline to push us into genuine contenders territory. And we still have a bitching farm. Good times. 

[Hitch]

2 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, I understand what you are saying.

But, if a team doesn't do enough winning in April, they may be too far behind for their September wins to matter. Not saying this is the case with the sox right now.

But alternatively, all teams (and players) have runs where they're flying and runs where they're stuttering. Just because a team/player stutters in April, doesn't mean they should be written off. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Sox are tied for the most wins in the A.L.

I was told this team wasn't any good? 

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, I understand what you are saying.

But, if a team doesn't do enough winning in April, they may be too far behind for their September wins to matter. Not saying this is the case with the sox right now.

No I get it, I'm not disagreeing.  In the end all 162 games matter exactly the same.  But we do have to remember it's a marathon and not a race, but again I get it, we want to see the team win and look good.  

Still, I'd feel better about play in September, guys get cobwebs and slow starts, it happens to all teams.  I suppose who deals with it bests is better for it.  Sox are tied for the most wins so I'd say we are doing pretty good.  Maybe that's because of the "soft" schedule, and if so then hey.....I'd rather play these teams now rather than later. 

I think the Sox have enough talent on this team to compete with anyone if they're firing on all cylinders. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

16 hours ago, Hitch said:

How did he earn his spot? Spring Training? Have you always been of the mindset that ST stats matter? Or is this a new thing because you want to back up this point? Genuine question as you'd be very much in the minority in thinking ST stats matter for hitters much at all. The fact Campbell was given the job over him shows (quite rightly so far) that he was the guy to give the job to based off far more than meaningless baseball against pitchers trying to throw 5 curve balls in a row to get their feel. Honestly, I'm not entirely sure you know what you're arguing for here.

Thank you for your honesty and having the passion to write five paragraphs about something you admit you're not entirely sure about. 

However, in your zeal you rant about Spring Training stats that no one on the forum has ever cited about a player that no one has ever said needs to be called up to energize the offense.

My posts always refer to Marcelo Mayer's defense:

"Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell in the infield in Florida, and was as good or better than Story, as well. He knows he's a big leaguer... Mayer is MLB ready, and is clearly as good as any other Red Sox infielder with his glove and arm in the majors right now."

That was me talking Sox and showing enthusiasm, but of course anyone who watched the Red Sox in Florida in February and March saw the same, and also heard ex-MLB infielders Alex Cora and Lou Merloni rave about Mayer's composure.

To be fair, I did include his regular season batting stats in one post to show he was also contributing at the plate (currently leading the International League in Runs Batted In).

I'm just glad we agree on main points that a guy like Mayer would already be in The Show if he played for a weaker organization, and that a savvy front office like Boston's won't let statistics get in the way of promotion -- like when they moved Anthony to higher levels, or gave Campbell a starting job despite his sluggish ST.

It's a great time to be a fan when the Red Sox are winning and have capable reinforcements at the ready.

 

 

 

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I was told this team wasn't any good? 

Wasn’t any good, or not playing any good?

[Nick]

35 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Thank you for your honesty and having the passion to write five paragraphs about something you admit you're not entirely sure about. 

However, in your zeal you rant about Spring Training stats that no one on the forum has ever cited about a player that no one has ever said needs to be called up to energize the offense.

My posts always refer to Marcelo Mayer's defense:

"Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell in the infield in Florida, and was as good or better than Story, as well. He knows he's a big leaguer... Mayer is MLB ready, and is clearly as good as any other Red Sox infielder with his glove and arm in the majors right now."

That was me talking Sox and showing enthusiasm, but of course anyone who watched the Red Sox in Florida in February and March saw the same, and also heard ex-MLB infielders Alex Cora and Lou Merloni rave about Mayer's composure.

To be fair, I did include his regular season batting stats in one post to show he was also contributing at the plate (currently leading the International League in Runs Batted In).

I'm just glad we agree on main points that a guy like Mayer would already be in The Show if he played for a weaker organization, and that a savvy front office like Boston's won't let statistics get in the way of promotion -- like when they moved Anthony to higher levels, or gave Campbell a starting job despite his sluggish ST.

It's a great time to be a fan when the Red Sox are winning and have capable reinforcements at the ready.

 

 

 

yep

[Nick]

Yankees, Orioles and Rays have lost 2 in a row. Jays four straight.

Despite throwing only 51 strikes, Bello was able to give the Sox 97 pitches and 5 innings.

I am really anxious to see Giolito pitch next week. We should have Fits back sometime in May. Just need Casas and Duran to heat up a bit.

This will be a good team at full strength. 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Thank you for your honesty and having the passion to write five paragraphs about something you admit you're not entirely sure about. 

However, in your zeal you rant about Spring Training stats that no one on the forum has ever cited about a player that no one has ever said needs to be called up to energize the offense.

Asking you how you view ST stats is a rant? Um, okay. 

By the way, the conversation started with you stating:

Quote

Nope, trading him (Duran)

The Red Sox have to make room in the starting line-up for two good players: Anthony and Mayer. Anyone who watched Spring Training knows the Sox were a better team when both were on the field.

I then mentioned this was bordering on panic to which you replied: 

Quote

Who's panicking? All the teams in MLB history that promoted top prospects to inject energy into lethargic big league line-ups?

But yeah, no one has ever mentioned a player coming up to energise a team, huh? You then followed this up by pompously declaring that I should check baseball reference and that Mayer's stats show he is as good as Story. Mayer was hitting near the Mendoza line at the time and had an OPS of just above 500.

As fun as this has been, I'll bow out of the conversation here. I'd rather have discussions with posters who enter them in good faith. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Asking you how you view ST stats is a rant? Um, okay. 

By the way, the conversation started with you stating:

I then mentioned this was bordering on panic to which you replied: 

But yeah, no one has ever mentioned a player coming up to energise a team, huh? You then followed this up by pompously declaring that I should check baseball reference and that Mayer's stats show he is as good as Story. Mayer was hitting near the Mendoza line at the time and had an OPS of just above 500.

As fun as this has been, I'll bow out of the conversation here. I'd rather have discussions with posters who enter them in good faith. 

Posters of this forum should just feel lucky to have a self-appointed watchdog here to take the time to question all forum insanity and inanity.

[Hitch]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Posters of this forum should just feel lucky to have a self-appointed watchdog here to take the time to question all forum insanity and inanity.

I'd say that response sums up the way you approach conversations nicely. 

All the best to you. 👍

[mvp 78]

Mayer's last 4 games:

8 for 20, 2 2B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 14% K, 5% K

He had a 531 OPS on 4/17 and it's now at 752. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Posters of this forum should just feel lucky to have a self-appointed watchdog here to take the time to question all forum insanity and inanity.

Hey, I'm doing my best! 🐶

[Hitch]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Mayer's last 4 games:

8 for 20, 2 2B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 14% K, 5% K

He had a 531 OPS on 4/17 and it's now at 752. 

Alas, if only those stats existed a week ago,... Hopefully this small sample size stretches into prolonged play. Being stuck behind Bregman, Story and Campbell is a tough mountain to scale, however. There isn't a Rafaela you can see them moving aside for him in the infield. Though injury worries are more prevalent in the infield for sure. 

[mvp 78]

 

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Mayer's last 4 games:

8 for 20, 2 2B, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 14% K, 5% K

He had a 531 OPS on 4/17 and it's now at 752. 

If this would have happened the last two years Mayer would be up to Boston already. Unfortunately, or fortunately Story is healthy, and playing well. Both haven’t proved they can stay healthy the last two years, so only time will tell if either, or both can this year. I don’t see Mayer coming up anytime soon unless an injury, or a trade occurs, and to me it wouldn’t hurt Mayer to stay at Woo most of the year no matter how well he does.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If this would have happened the last two years Mayer would be up to Boston already. Unfortunately, or fortunately Story is healthy, and playing well. Both haven’t proved they can stay healthy the last two years, so only time will tell if either, or both can this year. I don’t see Mayer coming up anytime soon unless an injury, or a trade occurs, and to me it wouldn’t hurt Mayer to stay at Woo most of the year no matter how well he does.

Regardless of injury, I think Mayer should stay down through June. I think 3 months of AAA is enough. I'd consider calling him up and just not have him start every day. Do they need Hamilton AND Mayer? Mayer can play 2B/SS/3B. The only difference is that he's not a great pinch runner. I'm not sure that really matters for most of the season TBH. 

[moonslav59]

Sox are 8th in runs scored (3 behind 6th place)

T5th in everyday player fWAR

8th in OPS (.001 from 7th)

15th in ISO.

4th in pitching fWAR

6th in FIP

8th in ERA-

27th in OAA (Defense) but 3rd in DRS.

[jdc69]

38 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Alas, if only those stats existed a week ago,... Hopefully this small sample size stretches into prolonged play. Being stuck behind Bregman, Story and Campbell is a tough mountain to scale, however. There isn't a Rafaela you can see them moving aside for him in the infield. Though injury worries are more prevalent in the infield for sure. 

To be Mayer would be tough. For him to be so ready and have Story doing so well must give anxiety. With him, Casas and Yoshida, you have the makings of a great trade package for another top notch SP. Not saying I'd do it though, just a thought.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

27th in OAA (Defense) but 3rd in DRS.

Why the discrepancy? 

Catchers don't get OAA, so Narvaez's 6 DRS isn't counted (leads the league). Abreu has 5 DRS and 0 OAA (arm isn't factored into OAA calculation for OFers). Bregman has 2 DRS and -2 OAA. 

I don't think any of the defensive measurements are perfect, but they are all we have right now. 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Regardless of injury, I think Mayer should stay down through June. I think 3 months of AAA is enough. I'd consider calling him up and just not have him start every day. Do they need Hamilton AND Mayer? Mayer can play 2B/SS/3B. The only difference is that he's not a great pinch runner. I'm not sure that really matters for most of the season TBH. 

This feels most likely. He's able to play all the positions Hamilton can and likely better. But they won't burn a year just to have him as a utility now. But when they're free of that they can bring him up and bed him in with no pressure. You have the back up plan to Bregman then if he goes, and challenging Story if he doesn't. 

 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, jdc69 said:

To be Mayer would be tough. For him to be so ready and have Story doing so well must give anxiety. With him, Casas and Yoshida, you have the makings of a great trade package for another top notch SP. Not saying I'd do it though, just a thought.

It's been mostly click bait but there's been some noise recently around moving Mayer for Alcántara later in the year. I'm not sure it makes sense with Bregman possibly opting out and Story hardly a picture of health, but I can see the appeal if Alcántara proves he's back to his best. Mind you, if he is, half the league will be after him.

I really do feel Breslow has a big move in him come trade deadline if we're very much in it (and not a game or two out of the wildcard spots). Crochet shows he'll pull the trigger if it's right. But Mayer for anyone could be too steep a price. 

[mvp 78]

After getting two hits in Game 1 of a double header today, Mayer hit a HR in the first inning of Game 2. His OPS is now at 833. Dude is on an absolute tear the past week or so. 

[moonslav59]

I can't see us trading Mayer. Story's health is always a concern (as has Mayer's, so far,) and Story may end up at 2B or somewhere else. A big year may also get Story traded. If Story plays 2B, maybe Campbell plays OF or 3B, next year.

I still think Anthony gets the call first and maybe soon.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, Hitch said:

But alternatively, all teams (and players) have runs where they're flying and runs where they're stuttering. Just because a team/player stutters in April, doesn't mean they should be written off. 

I never said that anyone was written off.