A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

This is important!!! We are still very much in the conversation for a wildcard. 
 

Remember, we have starters coming back and then we can move some guys to the bullpen and send down the mediocre guys. (Wink, Kelly, etc) 
 

the offense on the other hand needs work. Devers. Casas, rafeala, Duran and Hamilton are not getting it done!!!

Sadly defense is still a huge issue as well!!!!!  It is amazing that bres-slow is not an alcoholic by now. 

Defense is supposed to be the easiest part of the game to project. I don't get it.

I'm not worried about the bats. I think Devers, Casas and Duran will come around, and in a big way. I just hope Story, Abreu and Campbell keep it going.

I'm worried about Houck and Buehler to a lesser extent. If one or both don't come through we need some borderline promises to step it up (3 or 4 from Bello, Gio, Fitts, Dobbins and maybe Crawford or Sandoval, later on.)

[Hitch]

10 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

No issues. Next time I spew nonsense about the Red Sox promoting very young prospects like Bogaerts, Betts and Devers, I'll be courteous enough to include website links to places like baseball-reference.com and mlb.com/milb/prospects.

Those places give good statistical and/or numerical perspective to the insanity of bringing up top prospects too young. 

They show the true destruction to the careers of Bogaerts, Betts and Devers, who have only combined to receive MVP votes 19 times, make 15 All-Star teams, and win 14 Silver Sluggers... so far. The same trio together has also earned or are under contract to be paid about one billion dollars.

Luckily, Boston's current Big Three prospects are more highly regarded before their MLB debuts by evaluators, so may be better bets not to have their careers similarly ruined forever if they all make the majors this season.

 

Yes, thank you for mentioning some of the most obvious stat based websites we have as fans. Websites like these are how I came to the conclusion that suggesting we need to bring Mayer up from AAA to give our offence the boost it's missing when he was hitting just over .200 with a 500+ OPS might not be the best thought out idea we've ever had on here. 

I can't quite decide whether you're willfully or accidentally missing my point, though I know which one I'm leaning towards.  As I haven't been asleep since 2013, you can safely assume I'm aware of how successful Xander, Mookie and Devers have been. The rather obvious point I was making (several times) is that the atmosphere around the club right now is not great and there's very much a lack of patience on display - evidenced among many other things by the fact that both Devers and Story (and Cora) were ready for the glue factory just two weeks ago if you read this board/social media. And maybe in that atmosphere we shouldn't be putting all the pressure on Mayer (who was performing poorly in AAA) and Anthony (who like it or not has a good chance of being kept down until they can buy another year/we pick up injuries) to turn everything around for the club. Add to this that most prospects have a hard time at some point after promotion, and stacking all the pressure on them before they even get here might not be the best thing in the world for them, especially if the fans start questioning their value after a slow start. But hey, maybe we shouldn't learn anything from the Duran situation and the toll the negativity took on him.  After all, why worry about what's best for their development. Another prospect will be along shortly that has a lot more chance of failing than succeeding - no biggie huh? But yeah, Mookie. 🙄

 

They will have to come up and prove themselves at some point. And I look forward to it. Hopefully it'll be at a point when the fanbase has gathered its composure back a little. I hold up little hope at the moment. 

[Bellhorn04]

18 hours ago, jdc69 said:

I think having one of the best farm systems in the league is very smart. If this was their plan when not resigning Betts, it becomes much more understandable. 

They didn't re-sign Betts because they didn't want to pay him what it took.  It was a mistake regardless of the farm system. 

[Bellhorn04]

44 minutes ago, Hitch said:

They will have to come up and prove themselves at some point. And I look forward to it. Hopefully it'll be at a point when the fanbase has gathered its composure back a little. I hold up little hope at the moment. 

Composure is kind of a big ask for a sports fan web site.

As for the Red Sox, starting with 2022 there have been plenty of reasons for angst and dissatisfaction in the fandom.  And the early results in 2025 contain some bad signs that there is more on the way.  When it's an enormous struggle to beat the White Sox, that's concerning.    

[Hugh2]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They didn't re-sign Betts because they didn't want to pay him what it took.  It was a mistake regardless of the farm system. 

I feel like this has been beaten like a dead horse.....because it has. 

Betts had told them year after year he was going to FA.  One might be able to deduce a negotiation tactic at play to get a certain dollar amount the Sox didn't want to meet. That's fair, and to state "because they didn't want to pay him what it took" is accurate.

Unfortunately the only evidence we have is that Betts signed an extension before reaching free agency.  That anecdotal evidence alone is pretty compelling but the world was also clouded with much more uncertainty in July 2020 than there was in July 2019 and prior. 

When the world is seemingly falling apart, Every country is shutting down their economy and markets are in a tailspin and they're playing games in empty stadiums....$365 million dollars looks A LOT DIFFERENT.  In a alternate reality without an such an unprecedented global pandemic in the modern world does Betts go to free agency? if so, trading him may have been the right thing to do at that point in time not being able to predict the future.  Unfortunately we don't live in that world and we will never know for certain.  Which is why the Mookie Betts conversation will never ever ever die....until we all just let it go. 

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I feel like this has been beaten like a dead horse.....because it has. 

Betts had told them year after year he was going to FA.  One might be able to deduce a negotiation tactic at play to get a certain dollar amount the Sox didn't want to meet. That's fair, and to state "because they didn't want to pay him what it took" is accurate.

Unfortunately the only evidence we have is that Betts signed an extension before reaching free agency.  That anecdotal evidence alone is pretty compelling but the world was also clouded with much more uncertainty in July 2020 than there was in July 2019 and prior. 

When the world is seemingly falling apart, Every country is shutting down their economy and markets are in a tailspin and they're playing games in empty stadiums....$365 million dollars looks A LOT DIFFERENT.  In a alternate reality without an such an unprecedented global pandemic in the modern world does Betts go to free agency? if so, trading him may have been the right thing to do at that point in time not being able to predict the future.  Unfortunately we don't live in that world and we will never know for certain.  Which is why the Mookie Betts conversation will never ever ever die....until we all just let it go. 

 

A local sports writer told me before Betts was traded that if the Red Sox let Betts go it will be the worst thing they have done since Babe Ruth. They did, and it was. Babe is still talked about today, and so is Betts, and Both will still be talked about for many years still to come, and should IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Another perspective to consider: if Spring Training offensive stats are meaningless -- batting vs. big leaguers trying new pitches or grips, or minor leaguers stressing to impress -- then so are early season stats.

Even the Red Sox dismiss certain metrics over others, like when they promoted Anthony to a higher level in the minors with a low batting average solely because of his hard-hit rates. Or when they started Campbell on Opening Day because he was the best minor league player last year.

Not all hitters flop like Holliday when first promoted to the majors. Sometimes, players enjoy more success seeing more strikes to swing at, under better lighting conditions, after better rest and nutrition from big league travel and accommodations, with bigger crowds cheering them on. At least, initially -- until pitchers (and advance scouts) find a hole in their swings to exploit.

Mayer's production at Worcester doesn't show struggles: 4 HRs, 22 RBI in 17 Games. He also has 16 Ks, so a similar profile to Story's start in Boston: 5 HR, 14 RBI, 25 Ks in 22 G. 

Let's also not forget Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell in the infield in Florida, and was as good or better than Story, as well. He knows he's a big leaguer; there's just no openings for him in Boston yet...

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I feel like this has been beaten like a dead horse.....because it has. 

Betts had told them year after year he was going to FA.  One might be able to deduce a negotiation tactic at play to get a certain dollar amount the Sox didn't want to meet. That's fair, and to state "because they didn't want to pay him what it took" is accurate.

Unfortunately the only evidence we have is that Betts signed an extension before reaching free agency.  That anecdotal evidence alone is pretty compelling but the world was also clouded with much more uncertainty in July 2020 than there was in July 2019 and prior.

Betts did not tell them he was going to FA, no idea where you're getting that.

Zack Scott explained the whole thing very well (there's a thread here about it) and everything he said supported Mookie's version of events.

[Old Red]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Another perspective to consider: if Spring Training offensive stats are meaningless -- batting vs. big leaguers trying new pitches or grips, or minor leaguers stressing to impress -- then so are early season stats.

Even the Red Sox dismiss certain metrics over others, like when they promoted Anthony to a higher level in the minors with a low batting average solely because of his hard-hit rates. Or when they started Campbell on Opening Day because he was the best minor league player last year.

Not all hitters flop like Holliday when first promoted to the majors. Sometimes, players enjoy more success seeing more strikes to swing at, under better lighting conditions, after better rest and nutrition from big league travel and accommodations, with bigger crowds cheering them on. At least, initially -- until pitchers (and advance scouts) find a hole in their swings to exploit.

Mayer's production at Worcester doesn't show struggles: 4 HRs, 22 RBI in 17 Games. He also has 16 Ks, so a similar profile to Story's start in Boston: 5 HR, 14 RBI, 25 Ks in 22 G. 

Let's also not forget Mayer clearly outplayed Campbell in the infield in Florida, and was as good or better than Story, as well. He knows he's a big leaguer; there's just no openings for him in Boston yet...

I think if Grissom would have played in camp like he has to start the season in Woo he would have started the year in Boston, and not KC. Mayer may have played better, but after missing valuable time on the IL the last two years he would have started the year at Woo regardless of how he played it ST.

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Betts did not tell them he was going to FA, no idea where you're getting that.

Zack Scott explained the whole thing very well (there's a thread here about it) and everything he said supported Mookie's version of events.

I'm sorry but that's just an inaccurate reporting of events.  The Red Sox offered multiple contract extensions to Betts and he turned them down according to multiple outlets such as CBS and Masslive, as well as talked about over and over again in previously by podcasters who have inside connections to the Sox front office. 

[Hugh2]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

A local sports writer told me before Betts was traded that if the Red Sox let Betts go it will be the worst thing they have done since Babe Ruth. They did, and it was. Babe is still talked about today, and so is Betts, and Both will still be talked about for many years still to come, and should IMO.

A lot depends on what a player does after they leave.  If Betts fell off a cliff last year, the Betts talk would have started to subside.  A great example of this is Xander Bogaerts, you see VERY little people complaining about the Sox not keeping him here. 

I get it though, that it's always going to be part of a conversation here.  It just irks me when people bring up the Betts debacle as some kind of contention about the Sox making future moves.  E.G. people complained about signing Soto because they didn't sign Betts.  Even if trading Mookie Betts is the worse move to have ever of been made in the history of sports it shouldn't exclude the Sox from trying to make other moves in the future.  I don't think that's what happened here in this conversation so I'm not trying to point anyone out on this board today for this but....I'm just saying. 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

50 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

 If Betts fell off a cliff last year, the Betts talk would have started to subside.  

But he didn't..........

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

but I also think this roster on paper, looks top 3-4 in the AL, and with minimal injuries and expected age related growth, we could be top 1-2.

 

 

You continue to claim this but I see very little evidence of it.

They have basically played .500 ball against a very easy early schedule and have gone 2-6 vs. teams over .500.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

But he didn't..........

Yes, he didn't. He's a stud. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I'm sorry but that's just an inaccurate reporting of events.  The Red Sox offered multiple contract extensions to Betts and he turned them down according to multiple outlets such as CBS and Masslive, as well as talked about over and over again in previously by podcasters who have inside connections to the Sox front office. 

The issue is that turning down extension offers, which he indisputably did, is not the same thing as stating your intentions to be a free agent. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox always made generous offers to Mookie, but they were always a year or two behind his market value at the time.

That wasn't an accident or coincidence or the fault of Dombrowski (known for overpaying to land free agents) or Bloom (hired to dismantle the team that hates Mantle).

Nope, the reason Betts is the Babe Ruth blunder of this century falls on a franchise front office haunted by  owners and dozens of college grads graphing data -- all of them thinking they're smarter than everyone else... and all of them outsmarting themselves.

[iortiz]

We need to send down Hamilton and Casas and brig up Mayer and Grissom. I bet either could play 1B. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

A lot depends on what a player does after they leave.  If Betts fell off a cliff last year, the Betts talk would have started to subside.  A great example of this is Xander Bogaerts, you see VERY little people complaining about the Sox not keeping him here. 

Exactly, and at the time we lost him, I pointed out that maybe even signing him to a $200M/7 or $160M/6 deal could actually not turn out to be the right thing to do.

He was never a plus defender at a very important defensive position.

His offense had begun to show some slight decline, especially his HR power.

He was about to turn 30.

Bogey 2018-2020: .907 OPS (136 OPS+)

Bogey 2021-2022: .848 OPS (130 OPS+)

with SDP '23-'25: .746 OPS (107 OPS+)

Some posters were going crazy about losing Bogey, and their silence is deafening, now.

I agree with Red, letting Betts go rivals the loss of the Babe. I'd have paid him $400M/14 and said so at the time, but sometimes letting stars go is the right thing to do (Pedro, Jake, JD, Beni,  Bogey and several others.)

Note: we got Campbell with the Bogey comp pick: nuff said.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Exactly, and at the time we lost him, I pointed out that maybe even signing him to a $200M/7 or $160M/6 deal could actually not turn out to be the right thing to do.

He was never a plus defender at a very important defensive position.

His offense had begun to show some slight decline, especially his HR power.

He was about to turn 30.

Bogey 2018-2020: .907 OPS (136 OPS+)

Bogey 2021-2022: .848 OPS (130 OPS+)

with SDP '23-'25: .746 OPS (107 OPS+)

Some posters were going crazy about losing Bogey, and their silence is deafening, now.

No posters were going crazy about it.  Some people thought they should have made a more serious effort to extend Bogaerts instead of signing Story.  Certainly no one was in favor of giving Bogaerts $280 million.

  

 

[Nick]

6 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They didn't re-sign Betts because they didn't want to pay him what it took.  It was a mistake regardless of the farm system. 

As it turns out, signing Betts would have benefitted the Sox MORE than signing/extending Xander, Devers, Yoshida and Story.

I would have preferred building the team around Betts.

That's why it was critical to extend Crochet. I also believe Bello will get to #2/#3 type.  Rafaela is very affordable even if we miss, we have enough young pieces to cover for him we made a mistake.

[harmony]

14 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

This is important!!! We are still very much in the conversation for a wildcard. 
 

Remember, we have starters coming back and then we can move some guys to the bullpen and send down the mediocre guys. (Wink, Kelly, etc) 
 

the offense on the other hand needs work. Devers. Casas, rafeala, Duran and Hamilton are not getting it done!!!

Sadly defense is still a huge issue as well!!!!!  It is amazing that bres-slow is not an alcoholic by now. 

At this precise moment, FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 59.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... while Baseball Reference gives the Sox a 16.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

Projections are tough.😉

[Nick]

Who gets demoted tomorrow? Bello is starting. Newcomb is pitching Wednesday night so he stays. It just sucks the Fitts had to get hurt. 

[Nick]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

At this precise moment, FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 59.0 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

... while Baseball Reference gives the Sox a 16.6 percent chance of advancing to the postseason:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2025-playoff-odds.shtml

Projections are tough.😉

Need to take 2 out of 3. Wing the series baby.

[Nick]

Technically we have 9 starters. This has to be our deepest group. (assuming they can all get healthy at the same time)

1 Crochet

2 Houck

3 Bello

4 Buehler

5 Newcomb

6 Fitts (IL)

7 Giolito (IL)

8 Fitts (IL)

9 Kutter (IL)

[Nick]

We would have been the fourth seed with a win Sunday vs lowly White Sox, ugh.

[harmony]

12 minutes ago, Nick said:

We would have been the fourth seed with a win Sunday vs lowly White Sox, ugh.

With the Patriots' Day win, the Red Sox moved into a virtual tie with their next opponent, the Seattle Mariners, who lead the Sox only by percentage points:

https://www.mlb.com/standings/league

 

 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, iortiz said:

We need to send down Hamilton and Casas and brig up Mayer and Grissom. I bet either could play 1B. 

I think Grissom could replace Casas now, but I world not bring up Mayer until he can play every day 

[Nick]

If Casas can't hit in April, he might as get left behind down South. 

We're wasting his bat. We don't need his ceiling right now. We just need someone to come in and hit .700 ops. That should not be very difficult at 1B.

HE IS RANKED 25 OUT OF 25 1B THAT QUALIFIES IN MLB. 

 

[Hugh2]

4 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The issue is that turning down extension offers, which he indisputably did, is not the same thing as stating your intentions to be a free agent. 

No it's not, not alone but lets be real honest and candid here - 

Turning down the 3rd largest contract extension of all time is effectively saying I'm going to free agency.  We could play semantics all day on this, but I'm saying right now that I'm not disputing the difference between definitively saying "I'm going to free agency" and eluding it by saying I'm turning down record money. 

But like I said, lets be real honest and candid with each other.  Turning down record money, coupled with rumors and reports you're going to free agency is saying you're going to free agency.  If we are being honest here. 

Betts saying he wanted to stay isn't evidence of the contrary.  Judge wanted to stay in NY, and still chose not to sign an extension.  Went to free agency and then came back to the Yankees to give them an opportunity to match/beat.  Which they did, if people remember the SF Giants had Judge in the bag until NY swooped in. 

Maybe Betts stays if the Sox don't trade him and he goes to free agency, but again, if they're not spending the money and he refuses to sign a team friendly deal I can't really blame them for trying to gain assets by trading him. 

[Bellhorn04]

34 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No it's not, not alone but lets be real honest and candid here - 

Turning down the 3rd largest contract extension of all time is effectively saying I'm going to free agency.  We could play semantics all day on this, but I'm saying right now that I'm not disputing the difference between definitively saying "I'm going to free agency" and eluding it by saying I'm turning down record money. 

But like I said, lets be real honest and candid with each other.  Turning down record money, coupled with rumors and reports you're going to free agency is saying you're going to free agency.  If we are being honest here. 

Betts saying he wanted to stay isn't evidence of the contrary.  Judge wanted to stay in NY, and still chose not to sign an extension.  Went to free agency and then came back to the Yankees to give them an opportunity to match/beat.  Which they did, if people remember the SF Giants had Judge in the bag until NY swooped in. 

Maybe Betts stays if the Sox don't trade him and he goes to free agency, but again, if they're not spending the money and he refuses to sign a team friendly deal I can't really blame them for trying to gain assets by trading him. 

'3rd highest of all time' doesn't mean much when prices are rising all the time and we're talking about the 2nd best player in the game at the time.

Their best offer didn't get to $300 million.  It was short of market value.   

They shouldn't get a pass for losing one of the best players in franchise history because he wouldn't sign a 'team friendly' deal.  Devers certainly didn't get a a 'team friendly' deal and he was a much lesser talent.