Red Sox Spring Training

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Reggie's shot off the light tower was impressive though.

There have always been great hitters. 

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Maybe bres-slow should be working the phones to see if there is a market for sogard or Hamilton. We can use more bullpen depth pieces!!!!!

I wouldn't trade Hamilton for a depth piece. Who is playing 2b to start the year? 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Exactly this. It always catches me out how much stock people put on ST numbers. Every year, people keep thinking they're witnessing the birth of a new superstar. The same guy that's been in the league for 7 years scratching to make a living. 

And they are hitting the daylights out of pitchers that are working on pitches, not trying to necessarily get hitters out. These guys are going out there and intentionally working on a specific pitch that day and not caring about the on field results because the game doesn't matter. They pull guys after 1.2 innings. It's not real baseball. I love these games, but don't look at Trayce Thompson and think he's all of a sudden a MLB talent because of a few weeks of ST baseball. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

15 seconds is plenty of time to throw a pitch. Imagine if basketball players got 15 seconds in-between every basket.   

15 seconds may be enough time, but this isn't really a fair comparison.  The games, the skills and the physical demands are totally different.  If pitchers' arms didn't have serious recovery needs they'd be able to throw 150 pitches every day. 

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

15 seconds may be enough time, but this isn't really a fair comparison.  The games, the skills and the physical demands are totally different.  If pitchers' arms didn't have serious recovery needs they'd be able to throw 150 pitches every day. 

That's why they get 4-5 days off in between starts and don't usually throw more than 110 pitches anymore! The pitch clock is two years old. TJS uptick started well before this.

[Bellhorn04]

21 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's why they get 4-5 days off in between starts and don't usually throw more than 110 pitches anymore! The pitch clock is two years old. TJS uptick started well before this.

I know, all I'm really saying is that it might a little early to say for sure this isn't causing a further uptick. 

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a study that shows injuries actually went down in 2023.  But it also says that further study is needed.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0972978X24002460

[moonslav59]

I think the uptick is a result of pitchers being instructed to throw with more and more spin and or velocity. 

The increased torque put on these guys arms is leading to the increase in injuries, IMO.

This may not be rocket science.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

And they are hitting the daylights out of pitchers that are working on pitches, not trying to necessarily get hitters out. These guys are going out there and intentionally working on a specific pitch that day and not caring about the on field results because the game doesn't matter. They pull guys after 1.2 innings. It's not real baseball. I love these games, but don't look at Trayce Thompson and think he's all of a sudden a MLB talent because of a few weeks of ST baseball. 

This is the reason the most deceiving ST stat isn't HRs or OPS -- it's ERA.

Batters facing meatballs or hanging fruit still have to make adjustments and barrel. 

Successful hitters fighting for jobs or roster spots certainly feel better than others in a funk.

If Abreu and Anthony are too weak from illness, I think most of us would rather see Kristian Campbell start somewhere in the outfield instead of Trace Thompson on Opening Day. By all industry evals, only one's a rising star, while the other's space debris circling the MLB orbit.

I'd prefer KC at 2B, where it still seems like there's time for him to win the position, despite how the org seems to overrate Hammy (unlike irrationally-impatient erudite posters like myself).

 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Here's a study that shows injuries actually went down in 2023.  But it also says that further study is needed.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0972978X24002460

Injuries may have went down in one year, but that also is a small sample size IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

And they are hitting the daylights out of pitchers that are working on pitches, not trying to necessarily get hitters out. These guys are going out there and intentionally working on a specific pitch that day and not caring about the on field results because the game doesn't matter. They pull guys after 1.2 innings. It's not real baseball. I love these games, but don't look at Trayce Thompson and think he's all of a sudden a MLB talent because of a few weeks of ST baseball. 

Agreed, but OTOH what is the point of playing a guy like Thompson so much in ST games unless there's some interest in him? 

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I think most of us would rather see Kristian Campbell start somewhere in the outfield instead of Trace Thompson on Opening Day. By all industry evals, only one's a rising star, while the other's space debris circling the MLB orbit.

I'd prefer KC at 2B, where it still seems like there's time for him to win the position, despite how the org seems to overrate Hammy (unlike irrationally-impatient erudite posters like myself).

Right now, Campbell is getting a lot of time in LF, but I think it's mainly due to the illness/injuries in the OF that have provided an easy opening for him to be slotted in and that the Sox really want to get as many opportunities as possible for Grissom at 2B. I think they'd rather Campbell/Hamilton at 2B, but need to see what they have in Grissom who missed a considerable amount of time last year.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Agreed, but OTOH what is the point of playing a guy like Thompson so much in ST games unless there's some interest in him? 

Abreu and Anthony have been out. There's just additional playing time available due all the nonsense going on.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

This is the reason the most deceiving ST stat isn't HRs or OPS -- it's ERA.

Batters facing meatballs or hanging fruit still have to make adjustments and barrel. 

Successful hitters fighting for jobs or roster spots certainly feel better than others in a funk.

If Abreu and Anthony are too weak from illness, I think most of us would rather see Kristian Campbell start somewhere in the outfield instead of Trace Thompson on Opening Day. By all industry evals, only one's a rising star, while the other's space debris circling the MLB orbit.

I'd prefer KC at 2B, where it still seems like there's time for him to win the position, despite how the org seems to overrate Hammy (unlike irrationally-impatient erudite posters like myself).

 

While 1050 PAs might seem like a large enough sample size, Thompson's are spread out over 7 seasons.

He did have a 290 PA stretch from 2021 to 2022, where he hit .889 (145 OPS+) with 17 HRs. It makes you wonder just how bad he had to be the other 760 PAs to end up with a .711 career OPS.

He's about to turn 31. It is very rare for someone to have a great career at 31, when they basically sucked, beforehand, but he could be one of the few.

I'm not advocating he make the 26, but if Anthony and Abreu are not ready, opening day, AND he keeps raking, like this, I would not be surprised if he gest the call over KC. (Perhaps both make the 26.)

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While 1050 PAs might seem like a large enough sample size, Thompson's are spread out over 7 seasons.

He did have a 290 PA stretch from 2021 to 2022, where he hit .889 (145 OPS+) with 17 HRs. It makes you wonder just how bad he had to be the other 760 PAs to end up with a .711 career OPS.

He's about to turn 31. It is very rare for someone to have a great career at 31, when they basically sucked, beforehand, but he could be one of the few.

I'm not advocating he make the 26, but if Anthony and Abreu are not ready, opening day, AND he keeps raking, like this, I would not be surprised if he gest the call over KC. (Perhaps both make the 26.)

He's about to turn 34! Born 3/15/91

His wRC+ was below 100 last season in AAA in 432 PA's as a 33 year old! If you only want to look at his MLB numbers, go for it, but there is a reason he's been a AAA guy (9 seasons, 2350 PA's) and is now in his 10th organization. 

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

15 seconds may be enough time, but this isn't really a fair comparison.  The games, the skills and the physical demands are totally different.  If pitchers' arms didn't have serious recovery needs they'd be able to throw 150 pitches every day. 

Yes, but the injury trend has been well established well before the pitch clock.  We know it's because guys are throwing harder, it's being taught to them at an earlier age.  All these camps emphasizing throwing hard.   

I don't buy the pitch clock is causing an increase in injury, I'm not sure if any studies have been done on that it would interesting if there were. 

[Hugh2]

I think of it like this. 

Lets say I was doing squats in the gym.  I was lifting 125 lbs and giving myself 20-25 seconds rest in-between sets.  If I decrease my rest time I'm not going to hurt myself if I'm I decrease my rest to 15 seconds.  I might run out of gas quicker, but if I get injured it's because I was in s*** shape and about to get injured anyways. 

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yes, but the injury trend has been well established well before the pitch clock.  We know it's because guys are throwing harder, it's being taught to them at an earlier age.  All these camps emphasizing throwing hard.   

I don't buy the pitch clock is causing an increase in injury, I'm not sure if any studies have been done on that it would interesting if there were. 

I posted a link to a study just a few posts back.  The results were favorable toward the pitch clock not causing injuries but it was just for 2023.

I'm agnostic on the issue, whatever the data shows it shows.  

[Hugh2]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I posted a link to a study just a few posts back.  The results were favorable toward the pitch clock not causing injuries but it was just for 2023.

I'm agnostic on the issue, whatever the data shows it shows.  

Yeah, data will change my mind but I'm pretty sure the pitch clock has a marginal affect at best.  As you said there's a study, albeit we might need more time to pass to truly know but they have OTHER studies that have definitively tied the rise in pitching injuries to other causes. 

If people don't like the pitch clock....that's fine. 

[dgalehouse]

This is not going to be too popular either,  but I am very skeptical of " Data".  I think much of the data we see, not just in baseball, but in everything, is often skewed and biased. It's like being influenced by reading things like, " experts say" or " studies have shown" . I think it is good to have your own mind and your own opinions . Through the years, I have learned to have a questioning attitude and a tendency to be cynical. And I certainly don't have any trust in the Lords of MLB. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

This is not going to be too popular either,  but I am very skeptical of " Data".  I think much of the data we see, not just in baseball, but in everything, is often skewed and biased. It's like being influenced by reading things like, " experts say" or " studies have shown" . I think it is good to have your own mind and your own opinions . Through the years, I have learned to have a questioning attitude and a tendency to be cynical. And I certainly don't have any trust in the Lords of MLB. 

But in this case the main data we're talking about is injuries, and the information we get on that is pretty much out in the open.  Red Sox fans know when one of their pitchers goes on the IL and for how long.

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

But in this case the main data we're talking about is injuries, and the information we get on that is pretty much out in the open.  Red Sox fans know when one of their pitchers goes on the IL and for how long.

I actually have a math based degree and spent quite a bit of time studying statistics.

Now I'd be lying if I said I break down the data of every study that comes out, hardly ever actually. I do whatever everyone else does and read the results.  Now, I don't think it's bad advice to tell people to be skeptical at all, but I do check things out from time to time, and when the people compiling data together are people well qualified, things tend to check out.  I think the problem comes from being able to tell what is a good study and what is NOT a good study, with considerations of the SOURCE!.  And most of us read a summarization of a study in the press and not the actually study itself.  Myself included, but when I have dived in things tend to check out when the source is good. 

People are trying to get things right.  Data scientists aren't dumb, and the doctors, surgeons, athletic trainers all want what's best. 

I don't think there's some secret national cabal of evil doctors, athletic trainers, surgeons, sports trainers etc etc etc. that aren't interested in finding out what is leading to the cause of a rise of injuries among mlb players  With a relative level of comfort, I trust those studies. 

Obviously it's something. they have decades of data now from the onset of all these "sports labs" they put kids in to up performance and to be quiet frank the leading explanation makes complete 100% sense to me. As a former athlete and someone who has been entrenched in the fitness industry their whole life it makes absolute sense to me that throwing harder and pushing your body's limit during a violent un-natural movement is going to increase your risk of injury.  That makes sense to me, I'd be very surprised if that was not the case. 

It will be interesting to see if the pitch clock does add to that.  I'd think if anything it would wear pitchers out quicker, and that might actually end up putting a little less stress on the arm.  That's literally a hypothesis made while writing this, I don't know but it is interesting. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

He's about to turn 34! Born 3/15/91

His wRC+ was below 100 last season in AAA in 432 PA's as a 33 year old! If you only want to look at his MLB numbers, go for it, but there is a reason he's been a AAA guy (9 seasons, 2350 PA's) and is now in his 10th organization. 

My eyes are worse than I thought.

[FredLynn]

9 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

15 seconds is plenty of time to throw a pitch. Imagine if basketball players got 15 seconds in-between every basket.  Also, I'm fairly certain the trend of increasing injuries and TJ surgeries started to rise WELL before the pitch clock. 

Basketball players get 24 seconds in between every basket, as you probably know. Giving them 15 seconds would ruin the game. You don't even have to get it across half court until 10 seconds are up.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, FredLynn said:

Basketball players get 24 seconds in between every basket, as you probably know. Giving them 15 seconds would ruin the game. You don't even have to get it across half court until 10 seconds are up.

That would be an interesting game, if the shot clock was 15 or even 18 seconds

[notin]

7 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

This is not going to be too popular either,  but I am very skeptical of " Data".  I think much of the data we see, not just in baseball, but in everything, is often skewed and biased. It's like being influenced by reading things like, " experts say" or " studies have shown" . I think it is good to have your own mind and your own opinions . Through the years, I have learned to have a questioning attitude and a tendency to be cynical. And I certainly don't have any trust in the Lords of MLB. 

Theres a difference between not trusting data and ignoring reality to reach a quicker conclusion…

[jad]

Statements such as "studies have shown" or "experts say" are not data.  If they don't cite and describe the study (or 'experts'), they don't even rise to the level of 'secondary sourced anecdote.'  There has only been one study cited here, I think.  And it can be critiqued if anyone is so inclined.   Otherwise, it's just "Back in aught-6, I was talking to my cousin, who told me of a guy who ..."

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

23 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Which ball specifically? I think a lot of the older measurements are completely made up (i.e. the Williams seat).

Yeah I never understood how they measured a 500 foot homerun in 1962.  But again I saw where that transformer was on the roof at Tiger Stadium that Reggie Jackson hit.  We just don't see moon shots like that anymore and if the players are so much stronger then how can we explain this? 

It can't be the ball, home run totals in 2024 were far higher than they were in 1971 yet we don't see the big bombs like we used to.  

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Yaz Fan Since 67 said:

Yeah I never understood how they measured a 500 foot homerun in 1962.  But again I saw where that transformer was on the roof at Tiger Stadium that Reggie Jackson hit.  We just don't see moon shots like that anymore and if the players are so much stronger then how can we explain this?  

There are really only two possible explanations:

1) Distances of past long balls were overstated.

2) The baseball is deader now.

What else could there be? 

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There are really only two possible explanations:

1) Distances of past long balls were overstated.

2) The baseball is deader now.

What else could there be? 

This is why I keep asking.  I SAW where Reggie hit that home run in the All Star Game. I saw Frank Howard hitting home runs to places that just aren't reached today.  A quick search showed me several articles that claim there have been no significant changes to the basebal since 1971 and home run totals are up dramatically today.  So this is puzzling to me.