Article: Steamer’s New Splits Projections for the Red Sox Aren’t Pretty

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I said, I think they did. It's an opinion.

We were over .500 for most of the season and got bitten by injuries. I think we were better.

So what you're talking about isn't really "playing better", you're just saying we had worse than average injury luck.

I disagree with your recap of the season.  The 2024 Sox were at .500 in mid-June.  They went on a great run for a month that put them about 10 games over.  That was really their only stretch of excellent play.  They came out of the break playing like crap and it all went down the tubes from there.  

[notin]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Grichuk vs LHP

'24 914

'23 995

'22 926

That's much more consistent than O'Neill. Use him like a Refsnyder that has a better glove. He's a better glove than O'Neill at this point too. 

I'm not trying to hype this guy up because the Sox won't sign him either. 

 

One thing in the Sox favor is the apparent lack of other teams clamoring for his services…

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

One thing in the Sox favor is the apparent lack of other teams clamoring for his services…

Clamoring for him as much as the Sox are!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So what you're talking about isn't really "playing better", you're just saying we had worse than average injury luck.

I disagree with your recap of the season.  The 2024 Sox were at .500 in mid-June.  They went on a great run for a month that put them about 10 games over.  That was really their only stretch of excellent play.  They came out of the break playing like crap and it all went down the tubes from there.  

I respect your opinion. I disagree. We were at or above .500, everyday, except one from opening day to June 3rd, when we were at 30-31. Then, the same from June 9th to Sept 17th. I'm not saying this is my metric, but the team felt like a winner, to me, for most of the year.

I hate to blame injuries, and our staff stayed pretty healthy, after GIO and Whitlock went down, but the Devers injury really hurt us, badly. I realize those last 4 games, where we went 1-4 matter just as much as the others, but we were out of it.

I'm fine with anyone thinking we were lucky to win 81` games, but I disagree.

I'm not expecting 100% health in 2025, but I think it's safe to expect near the norm. We have a few layers with recent or pro-longed injury histories, so maybe our odds are higher than others, but none of these returning guys are looking to start the year on the IL. (Murphy and Perales don't count. Maybe Whitlock missed a week or two.)

We have Gio and Hendriks about to play their first game in a Sox uniform.

Whitlock started 4 games and had an ERA under 2, then missed the whole season.

Story missed over 500 PAs, Casas over 350 and Yoshida and Ref enough to have an impact. (O'Nell is not coming back, so his missed games don't really factor into things, except we don't have 650 PAs to replace- just 473.) Devers played hurt and missed a couple weeks. I don't expect as many injuries, but who knows. If we have the same amount, I still think we finish ahead of TOR & TBR and win 85-90 games. (That's without Grichuk and or another RP'er added.)

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I respect your opinion. I disagree. We were at or above .500, everyday, except one from opening day to June 3rd, when we were at 30-31.

Right, but they  couldn't stay above .500 for more than a few games until mid-June.  They were:

7-7

9-9

10-10

19-19

22-22

26-26, 27-27 etc. right up to 35-35.

They were the Even Stevens.  The Maestros of Mediocrity.

They had one really good stretch, from mid-June to mid-July.  That was it.

 

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Right, but they  couldn't stay above .500 for more than a few games until mid-June.  They were:

7-7

9-9

10-10

19-19

22-22

26-26, 27-27 etc. right up to 35-35.

They were the Even Stevens.  The Maestros of Mediocrity.

They had one really good stretch, from mid-June to mid-July.  That was it.

 

Well, they did go 17-11 from March 31st to May 1st and had the best ERA for a while.

They had some bad and real bad stretches, too, so .500 took it all into account.

We were 10 games over .500 after 96 games. I understand weighing the second half more highly, but I don't see it that way.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, they did go 17-11 from March 31st to May 1st and had the best ERA for a while.

They had some bad and real bad stretches, too, so .500 took it all into account.

We were 10 games over .500 after 96 games. I understand weighing the second half more highly, but I don't see it that way.

I'm not weighing the second half more highly.  I'm weighing each game equally.  They won 81 of them and they lost 81 of them.

To what do you attribute the post-ASB record of 28-38?

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not weighing the second half more highly.  I'm weighing each game equally.  They won 81 of them and they lost 81 of them.

To what do you attribute the post-ASB record of 28-38?

 

If this is a free forum reply, here's mine: let's call it what it is: it's not just 2024, but the last three abysmal post-trade deadline records (August-Oct)...

'24: 24-30

'23: 22-34

'22: 27-32

Let's call it what it is -- the front office quit on the team and refused to acquire any legitimate reinforcements for the roster. And the young pro athletes -- who all knew, just like the fans, what they needed -- were totally discouraged to be abandoned and went through the motions down the stretch.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'm not weighing the second half more highly.  I'm weighing each game equally.  They won 81 of them and they lost 81 of them.

To what do you attribute the post-ASB record of 28-38?

 

The Devers injury hurt. General malaise. The failure of Paxton, Garcia and Sims to even do just okay.

Luis Garcia: 3.44 w SDP '22-'23. 3.71 w LAA in '24. 8.22 w BOS.

Lucas Sims: 3.10 w CIN in '23. 3.57 w CIN '24. 6.43 w BOS.

Paxton did okay, but only gave us 11 IP in 3 GS and  got hurt after 3 starts.

Martin was not nearly as good as 2023, and missed some time. Slaten went on the IL, and the pen was a disaster.

Our starters came down to earth after the first 4-6 weeks, but still did okay (99 ERA- after May 15th.)

I mentioned your weighing the second half more, because you mention it a lot. Sorry, if I assumed it mattered more to you than it does.

It's a long season, and there is a reason baseball plays 162 games and not 81. I get the argument that you are what your record says you are, but the schedule is not balanced (not blaming it on thet, this year) and some teams just have worse luck than others (not saying we had worse luck.) 

I'm just saying the 2024 team seemed like a winning team. Not a playoff winning team, but better than a .500 team. I see MIN had a better record than us, despite a negative run diff, but such is baseball.

Looking at fWAR, we had the 12th best pitching fWAR and 15th best everyday player fWAR. That averages out above average at around 13.5 ranked or at the 55% spot by fWAR.

I'm not saying I have a lot of data that shows we should have won 82-85 games, but they felt like it to me.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

If this is a free forum reply, here's mine: let's call it what it is: it's not just 2024, but the last three abysmal post-trade deadline records (August-Oct)...

'24: 24-30

'23: 22-34

'22: 27-32

Let's call it what it is -- the front office quit on the team and refused to acquire any legitimate reinforcements for the roster. And the young pro athletes -- who all knew, just like the fans, what they needed -- were totally discouraged to be abandoned and went through the motions down the stretch.

 

I certainly think this is a big reason for coming up short, but I was for selling in 2023.

I don't think trading for Garcia, Sims and Paxton was doing nothing. All were doing pretty good in 2024, but other teams added more or ones that did better.

The year we got Schwarber, we almost made the WS, but we also got Robles, Davis, Rios, Iggy and Shaw. These were all guys, we'd be pissed about, had they not did much better than anyone expected.

To me, we need to set ourselves up with winter moves, so we don't need 6 summer moves to work out.

[moonslav59]

I've had points in the off season, where I was really down on the Sox, and I'm still pissed we didn't do more, this winter. At least I went into the off season not expecting anything, at all. That being said, I'm trying to see the bright side while remaining realistic and and somewhat objective.

Before last season began, I thought we might see some exciting things and wondered how many of the good possibilities needed to come true for it to be a winning season. There was a pretty long list, and maybe surprisingly many did come true. Just not enough.

Here is a look at the 2025 everyday players:

Devers is as good a place to start as any.  While he lagged behind in RBIs, he was on his way to a career high in OPS., and was still at .974 on AUG 7th, but the shoulder issue knocked him and the Sox out of it. His last 36 games saw a .573 OPS. Despite this, he still ended up with his second best career OPS+ at 139. At age 28, I'm not sure why it's not reasonable to think his career year could be 2025. He is in peak prime, now. Maybe- just maybe.

To me Casas might be the biggest key to 2025. I can't see him ending up like Bobby Dee, who was still over .800 as he passed his first 550 PAs. Casas is at .830 after 840 PAs (125 OPS+) Health has always been an issue, but the guy averages over 30 HRs per 650 with an OBP nearing .360. It's hard to predict what this 25 year old will do in 2025, but first and foremost, he simply has to get the PAs.

Duran is considered the best everyday player on the team by some, and I can't really argue with his 2024 numbers. Seems strange that 2 years ago, hardly anybody saw much promise. Over his last 1097 PAs (2 seasons,) he has an .832 OPS (126 OPS+) 127 XBHs and 58 SBs. His defense went from bad to near GG almost overnight. I'm not sure how many teams have 3 guys that can end up with an OPS over 125 or 130. I'm sure there are some, but I really like our three man core of 25 to 28 olds.

The next players have way more questions and or very noticeable flaws, but many have some high promise or hopes. Story has been battling injury, and when he has played, sporadically, he's K'd way too often and shown little production, when compared to his many years w COL. His near GG defense, alone could be a big boost to the team, but as one of our few RHBs with history, I think we need something positive on offense. Realistically, I'm not sure we can expect much. I'm wondering if .725+ is all we can really expect, with maybe some hopes for more.

Abreu killed RHPs, last year, but looks to be a platoon bat, until he can show something vs lefties. His defense was really good (GG.) He is also just 25 and was still at .830 on SEPT 8th, last year. Did he hit a wall? Can he hist over .830 for a full season? A 117 OPS+ after his first 475 PAs of his career is not so bad.

Rafaela showed a few glimpses of being able to hit, decently. His defense looked real good, but he made too many unforced errors. He was forced to play SS more than he probably should have, but he wasn't all that bad. Word is, we want him in CF as much as possible, but with Anthony banging on the door, I'm not sure he can stick as a starter or FT'er. He has to bring his offense to the next level. I'm not sure 2025 is the year he does that. He's just 24, so who knows?

Yoshida and Ref coudl end up being a nice platoon DH, but who wants 2 near DH only players out of your 13 on the roster? Ref has to stay, since we suck vs LHPs and he's a top 20 batter in MLB against lefties. Yoshida has been roasted alive, enough, so I'll let that go. He still has a 113 career OPS+ and might have a good year in him,m at age 30.

Wong may have gotten lucky on O, but his D is for real... BAD! I think I spoke about how I felt Wong and McGuire could combine for an OPS over .700. This year, I just hope for improved catcher defense. Is that realistic? Probably not.

The 2B mix of LHB DHam and RHBs Romy & Grissom might combine to give us a nice 2B season, but nothing is for sure, here. It's hard to look at DHam's 92 OPS+, Romy's 99 and Grissom's god-awful 31 as encouraging, but after watching EValdez, Reyes and others botch up the middle infield for a few years, I guess it didn't take much for me to feel better about 2B. DHam & Romy combined for 44 SBs in under 550 PAs, so that makes up for some of the low offense. Both looked pretty good at defense- something we haven't seen in a while.

Okay, we're missing O'Nell's 473 PAs, but we will not be missing the over 475 PAs of EValdez (.633) McGuire (.575) and Jansen (.623.) Between DSmith, Dalbec and Cooper, we have another 450 PAs of sub .650 batting, easily replaced.

Last, but not least, we have Campbell, Anthony and Mayer as total question marks with high ceilings and unknown floors. All are ML ready or very near that.  Our biggest needs on offense are at 2B, SS and a RHB OF'er. Low and behold, Mayer plays SS, Campbell plays 2B and OF and is a RHB, and Anthony plays OF with decent splits on the farm. On defense, we need better catching, corner IF and maybe SS, if Story gets hurt, again. The 3 kids can't help much with C, 1B and 3B, but Mayer could help at SS, and maybe Campbell could play 3B, someday.

Again, we have a lot of questions, but we have a lot of options that don't all need to come up smelling like roses. Counting Narvaez, who I did not mention, we loom to have 16 everyday players for the 13 slots. That may be just enough. It may not be. I'm feeling pretty good about our O. Our D still scares us and is too dependent on Story, but the 3 kids can help, if they get a look.

I'll go over the pitching, tomorrow.

[notin]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

 

To what do you attribute the post-ASB record of 28-38?

 

Umps…

[jdc69]

13 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

So what you're talking about isn't really "playing better", you're just saying we had worse than average injury luck.

I disagree with your recap of the season.  The 2024 Sox were at .500 in mid-June.  They went on a great run for a month that put them about 10 games over.  That was really their only stretch of excellent play.  They came out of the break playing like crap and it all went down the tubes from 

There were some blown saves in that stretch after the allstar break, which is why an improved bullpen is just as important as starting pitching.  If the offense is a strong point then the bullpen should be a priority. 

[Hitch]

I've been trying to think why I've been so down on the Sox recently, seeing as in general I'm pretty excited about the youth coming up, and while we have issues (RH batters, power, a killer in the pen) we blew 18 saves after the All star game last year. Eighteen. Even half that and we'd have been in the play offs. So there's reasons to be hopeful. 

But then it became clear to me reading this thread - it's that I don't believe they'll let the youth come up. I don't believe we will see them until June 1st, at which point, we'll already be behind the curve and playing catch up with an arm tied behind our back. 

So if we don't get any power or RH bats in, we're stuck with what we have line up wise for now, which is not good enough by a long shot and lacking in 31 homers.

I very much hope I'm wrong and they're given the chance, but looking at how this FO operates - I can't see it. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I've been trying to think why I've been so down on the Sox recently, seeing as in general I'm pretty excited about the youth coming up, and while we have issues (RH batters, power, a killer in the pen) we blew 18 saves after the All star game last year. Eighteen. Even half that and we'd have been in the play offs. So there's reasons to be hopeful. 

But then it became clear to me reading this thread - it's that I don't believe they'll let the youth come up. I don't believe we will see them until June 1st, at which point, we'll already be behind the curve and playing catch up with an arm tied behind our back. 

So if we don't get any power or RH bats in, we're stuck with what we have line up wise for now, which is not good enough by a long shot and lacking in 31 homers.

I very much hope I'm wrong and they're given the chance, but looking at how this FO operates - I can't see it. 

We don't trust the Sox FO any more, and for very good reason IMHO.  They've delivered one of the worst stretches of Sox baseball in a long time.  And it all basically started when they traded Betts and went in their new direction.  The new direction has sucked.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

But then it became clear to me reading this thread - it's that I don't believe they'll let the youth come up. I don't believe we will see them until June 1st, at which point, we'll already be behind the curve and playing catch up with an arm tied behind our back. 

So if we don't get any power or RH bats in, we're stuck with what we have line up wise for now, which is not good enough by a long shot and lacking in 31 homers.

I very much hope I'm wrong and they're given the chance, but looking at how this FO operates - I can't see it. 

I agree, and this may be why: the Sox plan to ride their upgraded starting rotation in the beginning of the season, when pitchers are ahead of hitters, and keep the prospects down until another year of control is guaranteed. Then when inevitable injuries thin out the pitching staff, they'll bring up the young lumber to supply more run production to compensate.

This plan is contingent, of course, on how the new starters -- Crochet, Buehler and Giolito (he counts) all fare in Spring Training. If they suck or are hurt or not fully healed, Breslow will have to go get a big righthanded bat. 

As for O'Neill's missing 31 dingers, the front office has gotta be confident they'll get at least that many HRs from Campbell and Anthony combined. After all, Rafaela and Abreu combined for 30 in their rookie year, and they're weren't two of the top-rated bashers on anyone's prospect list, like KC and Roman...

[Bellhorn04]

14 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

As for O'Neill's missing 31 dingers, the front office has gotta be confident they'll get at least that many HRs from Campbell and Anthony combined. After all, Rafaela and Abreu combined for 30 in their rookie year, and they're weren't two of the top-rated bashers on anyone's prospect list, like KC and Roman...

They just need Roman and Kristian to be Lynn and Rice.   

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We don't trust the Sox FO any more, and for very good reason IMHO.  They've delivered one of the worst stretches of Sox baseball in a long time.  And it all basically started when they traded Betts and went in their new direction.  The new direction has sucked.  

Still looking for that third option in the fork in the road?

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Still looking for that third option in the fork in the road?

I think that third fork in the road actually leads to FSG's bank.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They just need Roman and Kristian to be Lynn and Rice.   

Even if they are, there's no Yaz or Rico on the field or in the line-up like in '75 -- veteran leaders who have been through the wars, and even won some of them.

Raffy has his mouth full of seeds, and Story's entire postseason success is winning one Wild Card game. Maybe Beuhler can lead them all in a cover of "Twist And Shout."

[Bellhorn04]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Devers injury hurt. General malaise. The failure of Paxton, Garcia and Sims to even do just okay.

Luis Garcia: 3.44 w SDP '22-'23. 3.71 w LAA in '24. 8.22 w BOS.

Lucas Sims: 3.10 w CIN in '23. 3.57 w CIN '24. 6.43 w BOS.

Paxton did okay, but only gave us 11 IP in 3 GS and  got hurt after 3 starts.

Martin was not nearly as good as 2023, and missed some time. Slaten went on the IL, and the pen was a disaster.

Our starters came down to earth after the first 4-6 weeks, but still did okay (99 ERA- after May 15th.)

I mentioned your weighing the second half more, because you mention it a lot. Sorry, if I assumed it mattered more to you than it does.

It's a long season, and there is a reason baseball plays 162 games and not 81. I get the argument that you are what your record says you are, but the schedule is not balanced (not blaming it on thet, this year) and some teams just have worse luck than others (not saying we had worse luck.) 

I'm just saying the 2024 team seemed like a winning team. Not a playoff winning team, but better than a .500 team. I see MIN had a better record than us, despite a negative run diff, but such is baseball.

Looking at fWAR, we had the 12th best pitching fWAR and 15th best everyday player fWAR. That averages out above average at around 13.5 ranked or at the 55% spot by fWAR.

I'm not saying I have a lot of data that shows we should have won 82-85 games, but they felt like it to me.

You're being a good positive-thinking fan.  Nothing wrong with that.  (I'm kind of testing your optimism a bit, too, I guess, just for the sake of having a debate.)

I do find it a little amusing when we point out all the bad things that happened as if nothing bad like that could happen again.  

e.g. Breslow making those 3 deadline moves that all sucked to an almost incredible degree.

 

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, notin said:

Umps…

[Old Red]

26 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Even if they are, there's no Yaz or Rico on the field or in the line-up like in '75 -- veteran leaders who have been through the wars, and even won some of them.

Raffy has his mouth full of seeds, and Story's entire postseason success is winning one Wild Card game. Maybe Beuhler can lead them all in a cover of "Twist And Shout."

I agree, and Raffy is no leader either, which I believe the position is vacant at the moment.

[Old Red]

46 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They just need Roman and Kristian to be Lynn and Rice.   

I think to start with they are hoping that Casas, Story, and Raffy stay healthy and they get more out of them.

[Bellhorn04]

Personally I can't wait to find out how Raffy's shoulders healed.

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I can't wait to find out how Raffy's shoulders healed.

With the swing he takes it’s either his shoulders, or his back.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

They just need Roman and Kristian to be Lynn and Rice.   

I'm not sure we need them to be that good, but we do need quite a few things to go right.

Many are based almost totally on health, although someone like Story could play 150 games but hit just .650. IMO, that would still give us a boost, but not enough to make a big difference.  (Our SS position hit a surprising .761 in 2024.)

I think we may start Campbell at 2B, in part because the kid has been a monster, but also because our unbalanced line-up. We keep Anthony in AAA for just long enough to gain the extra year of control (mid May?) and Mayer stays in AAA, until needed. If our OF is doing fine, we may hold off on an Anthony promotion even longer.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Personally I can't wait to find out how Raffy's shoulders healed.

Did we ever get a clear diagnosis? If it was structural, like a rotator cuff and needs surgery, at some point, but some issues do heal with just rest.

I'm worried.

[moonslav59]

When you try to take an optimistic view of our pitching staff, while remaining somewhat realistic and objective, we can think that health could be the number one issue with the idea that all of our pitchers under he age of 32 could maybe just repeat or come close to their best single season  years since 2017 (last 7 full seasons.) In this light, here are the best fWAR seasons by our current pitchers.

5.6 Buehler '21 (5.1 in '19 & 3.1 in '18)

5.2 Giolito '19 (4.1 in '21, 2.0 in the short '20 season & 1.8 in '22)

4.7 Crochet '24 (1.4 in '21)

3.9 Houck '24 (2.3 in '21)

3.7 Sandoval '22 (2.3 in '23)

3.6 Fulmer '17 (1.5 in '18 & '21)

2.4 Crawford '23 (1.9 in '24)

1.6 Bello '23 (1.3 in '24)

1.1 Criswell '24

Pen:

3.9 Hendriks '19 (2.7 in '21 & 1.6 in '22) * turns 36 soon

2.1 Chapman '19 (1.8 in '18 & '23) * turns 37 soon

1.6 Whitlock '21 (1.4 '22)

1.5 Slaten '24

There is no way all of these guys approach their season highs in 2025, especially Hendriks, Chapman and maybe Giolito & Fulmer, but I do not think coming close is any wild expectation or wish.

We could see....

Buehler & Crochet: 4-5.5

Houck & Giolito: 3-4.5

Crawford & Bello: 1.5-3

Criswell  0.8-1.3 & Sandoval for a half season of 0.8-1.3

Pen:

Slaten & Whitlock: 1.5- 2.5

Hendriks & Chapman: 1.0-2.0

We won't see all these guys meet these lofty possibilities, but one or two could even exceed the range listed, here, and we might just need 3-4 of our starters to meet these ranges to have a nice season. The pen may need to go 3-4 or 4-4, unless some other pen arm steps up.

 

 

[dgalehouse]

Baseball sure has changed. We have gone from " Take me out to the ball game" to " Steamer's Splits Projections ".  Oofah!!!