Article: Steamer’s New Splits Projections for the Red Sox Aren’t Pretty

[Davy Andrews]

Everyone knows the Boston lineup is heavy on left-handed hitters, but the computers are spitting out some scary numbers.

Here at Talk Sox, we have been writing for months about how the Red Sox need to balance their lineup with a right-handed hitter. We were writing about it before Tyler O’Neill left, and we’re still writing about it now that he’s an Oriole. If you Google the phrase “right-handed power,” the first thing you see is – well, actually the first thing you see is some nonsensical AI garbage – but the point is, we’ve been writing about this a lot. A search on our site makes that very clear:

I have written some of those articles myself, but I’m going to let you on a little secret: I’ve never been all that concerned about the handedness issue. Yes, the Red Sox lineup is overwhelmingly left-handed and yes, it would be great to balance it out some. But even with a lineup this lopsided, I think the goal should simply be to get good hitters in the lineup and figure out the rest later. I’ve never been on board with proposals to trade Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, or Wilyer Abreu just for the sake of balance. I've been more focused on the holes in the bullpen, second base, and catcher.

So that’s my secret. Or at least, it was my secret. On Tuesday, FanGraphs creator David Appleman announced a slew of new features for FanGraphs members. All of the features were focused on the projection model Steamer, and the one that caught my eye first allows you to look up projections for every player based on platoon splits. Naturally, after spending so much time on this issue, I bee-lined for Boston’s projections against left-handed pitching. They're staggering.

Take a moment to think about which Red Sox player you think will put up the best numbers against left-handed pitchers next season. Maybe think up your top three. Got them?

I’m doing this after the fact, but if I had to guess, maybe I would have have said Rafael Devers, Casas, and Trevor Story. I would have been wrong on all counts. In 2025, Steamer projects that the best hitter on the Red Sox against left-handed pitching will be Kristian Campbell, with a 122 wRC+. That’s right, Campbell, who has yet to make his big-league debut, and who has just 85 plate appearances at Triple A, is projected to be Boston’s best weapon against lefties. He ranks first on the Red Sox, and 66th across the entire league, which is to say that the Red Sox don’t have a single player in the top 60. They only have three in the top 200; you would expect the average team to have six or seven.

Behind Campbell, the second and third spots belong to Rob Refsnyder (120) and Vaughn Grissom (109). Those are the only players on the roster whom Steamer projects to be solidly above average against lefties. Devers, Casas, and Yoshida are all projected to be right around league-average. Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are projected to be terrible, but still better than they were last season, because that's how regression to the mean works. Jarren Duran is projected to more or less repeat the 86 wRC+ he put up in 2024. Trevor Story is projected to be nearly as bad a Duran, but that’s mostly because at this point, the projection systems don’t believe in him regardless of the handedness of the pitcher.

These are only projections, and we shouldn’t take them too seriously. After all, the Red Sox were right in the middle of the pack against lefties with a 101 wRC+ last season, and the only hitters they lost were O’Neill and Danny Jansen, who combined for fewer than 600 PAs. Moreover, the Red Sox project to be great against right-handed pitchers again. All the same, these are some truly terrible numbers. I might have to rethink my stance.

View full article

[Bellhorn04]

It's nuts that they've done nothing about replacing O'Neill's bat.

Sure looks like they're counting heavily on Campbell.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's nuts that they've done nothing about replacing O'Neill's bat.

Sure looks like they're counting heavily on Campbell.

Not to mention completely healthy stunning comebacks from: Devers, Story, Casas, Grissom, Yoshida... and, ah what the heck, Hendriks, Whitlock, Fullmer, Giolito, Buehler, Sandoval, and Cora's hair.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox were 17-26 against LH starters in 2024.

O'Neill had a 1.18 OPS against lefties.

Solution: dump O'Neill and don't replace him! 😛

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox were 17-26 against LH starters in 2024.

O'Neill had a 1.18 OPS against lefties.

Solution: dump O'Neill and don't replace him! 😛

We'll have to beat them 1-0 with our stud SP'ers added.

[notin]

7 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The Red Sox were 17-26 against LH starters in 2024.

O'Neill had a 1.18 OPS against lefties.

Solution: dump O'Neill and don't replace him! 😛

Clearly having a hitter with a 1.180 OPS didn’t work.  So why try it again?

[notin]

8 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's nuts that they've done nothing about replacing O'Neill's bat.

Sure looks like they're counting heavily on Campbell.

Don’t sleep on Nate Eaton!!

 

Seriously, don’t.  He’s an outfielder, not a mattress.  I don’t want to need to remind you again…

[notin]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We'll have to beat them 1-0 with our stud SP'ers added.

Clearly Breslow’s plan was to acquire ALL OF THE LHP out there and therefore never have to face any…

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Clearly having a hitter with a 1.180 OPS didn’t work.  So why try it again?

1.181 is what we need!

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Don’t sleep on Nate Eaton!!

Casas hits lefties, okay, so 350-400 more PAs from him could help. Devers has had some seasons with good lefty splits.

500 more from Story is an unknown, but has promise.

Romy and Ref are our two lefty killers.

Grissom and Rafaela are dice rolls.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Clearly having a hitter with a 1.180 OPS didn’t work.  So why try it again?

I know you're joking, but without O'Neill we'd probably have been 14-29 against lefties.

But hey, why would we do anything about it?   Baseball players are expensive!

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I know you're joking, but without O'Neill we'd probably have been 14-29 against lefties.

But hey, why would we do anything about it?   Baseball players are expensive!

This is reminding me of the "Who will replace Renfroe's 98 RBIs" period.

Maybe we sign Grichuk and Robertson and that pushes us over the line by a thread.

[moonslav59]

How's this?

vs LHPs w BOS (unless noted) ...

1.005 Refsnyder '22

.941 Refsnyder '24

.941 Grissom '22 (w ATL)

.879 Romy '24

.877 Wong '23

.847 Story '22

.828 Refsnyder '23

.824 Devers '23

.817 Casas '23

.749 Duran '23

All we need is repeats of specific seasons from the past 3 years, all at once.

Note:

Grichuk vs LHPs: .914 '24. .995 '23, .926 '22

Laureano: .869 '24, .794 '23, .691 '22, .858 '21

O'Neill: 1.180 '24, .794 '23 (79 PAs) .788 '22 (91 PAs)

[Maddie Landis]

The cover photo is fitting for the Lunar New Year!

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How's this?

vs LHPs w BOS (unless noted) ...

1.005 Refsnyder '22

.941 Refsnyder '24

.941 Grissom '22 (w ATL)

.879 Romy '24

.877 Wong '23

.847 Story '22

.828 Refsnyder '23

.824 Devers '23

.817 Casas '23

.749 Duran '23

All we need is repeats of specific seasons from the past 3 years, all at once.

"All we need is for everything to go right."

Pollyannalytics at its finest!

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"All we need is for everything to go right."

Pollyannalytics at its finest!

Actually, not everything. Maybe not even 5 of the 8 players I listed. 4 out of 8 might be enough.

The thing is, it might be just as likely enough of the guys on this list do well vs LHPs in 2025 as it is for O'Neill to stay healthy and rake, again.

O'Neill is such a wild card. We may have just been lucky to draw that card in 2025. If we brought him back, it would be Pollyannic to expect 450+ PAS and an OPS vs LHPs over .900, too. Forget about 1.180.

[Bellhorn04]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Actually, not everything. Maybe not even 5 of the 8 players I listed. 4 out of 8 might be enough.

The thing is, it might be just as likely enough of the guys on this list do well vs LHPs in 2025 as it is for O'Neill to stay healthy and rake, again.

O'Neill is such a wild card. We may have just been lucky to draw that card in 2025. If we brought him back, it would be Pollyannic to expect 450+ PAS and an OPS vs LHPs over .900, too. Forget about 1.180.

I didn't mean to make this all about O'Neill.  I wasn't upset that O'Neill left.  But when you look at the numbers, we were horrible against LH pitching last year and that was a big problem.  And they subtract O'Neill who was great against LH pitching.  And then THEY DO NOTHING ELSE ABOUT OFFENSE.  That's the problem. They're going cheap and hoping on rookies and injury returns.  It's criminal negligence.

And the projections Harmony is posting for our position players and the team overall reflect the negligence.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I didn't mean to make this all about O'Neill.  I wasn't upset that O'Neill left.  But when you look at the numbers, we were horrible against LH pitching last year and that was a big problem.  And they subtract O'Neill who was great against LH pitching.  And then THEY DO NOTHING ELSE ABOUT OFFENSE.  That's the problem. They're going cheap and hoping on rookies and injury returns.  It's criminal negligence.

And the projections Harmony is posting for our position players and the team overall reflect the negligence.

I guess my main issue with this is about relying exclusively on 2024 data, like that is the one driver in projecting future production.

We have several players who have had great or decent success vs LHPs in very recent seasons- just not 2024. There is no reason to think some of them will have better 2025 seasons than 2024, especially Devers, Casas, Story & maybe Wong and Duran. As great as Duran looked in '24, his LH'er splits were better in '23- same with Wong.

It is an issue and concerns me, a lot. I am pushing for a Grichuk signing to help ease the loss of O'Neill, but I also see that just about everyone did worse vs LHPs in '24 than previous seasons. Even ref had better recent seasons and w more PAs. Romy looks like the only guy with a career best season v lefties, and he did not play all that much.

It's a worry, but we did get better in other areas- even way better with the rotation, that was not all that bad, to begin with.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

Clearly having a hitter with a 1.180 OPS didn’t work.  So why try it again?

O'Neill's OPS vs LHP didn't break 800 in '22 or '23. He's not a sure thing. 

[moonslav59]

Being optimistic does not mean the team does well.

I was very optimistic going into 2019.

I was more optimistic in the winter before 2022 than I was before 2021's.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

"All we need is for everything to go right."

Pollyannalytics at its finest!

You may be the first mod to get a temp ban with that kind of language. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

O'Neill's OPS vs LHP didn't break 800 in '22 or '23. He's not a sure thing. 

Exactly, and bad splits by Sox players in 2025 is not a sure thing, either.

Casas is pretty good vs lefties, and Devers has had some very nice seasons vs lefties. Ref and Romy may not repeat their success, but I have more faith if Ref vs LHPs in '25 than O'Neill.

Story is the wild card, along with Campbell & Anthony.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, call me crazy, but I'm taking Tyler O'Neill to do better than his replacement Jack Diddlesquat this year.   

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Well, call me crazy, but I'm taking Tyler O'Neill to do better than his replacement Jack Diddlesquat this year.   

Not sure I like Roman Anthony's new nickname. 

[Bellhorn04]

Yikes, you guys are getting brainwashed by Sam! 🙃

[Bellhorn04]

Copying harmony's post from another thread:

With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East).

That's what the objective data is saying. 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yikes, you guys are getting brainwashed by Sam! 🙃

Just because I don't think O'Neill is worth a big contract? I've also said all along that RHB isn't my biggest priority. What did Sam say that fits this narrative? 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Just because I don't think O'Neill is worth a big contract? I've also said all along that RHB isn't my biggest priority. What did Sam say that fits this narrative? 

You know me, I'm drinking my morning coffee and all fired up.  

But I really I am shocked they haven't added a single bat, when O'Neill was our third best hitter last year.  I think it's ridiculous.

As you have said a number of times, they're putting it on the kids.

 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Copying harmony's post from another thread:

With Max Scherzer reportedly signing with Toronto, the Blue Jays have slipped past the Red Sox in FanGraphs' projected 2025 WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=14

The Red Sox rank ninth in the American League in projected 2025 WAR (and a close last in the AL East).

That's what the objective data is PROJECTIONS ARE saying. 

C'mon man... I still think this team is an 85 win ceiling and am not high on it. Max wasn't pitching in this rotation. Dude's arm is almost cooked. He lost velo last year and it's only going to trend downward. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

You know me, I'm drinking my morning coffee and all fired up.  

But I really I am shocked they haven't added a single bat, when O'Neill was our third best hitter last year.  I think it's ridiculous.

As you have said a number of times, they're putting it on the kids.

Grichuk vs LHP

'24 914

'23 995

'22 926

That's much more consistent than O'Neill. Use him like a Refsnyder that has a better glove. He's a better glove than O'Neill at this point too. 

I'm not trying to hype this guy up because the Sox won't sign him either.